Pregame: Illinois vs Wisconsin, Friday, March 13th, 1:30pm CT, BTN

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#126      
In the Big Ten Tourney I have
Elite 8
Michigan over OSU, Wisconsin over Illinois, Purdue over Nebraska, UCLA over MSU
Final 4
Michigan over Wisconsin, Purdue over UCLA
FINAL
Michigan over Purdue
 
#127      
Absolutely outstanding post and analysis.

I have some real bad news for him next year in the league if this is frustrating. Keaton is not a big, physical guard and really lacks explosiveness. I'm not sure if he's dunked more than 5 times this year and the amount of times he gets into the lane and gets blocked is alarming.

MSU is the team that started blitzing him the second he gets the ball. It was only a matter of time. Once enough film gets out there, it's a copycat game. The excuse that he gets fouled in a bad excuse. NBA guards finish through contact. He's nowhere close to being there yet. He's a physically undeveloped freshman. He is unquestionably skilled, but if he's going to get run off the three point line, he has to have more in his bag.

He struggled against Mills yesterday. He's got, at least, one year of the developmental league in front of him once he gets to the NBA. Riley had a very similar issue with dealing with physicality, BUT Will is the far superior athlete. Any pass up by the rim, he'd get up and stuff it.

We'll see what he does in March. He's going to be counted on to get us where we want to be and they are absolutely unfair expectations of him.
Yep, you couldn't be more right, or maybe not. Wagler scoring 18 / game since MSU. Michigan had Yaxel guarding him and held him to 23. The game Illinois plays doesn't revolve around any one player. We average almost 61 shots per game. Wagler about 14 / game. - I am not seeing the trail off you are. Nor am I seeing him unable to compete at the next level.

This team wins becuase 5 players are capable of leading us in scoring on any given night. That's not in your analysis.
 
#128      
Tomi last 6 games from 3: 5-28, a whopping 17.8%
Big Z last 6 games from 3: 1-11, a whopping 9% (13 rebounds over that span, for a whopping 2 per game).
If you add his last 8 games from 3: 2-19... 10.5%

Collectively- what are they bringing? they aren't shooting well, don't play good defense, hardly rebound, aren't physically tough.. Tomi did have some nice passes today and has generally been rebounding better. But man alive- these are some bad stats
Knew this from the eye test. The worst is their defense honestly. Shooting blows hot and cold. You can get some unlucky bounces on rebounds. But there are not protecting the rim like they were earlier in the season. And on the stats front, both should have 5 rebounds per game minimum. Part of their lack of rebounding is that the opposing teams are scorching the nets against us.

It doesn't feel like the twins and Andrej want to be here next season.

Our team will be Mirk, Ty, and Jake plus a new rotation.
 
#129      
Mostly good outcomes here, assuming we face wisconsin.

1. We get another crack at trying to stop a team with quick penetrating guards before the NCAAT and avenge a prior loss.
2. If we win, another Q1 win and a chance for a marquee/confidence building win vs Michigan.
3. If we lose, we get an extra day to heal up/get over sicknesses etc.

Only bad outcome is if we get boat raced by 20. And unfortunately the way we’ve been playing this feels like a 20 point loss. We can’t stop any dribble penetration at all and even without Winter Wisconsin’s bigs have been on fire (8-13 against Purdue). If we can’t break out of our shooting funk I don’t see us making enough shots to keep up.

Hopefully a few more days of rest helps.
You think we’re losing to Wisconsin by 20 points?
 
#130      
I guarantee that our odd of winning any game would improve dramatically if Z learned to rebound with two hands. He gave up at least five rebounds in that Maryland game by not doing so.
While I wholeheartedly agree that Z needs to work on securing the ball and keeping it elevated and out of the way of the floor rats, there are numerous times during the game where his height and length allow him to get a hand on the ball where most others don't even try as it is fruitless. He can tip it out to teammates on the perimeter in those cases and seems like he is successful in getting that done and saving a possession once or twice a game.

But his weakness is having the creativeness with the ball to finish most of the time around the rim (other than a dunk) as well as lowering it to his waist too often where opposing guards can steal it. It is really surprising to me that he has not shown improvement in either regard during the season. It does not take much individual work to correct either. He should have scored about 20 more times at the rim and eliminated ball security issues by now....and I have no idea why not. I have no expectation of that happening henceforth. In spite of how much he can inspire this team, we will likely see him continue to fumble the ball away a couple of times a game. And yet for this team to reach its ceiling, he needs to be on the floor as much as possible and play blunder free. I love watching him play....most of the time.
 
