Pregame: Illinois vs Wisconsin, Friday, March 13th, 1:30pm CT, BTN

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#76      
RabidDawgClassic
RockfordIllini said:
Only bad outcome is if we get boat raced by 20. And unfortunately the way we’ve been playing this feels like a 20 point loss. We can’t stop any dribble penetration at all and even without Winter Wisconsin’s bigs have been on fire (8-13 against Purdue). If we can’t break out of our shooting funk I don’t see us making enough shots to keep up.

Hopefully a few more days of rest helps.
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Good lord… we’ve had one double digit loss in 2026 and only two all season. And before a six point win at Maryland we had a 26 point win against Oregon. I’d hate to go through life always assuming the very worst possible outcome will happen.
 
#77      
RockfordIllini
Ha. I usually tend to be pretty optimistic but Wisconsin is a tough matchup for us because they have quick penetrating guards and stretch bigs. We haven’t really stopped dribble penetration all year but especially in the last 2 months. We just had a similar player to Blackwell drop 30 on us. Werner even said it’s our Achilles heal. So bad matchup to start.

And at this moment their offense is playing at a very high level so I have a hard time imagining us getting stops. And at this moment our offense, while still good, isn’t firing on all cylinders. Keaton’s efficiency is way down the last 5-6 games. He was battling back stiffness yesterday and his shoulder may still be banged up from the UCLA game. Aside from Jake and a little Mirk, we are in a team wide shooting funk. Sounds like Andrej has been battling illness but he’s been hit or miss. Kylan hasn’t been great offensively either to the point where we usually only have one of he or Andrej on the floor at any given time, who are our two best perimeter defenders.

So at this point in time, just feels like 2 teams trending in different directions. Now shooting comes and goes an can come back in the blink of an eye. And it’s true Wisconsin is bad defensively and offers little rim protection. And we could heal up/just turn the page and look like a completely different team in the postseason, happens all the time both ways. But based on how both teams are trending right now it feels like Blackwell and Boyd will be able to get whatever they want at the rim and Wisconsin will hit about 15 3s.

I hope I’m wrong and we turn it around, but I think we are going to have to score 90 to win and I don’t know if we can get there the way we are shooting 3s currently.
 
#79      
Fly Illini Fly!
RockfordIllini said:
Only bad outcome is if we get boat raced by 20. And unfortunately the way we’ve been playing this feels like a 20 point loss. We can’t stop any dribble penetration at all and even without Winter Wisconsin’s bigs have been on fire (8-13 against Purdue). If we can’t break out of our shooting funk I don’t see us making enough shots to keep up.

Hopefully a few more days of rest helps.
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Canadian Lol GIF
 
#81      
March2TheArch
RockfordIllini said:
Ha. I usually tend to be pretty optimistic but Wisconsin is a tough matchup for us because they have quick penetrating guards and stretch bigs. We haven’t really stopped dribble penetration all year but especially in the last 2 months. We just had a similar player to Blackwell drop 30 on us. Werner even said it’s our Achilles heal. So bad matchup to start.

And at this moment their offense is playing at a very high level so I have a hard time imagining us getting stops. And at this moment our offense, while still good, isn’t firing on all cylinders. Keaton’s efficiency is way down the last 5-6 games. He was battling back stiffness yesterday and his shoulder may still be banged up from the UCLA game. Aside from Jake and a little Mirk, we are in a team wide shooting funk. Sounds like Andrej has been battling illness but he’s been hit or miss. Kylan hasn’t been great offensively either to the point where we usually only have one of he or Andrej on the floor at any given time, who are our two best perimeter defenders.

So at this point in time, just feels like 2 teams trending in different directions. Now shooting comes and goes an can come back in the blink of an eye. And it’s true Wisconsin is bad defensively and offers little rim protection. And we could heal up/just turn the page and look like a completely different team in the postseason, happens all the time both ways. But based on how both teams are trending right now it feels like Blackwell and Boyd will be able to get whatever they want at the rim and Wisconsin will hit about 15 3s.

I hope I’m wrong and we turn it around, but I think we are going to have to score 90 to win and I don’t know if we can get there the way we are shooting 3s currently.
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Yup. Key point is inability to have our two best perimeter defenders on their two best players at the same time. One will always be cooking us. The loss of Andrej’s offense is not so secretly what will end our season earlier than desired.
 
