As a coach myself...I value winning. I enjoy winning. Therefore, I enjoy watching this year's Illini and modern basketball.
Pregame: Illinois vs Penn, Thursday, March 19th, 8:25pm CT, TNT
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never know how people come up with this stuff... 2 ranked offense nationally is poorly coached and not good in general
source: trust me, im assistant coach at local junior hs, forgot more about ball than brad ever knew
It is mind boggling. I don't get it, this board never disappoints...
I think the people ranking and seeding both use results in addition to the predictive metrics, which pushes us down. Probably recency too even though they claim they don't. That's why is UConn and Purdue are both 2 seeds and Illinois is a 3 seed. Which is probably the right way to do it to be honest.
Two things stand out to me. When a sentence begins with "Despite their good records," I tend to dismiss the criticism. But upon second glance, when the poster compares the Illini offense to that being used in the NBA, the consensus best league in the world, I realize the poster is actually complimenting the Illini offense, which is more in line with the fact that it measures out to be one of the most efficient in points per possession in history.
100% agree with points 1 and 2. #3 is a little less true this year than in the last couple years, but still not wrong.
Motion offenses continue to get better throughout the year if you keep working at it. This matchup hunting may find it's level faster, but that level is lower almost by definition than motion. It isn't like motion doesn't exploit matchups, it just does so organically in the context of the offense.
Q1 record carries a lot of weight when comparing and seeding similar teams.
I can see it from both sides, I suppose. I think there's a lot of deserved frustration with recent losses and finding something to point at, and there's definitely some hyperbole in saying something like "He’s horrible at making in-game adjustments", but I can see where you're coming from schematically if you've been watching and/or coaching basketball for 40+ years, and you're used to the old school guys like Rick Pitino, etc.
With that said, Brad (and Tyler, and other assistants) have talked about the scheme and objectives ad nauseam, and I personally think the approach makes a lot of sense and is a fully winning strategy most of the time. I think there has been fatigue down the stretch which have caused things to slip, and I think there are defensive adjustments that need to be made to stop a bad bleed that leads to giving up a 15 point lead (especially with guards going nuclear), but otherwise, if the players buy into the keys of the system's success (winning the rebounding margin on both ends and taking high quality shots) for a full 40+ minutes then I think they can go out and beat any team.
I disagree with the notion that the offense is based on iso and jacking up threes. The offensive scheme relies on creating good shots for any player on the court, and for creating second-chance opportunities for any player on the court (not just the bigs). When your bigs are capable of hitting NBA threes, other bigs can't sag off so they get completely taken out of the equation for getting rebounds, so your big guards and wings have a better chance to compete for offensive rebounds. This is just one argument for 5 out and I could make more if I had time. With that said I can understand why someone would disagree with it, watching other teams be successful historically in other systems.
Regarding late-game adjustments, at some point if you're committed to a system, then it's a slippery slope trying to adjust your way out of a momentum swing. If any adjustments need to be made, its adjustments to get defensive stops. I think the problem with trying to adjust your way out of a momentum swing is that you can ultimately deviate from what makes the offense so high-powered in the first place. I think of it as investing in a way. If the best investors decided to completely change their conviction and begin selling off positions to counter a swing in the market, often you can find yourself in a deeper hole than if you stuck to your original thesis. With that said, there are ways to hedge losses (which I think the team does, and it has kept us at least in games to get to OT).
This got longer than I wanted it to but I'm still cautiously optimistic on the deep run potential for this team if they've prepped and rested correctly, and this is the most time to rest and prep since the holidays where they subsequently went on a 12 game run. At the end of the day, this team is successful as it is because Brad and co's commitment to modernizing the approach, for better and sometimes for worse.
yeah i agree with pretty much all of this, just have issues with teh walls of text that only criticize / no positives and then summarize by essentially claiming they know more and are better coach than underwood
obviously what you wrote here is a much more balanced take than what i was responding to
You can always get better, and a lot of their offensive efficiency has come from how well they rebound the ball off the offensive glass. They'd still be 6'8" in a motion offense as well.
I don't think the poster was implying they should change their scheme on March 17. More so they have run an AAU style iso offense for several years and it stagnates in big games against physical defenses. If we weren't an elite offensive rebounding team this offense wouldn't have such incredible metrics. If they had a NCAA average of 30.6% offensive rebound percentage their overall offensive efficiency would drop to like ~124 holding everything else constant. That is still good, but hardly elite. That would put them ~ in the high teens to #20.
That's the thing that is frustrating with Underwood. He (and staff) is very good at coming up with innovative approaches in some things (Tranfser recruting early on (getting old, staying old), European Recruiting, going against the current trend of not crashing offensive glass when it suits the team, etc.). In other areas, the same issues are ever present (difficulty defending pick and roll, stagnant offense, end-game coaching, poor play out of timeout, pissing off one good freshman each year and having them leave, etc.).
I don't think that Illinois could fire Brad and hire someone better (especially with his infinity contract). But he should be able to get better at the areas that are weaknesses while still maintaining the positives.
I think Brad’s been great. We just need a couple more tourney runs which I think we will get sooner or later. Look at some of the epic upsets Painter suffered before finally cracking through a F4. Yes we didn’t finish the year strong, but end of season fatigue/let up are real. We aren’t the only team who stubbed our toe down the stretch. I can name the following just off the top of my head:
1. 2 seed Houston who so many people are terrified of, lost 3 in row in mid February. They did lose to Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas, but still 3 in row.
2. 2 seed Purdue looked worse than us down the stretch before seemingly righting the ship in the BTT (with a couple of favorable/lucky draws).
