Back to the game, lol. I know some folks love their rankings and predictive analytics and whatnot, but sometimes there is real value in looking at things from more of a subjective or "gut" perspective. So, with that in mind, I put forth two questions:
1) For our game in Bloomington, if we played like we did vs. USC and Indiana played like it did vs. Iowa ... what's the result?
2) If we can have an improved version of our performance vs. USC on Saturday and OSU has a bit of an off game ... what sort of chance do we have?
I think these two questions help me (A) not have blind faith but also (B) make the somewhat reasonable assumption that the Indiana loss was sort of a fluke and shouldn't cause us to be too pessimistic going forward.
1) Regarding that first point, let's remember that those goal line fumbles (one of which wasn't a fumble...) made a huge difference in the outcome of the USC game. If Feagin doesn't fumble, a 14-10 Illini lead at halftime is very likely 21-7, which then becomes 24-7 early in the third quarter. The second fumble (which was legit) flipped the scrip from it being 38-25 Illini with just 3 minutes to go (and 45-22 without the first fumble!!) to the nail biter we saw. All this is to say, I really felt we played well vs. USC (especially considering what a good offense they have), and I think we were simply the better team that day. I think if we were healthy and brought that kind of effort to Bloomington, Indiana never gets on the roll that they do (and we correspondingly never collapse), and that game is much closer. Do we win?? That's a huge stretch, as you can't just take Indiana's impressive performance away from them.
2) For the second point, I'll keep it a little simpler.
---> Illini play like they did vs. Purdue and OSU plays its "usual," and we get blown out.
---> Illini play like they did vs. USC and OSU plays its "usual," and a close game early gets away from us late for a multi-score loss.
---> Illini play like they did vs. USC and OSU has a bit of an off game, and it's a close game for most of it, with OSU's talent and superior defense putting us away late.
---> Illini play better than they did vs. USC and OSU has a bit of an off game, and we truly have a chance late ... but it will take some luck.
In other words, our odds on paper are not great. However, I do think Bret is right and has reason for optimism in recognizing that we have not put it all together for any one game yet this year ... why not Saturday??