Long post incoming ... skip to the end if you wish, but it helps to back up why I think this game on Saturday might be an essential indicator of the type of team we can be. I was critiqued for putting too much emphasis on a single game in early December, but ... hear me out.
I feel that in today's college hoops world, the stretch of games from mid-November to the New Year are more important and more testing than in a lot of previous eras. Teams often have a ton of new pieces they need to gel, programs are starting to feel that a tough non-conference schedule is worth it as far as NCAAT seeding, we now have two Big Ten games in December, etc. So, I wanted to look back at the previous three seasons to see if a pattern emerged for our successful seasons and our less successful seasons. I started after 2021 due to the weird COVID schedule, and I left off 2022 due to some of its less applicable characteristics (e.g., Kofi being out and playing a schedule that looks less like 2023-2026). I am only listing results vs. Power Conference teams, by the way.
2022-2023
Nov. 18 - W 79-70 vs. #8 UCLA (Las Vegas, NV)
Nov. 20 - L 61-70 vs. #16 Virginia (Las Vegas, NV)
Dec. 2 - L 66-71 at #22 Maryland
Dec. 6 - W 85-78 in OT vs. #2 Texas (New York, NY)
Dec. 10 - L 59-74 vs. Penn State
Dec. 22 - L 71-93 vs. Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
---> Heading into our first January Big Ten game, the Illini were 9-4 (0-2) and unranked.
---> On Selection Sunday, we were 20-12 (11-9) and unranked, which earned us a #9 seed.
---> We would finish the season at 20-13 (11-9) after a First Round loss to #8 seed Arkansas.
2023-2024
Nov. 14 - L 64-71 vs. #4 Marquette
Dec. 2 - W 76-58 at Rutgers
Dec. 5 - W 98-89 vs. #11 FAU (New York, NY)
Dec. 9 - L 79-86 at #17 Tennessee
Dec. 22 - W 97-73 vs. Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
---> Heading into our first January Big Ten game, the Illini were 10-2 (1-0) and ranked #9.
---> On Selection Sunday, we were 26-8 (14-6), BTT champions and ranked #13, which earned us a #3 seed.
---> We would finish the season at 29-9 (14-6) after an Elite Eight loss to #1 seed UConn.
2024-2025
Nov. 20 - L 87-100 vs. #8 Alabama (Birmingham, AL)
Nov. 28 - W 90-77 vs. #19 Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
Dec. 6 - L 66-70 in OT at Northwestern
Dec. 10 - W 86-80 vs. #20 Wisconsin
Dec. 14 - L 64-66 vs. #1 Tennessee
Dec. 22 - W 80-77 vs. Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
---> Heading into our first January Big Ten game, the Illini were 9-3 (1-1) and ranked #24.
---> On Selection Sunday, we were 21-12 (12-8) and ranked #24, which earned us a #6 seed.
---> We would finish the season at 22-13 (12-8) after a Second Round loss to #3 seed Kentucky.
Every season is different, but I do have a couple thoughts...
1. In all three seasons, we both (A) picked up at least one "good win" vs. a non-conference opponent and (B) lost at least one game vs. a "good" non-conference opponent. I am not sure we can draw too much of a pattern there, as we are purposely signing up for high-profile matchups vs. good teams on big stages ... you win some, you lose some!
2. The Big Ten games are also somewhat difficult to compare. Sure, the 2023 team started 0-2, but they also played ranked Maryland on the road. Sure, the 2024 team was undefeated, but they only played one game. Sort of in the middle, the 2025 team picked up a somewhat worrying road loss at Northwestern, but to their credit they rebounded and beat a ranked Wisconsin squad at home four days later. So once again ... not sure the Big Ten record says all that much.
3. HOWEVER, there is one trend I will confidently state, while acknowledging this is a small sample size ... the perceived trajectory of our team heading into Braggin' Rights is very important. We can take losses vs. top non-conference opponents and learn from it ... Izzo has done it for years. Early Big Ten games can be fluky, and they are only 1-2 out of 20 league games. But come Braggin' Rights? I would argue we are going to have a pretty good idea of what we have on our hands here, folks...
---> Even after impressive wins vs. UCLA in Vegas or Texas at MSG, come Braggin' Rights the 2023 team looked to be falling apart at the seams ... and even after some random midseason rebound winning streaks, we pretty much could see by late December that maybe we didn't have the squad we thought. And a #9 seed and First Round exit awaited them.
---> Conversely, while the 2024 team might have frustratingly let a marquee win at home vs. Marquette slip away and lost another huge opportunity for a road win at Tennessee ... it really DID seem like we were continuing to get better, and that showed in a dominant victory vs. Missouri, and we were all feeling pretty damn good about this team's ceiling heading into Big Ten play (before the TSJ issue, of course). And even AFTER all of the drama and interruption of the TSJ situation, come March we had regained the quality we all saw on display in St. Louis, giving us our first Elite Eight in almost 20 years.
---> Once again sort of splitting things down the middle, the 2025 squad had some good wins and a heart breaking loss vs. an elite Tennessee squad, but by Braggin' Rights ... well, frankly, we looked like a #6 seed, and that's what we ended up becoming! We won a close game vs. Mizzou to sort of "tread water" as far as hopes for an elite season went, but the season already had sort of an "up and down" kind of feel ... there was no perception that we had a team ready to go on a hot streak or anything, simply a pretty good squad that could beat good teams but might lack consistency ... and that's exactly what we were.
So what about this year?
2025-2026
Nov. 11 - W 81-77 vs. #11 Texas Tech
Nov. 19 - L 86-90 vs. #11 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
Nov. 28 - L 61-74 vs. #5 UConn (New York, NY)
Dec. 6 - vs. #13 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
Dec. 9 - at Ohio State
Dec. 13 - vs. Nebraska
Dec. 22 - vs. Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
Well, to state the obvious ... we are sort of hanging in the balance. I get that some might think this pattern is a bunch of noise and not worth looking at, I do appreciate that it IS a long season and I also acknowledge this is likely the toughest schedule compared here. However, this is why I am so adamant that we sort of have to make a statement with a win in Nashville. A win vs. the Vols could give these guys the boost they need to sort of get hot, and all of a sudden you could be looking at a 2-0 start in Big Ten play and a nice 3-game winning streak heading into Braggin' Rights, with confidence and cohesion drastically improved. Lose to Tennessee, and the season could still turn out fine ... but the trajectory, at least for the moment, would look more like 2024-2025 than 2023-2024 ... and the latter is obviously what we want.
Maybe this IS the type of team that can gel late, be one of the hottest teams in the country come March and go on a deep NCAA Tournament run as an under-seeded #6 seed. But hey, why take the chance?? A win on Saturday puts us back on track to start stacking wins. The 2024 team learned from early non-conference losses, and they were better for it. The 2023 team just spun their wheels all year, and it ended in a fittingly bad way. The 2025 team (while admittedly facing unique injury / illness situations) sort of had a middle path. I think this team can achieve a lot more than last year's if we are able to gel and fix some unnecessary issues like the constant bricked threes ... but where I likely differ from a lot of folks here is that I think this Saturday's game is a lot more essential of an indicator if that is possible than others might think. So, I DO stand by my earlier "line in the sand" talking point, and I'm not taking it back. With that said...
Let's go get a W in Nashville and kickstart a great season!