Pregame: Illinois vs Purdue, Saturday, October 12th, 2:30pm CT, FS1

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#501      
Mr. Tibbs
CaptainCrutch said:
I was at that NW game sitting by, I think, the goofiest guy ever. He had all Notre Dame gear on, and it was just me and him sitting in the freezing rain with basically nobody around. It was gross out there and there was no hope for a passing game. He started by saying he cheers for Notre Dame since NW never gives them anything. Ended the day muttering to himself “I think we’ve finally got a quarterback.” Like, in disbelief that Andrew Marty was gonna save NW lol

But yes, this game terrifies me too. Pre-season I picked this as a letdown game that feels about as heartbreakingly Illinois as possible. We’re looking forward to Michigan and we think this’ll be a win. Ryan Walters just wipes the floor with us and is *just as smug as he can be*, pumping his fists at interceptions and sacks, acting like he’s the reason we were ever any good. And we just have to … live with it. We doubt for a full seven days if we actually mean anything.

…

Then we beat Michigan, and we end 8-4, and it feels good.

…

But tomorrow hurts. I’ve seen this too much. I know how Memorial Stadium gets at the slightest whiff of the carriage inevitably turning back into the pumpkin. Illinois thinks they’re good right now. We all think this is trending in the right direction. BUT. This is the kind of nervous energy that turns into a full-on breakdown immediately if we let them get up/bust a few big plays early.

I am nervous. I want a win badly, and I do expect one, but it tells a lot that finding out Hudson Card isn’t playing scared me for the unknown. “What if this redshirt freshman Mertz’s us” is what I thought too. I’m nervous as heck.
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come back from the ledge

I think we cover tomorrow
 
#502      
RockfordIllini
I am also expecting a too close for comfort game that we ultimately win. This is Purdue and Walter’s’ Super Bowl. All of those Purdue coaches/players have pride and they will come out with a better effort than they did against Wisconsin. It wouldn’t shock me if this is the best game they play all year. Plus, we’ve struggled with hard running backs like Mockobee this year. If there’s such a thing as a “bad” matchup against a sub100 ranked P4 team, this is it.

But, Bielema has a good record in bye weeks since he’s been here, and a good record in revenge games since he’s been here. Our OLine hasn’t been great so far but historically they’ve gotten better as the season’s gone on. I’m hopeful they fixed some things during the bye week and I suspect we will see a lot more Brandon Henderson this game.

To me the baseline is Central Michigan. If we have that effort or better, take care of the ball and continue our excellent special teams play, I don’t think Purdue can beat us. We just need to avoid beating ourselves with turnovers, penalties and special teams miscues.

I think we once again struggle to contain the run, but ultimately do enough to push out to a 2 score lead in the 4th quarter. Purdue gets a late touchdown and has a drive to tie it in the last 2 minutes but we get a stop. 31-24 Illini.
 
#505      
ChiefGritty
#506      
SuperintendentChalmers
ChiefGritty said:
If we're the third biggest liability but Purdue +22 is the second biggest line people are betting, ours must be the most bet one by a mile.

On a huge weekend like this that's....kinda weird? Why is all the action on our stupid little game?

EDIT: First reply agrees with me

https://twitter.com/x/status/1844821788800303494
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So strange. Even if Purdue is awful, BB doesn't really have a run-up-the-score system or attitude. Plus, the next two games are huge, he's not going to expose new wrinkles just for the sake of hitting 50 or whatever. If we get up two scores, I could see the game becoming an exercise in controlling time of possession through the rushing game.
 
#507      
Illiniam1984
What’s with some of the doom and gloom on here? Every expert prediction that I have read has Illinois winning by a decent margin or a blow out. I understand that you never know what can happen in college football but is it the history we have had against them?
 
#508      
Illini2010-11
SuperintendentChalmers said:
So strange. Even if Purdue is awful, BB doesn't really have a run-up-the-score system or attitude. Plus, the next two games are huge, he's not going to expose new wrinkles just for the sake of hitting 50 or whatever. If we get up two scores, I could see the game becoming an exercise in controlling time of possession through the rushing game.
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Purdue is averaging about 10 points per game with their starting QB. It is probably more about assuming that Purdue will struggle to get to 10 points, and that Illinois should be able to score at least 35 points. Purdue is allowing around 46 points per game against power conferences. Heck they gave up nearly 600 yards of offense last week against Wisconsin (over 200 on the ground). I believe the betting market is looking at Illinois hitting 35 than hitting 50 points, as the underlying assumption is that Purdue will only score about 10-14 points (hence the spread increasing to -22 and the total shrinking slightly to 48.5).
 
#509      
ChiefGritty
Illiniam1984 said:
What’s with some of the doom and gloom on here? Every expert prediction that I have read has Illinois winning by a decent margin or a blow out. I understand that you never know in college football but is it the history we have had against them?
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That, and very rarely does a major conference football team play dead for all that many games in a row. Doesn't mean Purdue will win, 1-11 is totally possible for them, but it is a near-guarantee that a superficially better performance that puts a scare into somebody is coming. That's college football, it is ever thus.

And then you layer on, the forward looking outlook for the Illinois football program winning (even in ugly fashion) versus losing this game is VASTLY different.

You just haven't been an Illini fan very long if you can't see a banana peel for the Bielema Era in the road here. This kind of thing has happened to us a ton.

