Pregame: Illinois vs Penn State, Thursday, March 3rd, 6:00pm CT, FS1

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#76      
Regarding the bolded — the best team certainly wins the regular season more often than the tournament, but I wouldn’t go as far as “pretty much always”. Look no further than the Big Ten this year, where it’s entirely possible Purdue will lose the regular season title to Wisconsin but win the Big Ten Tourney title. Illinois in 2021 was arguably the same (arbitrary choice of win % over W-L notwithstanding).

KenPom wrote a blog post back in 2010 about the same topic. That year, 18 of 31 conference tournaments were won by the conference’s best team. Regular seasons were better, but not much: 21 of 31.

Would be interested in whether anyone has seen any data over multiple seasons, and perhaps considering shared titles.

Oh, and major disclaimer - as much as I enjoyed the BTT title last year, I would MUCH rather win a regular season championship!
The best team may or may not win the regular season. The problem is an unbalanced schedule. We had some scheduling advantages but those that didn't play Purdue twice or at Purdue or at other top teams certainly have an advantage as well as those that don't play Nebraska and other weaker teams only once. I know it would likely mean more loses but I'd be in favor of playing everyone twice during the regular season. Then other than injuries factoring in it would be much more likely that the best team would be the champion.
 
#78      

turnaround3

1st & Daniel
I agree. I'd rather just never see Purdue again. But. I still think there is an outside path to a 2 or 3 seed in Chicago which would require us playing and beating Purdue once more.

1. Wisconsin beats Purdue tomorrow
2. We beat Purdue in the BTT semis
3. Wisconsin doesn't make it to the BTT championship game.
4. We win the BTT championship

In that scenario, I could see us being awarded the best seed in the B1G and getting placed in the Chicago region..which would be advantageous.

To be clear though, I'd rather have a share of the Big Ten regular season title and just keep winning the games in front of us regardless of where we play or what seed we are.
Agree with mostly all of this one just one added caveat, there are scenarios where we could grab the Chicago #2 or #3 that involve not running into Purdue again, however unlikely they may be:

1) Purdue wins tonight, setting up the 3 way B1G tie
2) We go 2-0 and presumably get a two or more likely three way share of the regular season B1G title
3) Purdue gets upset on Friday (*maybe* even Saturday?) of the BTT
4) We win the BTT, particularly if we beat UW on the way to doing so

5-0 down the stretch while both UW & PUR stumble is certainly not among the most likely scenarios, but it exists.
 
#79      
As I read this thread, I had to go back and look at the title, I thought I was reading a post season thread LOL. Anyhow, PSU is the next game. After watching their last two games, it looks like they have given up after barely beating NW at home and getting destroyed by Nebby. We need to not fall back to playing to the talent of our opponent. Attack, get a big lead and hold it. An easy victory will net help us ratings wise but a close game will. If we can get a big lead, I doubt they have the fight to claw back into the game. Never let up though
 
#80      
As I read this thread, I had to go back and look at the title, I thought I was reading a post season thread LOL. Anyhow, PSU is the next game. After watching their last two games, it looks like they have given up after barely beating NW at home and getting destroyed by Nebby. We need to not fall back to playing to the talent of our opponent. Attack, get a big lead and hold it. An easy victory will net help us ratings wise but a close game will. If we can get a big lead, I doubt they have the fight to claw back into the game. Never let up though
Hope to see RJ playing
 
#81      
The best team may or may not win the regular season. The problem is an unbalanced schedule. We had some scheduling advantages but those that didn't play Purdue twice or at Purdue or at other top teams certainly have an advantage as well as those that don't play Nebraska and other weaker teams only once. I know it would likely mean more loses but I'd be in favor of playing everyone twice during the regular season. Then other than injuries factoring in it would be much more likely that the best team would be the champion.
Back in the day when the Big Ten was really 10 teams, they did that. 2 games per week, usually Thur and Sat, for 9 weeks. With 14 teams now, 26 games would be just too brutal.
 
#82      
Yep. Give me a B1G championship every 4 or 5 years and I'll be happy...as long as we're at least competitive most of the in between years.

That bar is set too low. Give us a B1G championship every 4 OUT OF 5 years and we'll be happy. Not being greedy, just restoring order to the Universe.

OK, maybe National Championship every 4 years...
 
#85      
I for one don’t think playing in the Chicago region gives this Illini team any advantage. They’ve played much better on the road. (and the refs seem to be less anti Illini away from SFC)
I'm gonna dispute the "much better on the road." We've lost 3 at home, 4 away and 1 neutral. Our home losses were to Arizona, Purdue and OSU. All very good teams. Our away losses include Maryland and Rutgers, and our neutal loss is Cincinnati (and none of these 3 was even close). We are a good road team, but we still do enjoy a home court advantage.
 
