Pregame: Illinois vs Northwestern, Wednesday, February 4th, 8:00pm CT, BTN

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#151      
Chase321
MDchicago said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2018493940593291465

Was curious whether the facts bear this out, and AI says it is true that MSU shoots better in the second half of home games than in the first half. Also true for each of the individual seasons (last two plus this season to date) reviewed.

Overall 3-Year Home Average (approximate, based on box-score aggregation)
  • MSU: 45–47% in 1H → 50–52% in 2H.
  • Opponents: 39–40% in 1H → 37–38% in 2H.
Maybe need to check the rims at Breslin.... Or just tell Keaton, Jake and crew to swish them all that game.
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I think we would need to determine that that isn’t just something that is true generally in basketball before we talk conspiracy.
 
#152      
RabidDawgClassic
MDchicago said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2018493940593291465

Was curious whether the facts bear this out, and AI says it is true that MSU shoots better in the second half of home games than in the first half. Also true for each of the individual seasons (last two plus this season to date) reviewed.

Overall 3-Year Home Average (approximate, based on box-score aggregation)
  • MSU: 45–47% in 1H → 50–52% in 2H.
  • Opponents: 39–40% in 1H → 37–38% in 2H.
Maybe need to check the rims at Breslin.... Or just tell Keaton, Jake and crew to swish them all that game.
Click to expand...

Trent knew what to do. 😉

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#154      
MDchicago
Chase321 said:
I think we would need to determine that that isn’t just something that is true generally in basketball before we talk conspiracy.
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Agree, correlation not equal to causation. A few other nuggets from AI.

* No—college basketball teams do not universally shoot better (higher FG%) in the second half overall. Aggregate trends show slight second-half scoring increases for many teams (e.g., more points in 2H due to fouls, pace changes, or garbage time), but FG% is often flat or even slightly lower late due to tighter defenses, fatigue, or desperation shots.

* No, Kansas, UConn, Duke, and Kentucky do not show the same pronounced second-half shooting percentage improvement in home games as Michigan State has at Breslin (where the differential is often 4–8+ FG% points better post-halftime). These elite programs exhibit strong home dominance overall, but their half-by-half shooting patterns are more variable or balanced, with less consistent evidence of a massive, repeatable 2H surge specifically at home.

* Michigan State's second-half shooting improvement is markedly stronger in home games at Breslin Center than in non-home games (road + neutral) over the last three seasons (2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26).
 
#155      
Piotyr
Anyway, home game against Northwestern tomorrow. Let's win one of these by 30 just because these "keep a clear distance between themselves and their opponent and win by 10 even though their win probability never dipped below 95% the whole game" are kind of annoying.
 
#156      
Perry Range's Van
Piotyr said:
Anyway, home game against Northwestern tomorrow. Let's win one of these by 30 just because these "keep a clear distance between themselves and their opponent and win by 10 even though their win probability never dipped below 95% the whole game" are kind of annoying.
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and.. We have a few guys who could really use some tick.. Not happening @MSU so lets build a lead and develop some guys we may need some minutes from down the road.
 
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