#131      
I’ve never really understood the term “bad excuse” or “not an excuse” when it pertains to FACT. When something is 100% true, why use the term “excuse” to contextualize?

This is 1000% a FOUL. That’s literally 3 armbars just shoving him into the ground with a minute left in the game. Any other player in the B10 is getting that call.

View attachment 48144
Even on the shot — if you pay close attention, he miraculously re-gathers, but completely HACKED again:

View attachment 48145

Against Wisconsin — completely changed the course of the game. This is a FOUL. Should’ve been 2 FTs on one end, results in 2pts the other way… 4pt swing. What is this ref staring at???

View attachment 48146

Against Indiana — yes this wasn’t nearly as critical as the first two, but this might be the most egregious thing I’ve seen all year. Should’ve been a flagrant, but is somehow ruled a no call with High Knees standing 3ft away.

View attachment 48147

You could literally go on and on….
Keaton got away with an obvious foul when he swiped down on a Maryland player and got the hand in addition to the ball.

It's tiring to keep blaming refs. Sell it then. By this point, the coaching staff knows what is and isn't being consistently called. Don't have to go full Fears. But clearly, SGA/Brunson/Jokic at the NBA level and NCAA players have learned the necessary art to earn the whistle.

I don't blame Keaton in any way. But if the coaching staff is going to have him drive they need to pivot their strategic guidance. Definition of insanity not to at this point where every possession could make or break a season.

Data suggests it's possible Keaton gets even less calls in the NCAAs.
 
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#132      
I agree..We're in trouble not only in the BIG tournament but next week too...I have never been more down on this team than I am now
Not my take a all. The goal from the start was to learn to play at B1G level, learn how to compete against top 5 level talent, learn to play together and unselfishly, and get healthy enough to play your best in March. That has happened and we have seen it all happen. Resting for 5 or 6 days and focusing an playing both ends as a team with purpose and energy with the season on the line has a unique way of bringing out the best. I love this team, its makeup, and its ceiling. We have seldom if ever seen them at their best. So why not now?

My biggest hope is for Tomi to spend some time at the arc this week until he can make every shot hit inside the hoop...that is the mark of an elite shooter, in spite of what BU says. When Tomi is hitting shots, this team flys. I would feel it is a pretty good bet they all spend some time on making shots....not just shooting shots.
 
#133      
Keaton got away with an obvious foul when he swiped down on a Maryland player and got the hand in addition to the ball.

It's tiring to keep blaming refs. Sell it then. By this point, the coaching staff knows what is and isn't being consistently called. Don't have to go full Fears. But clearly, SGA/Brunson/Jokic at the NBA level and NCAA players have learned the necessary art to earn the whistle.

I don't blame Keaton in any way. But if the coaching staff is going to have him drive they need to pivot their strategic guidance. Definition of insanity not to at this point where every possession could make or break a season.

Data suggests it's possible Keaton gets even less calls in the NCAAs.

Doesn’t this data actually favor Illinois come tournament time? They don’t get a ton of free throws as is - so don’t really rely on it.
 
#135      
Doesn’t this data actually favor Illinois come tournament time? They don’t get a ton of free throws as is - so don’t really rely on it.
Fly Illini Fly’s whole premise was showing examples of 3 B1G games with egregious non-calls on KW.

Spoiler alert… it’s going to be worse in the NCAA. Imagine a 5-pt game with 3’min to go in the R32 vs. a 7-seed (so potentially an AP Top 25 team). KW drives like he has been all season. The refs will NOT bail him out because of a hip-to-hip bump or a forearm shiver from the defender.

He either needs to play through contact and finish the play (shoot or dish) OR he needs to flail like Fears/Brunson.

Andrej does the latter. Flails his arms up. Both of them when stripped in the lane. More often than not - he isn’t getting the call.

You need to drive into the chest of the opposing player, not over-do it to the point it’s called an offensive fail, then physically react off that contact (ie fall to the ground). It’s an art. One that more athletic players leverage more effectively than KW.
 
#136      
Fly Illini Fly’s whole premise was showing examples of 3 B1G games with egregious non-calls on KW.

Spoiler alert… it’s going to be worse in the NCAA. Imagine a 5-pt game with 3’min to go in the R32 vs. a 7-seed (so potentially an AP Top 25 team). KW drives like he has been all season. The refs will NOT bail him out because of a hip-to-hip bump or a forearm shiver from the defender.

He either needs to play through contact and finish the play (shoot or dish) OR he needs to flail like Fears/Brunson.

Andrej does the latter. Flails his arms up. Both of them when stripped in the lane. More often than not - he isn’t getting the call.