#82      
Fighter of the Nightman
A few pregame thoughts regarding our BTT and general postseason campaign based on my own feelings and things I have seen posted by others, here and elsewhere.

1. RE: who to root for on Wednesday, put me in the camp that there is almost no chance Wisconsin loses on Thursday ... so I am pulling for USC. If I thought it was realistic that Washington might play the game of their lives and beat Wisconsin and then come back down to Earth vs. the Illini, I would root for the Huskies. However, I just have a gut feeling that Wisconsin isn't due for a come down game already, and thus my rooting priority would definitely be for USC to somehow finish in the top 75 and give us another Quad 1 win. With that said, I fully expect Washington to smoke USC, proceed to get beaten handily by Wisconsin and us to get a relatively fully rested Badgers team on Friday, lol.

2. I will never understand the downplaying of the BTT. I have loved this event since its early days, and the vibe of all conference teams being in one location is so cool. I have only been twice (both times at the UC), but it was such a cool atmosphere to have a crowd that effectively amounts to a "Big Ten fan convention." Also, given how often the event has been in Chicago or Indianapolis, it is always a point of pride for me that Illini fans are ALWAYS among the most well represented at said "convention," specifically when it is at the United Center. You can also make the argument that the bigger the Big Ten gets and the more imbalanced the conference schedule becomes, the meaningfulness of hoisting the BTT championship banner has only increased. You can definitely make the argument that winning the regular season championship still matters more, but the point is this wouldn't have even been an argument 20 years ago ... JMO and all, but LONG gone are the days where the BTT was this pointless money grab with a trophy that was effectively low brow compared to a regular season championship, haha. All that is to say, winning the BTT and having FOURTH banner hanging in Champaign from the last six years?? That is awesome, and that definitely matters.

3. Some folks have mentioned that it might be in some way beneficial to lose on Saturday and "get an extra day of rest." I would bring up two very important points to consider on that topic. (1) If we make it to Saturday, I would say there is a next-to-zero chance that we are not a #2 seed. (2) If we are a #2 seed via making it to Saturday, I would be SHOCKED if that meant anything other than playing in St. Louis given where we'd be on the pecking order ... and St. Louis is a Friday / Sunday location. In other words, if we make it to Saturday, we have probably secured the right to get next Thursday as an additional day off anyway. I personally think having Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday off this week is rest enough. If we make it to Sunday and are able to win another championship (not to mention play in what is always the most watched college basketball game pre-NCAA Tournament...) and then get Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday to rest, with no air travel required?? I just do not think that is an insufficient amount of time off...

4. Lastly, I just reject the idea that the team that wins the BTT is like somehow always worn out for the NCAA Tournament. This myth took off HARD during the 2021-2023 era, due to these results of BTT champions...
---> Illinois wins in 2021. Get a #1 seed in NCAAT. Loses in Second Round
---> Iowa wins in 2022. Gets a #5 in NCAAT. Loses in First Round.
---> Purdue wins in 2023. Gets a #1 seed in NCAAT. Loses in First Round.

But here are all of the Big Ten teams who have made the Final Four before that 2021-2023 stretch (and since the BTT began), with their BTT results included. I'm also including their NCAAT seeds for some extra context.

1999 #2 Michigan State ... won BTT Championship
2000 #1 Michigan State ... won BTT Championship
2000 #8 Wisconsin ... lost in BTT Semifinals
2001 #1 Michigan State ... lost in BTT Quarterfinals
2002 #5 Indiana ... lost in BTT Second Round
2005 #1 Illinois ... won BTT Championship
2005 #5 Michigan State ... lost in BTT Quarterfinals
2007 #1 Ohio State ... won BTT Championship
2009 #2 Michigan State ... lost in BTT Semifinals
2010 #5 Michigan State ... lost in BTT Quarterfinals
2012 #2 Ohio State ... lost in BTT Championship
2013 #4 Michigan ... lost in BTT Quarterfinals
2014 #2 Wisconsin ... lost in BTT Semifinals
2015 #1 Wisconsin ... won BTT Championship
2015 #7 Michigan State ... lost in BTT Championship
2018 #3 Michigan ... won BTT Championship
2019 #2 Michigan State ... won BTT Championship