#86      
Is there a way to find out in advance what referees will officiate a game? I would love to know who we get in our last two games.
 
#87      
Realistically our team still has too many flaws to win a national championship. But every game it appears they are addressing them. Hawkins is really helping with our biggest weakness (no 4 or tall 3 on defense). If Verdonk and Payne can play solid defense to spell Kofi that fixes a second problem. If Plummer can play reasonable defense that fixes a third and if Demonte can hit open shots we can win a championship. This also assumes we don't ever have that Ohio state officiating crew again. Just a laundry list of areas the team can grow
 
#88      
For the Penn State game I would love to see the team come out agressive, evaluate the opponents game plan, make in game adjustments and play with energy, poise and hit open shots
 
#89      
I'm gonna dispute the "much better on the road." We've lost 3 at home, 4 away and 1 neutral. Our home losses were to Arizona, Purdue and OSU. All very good teams. Our away losses include Maryland and Rutgers, and our neutal loss is Cincinnati (and none of these 3 was even close). We are a good road team, but we still do enjoy a home court advantage.

I would say being on a neutral code where the fan turnout is 50/50 is probably the worst of all three. I'd rather be fully on the road at that point.
 
#91      
As I read this thread, I had to go back and look at the title, I thought I was reading a post season thread LOL. Anyhow, PSU is the next game. After watching their last two games, it looks like they have given up after barely beating NW at home and getting destroyed by Nebby. We need to not fall back to playing to the talent of our opponent. Attack, get a big lead and hold it. An easy victory will net help us ratings wise but a close game will. If we can get a big lead, I doubt they have the fight to claw back into the game. Never let up though
PSU will be sky high to play us. Not sure they were too excited to play lowly Nebby.
Too lazy to look it up, but beating us would likely be the highlight of their season, so we have to be ready
Win this one and we clinch a 1-4 seed in the BTT and make the IA game a little less important to win.
 
#92      
Expect PSU to show some fight, but we should win by 10-15. That would set up the biggest home game against iowa (if big ten title is on the line) in how long?
1990? Literally the most hostile environment I've ever seen at a sporting event. Iowa came out of the tunnel knowing they'd already lost. (And Ervin Small's three in that game remains a top-five Illinois basketball moment for me.)

Unrelated, but I would soil myself laughing if Wisconsin lost a share of the title by losing to Nebraska.
 
#93      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
I accidentally planned a movie and dinner with my wife for Thursday night. Please forgive me fellow fans. My emotional comments won’t be available for entertainment
Enjoy. Rest assured that a long line of fellow Loyalty devotees stand prepared to fill the void.:LOL:
 
#94      

sacraig

The desert
Expect PSU to show some fight, but we should win by 10-15. That would set up the biggest home game against iowa (if big ten title is on the line) in how long?
Biggest home game against Iowa in approximately 1 year.

 
#95      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
Biggest home game against Iowa in approximately 1 year.

"Home" game v. Iowa would have been in Champaign a year earlier, March 2020. The "Kofi Bestrides Garza As A Colossus" finale before the world fell apart the following week and everything sporting was cancelled..
 
#96      

sacraig

The desert
"Home" game v. Iowa would have been in Champaign a year earlier, March 2020. The "Kofi Bestrides Garza As A Colossus" finale before the world fell apart the following week and everything sporting was cancelled..
Hmm... you are, of course, correct that the game I cited was a home game only in the sense that we were the higher seed in the tournament. However, even the home game from earlier that season was pretty huge: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401263417
 
#97      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
Hmm... you are, of course, correct that the game I cited was a home game only in the sense that we were the higher seed in the tournament. However, even the home game from earlier that season was pretty huge: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401263417
Well, I'm nothing if not pedantic ;)

I'd forgotten about the reg season game last year v. Hawks. I remember that season finale in 2020 because it seemed like the first time in well over a decade when it was the final weekend of the season and our game mattered monumentally. I don't believe my pulse dropped below ~ 150 for the entire second half.
 
#99      

texillwek

🔶🔹🔸🔷
Business suits for home game. Take. Care. Of. Business.
High character or BUST
nicolas cage wink GIF
 
#100      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
The best team may or may not win the regular season. The problem is an unbalanced schedule. We had some scheduling advantages but those that didn't play Purdue twice or at Purdue or at other top teams certainly have an advantage as well as those that don't play Nebraska and other weaker teams only once. I know it would likely mean more loses but I'd be in favor of playing everyone twice during the regular season. Then other than injuries factoring in it would be much more likely that the best team would be the champion.

Absolutely agree about the unbalanced schedules. Without a doubt that has an impact on the regular season champion. BUT, even if we played everyone twice, I still suspect the best team would only win the regular season title around 75% of the time. There’s enough randomness from game to game that even 26 games won’t smooth it out completely.
 
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