Pregame: Illinois vs VCU, Saturday, March 21st, 6:50pm CT, CBS

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#154      
Illini 993
Hill's previous high in points this year was 24 against Loyola. He scored over 20 just 7 times out of 35 games so far. He was impressive last night, but expecting him to repeat that performance is improbable.
 
#155      
skyIdub
Oracle21 said:
VCU is way better than Duquesne was. Duquesne was #88 on Kenpom that year. VCU is #42. They are 17-1 in their last 18 games. The only guards we’ve played all year that are as quick and as dynamic as there’s are Wisconsin, Alabama, UCLA (with Dent) and we went 0-4 vs those teams.

I think this game will be tough bc VCU, for as quick as they are, doesnt make many mistakes to beat themselves. I know IL doesn’t force many turnovers but VCU hardly makes any. Very low turnover games for VCU during this 17-1 stretch.

I don’t gamble but I’d be all over VCU +11.5. Similar to the Chattanooga game during Kofi’s last season. IL was -8 that game. Chattanooga was #67 on Kenpom. Much higher scoring than that game was tho
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OT,OT, they shot 46% and outrebounded us, shot 50% and OT

If VCU can pull off shooting 50% and staying close to us rebounding it will STILL be close, and if we lose.....we beat ourselves.
 
#156      
NarrowJ
Oracle21 said:
VCU is way better than Duquesne was. Duquesne was #88 on Kenpom that year. VCU is #42. They are 17-1 in their last 18 games. The only guards we’ve played all year that are as quick and as dynamic as there’s are Wisconsin, Alabama, UCLA (with Dent) and we went 0-4 vs those teams.

I think this game will be tough bc VCU, for as quick as they are, doesnt make many mistakes to beat themselves. I know IL doesn’t force many turnovers but VCU hardly makes any. Very low turnover games for VCU during this 17-1 stretch.

I don’t gamble but I’d be all over VCU +11.5. Similar to the Chattanooga game during Kofi’s last season. IL was -8 that game. Chattanooga was #67 on Kenpom. Much higher scoring than that game was tho
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What about Purdue, Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Iowa? We managed to beat all of those teams. To be quite honest, VCU’s guards are probably comparable to Missouri’s in terms of both quickness and quality/ability.

People see one good performance and base their entire worldview on it.
 
#157      
I-L-L 1318
NarrowJ said:
What about Purdue, Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Iowa? We managed to beat all of those teams. To be quite honest, VCU’s guards are probably comparable to Missouri’s in terms of both quickness and quality/ability.

People see one good performance and base their entire worldview on it.
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And for a 25 minutes of that game, VCU mightily struggled. UNC had a 19 pt lead....not that we haven't been there and lost.
 
#158      
altgeld88
NarrowJ said:
What about Purdue, Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Iowa? We managed to beat all of those teams. To be quite honest, VCU’s guards are probably comparable to Missouri’s in terms of both quickness and quality/ability.

People see one good performance and base their entire worldview on it.
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My friend, you know as well as I do that the sky on this board is forever falling during March.

We should call it "LAF": Loyalty After February.
 
#160      
Fly Illini Fly!
Oracle21 said:
VCU is way better than Duquesne was. Duquesne was #88 on Kenpom that year. VCU is #42. They are 17-1 in their last 18 games. The only guards we’ve played all year that are as quick and as dynamic as there’s are Wisconsin, Alabama, UCLA (with Dent) and we went 0-4 vs those teams.
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You didn’t include Braden Smith? Or Bruce Thornton? Or Bennett Stirtz? Or Christian Anderson? Or Jakobe Gillespie?
 
#161      
PepeSilvia
ChiefGritty said:
I mean I don't think we blamed Shaka even in the moment.

#SHAKAWATCH, man, that's an all-time peak Illini message board saga.

Whether you'd go back and hire Shaka in 2012 if you could is a pretty interesting question really.
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I think Shaka vs Groce is a pretty resounding yes in Shaka's favor.

I know they weren't good this year but he's been very very good at Marquette without a ton of NIL resources.

He also wasnt really even bad at Texas, just kind of middling but I think he would have had better success at a basketball school like Illinois.
 
#164      
RollChief
Oracle21 said:
VCU is way better than Duquesne was. Duquesne was #88 on Kenpom that year. VCU is #42.
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Maybe a closer comp to VCU this year would be our first round matchup last year against Xavier. Xavier was an 11 seed with a #41 Kenpom ranking when we played them, coming off a play-in win against a battle-tested bubble team with elite talent in Texas. Xavier was well coached, had a top-tier lead guard (Ryan Conwell) with a great backup guard (Dante Maddox) coming off the bench. Xavier was coming off a hot finish in the Big East, with their last loss before us in a close loss to Marquette in the Big East tournament. Also very notably, they were the 2nd-oldest team in D-1.

Xavier simply did not have the size to keep up with us on the boards; to @illini0440 's point, neither does VCU. If you look at all of our losses this year, yes they had explosive guards, but they also had good if not great front courts.
 
