But, but, we have NO offense and start THREE of the WORST offensive players in the country.
Pregame: Illinois vs Penn State, Tuesday, January 19th, 7:30pm CT, BTN
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altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
@altgeld, the thing is each loss just pushes our ceiling down, which is obviously hard to take as a fan. We are fine, and we will be fine (I hope). But losing to Maryland really shot ourselves in the foot if we wanted a prayer at a conference title, and losing to OSU squandered a chance at a VERY obtainable quality win that could have righted the ship. Losing to PSU would officially rip away the reputation of this at LEAST being a top 25 team that is going to be playing for a favorable seed, rather than a Tournament berth. Frankly, it's nerve wracking to watch it all unfold like this.
With that said, as you noted, there is so much upside ... and that means hope cannot be given up! If we beat PSU and the boys can gain a little confidence and edge back, I highly doubt they'll have trouble getting up for that Friday showdown with Iowa. Give them our best shot, see what happens and go from there. But we HAVE to beat PSU at home to keep this thing together at all. So, people are naturally kind of preemptively panicking. I mean, if we can lose to Maryland at home, we can definitely lose to PSU at home.
I feel ya' FOTN. I've seen too many seasons at this point, however, to panic, prematurely or belatedly. I take for granted that the baseline expectation in college hoops is bumps in the road, no matter how good anyone seems on paper in November. Better to happen in January than late Feb. When we lost what we did last spring in Feliz' leadership, Griffin's points, and Kipper's, er... Kipacity (I can't leave him out, as I miss the big fella), I assumed that those would be difficult to replace, even with Ayo and Kofi a year older.
IMO what we're seeing is mostly (1) no one having yet filled the tenacity/savvy void that Dre left; (2) Curbelo and Miller learning to grind through a D-1 season and what it takes to perform consistently on an even keel; (3) young guys having to learn the hard way that the only path to a BT title and/or March longevity is defense, period. Our excellent O is a necessary but insufficient condition for success. NW is no Baylor but look at how we defended in that second half in Evanston. Look at how we began to defend in Jan last year when they began to win. So many of those wins were razor thin; at the margin gritty, late-game defense made the difference. And recall where that team was when they played Iowa in the AH for the final game? They were electric. I still wince just thinking of what they lost when the tourney was cancelled. Even with more talent this year, it's difficult to get back to that place.
Miller has on his own replaced Griffin's 8.9 ppg output (at 9.6 so far.) That's great. (After Griffin left, BTW, my buddy who played hoops at Maryland assured me last spring that Miller would never get close to that during his frosh year, Mr. Basketball or no.) Curbelo is there, too @ 8.8 ppg. But the spotty D and turnovers are the marginal difference, it seems to me. Well, that, and it would help if they showed up consistently before the second TV timeout. I really don't know what's going on with that. Look at MSU. What's going on there? They were pre-season #12/13. They're #41 in Pomeroy this evening.
The OSU and MD losses are sunk costs. Yeah, they need to beat PSU. But I'm not worried about things suddenly clicking for the young guys later this month or in Feb. It will truly be a shame if the team sputters through the rest of the season. I don't think they will. Could be wrong, however.
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altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
I dunno. They're #11 in Pomeroy and they earned all of that.
Our Pomeroy and NET rankings are great! In large part because we never get blown out, which is legitimately a good thing. I just don't think for most fans, or players and coaches for that matter, maximizing KenPom rankings is the goal. Just look at last season - Purdue was 6 spots ahead of us on KenPom but was not going to make the tourney because of their 16-15 record. Would you consider that a successful Purdue team? Would you have preferred having a season like that to the season we did have? Our great Kenpom ranking won't be much comfort if we end up bounced in the first round of the tourney (it will be a close game, of course).
I always find it interesting how people beg for minutes for guys we've never seen play/limited sample size. Then they're not ready to play and it's another toy in the garbage
Torvik says Illini #15.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
I'm not an absolutist; I work with the available measures out there. I'll take the predictive value of Pomeroy's ratings as to a team's quality, and its future prospects, over a sportswriters or coaches poll any day of the week. I feel a great deal better about how this team looks right now given that they were, until a couple days ago, a Top 5-10 Pomeroy team than I would if they were a #30 team. I couldn't care less where they're ranked in the AP or Coaches polls.
Would you not say that losing close games is better than getting blown out regularly, and that the former generally attaches itself to successful teams? At least you've got a chance of winning until the end. Pomeroy tells us a lot about this team's strengths (O) and weaknesses (D) and strength of schedule (high). I like where we stand there. #22 in the AP poll or wherever we are says nothing to me.
