Pregame: Illinois vs Purdue, Saturday, October 12th, 2:30pm CT, FS1

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#376      
Curbelo Fanboy
illiniwil said:
Coaches talk about running the football and it irritates the hell out of me.
At the college and professional levels against the best competition, offenses
need to do what the defense isn't expecting. Running and passing in a
balanced attack is ideal, but this Illinois team is not going to effectively run
the ball against Penn state, Ohio State, Michigan (maybe Iowa) when they
know its coming. You can create "balance" by throwing the ball, getting the
defense to back off a bit and running when the pass is established. Yes, we
should be able to run the ball effectively against Purdue this week, but the
rest is just coach speak. Look at the Michigan offense, you can be loaded with
talent, but when the passing game is ineffective you are screwed.
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One of the universal truths of college & pro football. More evident at the nfl level but to consistently win against quality opponents you have to have a QB that can make the throws even when everyone in the stadium knows what is coming. Don't have to throw for 400 yards, but have to make plays thru the air to convert the 3rd & 8, 3rd & 7 type scenarios into a fresh set of downs. Some variance of course based on how good your defense is but the QB is the key the vast majority of time.
 
#377      
Illini2010-11
ChiefGritty said:
Sure, but the thing is, we can't forget how bad the situation got once again in November 2018 when we're losing 63-0 to Iowa on Senior Day.

Hypothetical Other Better Coach is making some progress by then. We had to wait three more years.

(Incidentally, that is the most points Iowa has scored since Hayden Fry poured 66 on Northern Iowa in 1997, featuring LB coach Bret Bielema)

(Okay more research, that's Iowa's most points and biggest win in a road conference game since winning 64-0 at 1981 Northwestern, very possibly the worst major college football team of all time.)
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No question Lovie should have been given the slip during the 2018 season. That was the game where I gave up completely on the Lovie regime, though it should have been after the Penn State game that year. The biggest blunder of Whitman's tenure was maintaining Lovie after that season. Season 3 should show progress; it clearly did not, and the defense was historically bad. Unfortunately, Lovie was retained and had a mirage bowl season in 2019, which meant he parlayed that "success" into another lost season in 2020.

However, I cannot buy into the hypothetical game you suggest for all the points I made prior. I also think the recruiting impacts of a proposed lame-duck Cubit 2016 season would have made it overly challenging for a new coach to get any positive traction (in today's landscape it would be easier given the way the portal works now). That is why I despise these hindsight analyses. Every recruit knew the Lovie name, so it partially helped through 2016 season. We may have been behind two seasons of recruiting had Cubit been retained. The Lovie hire was certainly a major risk, but one that I believe Whitman had to make given the contract situation of Cubit he inherited from the administration.

The Lovie hire failed on the field as a fact, but the program foundations were piggybacked off the hire. The mistake was sticking with Lovie through 2020 season (should have cut losses after 2018 season), not hiring him in the first place.
 
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#378      
ChiefGritty
Illini2010-11 said:
No question Lovie should have been given the slip during the 2018 season. That was the game where I gave up completely on the Lovie regime, though it should have been after the Penn State game that year. The biggest blunder of Whitman's tenure was maintaining Lovie after that season. Season 3 should show progress; it clearly did not and the defense was historically bad. Unfortunately, Lovie was retained and had a mirage bowl season in 2019, which meant he parlayed into another lost season in 2020.

However, I cannot buy into the hypothetical game you suggest for all the points I made prior. I also think the recruiting impacts of a proposed lame-duck Cubit 2016 season would have made it overly challenging for a new coach to get any positive traction (in today's landscape it would be easier given the way the portal works now). That is why I despise these hindsight analyses. Every recruit knew the Lovie name, so it partially helped through 2016 season. We may have been behind two seasons of recruiting had Cubit been retained.

The Lovie hire failed on the field as a fact, but the program foundations were piggybacked off the hire. The mistake was sticking with Lovie through 2020 season (should have cut losses after 2018 season), not hiring him in the first place.
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For the record I would also hire Lovie again if forced to choose between that and the Mystery Box.

Just expressing the counterarguments.
 
#379      
TheChief4Life
We don’t have Bielema if not for Smith. Both because of the positives and negatives that came along with the Smith hire/tenure (not one or the other).

Also, I understand that many people didn’t “like” the Smith hire at the time, but to pretend that that hire was anything other than astounding at the time of the hire is sort of intentionally deceiving yourself.

But as others had said, the biggest thing he did was bring a calm to the brewing storm that likely would have destroyed our program.

We can argue whether he was retained two years too long, but there was nothing short of a homerun at the time.
 
#380      
Scoregasm
ChiefGritty said:
Sure, but the thing is, we can't forget how bad the situation got once again in November 2018 when we're losing 63-0 to Iowa on Senior Day.

Hypothetical Other Better Coach is making some progress by then. We had to wait three more years.

(Incidentally, that is the most points Iowa has scored since Hayden Fry poured 66 on Northern Iowa in 1997, featuring LB coach Bret Bielema)

(Okay more research, that's Iowa's most points and biggest win in a road conference game since winning 64-0 at 1981 Northwestern, very possibly the worst major college football team of all time.)
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I have suppressed that from my memory. PTSD.
 
#382      
Illinivek23
Illini2010-11 said:
No question Lovie should have been given the slip during the 2018 season. That was the game where I gave up completely on the Lovie regime, though it should have been after the Penn State game that year. The biggest blunder of Whitman's tenure was maintaining Lovie after that season. Season 3 should show progress; it clearly did not, and the defense was historically bad. Unfortunately, Lovie was retained and had a mirage bowl season in 2019, which meant he parlayed that "success" into another lost season in 2020.