#165      
Fly Illini Fly!
RollChief said:
Maybe a closer comp to VCU this year would be our first round matchup last year against Xavier. Xavier was an 11 seed with a #41 Kenpom ranking when we played them, coming off a play-in win against a battle-tested bubble team with elite talent in Texas. Xavier was well coached, had a top-tier lead guard (Ryan Conwell) with a great backup guard (Dante Maddox) coming off the bench. Xavier was coming off a hot finish in the Big East, with their last loss before us in a close loss to Marquette in the Big East tournament. Also very notably, they were the 2nd-oldest team in D-1.

Xavier simply did not have the size to keep up with us on the boards; to @illini0440 's point, neither does VCU.
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Xavier did have a respectable low-post presence in Zach Freemantle.

VCU's offense is entirely reliant on their guards to get downhill, create, and make perimeter shots. Their interior is even thinner.
 
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#166      
gary?
RollChief said:
Maybe a closer comp to VCU this year would be our first round matchup last year against Xavier. Xavier was an 11 seed with a #41 Kenpom ranking when we played them, coming off a play-in win against a battle-tested bubble team with elite talent in Texas. Xavier was well coached, had a top-tier lead guard (Ryan Conwell) with a great backup guard (Dante Maddox) coming off the bench. Xavier was coming off a hot finish in the Big East, with their last loss before us in a close loss to Marquette in the Big East tournament. Also very notably, they were the 2nd-oldest team in D-1.

Xavier simply did not have the size to keep up with us on the boards; to @illini0440 's point, neither does VCU. If you look at all of our losses this year, yes they had explosive guards, but they also had good if not great front courts.
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that is a great comparison. very interesting
 
#167      
zentrails
Pweezy said:
It took 34 points from Hill to take down UNC in OT. It's not like they are some juggernaut when he plays great. Obviously there's always the chance of an upset, but if we show up and play our game I like our chances a lot.
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IIRC, we haven't been beaten by a NON-Top 25 team all year, don't expect the first to be tomorrow
 
#169      
tcb13
PopChampaign said:
We’ve allowed players to go on those types of heaters all year. Many times with no answer.
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THIS...and, the Illini have been a team that is prone to giving up big leads. VCU just staged an epic comeback so they're going to believe they're still in it even if they fall behind double digits. I feel pretty confident we'll get to watch Brad and company in Houston next weekend, but I will not exhale until the final buzzer.
 
#171      
PepeSilvia
RollChief said:
Maybe a closer comp to VCU this year would be our first round matchup last year against Xavier. Xavier was an 11 seed with a #41 Kenpom ranking when we played them, coming off a play-in win against a battle-tested bubble team with elite talent in Texas. Xavier was well coached, had a top-tier lead guard (Ryan Conwell) with a great backup guard (Dante Maddox) coming off the bench. Xavier was coming off a hot finish in the Big East, with their last loss before us in a close loss to Marquette in the Big East tournament. Also very notably, they were the 2nd-oldest team in D-1.

Xavier simply did not have the size to keep up with us on the boards; to @illini0440 's point, neither does VCU. If you look at all of our losses this year, yes they had explosive guards, but they also had good if not great front courts.
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In my opinion, Michigan is really the only team the Illini lost to this year with a great frontcourt. I like the combo of Mast and Frager for Nebraska.

UCLA had a pair of good bigs in Bilodeau and Dailey that are undersized but can shoot and put the ball on the dribble. Wisconsins bigs are soft but could stretch the floor, and I've never thought Cooper or Kohler were anything special.

Then in non-con, Tarris Reed was playing injured and hardly played(Reibe is ok), and Alabama's frontcourt is nothing special.

That takes you through every losses frontcourt and Djokovic is a similar caliber of player if not better than those teams bigs outside of Michigan. Belle is strong and a very good athlete and Evans isn't as physical as Belle but he's with and mobile.

Djokovic is every bit capable of winning the matchup with the twins. Mirkovic is going to need to come up big here.
 
#173      
NarrowJ
PopChampaign said:
We’ve allowed players to go on those types of heaters all year. Many times with no answer.
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Number of players who have scored 34 or more vs Illinois this season: 3 (Toppin, Thornton, Boyd)

So all season = 3x

He also needed 7 threes to score those 34 points

Number of players who have made 7 or more threes vs Illinois this season: 0 (zero)

I would rank performances vs Illinois as follows:

1. Boyd in BTT
2. Thornton
3. Toppin
4. Sandfort
5. Fears Jr
6. B.Smith

What should really be noted here is the difference in talent level of the players on that list compared to Terrance Hill Jr
 
#174      
OrangeBlue98
MDchicago said:
Vegas: Ilini -10.5
KenPom: Illini 81% (83-74)
Torvik: Illini 83% (84-73)
EvanMiya: Illini -10.1
Haslametrics: Illini -12.64 (82.56-69.92)
ESPN: Illini 82.4%
TeamRanking.com: 80.7%

All well and good, but for tournament games I just channel Al Davis...
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“The other team’s quarterback must go down, and he most go down hard.”??

Wait, wrong Al Davis quote. :) “Just win, baby.”
 
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