(And plus spoiling the Michigan game. Lots of warning lights flashing.)

It feels like a guarantee to me that there's going to be a weird negative vibe early in this game, it just has that shape to it because of the new OC, backup QB, fans staring into the abyss, etc. One first down has a way of creating a confidence boomlet for a team like that (we've benefited from that many times). 60 minutes of football should be more than enough to overcome that given the quality of football these two teams have played so far. And yet....
 
#512      
Illini2010-11
illini0440 said:
Illinois a lot…..Purdont a little
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#513      
OrangeBlue98
ChiefGritty said:
That, and very rarely does a major conference football team play dead for all that many games in a row. Doesn't mean Purdue will win, 1-11 is totally possible for them, but it is a near-guarantee that a superficially better performance that puts a scare into somebody is coming. That's college football, it is ever thus.

And then you layer on, the forward looking outlook for the Illinois football program winning (even in ugly fashion) versus losing this game is VASTLY different.

You just haven't been an Illini fan very long if you can't see a banana peel for the Bielema Era in the road here. This kind of thing has happened to us a ton.

(And plus spoiling the Michigan game. Lots of warning lights flashing.)

It feels like a guarantee to me that there's going to be a weird negative vibe early in this game, it just has that shape to it because of the new OC, backup QB, fans staring into the abyss, etc. One first down has a way of creating a confidence boomlet for a team like that (we've benefited from that many times). 60 minutes of football should be more than enough to overcome that given the quality of football these two teams have played so far. And yet....
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I know this is just one step above "Captain Obvious" territory here, but I see this game going only one of two ways.

1) Purdue hangs tight early, and we see a real nailbiter for 60 minutes, OR
2) Illinois sprints out to a 17-0 lead or so in the first three possessions, Purdue rolls over, and it ends up something like 51-7.

I don't see a scenario where there's an in-between, but I've absolutely been wrong before predicting college football games.
 
#514      
JFGsCoffeeMug
SuperintendentChalmers said:
So strange. Even if Purdue is awful, BB doesn't really have a run-up-the-score system or attitude. Plus, the next two games are huge, he's not going to expose new wrinkles just for the sake of hitting 50 or whatever. If we get up two scores, I could see the game becoming an exercise in controlling time of possession through the rushing game.
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I guess we'll see. I think Bielema wants to send a message.
 
#515      
FGCUIllini
ChiefGritty said:
If we're the third biggest liability but Purdue +22 is the second biggest line people are betting, ours must be the most bet one by a mile.

On a huge weekend like this that's....kinda weird? Why is all the action on our stupid little game?

EDIT: First reply agrees with me

https://twitter.com/x/status/1844821788800303494
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I'm not a gambler, so I have an honest question for those who are.

How would/should one bet on this? Team + Points, O/U? I'm honestly curious if I should make my first ever bet on this game ($10), lol but need to know how/who/etc. Haha
 
#516      
ChiefGritty
OrangeBlue98 said:
I know this is just one step above "Captain Obvious" territory here, but I see this game going only one of two ways.

1) Purdue hangs tight early, and we see a real nailbiter for 60 minutes, OR
2) Illinois sprints out to a 17-0 lead or so in the first three possessions, Purdue rolls over, and it ends up something like 51-7.

I don't see a scenario where there's an in-between, but I've absolutely been wrong before predicting college football games.
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The case I've got in my head is more like 10-0 Purdue after 8 minutes, long Illinois touchdown drive makes it 10-7, reaching the "is this team actually good" moment of truth, down one path is a 41-13 victory, down the other is a back and forth loss that starts an avalanche on the season.

FGCUIllini said:
I'm not a gambler, so I have an honest question for those who are.

How would/should one bet on this? Team + Points, O/U? I'm honestly curious if I should make my first ever bet on this game ($10), lol but need to know how/who/etc. Haha
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Well, if you're in the State of Illinois you aren't allowed to bet on it so be aware of that.

Purdue just seems like such a volatile locker room right now I want nothing to do with them as a bettor.
 
#519      
SampsonRelpenk
ChiefGritty said:
The case I've got in my head is more like 10-0 Purdue after 8 minutes, long Illinois touchdown drive makes it 10-7, reaching the "is this team actually good" moment of truth, down one path is a 41-13 victory, down the other is a back and forth loss that starts an avalanche on the season.
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I see that vision, but what would a joyless, say 28-17 win do for ya?
 
#520      
mhuml32
FGCUIllini said:
I'm not a gambler, so I have an honest question for those who are.

How would/should one bet on this? Team + Points, O/U? I'm honestly curious if I should make my first ever bet on this game ($10), lol but need to know how/who/etc. Haha
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First rule of sports gambling: Never bet on games where you are already emotionally invested.
 
#522      
ChiefGritty
SampsonRelpenk said:
I see that vision, but what would a joyless, say 28-17 win do for ya?
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I'd bite your arm off to lock that in this instant.

This is just don't lose territory. At Eugene is take your medicine and fly home. Michigan will be fun come what may, it's a nothing to lose game.

Then the last four comes and that's where the question of how good we actually are is going to come to the fore.
 
#523      
superfan
It wouldn’t be college football if fans didn’t wring their hands about inferior opponents and over-estimate their chances against powerhouses. But make no mistake, Purdue has a visit to the woodshed coming tomorrow and BB doesn’t like to be kept waiting.
 
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