You need to drive into the chest of the opposing player, not over-do it to the point it’s called an offensive fail, then physically react off that contact (ie fall to the ground). It’s an art. One that more athletic players leverage more effectively than KW.

Please no.

Counterpoint, imagine the same scenario. Instead Keaton flops, and is called for a travel or lose the ball and opponent gets a fast break as he’s flailing on the ground. We don’t get a shot up. Or a chance at an offensive rebound. And he looks like a total fool.

I feel kinda the opposite on fears. I think once we’re done with big ten refs, come tourney time, as your 2021 data shows, the whistle will be swallowed on the artist that is Jeremy fears.

We shall see though.
 
#137      
The first contract was all ball. If you get all ball first, the proceeding contact to the wrist is allowed.
My point is that can and has been called a foul in other similar instances. The refs aren’t out to get KW.

There is an art to drawing fouls in drives. Or BU needs to do a better job of submitted feedback to the league.
 
#138      
I’ve never really understood the term “bad excuse” or “not an excuse” when it pertains to FACT. When something is 100% true, why use the term “excuse” to contextualize?

This is 1000% a FOUL. That’s literally 3 armbars just shoving him into the ground with a minute left in the game. Any other player in the B10 is getting that call.

View attachment 48144
Even on the shot — if you pay close attention, he miraculously re-gathers, but completely HACKED again:

View attachment 48145

Against Wisconsin — completely changed the course of the game. This is a FOUL. Should’ve been 2 FTs on one end, results in 2pts the other way… 4pt swing. What is this ref staring at???

View attachment 48146

Against Indiana — yes this wasn’t nearly as critical as the first two, but this might be the most egregious thing I’ve seen all year. Should’ve been a flagrant, but is somehow ruled a no call with High Knees standing 3ft away.

View attachment 48147

You could literally go on and on….
On the first picture, watch #13’s leg/knee after Keaton makes that spin move.
 
#139      
Please no.

Counterpoint, imagine the same scenario. Instead Keaton flops, and is called for a travel or lose the ball and opponent gets a fast break as he’s flailing on the ground. We don’t get a shot up. Or a chance at an offensive rebound. And he looks like a total fool.

I feel kinda the opposite on fears. I think once we’re done with big ten refs, come tourney time, as your 2021 data shows, the whistle will be swallowed on the artist that is Jeremy fears.

We shall see though.

Right, I think (hope) the officiating will be better as a whole and he will get these calls

The GIFs he shared weren’t “you gotta drive into the chest then flail” type of plays, it was literally him getting whacked in the head or shoved in the back out of bounds

His FT rate is already very good 6.2 FTA/g on only 11.8 FGA/g so drawing fouls is literally already a strength of his
 
#141      
Mostly good outcomes here, assuming we face wisconsin.

1. We get another crack at trying to stop a team with quick penetrating guards before the NCAAT and avenge a prior loss.
2. If we win, another Q1 win and a chance for a marquee/confidence building win vs Michigan.
3. If we lose, we get an extra day to heal up/get over sicknesses etc.

Only bad outcome is if we get boat raced by 20. And unfortunately the way we’ve been playing this feels like a 20 point loss. We can’t stop any dribble penetration at all and even without Winter Wisconsin’s bigs have been on fire (8-13 against Purdue). If we can’t break out of our shooting funk I don’t see us making enough shots to keep up.

Hopefully a few more days of rest helps.
Honest question, would you rather have Wisconsin’s roster than ours heading into the tournament since you expect them to boat race us?
I’m going to go out on a limb and say, other than the people in the Wisconsin locker room, not a whole lot of people around the country would agree with you
 
#142      
Yep, you couldn't be more right, or maybe not. Wagler scoring 18 / game since MSU. Michigan had Yaxel guarding him and held him to 23. The game Illinois plays doesn't revolve around any one player. We average almost 61 shots per game. Wagler about 14 / game. - I am not seeing the trail off you are. Nor am I seeing him unable to compete at the next level.

This team wins becuase 5 players are capable of leading us in scoring on any given night. That's not in your analysis.
You have to look at the guy getting the bulk of the shots and his efficiency. The regression since the IU game has been obvious.

MSU. 2 for 16
Wisconsin 12 for 23(really solid)
Indiana. 7 for 15 (solid)
USC. 3 for 8
UCLA. 5 of 15
Michigan. 7 for 17
Oregon. 4 of 11
Maryland. 3 of 10

You can see the trend. Yes, when you have a star, the game plan does indeed revolve around him. What's interesting is that since we've gotten "whole" (USC), his numbers have dipped. Not sure what the reason is, but while he doesn't have to be the Purdue Wagler, he does need to be the Indiana/Wisconsin Wagler. Finish at the rim, get to the line, hit the open three, don't force shots and distribute the ball before the double comes. Recently, the ball sticks when it gets to him.