However, I cannot buy into the hypothetical game you suggest for all the points I made prior. I also think the recruiting impacts of a proposed lame-duck Cubit 2016 season would have made it overly challenging for a new coach to get any positive traction (in today's landscape it would be easier given the way the portal works now). That is why I despise these hindsight analyses. Every recruit knew the Lovie name, so it partially helped through 2016 season. We may have been behind two seasons of recruiting had Cubit been retained. The Lovie hire was certainly a major risk, but one that I believe Whitman had to make given the contract situation of Cubit he inherited from the administration.

The Lovie hire failed on the field as a fact, but the program foundations were piggybacked off the hire. The mistake was sticking with Lovie through 2020 season (should have cut losses after 2018 season), not hiring him in the first place.
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The fact that Lovie didn't make the effort to even hire a DC was massively disappointing, on top of the poor results on the field for a long-time NFL defensive guy. Frustrating to watch week in and week out. Glad the players hung in there until BB got here.

Gotta beat PU this weekend...
 
#384      
Illini2010-11
RIP_Chief_2003 said:
Ummmmm, Illibuck is for playing Ohio State lol...
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Jack Nicholson Yes GIF
 
#386      
mhuml32
Ramrod2010 said:
Haven't seen it mentioned, but I'm pretty sure the spread moved from -19.5 to -21.5 over the last 24 hours for those that are intrigued by those things.
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Was Illinois -19 this morning on most books, now it's -22.5. That's a big shift for mid-week and no public news. Something is swirling in private channels.
 
#387      
ChiefGritty
mhuml32 said:
Was Illinois -19 this morning on most books, now it's -22.5. That's a big shift for mid-week and no public news. Something is swirling in private channels.
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Didn't they already kick a kid off the team this week?

There are obvious culture problems there, this is not a talentless team.
 
#390      
mhuml32
Doing some digging around, this will be the largest spread for an Illinois conference game (where Illinois is favored) in at least 28 seasons. Not easy to pick out possible games that get that high in potential spreads. It could go all the way back to 1991 v. Minnesota (33 seasons)?


Pretty uncharted waters.
 
#392      
Bbuck21
spotter said:
While Lovie ended in a disappointing thud, I would argue that Whitman needed to bring in a calm, stabilizing and professional leader for the football team, after the mayhem Beckman caused and Lovie was just that. The football program was taking on water faster than the Edmond Fitzgerald and Lovie needed to stabilize things and bring the ship safely into dry dock.
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or the Gordon Lightfoot?
 
#393      
DeonThomas
I'll take Purdue and the 22.5 points this week. I'll also take over the 49 total pts. I watched the entire Penn State game and I saw a distinct talent difference on the field that night. We have a nice ball club, but I don't think we're New Year's Day good quite yet.

30 ILL
21 PUR

(4-1 against the spread; 5-0 in picking the correct winner).
 
#395      
alaskaillini
BretMyBeachHouse said:
Interesting side bar to the pregame thread.

I'd say one aspect of the Lovie hire was it demonstrated that we had an AD with massive stones. That has paid off in many ways since.
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Yes. the Lovie hire was a statement hire by JW. It established that Illinois and JW were not going to dither about looking for the best coach for a cheap price. It established JW's credibility as someone that a coach would want to work for. That continued with the Underwood hire. By JW's second year it was then known that Illinois was looking for and would pay for coaching talent. JW established that he was an AD that was going to support the coaching staffs of the revenue sports and, I would imagine, this carried over to the non-revenue sports as well. This was the important culture change that the Lovie hire evidenced IMHO.
 
#396      
Orange_Blue
For the Purdue game, I was wondering:

1a) If the Illini can score at will, how much would Bret run up the total points?
1b) If the Illini can cover the spread and it would lead Walters getting fired, would Bret back off (because of loyalty/friendship)

Still confident in the game, but always will have a nagging fear that Purdue plays amazing or the Illini play poorly - call it being a fan for nearly 20 years or so.
 
#397      
IlliniKat91
Orange_Blue said:
For the Purdue game, I was wondering:

1a) If the Illini can score at will, how much would Bret run up the total points?
1b) If the Illini can cover the spread and it would lead Walters getting fired, would Bret back off (because of loyalty/friendship)

Still confident in the game, but always will have a nagging fear that Purdue plays amazing or the Illini play poorly - call it being a fan for nearly 20 years or so.
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The Walters has gone head to head with us for recruits, apparently used our calls against us last year (although we should have changed them), and tried to take full credit for the 2022 defense. BB cancelled a bus contract because they helped out PU.

I don't think he'd be purposely unsportsmanlike, but I'm pretty sure the ship has sailed on loyalty and friendship in this case.
 
#398      
WyattEarp
Orange_Blue said:
For the Purdue game, I was wondering:

1a) If the Illini can score at will, how much would Bret run up the total points?
1b) If the Illini can cover the spread and it would lead Walters getting fired, would Bret back off (because of loyalty/friendship)

Still confident in the game, but always will have a nagging fear that Purdue plays amazing or the Illini play poorly - call it being a fan for nearly 20 years or so.
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Interesting question(s)…

1a) 4TDs? (maybe 3 depending on the type of game it is) That’s my guess. But I think it would probably be more about the time remaining than the margin. (in most scenarios) If that makes any sense? Generic Answer: Prolly just a safe margin…with no chance for them to be in contention. I think BB would mostly take the high road…maybe he’d just pour a little salt on the wound.lol
1b) No…I don’t think BB is gonna worry about that kind of minutiae most likely. I don’t think anything can stop Walter’s losing his job at this point. I think that’s damn near inevitable. I could be wrong. But I think it’s over.
 
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