3. 4 seed Nebraska really hasn’t looked the same since Mast got sick, suffering multiple 15+ point losses
4. 1 seed Florida looked to be rolling winning 12 in a row but then got absolutely pasted by a Vandy team that had lost 3 of 4 as recently as late febrauey
5. 2 seed UConn suffered an awful loss to Marquette and then got blown out in the big east tournament by the only other decent team in their league.
And those are all top 4 seeds! Outside of Michigan we had leads in 4 of our 5 losses, including 3 double digit leads. Even though our shooting and offensive efficiency has dropped, it still feels like we gave away 3 of our 5 losses and we had a really good chance to win the 4th one. Really feels like some combination of lapse in focus and/or physical and mental fatigue that probably came with the realization that we were going to fall short of the BT Title.
Now I don’t love a pattern of letting up going into a single elimination tournament where anything can happen. But it’s not like we’ve been run out of the gym in our losses. We are still right there, a F4 contender hiding in plain sight. We get away from the physicality and scouting of the BIG and I think it’ll do us a world of good. We still present matchup problems for most teams. Let’s see what happens this year before evaluating Brad’s ceiling. This is an important chapter in the story yes but the chapter hasn’t been written yet. Go Illini.
1. 2 seed Houston who so many people are terrified of, lost 3 in row in mid February. They did lose to Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas, but still 3 in row.
2. 2 seed Purdue looked worse than us down the stretch before seemingly righting the ship in the BTT (with a couple of favorable/lucky draws).
3. 4 seed Nebraska really hasn’t looked the same since Mast got sick, suffering multiple 15+ point losses
4. 1 seed Florida looked to be rolling winning 12 in a row but then got absolutely pasted by a Vandy team that had lost 3 of 4 as recently as late febrauey
5. 2 seed UConn suffered an awful loss to Marquette and then got blown out in the big east tournament by the only other decent team in their league.
And those are all top 4 seeds! Outside of Michigan we had leads in 4 of our 5 losses, including 3 double digit leads. Even though our shooting and offensive efficiency has dropped, it still feels like we gave away 3 of our 5 losses and we had a really good chance to win the 4th one. Really feels like some combination of lapse in focus and/or physical and mental fatigue that probably came with the realization that we were going to fall short of the BT Title.
Now I don’t love a pattern of letting up going into a single elimination tournament where anything can happen. But it’s not like we’ve been run out of the gym in our losses. We are still right there, a F4 contender hiding in plain sight. We get away from the physicality and scouting of the BIG and I think it’ll do us a world of good. We still present matchup problems for most teams. Let’s see what happens this year before evaluating Brad’s ceiling. This is an important chapter in the story yes but the chapter hasn’t been written yet. Go Illini.
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
We've had 5 seasons in that 10 year span where we made the tourney. So this isn't too surprising. We're averaging 1.2 wins per year we've made the tourney, so still not great but would put us in this graphic if extrapolated!
sorry if asked and answered, but didn't see it with search function, but do we know what sections Illinois's tickets are in?
Illini fan in Tennessee
- Eastern Tennessee
Don't overlook Penn. Illinois should win this game going away but you can't take anything for granted. Penn has nothing to lose.
We’re still #1 in the nation in points per 100 possessions on the year:
YES, I’m aware Purdue jumped us in Kenpom, but leading the nation in points per possession is also quite an indicator.
Also, please take my word for it, we were 126.6 BEFORE the Michigan game — which is insanely good.
However, it’s in these last 4 games (Michigan / Oregon / Maryland / Wisconsin) that our offense has slumped, as we’ve only cracked 1.2ppp ONCE in that 4 game stretch (Maryland).
Don’t quote me on this, but I’m pretty sure we were over 1.2 in every game from UConn to UCLA — that’s 3 months — outside of the Michigan State game.
It’s why I think this Penn game is very important to get right as far as guys’ confidence, 3pt shooting, etc.
Also, just as P.S. — here’s where last year’s Duke team (which set the Kenpom record for highest offensive efficiency) ranked in points per 100 poss:
Here’s 2024 UConn:
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
Does this fan base need a FF run more than any other CBB fan base in America?
I think yes, but I can’t show my work.
Mostly because there’s no work. I just decided.
I just can’t @Fighter of the Nightman today.
I think yes, but I can’t show my work.
Mostly because there’s no work. I just decided.
I just can’t @Fighter of the Nightman today.
If Mich St and Purdue lost their first games then probably. But no way with what Purdue did because of how close all our metrics were. I think the committee just decided they would reward the 2 seed to the team that went the farthest between us, Purdue, Michigan State, and even Nebraska.
103,104,206 for ifund
Where do we actually fall? 6 conference teams ahead of us so we're at least 7th. I think its fair to ask questions about how this is when we've had more conf wins in the past 7 years than all 6 of those teams. That said I don't know in what world Brad is a "poor coach", but not this one. He's got a lot on the positive side of the ledger, but a couple big ones on the negative side as well. That's why we're a 3 seed who is worried about getting to the S16. Our defense is loads better than last few years, but still well short of being built for March. When clicking our offense is built for March, but when the 3s aren't falling, we lack a good plan B.
.....But I still love selection Sunday so much better as a 3 seed than waiting at the lasagna table for the NIT invitations!
IMHO, the guys come out and make a statement. The players only meeting was probably most important to getting back on track. The next game they lose is the last they play together. If they don't lose, it is the NC, a team accomplishment to go along with the individual awards being earned. The last Illini basket of the game: an AJ Redd 3!
It's important to remember that we missed the first 4 tournaments this graphic is referencing, so we have no wins from 2015-2019 to add to our total. It would be more interesting to see the total wins from the last 6 tournaments when this year's is over. That would cover the 7 seasons that our conference leading wins total comes from.
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