So of the 17 different teams that made the Final Four, 7 won the BTT outright and 9 made it to Sunday. Only 5 of the teams lost before Saturday, which definitely seems to be a bit of a bad omen going into the NCAA Tournament. The 2 BTT Champions since 2023 have made the Elite Eight (us!) and the Sweet Sixteen. I'm not saying there is this huge correlation between making it to Sunday and going on a deep NCAAT run, but there CERTAINLY isn't a correlation with losing before Sunday and the "extra rest" helping. Anything can happen in March Madness, of course, but the intuitive logic is quite clear, if you ask me ... if you find yourself playing on this coming Sunday, it's because you're currently playing good basketball and that is generally a good sign for your NCAAT prospects.
 
#84      
pruman91
Retro62 said:
I guarantee that our odd of winning any game would improve dramatically if Z learned to rebound with two hands. He gave up at least five rebounds in that Maryland game by not doing so.
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also learn to land on both feet with legs bent.....dude fell repeatedly this year.....but he's a shot blocking animal.....he really really is..
 
#85      
rdk573
RockfordIllini said:
Ha. I usually tend to be pretty optimistic but Wisconsin is a tough matchup for us because they have quick penetrating guards and stretch bigs. We haven’t really stopped dribble penetration all year but especially in the last 2 months. We just had a similar player to Blackwell drop 30 on us. Werner even said it’s our Achilles heal. So bad matchup to start.

And at this moment their offense is playing at a very high level so I have a hard time imagining us getting stops. And at this moment our offense, while still good, isn’t firing on all cylinders. Keaton’s efficiency is way down the last 5-6 games. He was battling back stiffness yesterday and his shoulder may still be banged up from the UCLA game. Aside from Jake and a little Mirk, we are in a team wide shooting funk. Sounds like Andrej has been battling illness but he’s been hit or miss. Kylan hasn’t been great offensively either to the point where we usually only have one of he or Andrej on the floor at any given time, who are our two best perimeter defenders.

So at this point in time, just feels like 2 teams trending in different directions. Now shooting comes and goes an can come back in the blink of an eye. And it’s true Wisconsin is bad defensively and offers little rim protection. And we could heal up/just turn the page and look like a completely different team in the postseason, happens all the time both ways. But based on how both teams are trending right now it feels like Blackwell and Boyd will be able to get whatever they want at the rim and Wisconsin will hit about 15 3s.

I hope I’m wrong and we turn it around, but I think we are going to have to score 90 to win and I don’t know if we can get there the way we are shooting 3s currently.
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I agree..We're in trouble not only in the BIG tournament but next week too...I have never been more down on this team than I am now
 
#88      
HensonHall71
I think we handle Wisconsin this time around - we didn't have Boswell or Andrej to guard Boyd/Blackwell and we still were up 8 and let is slip late. Their starting center Winters might not be full strength either even if he does play which makes them very thin up front. They can get hot from three - like they did against us the first time around and will be difficult, but I like our matchup with them. We should be plenty motivated as well after losing to them at home.
 
#89      
RockfordIllini
To be clear, I think we could definitely still make the S16, even with how we are currently playing. And if we regain our January form I don’t think there’s a team we can’t beat.

But with how we are currently playing a lot will depend on matchups, and Wisconsin is about as bad a matchup as we could hope for, which is why I’m not optimistic for Friday. But would be happy to see us regain our form of course.
 
#90      
gary?
I know… it’s rough to get excited about a team that’s only in line for a 2 seed.
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cutesy answer. this team has not been playing well for the last month, save the usc game. still just 4-4 during that time.

i will be rooting for the illini, of course, but showing some concern is warranted, especially considering how we always seem to struggle in march. even the elite 8 year we got an embarrassing 30-0 run hung on us with underwood unwilling to change tactics.
 
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#91      
Illinicpa14
Fighter of the Nightman said:
A few pregame thoughts regarding our BTT and general postseason campaign based on my own feelings and things I have seen posted by others, here and elsewhere.

1. RE: who to root for on Wednesday, put me in the camp that there is almost no chance Wisconsin loses on Thursday ... so I am pulling for USC. If I thought it was realistic that Washington might play the game of their lives and beat Wisconsin and then come back down to Earth vs. the Illini, I would root for the Huskies. However, I just have a gut feeling that Wisconsin isn't due for a come down game already, and thus my rooting priority would definitely be for USC to somehow finish in the top 75 and give us another Quad 1 win. With that said, I fully expect Washington to smoke USC, proceed to get beaten handily by Wisconsin and us to get a relatively fully rested Badgers team on Friday, lol.

