Pregame: Illinois vs Northwestern, Thursday, February 23rd, 8:00pm CT, BTN

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#201      
dbeverly26
RockfordIllini said:
How about this for a hot take: is this our toughest remaining game of the year?

Teams with experienced guards and who force opponents to shoot a lot of 3’s have given us trouble. NW has the most experienced backcourt in the BIG and forces the second most 3’s behind Nebraska.

Edey is of course dominant but otherwise think our strengths (length, athleticism, 1v1 shotmaking) line up pretty favorably with Purdues weaknesses (inexperienced smaller guards with limited athleticism, lack of shot creation).

This will be a tough game, but I think both this and PU are winnable.
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Regardless of matchups or style, I gotta go with playing what is far and away the best team in the league on the road as our toughest game. You've got it exactly right on Northwestern's game plan, though, and it's a bit troubling. Only things I have to say about that is that they have gotten pretty lucky over their recent run with other teams just flat out missing open shots and that can't go on forever. I think we also have to exploit their weakness on the boards to get some bunnies outside of the flow of our offense, and we can't give them anything in transition because they're so awful in the half court.

It is time for us to turn off the luck spigot and send Northwestern limping into the postseason.
 
#202      
IllGuardU
dbeverly26 said:
Regardless of matchups or style, I gotta go with playing what is far and away the best team in the league on the road as our toughest game. You've got it exactly right on Northwestern's game plan, though, and it's a bit troubling. Only things I have to say about that is that they have gotten pretty lucky over their recent run with other teams just flat out missing open shots and that can't go on forever. I think we also have to exploit their weakness on the boards to get some bunnies outside of the flow of our offense, and we can't give them anything in transition because they're so awful in the half court.

It is time for us to turn off the luck spigot and send Northwestern limping into the postseason.
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I’d like to see more Ty one on one.
 
#203      
dbeverly26
IllGuardU said:
I’d like to see more Ty one on one.
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I think this is a game where you want to see a lot of him, especially when Nicholson sits. You're not going to turn them over so you need to get your extra possessions on the boards.
 
#205      
RockfordIllini
dbeverly26 said:
Regardless of matchups or style, I gotta go with playing what is far and away the best team in the league on the road as our toughest game. You've got it exactly right on Northwestern's game plan, though, and it's a bit troubling. Only things I have to say about that is that they have gotten pretty lucky over their recent run with other teams just flat out missing open shots and that can't go on forever. I think we also have to exploit their weakness on the boards to get some bunnies outside of the flow of our offense, and we can't give them anything in transition because they're so awful in the half court.

It is time for us to turn off the luck spigot and send Northwestern limping into the postseason.
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Fair points and NW is definitely due for a luck reversion but any game where our success is dependent on our making outside shots makes me nervous this year.

Hopefully we take care of the ball and force Buie and Audige to be inefficient as they have been historically. If we hold those 2 to 40% or less from the field I’m not sure they can score enough to beat us, but this is definitely a tough matchup for us.
 
#207      
727ill
RML said:
Before we knock NW out of the top 25 tonight, let's all take a minute to reflect on how nice it is for Nance to look at the standings and think: wait, they lost me, one of their best players, and NW is still way better than this UNC team?
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I think they are a better team but not because Nance is a bad player. With Young, Buie, Audige and Nance there were frankly too many cooks in the kitchen on the offensive side. Losing Young and Nance allowed the two guards to lean into their roles better and allowed guys like Nicholson and Barnhizer to be glue guys.
 
#208      
hoopsfan47
dbeverly26 said:
Regardless of matchups or style, I gotta go with playing what is far and away the best team in the league on the road as our toughest game. You've got it exactly right on Northwestern's game plan, though, and it's a bit troubling. Only things I have to say about that is that they have gotten pretty lucky over their recent run with other teams just flat out missing open shots and that can't go on forever. I think we also have to exploit their weakness on the boards to get some bunnies outside of the flow of our offense, and we can't give them anything in transition because they're so awful in the half court.

It is time for us to turn off the luck spigot and send Northwestern limping into the postseason.
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Get a bunch of kids together who have a high BB IQ, dismiss their efforts with a bunch of smack, motivate them even farther along by putting a B1G banner in their sight, sit down your top scorer, give his replacement shooting vertigo and you have the perfect, almost unbeatable opponent.

This NW team appears not to believe they have any weakness which is far more important than any statement to the contrary by any fan.

If our Illini can get away with a win tonight, I will consider it the most significant and important win of the season simply because the Wildcats have displayed a much higher level of consistency and competency than any opponent other than UCLA. There is a lot more at stake than any other game to date. Will we get Jekyll or Hyde?

What I hope to see is nothing bizarre in the way of negatives. Hit some shots, don't throw any passes to the other team or the Orange Crush, and make Buie and Audige work hard to get off every shot. It will be a battle, unless one team suffers the random night....good or bad.
 
#209      
Vinegarben
I don't think it is luck that you beat Purdue, Indiana and Iowa in 3 straight games. 2 of those team beat us [Indiana twice] and we haven't played Purdue which I think is a loss. Best thing is come and play your best game and don't take N.W. lightly. Illini have a history this year of allowing opponents to get in the lane and score. They are 2nd in the Big for a reason!
 
#210      
Mr. Roberts
RML said:
Before we knock NW out of the top 25 tonight, let's all take a minute to reflect on how nice it is for Nance to look at the standings and think: wait, they lost me, one of their best players, and NW is still way better than this UNC team?
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They lost Nance (14.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Ryan Young (9.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg), and the previous year Miller Kopp (11.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg). Makes one wonder about the locker room the last couple of years, because this year's success has been consistent and sustained.
 
