Pregame: Illinois vs Texas Tech, Tuesday, November 11th, 7:30pm CT, FS1
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Put another 113 up and call it a day!!! Rip their hearts out early..... I want blood!!!
illini55
- The Villages, FL
First twin up for the Illini!
It feels like we (and most other top-25 teams) are simply 2+ players deeper than TTU. If we get into foul trouble, we can adjust and still put a high-level lineup on the floor. If they get into foul trouble, they’re basically out of playable options. The margin for them is really thin. It seems like our best option is to attack the post and try to get them into foul trouble early.
Going off performance, Kenpom would say there's between 6-10 points historically. The 2024 UConn that destroyed everyone was an anomaly at 12. That was a team for the ages.
I'm interested in dissecting this a little further (and not because I want to argue with everyone about it, I think "close" is generally subjective, at least).
Where can I see this on the Kenpom website?
Yes, if Bamgboye plays, he only averaged 3.8pts and 3.3 rebounds in 17min pg last year for VCU, but he averaged 2.1 blocks in those 17 mpg, so his block rate is very high, he's their Big Z essentially. The difference is, Big Z and Mirk should pull their big men away from the basket to open up lanes, where TTU wants to feed Toppin down low, so we will have Big Z at the rim most of the game if Bamgboye does play given he's not much of an offensive threat
I’ve heard Luke Bamgboye, Leon Horner and Josiah Moseley are “doubtful” to play from a member of Tech staff …
Have to see how things go but doubtful is the word as of now …
Game plan is pretty simple …
Bam on Anderson (why didn’t we recruit that kid) …
Make Toppin take tough shots but he can’t beat you by himself …
Get a freaking hand in Atwell face … Can’t let him get hot …
I’m fine with anyone else on their team taking the shots … Especially the Petty kid … He likes to shout 3s then let him shoot 3s …
Bam on Anderson (why didn’t we recruit that kid) …
Make Toppin take tough shots but he can’t beat you by himself …
Get a freaking hand in Atwell face … Can’t let him get hot …
I’m fine with anyone else on their team taking the shots … Especially the Petty kid … He likes to shout 3s then let him shoot 3s …
What was the deal with Anderson? He was a VA kid when Chester was around.
That said, did he grow? Recruiting sites have him at 5’11 and 155 out of HS and now he’s listed at 6’3”
Think we'll see Mirkovic taking Toppin into some post ups? Haven't seen a TON of David post touches but I'd love to see how hard Toppin wants to guard down low. With their depth issues in the front court should Bam be out...foul trouble could change the game.
Game really comes down to if Z can stay out of foul trouble early. I’m sure Tech will feed Toppin early and often to get 2 cheap ones on him. Unfortunately this game comes down to reffing. If Z can get 25+ minutes we win going away
It's definitely a must win if we are planning to go undefeated this year...come on guys how could everyone miss that...!
I measured Net Rating (NetRTG) spreads among top teams across the last 10 seasons (2017–2026). Note that early in the season, there is typically more parity in rating systems. The top teams tend to separate as the season progresses, so using full-season data produces a clearer signal.
I based my analysis off of NetRTG, which I believe is what Calvin was referring to. NetRTG is the difference between adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. For example, this year, our net rating as of today is +28.71, where we score 123.6 points per 100 possessions and give up 94.9 points per 100 possessions.
On average, the #10 team in the country is roughly as far from #1 as they are from the team ranked around #47. In practical terms, the mid-high tier of the rankings is much more tightly packed than the very top. For example, if we applied this to this season, Michigan at #10 is just as close to Kentucky (#1) in NetRTG as they are to Texas A&M (~#47).
This is pretty awesome! Thank you for diving in.
It seems there is plenty merit to the #10 team being fairly well displaced from the #1 team. And this is going by 'team rating' and not necessarily something that is measuring raw talent? It is common enough to see extremely talented teams that underperform (and vice-versa).
IbleedOandB2014
In BU we trust
- Chattanooga
Seven Saints or Black Dog downtown.
The "We're the 10th most talented team" comment I made was based off Torvik's talent rating.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
My gold standard start for every Illini team is 17-0, set by the 88-89 Flyin’ Illini. My Super Gold standard is 29-0, set by the 04-05 team, but we may never see that again.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
The koolaid drinkers think we win every game . Texas Tech has 2 pro level players, as some other rational posters have pointed out. Without Tomi it’s going to be tough. Agree with having multiple players attacking the rim tonight
Welcome. This board occasionally has an opposing fan join for various reasons, but often to find out good eating places. I haven't been to Champaign for food in a long time, so I searched and came up with some posts about that. The following was posted by "IlliniKat91" for a Buckeye visitor who was here for the football game.
Welcome!
If you're a fan of great German-style beer, you can't go wrong with a stop at Riggs in Urbana at some point during your weekend in Champaign. I'd add Triptych in Savoy (just south of Urbana-Champaign), too.
For food, we've always enjoyed Guido's, Maize, and Big Grove in downtown Champaign. If you're interested in Champaign's take on deep dish, Papa Del's is great. It does get crowded there, though, so plan ahead.
"Shief" added: Kat touched on many food options, but I will add a few. Black Dog BBQ is a local favorite. The Champaign location is temporarily shut down, but the one in Urbana should still open. If you want a higher-end steak place, Hamilton Walker's in downtown Champaign would be a good choice. If you are willing to go to one of the surrounding farm towns, like 5 miles south of Urbana, the Philo Tavern in Philo has good prime rib and twice-baked potatoes on Saturday night and should still be serving fried chicken on Friday.
And "hooraybeer" posted this: I would say that Murphy's pub on Green St is a (the?) classic Illini bar left on campus
The highlights I have seen for Toppin show a lot of dribbling in the post, and he rarely passes it back out. I would roll down a guard for a double team with a post pass.
He is also effective in the pick and roll and picks and pops less often. In my opinion how the pick and roll will be defended is the key. He is quick, shifty and bouncy. Z might have the lateral quickness to stay with him if he doesn’t get pulled away to pick up the dribbler.
It's 2 pros and mostly role players with the injuries. I don't mean to minimize the guys they have as it's a talented roster but it's a 2 headed monster at this point.
Think Illinois still has the depth on them. If Bam starts his B1G DPOTY candidacy by putting Christian in PG-Prison? Or you get an off game for JT/foul trouble? Lot of high powered Illinois scoring to keep up with
But as Stacey King likes to say, "Big time players make big time plays"... If Andersen and Toppin are the best players on the floor? TT walks out with a big win
You are correct on the Toppin offensive scout. I was pointing towards Mirkovic catching some post-ups on Toppin--should Toppin guard David.
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