2. I will never understand the downplaying of the BTT. I have loved this event since its early days, and the vibe of all conference teams being in one location is so cool. I have only been twice (both times at the UC), but it was such a cool atmosphere to have a crowd that effectively amounts to a "Big Ten fan convention." Also, given how often the event has been in Chicago or Indianapolis, it is always a point of pride for me that Illini fans are ALWAYS among the most well represented at said "convention," specifically when it is at the United Center. You can also make the argument that the bigger the Big Ten gets and the more imbalanced the conference schedule becomes, the meaningfulness of hoisting the BTT championship banner has only increased. You can definitely make the argument that winning the regular season championship still matters more, but the point is this wouldn't have even been an argument 20 years ago ... JMO and all, but LONG gone are the days where the BTT was this pointless money grab with a trophy that was effectively low brow compared to a regular season championship, haha. All that is to say, winning the BTT and having FOURTH banner hanging in Champaign from the last six years?? That is awesome, and that definitely matters.

3. Some folks have mentioned that it might be in some way beneficial to lose on Saturday and "get an extra day of rest." I would bring up two very important points to consider on that topic. (1) If we make it to Saturday, I would say there is a next-to-zero chance that we are not a #2 seed. (2) If we are a #2 seed via making it to Saturday, I would be SHOCKED if that meant anything other than playing in St. Louis given where we'd be on the pecking order ... and St. Louis is a Friday / Sunday location. In other words, if we make it to Saturday, we have probably secured the right to get next Thursday as an additional day off anyway. I personally think having Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday off this week is rest enough. If we make it to Sunday and are able to win another championship (not to mention play in what is always the most watched college basketball game pre-NCAA Tournament...) and then get Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday to rest, with no air travel required?? I just do not think that is an insufficient amount of time off...

4. Lastly, I just reject the idea that the team that wins the BTT is like somehow always worn out for the NCAA Tournament. This myth took off HARD during the 2021-2023 era, due to these results of BTT champions...
---> Illinois wins in 2021. Get a #1 seed in NCAAT. Loses in Second Round
---> Iowa wins in 2022. Gets a #5 in NCAAT. Loses in First Round.
---> Purdue wins in 2023. Gets a #1 seed in NCAAT. Loses in First Round.

But here are all of the Big Ten teams who have made the Final Four before that 2021-2023 stretch (and since the BTT began), with their BTT results included. I'm also including their NCAAT seeds for some extra context.

1999 #2 Michigan State ... won BTT Championship
2000 #1 Michigan State ... won BTT Championship
2000 #8 Wisconsin ... lost in BTT Semifinals
2001 #1 Michigan State ... lost in BTT Quarterfinals
2002 #5 Indiana ... lost in BTT Second Round
2005 #1 Illinois ... won BTT Championship
2005 #5 Michigan State ... lost in BTT Quarterfinals
2007 #1 Ohio State ... won BTT Championship
2009 #2 Michigan State ... lost in BTT Semifinals
2010 #5 Michigan State ... lost in BTT Quarterfinals
2012 #2 Ohio State ... lost in BTT Championship
2013 #4 Michigan ... lost in BTT Quarterfinals
2014 #2 Wisconsin ... lost in BTT Semifinals
2015 #1 Wisconsin ... won BTT Championship
2015 #7 Michigan State ... lost in BTT Championship
2018 #3 Michigan ... won BTT Championship
2019 #2 Michigan State ... won BTT Championship

So of the 17 different teams that made the Final Four, 7 won the BTT outright and 9 made it to Sunday. Only 5 of the teams lost before Saturday, which definitely seems to be a bit of a bad omen going into the NCAA Tournament. The 2 BTT Champions since 2023 have made the Elite Eight (us!) and the Sweet Sixteen. I'm not saying there is this huge correlation between making it to Sunday and going on a deep NCAAT run, but there CERTAINLY isn't a correlation with losing before Sunday and the "extra rest" helping. Anything can happen in March Madness, of course, but the intuitive logic is quite clear, if you ask me ... if you find yourself playing on this coming Sunday, it's because you're currently playing good basketball and that is generally a good sign for your NCAAT prospects.
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And on top of that - if you are a 2 seed that means the Friday game is against a 15..:not saying you can’t lose because teams do, but more than likely the first hard game is Sunday.

