Like today the announcers went through our wins vs ranked teams and it included UW, NU, RU
Pregame: Illinois vs Penn State, Thursday, March 9th, 5:30pm CT, BTN
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No one on our side of the bracket scares me. Also, everyone on our side of the bracket scares me.
I just went back and watched the highlights from the Penn State game at Penn State. A few thoughts:
-I am not sure Dain can even take off his warmup Thursday, he certainly can't start. He offered absolutely no resistance in drop this game.
-A lot of Pickett's points were on blown switches. Whether it was Pickett exposing mismatches or miscommunication allowing him to get free runs to the rim, that is how he got a lot of points
-I personally do not want to see anyone guarding Pickett besides Coleman, Rodgers, and maybe RJ, don't get cute with trying to switch screens that he is involved in
-Assuming Epps is out, we will miss his offense for sure, but Penn State is a tough matchup for him defensively. He had a rough game on that end in Happy Valley.
-We fell in love with the 3 this game, we do want to get into a 3 point contest with this team. I think the magic number for acceptable amount of 3s taken is around 20-22, we took 27 and only made 7 of them.
-I am not sure Dain can even take off his warmup Thursday, he certainly can't start. He offered absolutely no resistance in drop this game.
-A lot of Pickett's points were on blown switches. Whether it was Pickett exposing mismatches or miscommunication allowing him to get free runs to the rim, that is how he got a lot of points
-I personally do not want to see anyone guarding Pickett besides Coleman, Rodgers, and maybe RJ, don't get cute with trying to switch screens that he is involved in
-Assuming Epps is out, we will miss his offense for sure, but Penn State is a tough matchup for him defensively. He had a rough game on that end in Happy Valley.
-We fell in love with the 3 this game, we do want to get into a 3 point contest with this team. I think the magic number for acceptable amount of 3s taken is around 20-22, we took 27 and only made 7 of them.
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If I recall in the past, the United Center can sometimes cause trouble for outside shooters who aren't used to it. Maybe it could even the playing field for us a bit against PSU? We're a bad three point shooting team anyway, maybe they'll dip down to our level.
Pickett will get his I'm sure, but if Lundy and Funk are off from three we have a much better chance.
Pickett will get his I'm sure, but if Lundy and Funk are off from three we have a much better chance.
Michigan State actually gets screwed by not playing Minnesota. Had they beaten the Gophers, they would’ve been the #3 seed on the opposite side of Purdue. Had they lost to Minny, they would also be the #3 seed. But by not playing the game, they end up #4 and have to get through Purdue to make the championship game.
I look forward to the challenge of playing Penn St. a third time. They have been a tough matchup for us, but we are the better team. Let's see if we have learned anything over the course of the season and can put a complete game together and start building some momentum going into the tournament.
pruman91
- Paducah, Ky
Well , alrighty then........
If they lost to Minnesota, they would not have been the #3 seed.
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
I wish I could believe that.
Yes. You try to win every game.
I stand corrected. They would’ve been in the 5 seed and we would’ve been 6. I thought that was an odd fluke when I punched it into (obviously incorrectly) the B1G Tournament Bracket Generator
If we see the team that was on the floor in the 2nd half of the game today in all of our remaining games - we will have 10 more wins this year.
202 is an ILLINI section
I am going to hope that Brad got in the ear enough of the league officials that they'll call Pickett for his off-arm shove a couple times early.
It's not rational but it would equal a comfortable win for the good guys.
It's not rational but it would equal a comfortable win for the good guys.
Not the matchup I was hoping for…
Agree with everything you said here. That's a good idea to re-watch the PS game at PS. I totally agree on the reduced 3s. I think there is no question that Andrew Funk can shoot 3s better (at 40.6%) than Matt Mayer (at 34.7%). MM was 4-for-4 on 2s against PU. Matt needs to take the ball to the hole instead of going 1-for-10 on 3s, like last game. We're way better when he does that!
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
One word prediction: REVENGE
I know posters seem overwhelmingly happy with this matchup, but personally, I don't think we match up with them well at all. In our two games against them, Pickett, Funk, Dread, and Lundy all had ridiculous offensive efficiency numbers with Pickett, Funk, and Dread all shooting 50%+ from 3. And while yes, that is statistically higher than their season average, all 5 of their starters shoot the 3 better than any player on our team and they all do it at a statistically efficient rate, which quite frankly is incredible. See below:
Against us:
Pickett- OE: 1.42ppp, 30.5ppg, 70% 2pt, 50% 3pt, 4.5rpg, 7apg, 2topg, 1.5stlpg (39% 3pt on season)
Funk- OE: 1.29ppp, 15ppg, 50% 2pt, 53% 3pt, 2.5rpg, 2apg, 1topg, 2stlpg (41% 3pt on season)
Dread- OE: 1.26ppp, 9ppg, 0/0 2pt, 50% 3pt, 2.5rpg, 0apg, 0topg, 0.5stlpg (37% 3pt on season)
Lundy- OE: 1.22ppp, 15.5ppg, 70% 2pt, 33% 3pt, 7rpg, 2apg, 1.5topg, 1.5stlpg (41% 3pt on season)
Wynter- OE: 0.61ppp, 12ppg, 50% 2pt, 0% 3pt, 1.5rpg, 1apg, 1.5topg, 0stlpg (41% 3pt on season)
In order to beat this team, we're going to need to have someone who can man Pickett 1 on 1 while our other 4 players smother the other 4 PSU spot up shooters. And this is where I think we have a major issue as 1. We don't seem to have anyone on our roster who can man Pickett 1 on 1 (Ty seemed to be the best against him and he still got toasted) and 2. We're not particularly good at sticking shooters from behind the arc (we cheat too far with our help support and we have tendencies to cut under screens).