#211      
SCMART Illini
Chad Fleck said:
Because the NET is sort of weird. The Big 12 is taking up a ton of space in the top 30 NET which pushes out teams like NW.

This happened to the B1G the last couple of years.
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NW is 7-4 in quad 1 wins. I haven't analyzed the NET calculation, but something really seems off with it. Only a few other teams can top that. The only thing that could be hurting them is their quad 2 games.
 
#213      
purcy51
Illini in Italy said:
I was usually up early anyway, so it was cool to sit in front of the tv at 8am with my morning coffee and a bagel to watch. Of course, this didn't happen too much back then, as Illinois was seldom on tv (This was well before the start of BTN).

I moved there in '92 and it was already the single time zone. Made sense for Alaskans, but Outsiders still struggle with the geographic size of Alaska. I left in 2013 for the Houston area, and finally came home to New England in 2017.
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I was there from 2007 to 2013. One of the many benefits for me were the early game times. Could watch the super bowl, drink alot, and still be recovered in time for work.
 
#214      
altgeld88
We must deny the three from the first possession this evening. Anything less and we're likely in trouble early. I'd like to see the intensity we came out of the gates with in Bloomington last Saturday.
 
#215      
GBIllini
RML said:
Before we knock NW out of the top 25 tonight, let's all take a minute to reflect on how nice it is for Nance to look at the standings and think: wait, they lost me, one of their best players, and NW is still way better than this UNC team?
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After watching Duke this year I think Young would have been a better fit for us than Nance anyway. It would have been nice to have another true post player who stayed close to the basket to help with rebounding, paint presence and scoring. Too bad we didn't pick him up but probably wouldn't have come here anyway.
 
#217      
RabidDawgClassic
RML said:
Before we knock NW out of the top 25 tonight, let's all take a minute to reflect on how nice it is for Nance to look at the standings and think: wait, they lost me, one of their best players, and NW is still way better than this UNC team?
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Last year they won at East Lansing without him. That should’ve been an early red flag to him.
 
#220      
RockfordIllini
Mr. Roberts said:
They lost Nance (14.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Ryan Young (9.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg), and the previous year Miller Kopp (11.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg). Makes one wonder about the locker room the last couple of years, because this year's success has been consistent and sustained.
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Certainly possible chemistry is better, but I think their turnaround is more likely due to 2 factors: 1. Seniors Buie and Audige upping their efficiency and 2. Hiring Chris Lowry. IMHO it’s probably about 70/30 Lowry/efficiency but I could be wrong.

Nance is a good player and I’m sure could have helped them but Nicholson is probably a better fit for what they are doing defensively.
 
#221      
dbeverly26
hoopsfan47 said:
Get a bunch of kids together who have a high BB IQ, dismiss their efforts with a bunch of smack, motivate them even farther along by putting a B1G banner in their sight, sit down your top scorer, give his replacement shooting vertigo and you have the perfect, almost unbeatable opponent.

This NW team appears not to believe they have any weakness which is far more important than any statement to the contrary by any fan.

If our Illini can get away with a win tonight, I will consider it the most significant and important win of the season simply because the Wildcats have displayed a much higher level of consistency and competency than any opponent other than UCLA. There is a lot more at stake than any other game to date. Will we get Jekyll or Hyde?

What I hope to see is nothing bizarre in the way of negatives. Hit some shots, don't throw any passes to the other team or the Orange Crush, and make Buie and Audige work hard to get off every shot. It will be a battle, unless one team suffers the random night....good or bad.
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Don't want to beat this to death but I just don't agree with much of this, and if the bolded is true, I like our chances for the rest of the season.

I've never understood why some folks always want to ascribe wins and losses to some intangible thing or some character issue when so much of it is just luck, or the other team having a bad night, or natural discrepancies in how games are called. You could literally change one call in four games and Illinois would be sitting in second with Northwestern looking up from the crowded field. Having a team like Iowa shoot 3-24 from three has way more to do with what kind of night Iowa had than any self-belief that Northwestern might have had that evening.

You want to know what the big difference between last year's Northwestern team and this year's is? Last year they lost a passel of one- or two-possession games. This year they've won a lot of those. That's one bounce, one call, whatever. If Northwestern wants to believe that it's something they've done, more power to them. But clapping louder will not cause Tinkerbell to live.

I'm sure after writing all of this out that we'll manage to lose this by two points, and folks will be up in arms because we had the ball 94 feet from the basket with four seconds to go and couldn't draw up a miracle play to tie it. But the fact will remain that you could change one call and the outcome would be reversed. That's not to say that what the teams do on the court doesn't matter, but it's not all that matters by any stretch of the imagination. I don't understand why folks are so invested in completely dismissing luck as a factor when it clearly plays a massive role in how a basketball game plays out.

Sorry, I beat this to death. I'll do better next time.
 
#222      
SCMART Illini
RML said:
Before we knock NW out of the top 25 tonight, let's all take a minute to reflect on how nice it is for Nance to look at the standings and think: wait, they lost me, one of their best players, and NW is still way better than this UNC team?
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Nance shot 45% from 3 last year and 28% this year. That's quite a drop. Seems odd that were not the only ones that have players underperform at times.
 
#225      
fuggles
NW is #42 KenPom (7th in B1G), #35 Sagarin (8th in B1G) which suggests their efficiency numbers are not good. So how do they have so many quality wins? idk. Its weird.
 
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