Compare that to if you’re a 5 seed; that 5-12 is a game you might only be a 5 point favorite
 
#93      
CentralILLini
Mostly good outcomes here, assuming we face wisconsin.

1. We get another crack at trying to stop a team with quick penetrating guards before the NCAAT and avenge a prior loss.
2. If we win, another Q1 win and a chance for a marquee/confidence building win vs Michigan.
3. If we lose, we get an extra day to heal up/get over sicknesses etc.

Only bad outcome is if we get boat raced by 20. And unfortunately the way we’ve been playing this feels like a 20 point loss. We can’t stop any dribble penetration at all and even without Winter Wisconsin’s bigs have been on fire (8-13 against Purdue). If we can’t break out of our shooting funk I don’t see us making enough shots to keep up.

Hopefully a few more days of rest helps.
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“20 point loss”. Get out of here with that crap.
 
#95      
Second place is 1st loser
FleetFeetIllini said:
Wagler seems to be frustrated by the physical guarding against him. There is a lot of tape out there now and teams know they need to body him hard. He's still getting to the line but it has mad him much less efficient. The Ivisic brothers are doing their best Justin Harmon impression down the stretch (he had zero made threes in his last 13 games on that Elite Eight team). If these things continue it's not going to be a very long March. Hopefully some time off helps. Would be nice to see one good game in the Big Ten Tournament, but Big Z has made 2 threes in the past month. Tomi and Wagler havent been that bad but also haven't been shooting well.
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Absolutely outstanding post and analysis.

I have some real bad news for him next year in the league if this is frustrating. Keaton is not a big, physical guard and really lacks explosiveness. I'm not sure if he's dunked more than 5 times this year and the amount of times he gets into the lane and gets blocked is alarming.

MSU is the team that started blitzing him the second he gets the ball. It was only a matter of time. Once enough film gets out there, it's a copycat game. The excuse that he gets fouled in a bad excuse. NBA guards finish through contact. He's nowhere close to being there yet. He's a physically undeveloped freshman. He is unquestionably skilled, but if he's going to get run off the three point line, he has to have more in his bag.

He struggled against Mills yesterday. He's got, at least, one year of the developmental league in front of him once he gets to the NBA. Riley had a very similar issue with dealing with physicality, BUT Will is the far superior athlete. Any pass up by the rim, he'd get up and stuff it.

We'll see what he does in March. He's going to be counted on to get us where we want to be and they are absolutely unfair expectations of him.
 
#96      
Chuck Nuggets
BoiseBaller said:
I'd agree, it was a good regular season. No bad losses, which had bit us in previous years.

But for me, this year is about the post season. S16 or bust for me. We need to start making the second weekend consistently.
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I agree. Anything less than a S16 again would be very disappointing.
 
#97      
thefalcon5
The past 4 games we’ve shot 31% or worse from 3.

Bump that up to our season average of 35% and I think we’re singing a different mood tune.

I still have both high hopes and expectations for this team. Gotta beat Wisconsin (who’s been playing extremely well since our first matchup) and show up against Michigan.
 
#98      
ILLforever
We haven't looked like our 12-game winning streak team since the first 10 minutes against UCLA. So, confidence is down, but now it's time for Brad to do his job and get the team back up and confident to go on another long winning streak. That won't be an easy task, but doable. There's nothing I would like more than to beat Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan State in a row going into the NCAA tournament. While beating them, winning one of the games in overtime would be even better. I think that would show we truly have a shot at a National Title or at least a Final Four. Anything less than winning the BTT tournament and we're probably looking at sweet 16 or less. Sure, I would be hoping for more, but I wouldn't bet on it. I think if we were to lose to Wisconsin, we would be an NCAA 3 seed at best. I think our best defense against Wisconsin would have Kylan and Andrej guarding Boyd and Blackwell from the start to not let one of them get off early.
 
#99      
Altuve27
I took a look at the box score from the first Wisconsin game. We only out rebounded them 38-35 and gave up 14 offensive rebounds.

That’s the stat that needs to change. Have to really hurt them on the glass.
 
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