From a roster perspective, Sencire, TSJ, RJ, CoHawk, and Luke are probably our best perimeter defenders while Ty covers Pickett, but when Epps, Matt, and especially Dain are on the floor, we're going to have issues keeping track of their shooters, and as it is, we're 9th in the B10 at defending the 3 with very marginal stats for a P5 team, whereas PSU is 2nd in offensive efficiency in 2pt and 3pt shooting in the B10.
So I'm really not trying to be all doom and gloom here, but I think there's a fairly good reason they've had so much success against us and it's that they're sort of built to take advantage of our weaknesses on defense and make Dain practically unplayable if he's not matched up against Njie.
I'm obviously going to be cheering for us, but the numbers look fairly daunting in this one. PSU just looks like a tough tough matchup for us unless we can magically get Pickett in early foul trouble (If we're not hitting the floor screaming in agony, or pulling the chair out from under him every time he lowers a shoulder, slams into, or pushes off of us, I don't know what we're doing.
TLDR: I'm worried.
Against us:
Pickett- OE: 1.42ppp, 30.5ppg, 70% 2pt, 50% 3pt, 4.5rpg, 7apg, 2topg, 1.5stlpg (39% 3pt on season)
Funk- OE: 1.29ppp, 15ppg, 50% 2pt, 53% 3pt, 2.5rpg, 2apg, 1topg, 2stlpg (41% 3pt on season)
Dread- OE: 1.26ppp, 9ppg, 0/0 2pt, 50% 3pt, 2.5rpg, 0apg, 0topg, 0.5stlpg (37% 3pt on season)
Lundy- OE: 1.22ppp, 15.5ppg, 70% 2pt, 33% 3pt, 7rpg, 2apg, 1.5topg, 1.5stlpg (41% 3pt on season)
Wynter- OE: 0.61ppp, 12ppg, 50% 2pt, 0% 3pt, 1.5rpg, 1apg, 1.5topg, 0stlpg (41% 3pt on season)
In order to beat this team, we're going to need to have someone who can man Pickett 1 on 1 while our other 4 players smother the other 4 PSU spot up shooters. And this is where I think we have a major issue as 1. We don't seem to have anyone on our roster who can man Pickett 1 on 1 (Ty seemed to be the best against him and he still got toasted) and 2. We're not particularly good at sticking shooters from behind the arc (we cheat too far with our help support and we have tendencies to cut under screens).
From a roster perspective, Sencire, TSJ, RJ, CoHawk, and Luke are probably our best perimeter defenders while Ty covers Pickett, but when Epps, Matt, and especially Dain are on the floor, we're going to have issues keeping track of their shooters, and as it is, we're 9th in the B10 at defending the 3 with very marginal stats for a P5 team, whereas PSU is 2nd in offensive efficiency in 2pt and 3pt shooting in the B10.
So I'm really not trying to be all doom and gloom here, but I think there's a fairly good reason they've had so much success against us and it's that they're sort of built to take advantage of our weaknesses on defense and make Dain practically unplayable if he's not matched up against Njie.
I'm obviously going to be cheering for us, but the numbers look fairly daunting in this one. PSU just looks like a tough tough matchup for us unless we can magically get Pickett in early foul trouble (If we're not hitting the floor screaming in agony, or pulling the chair out from under him every time he lowers a shoulder, slams into, or pushes off of us, I don't know what we're doing.
TLDR: I'm worried.
chrisRunner7
- Spokane, WA
I hope we can double Pickett in the post, leaving the far-side shooter open but rotating. Purdue did that really effectively when they played Penn State at Mackey. But that means very little Dain in the game.
Side note, it's incredible how old Penn State is. Funk, Pickett, Wynter, and Dread are all using their extra COVID years. Lundy is just a regular senior. Their backup center, Michael Henn, is on his fifth team in five years and I don't even know how that's possible in the NCAA.
pruman91
- Paducah, Ky
Well , alrighty then................................# 2 ...............................
Yeah and that is the first order effect. If they had to play short rest they could have also lost another game. If teams could have been 2-9 who knows what would have happened
The reason they didn’t play was valid. However I believe if you can’t make up a game due to Covid it counts as a forfeit. Why would not the same logic apply in this case. It is interesting how a multi million dollar organization like the Big Ten couldn’t have thought of something. The NFL earlier this year had a similar situation with Buffalo and Cincinnati
It will be interesting to see how this tournament plays out with how crazy of a regular season it was. I don’t know every team has it hard for PU can Edey be dominant in 3 straight games or will he be tired. Can we get by PSU. Can Iowa or MD play well away from home. ScUM will be desperate. Should be fun
blackdog
- Champaign
The thing is it's not on MSU because they actually tried to get the game rescheduled. MSU fans are pissed at Rutgers for not being willing to move their game against Minny to help accommodate and then losing the game anyway.
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