(BTW, Purdue got blown out plenty last season, not least by the Ilini twice. They ranked highly in Pomeroy b/c of their strength of schedule, #6. MN similarly, which finished below 0.500, #3.)
I would say this is a great thing for a team for whom winning one or two games in the tournament would be a triumph. For a team with the expectations this team has, "having a chance at winning" at home against teams like Maryland really shouldn't be comforting. Sure it's better not to get blown out, but if we were to lose every game we played this season by one point each, would that be better than winning 75% of them by one point and losing the remaining 25% by 20 points each?
To give a real world example, I'd take Michigan's record over ours, despite their one blowout. Anyone here disagree?
Agreed a loss is a loss.
The 5 minute periods where the team is "lost in the ozone" and the opposition races to a 15 to 20 lead has to end
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Deleted member 747840
D
Guest
I'm officially on the effort train for the season. It's not like teams forget how to shoot against us (partial credit to the NW team on that front though) after we decide to start playing. Really, no excuses.
I think part of the problem is mindsight. Whether it be subconscious or not, teams are going to give it there best against us, just like we did against the MSU's of the world a few years back. We dont have the killer mindset that the little number next to our name requires. Gain that, for 40 mins, and we easily could be tied for first in the B1G.
It's like this team needs to be down double digits to start playing like they should.
I think part of the problem is mindsight. Whether it be subconscious or not, teams are going to give it there best against us, just like we did against the MSU's of the world a few years back. We dont have the killer mindset that the little number next to our name requires. Gain that, for 40 mins, and we easily could be tied for first in the B1G.
It's like this team needs to be down double digits to start playing like they should.
GallopingGhost
- Denver, CO
Maybe Vegas didn’t see our last 2 games
The close losses are still losses, but it shows that we don't need to improve that much to be winning these games. The Pomeroy rating is a better predictor of how we'll do going forward then our W-L. I think everyone is disappointed with the season so far, but there's no reason to panic.
I also think the close losses show that this team isn't soft or lacking in fight like a lot of people are saying. They haven't let any team, even Baylor, completely take them out of a game. The issue is really just focus and energy from the tip.
Put up or shut up time. I've been disappointed more than a few times, but not this angry and disappointed about a basketball team. I just want to be "BACK". If we lose this game... oh boy.
Any word on Curbelo looking like Steve Nash??
illinimike
- Wheaton, IL
I mostly agree, but I don't know if I would call it effort. I think this team lacks focus and maturity. They are so uber talented, but often shoot themselves in the foot with free throws and unforced turnovers. Is that a lack of effort? Is it the same thing? That's what has been such a head scratcher for me this year.
Even if the ref's were bad in the 2nd half, the first half is on the Illini and that's what cost them the game.
skyIdub
Winged Warrior
I am worried BECAUSE I’ve watched a lot of Illini basketball. Not so much about tonight, but in general. I did some prelim research and this program has lost to a lower seeded team thirteen times in the NCAA tournament. 13. You’d think we’d have come up with a few upsets over the years to balance that out, perhaps? Twice. Two times we’ve beaten a higher seed. But have been upset 13 times. Where this is headed feels imminent; the same feeling we all got on Saturday when we knew they’d make it close, only to fall a couple possessions short.
B1G opponents not named Minnesota have shot 44% from deep in OUR gym. Falling asleep early does more than putting you behind; it gives dweebs like Ahrens the confidence to take/make what were arguably not very smart shots in that second half. 44% as a team would be good for #1 in the nation, btw - in all games, not just away games. That absolutely has to end tonight. Still I watch, and I hope. 6 - 3 start ain’t bad if you can ignore our particular context. Go Illini.
B1G opponents not named Minnesota have shot 44% from deep in OUR gym. Falling asleep early does more than putting you behind; it gives dweebs like Ahrens the confidence to take/make what were arguably not very smart shots in that second half. 44% as a team would be good for #1 in the nation, btw - in all games, not just away games. That absolutely has to end tonight. Still I watch, and I hope. 6 - 3 start ain’t bad if you can ignore our particular context. Go Illini.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
90% of the time I am hoping that Vegas "doesn't know what they're talking about!" in a way that will favor our Illini ... Vegas knows exactly what they're talking about.
Hoping that is the case here! I am guessing the logic is that our team is too talented to just lose all of our games from now on, and the fact that we have at times displayed genuinely tough and mentally focused play means that eventually we'll come out and get our "righting the ship" game. Why not tonight?? Nothing would soothe my concerns like an easy, double-digit victory due to our guy's intensity and mentally sharp play!
If only we could play with tennis balls...
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