Then, defensively, he's got to be better. He plays a position where he's going to be drawing some serious athletes. If he's a lottery pick, this is his team.
 
#143      
I’ve never really understood the term “bad excuse” or “not an excuse” when it pertains to FACT. When something is 100% true, why use the term “excuse” to contextualize?

This is 1000% a FOUL. That’s literally 3 armbars just shoving him into the ground with a minute left in the game. Any other player in the B10 is getting that call.

View attachment 48144
Even on the shot — if you pay close attention, he miraculously re-gathers, but completely HACKED again:

View attachment 48145

Against Wisconsin — completely changed the course of the game. This is a FOUL. Should’ve been 2 FTs on one end, results in 2pts the other way… 4pt swing. What is this ref staring at???

View attachment 48146

Against Indiana — yes this wasn’t nearly as critical as the first two, but this might be the most egregious thing I’ve seen all year. Should’ve been a flagrant, but is somehow ruled a no call with High Knees standing 3ft away.

View attachment 48147

You could literally go on and on….
It's an excuse because it it's not called, it's not a foul. He has missed his share of layups and the vast majority of the clips, to me, he drove into traffic. We can't cherry pick plays, which you did. My guess(purely a guess), is that he's also gotten to the line on calls the the other team didn't like. It evens out.

A bad non-call isn't a foul and foul call with minimal to no contact is still a foul. Live with the calls in both directions.
 
#144      
Is this just me or does it feel like you’ve been trying to forecast Wagler’s downfall for literally the entire season? I swear it started off with calling for Petro to start over him back in November, and even on our 12 game winning streak, you always had comments subtly undermining Keaton. Just a tad weird to me.

I mean… that’s not true at all? Yes he had more dunks, but that’s because he’s 6”9. Majority of Will’s points came from operating out of the mid post. He wasn’t a great shooter (32% from 3pt) but was very crafty (a bit like Domask) and was a solid decision maker.

I actually recall him being pretty limited athletically.
I hear what you're saying and I'm sure that I'm coming across as negative, but I've been worried about this for a long time. We were riding the coattails of a true freshman, who is not anywhere near developed. If anything, I've been throwing his teammates under the bus, because this shouldn't be the case. A freshman shouldn't have this type of stress on his shoulders. Here we are in March and let's be honest, he looks absolutely spent and I don't blame him. His efficiency has gone down and now the amount of shots he's getting up has gone down. Is it coincidence? Perhaps. Does he need to return to to January Keaton for this team to really make a push. Absolutely.

It is what it is at this point. He's the card we have to play and he's earned it. However, can be physically handle it. Time will tell.
 
#146      
Mostly good outcomes here, assuming we face wisconsin.

1. We get another crack at trying to stop a team with quick penetrating guards before the NCAAT and avenge a prior loss.
2. If we win, another Q1 win and a chance for a marquee/confidence building win vs Michigan.
3. If we lose, we get an extra day to heal up/get over sicknesses etc.

Only bad outcome is if we get boat raced by 20. And unfortunately the way we’ve been playing this feels like a 20 point loss. We can’t stop any dribble penetration at all and even without Winter Wisconsin’s bigs have been on fire (8-13 against Purdue). If we can’t break out of our shooting funk I don’t see us making enough shots to keep up.

Hopefully a few more days of rest helps.
Not tracking at all here. Illini played arguably their worst game against a red hot Michigan team and did not lose by that margin.

Can Wisconsin beat Illini, yes, but a perfect storm needed to happen for Wisconsin to win in Champaign, and it did (with Illini missing two key players). I really expect the Illini to jump on Wisconsin in a potential rematch, and if they do happen to lose, it will be a close game.
 
#147      
Honest question, would you rather have Wisconsin’s roster than ours heading into the tournament since you expect them to boat race us?
I’m going to go out on a limb and say, other than the people in the Wisconsin locker room, not a whole lot of people around the country would agree with you
I look at what Wisconsin has done well to win @ Purdue, @ our place and @Michigan and that's a mirror image of how we try to play. We want to create matchup issues and space with bigs who can shoot. Theirs have gone nuclear in a couple of games and Blackwell/Boyd are a load.

I like our players that played in the first 12 minutes vs UCLA, not the ones that played the remainder of the game. That truly shows how volatile our offense AND defense can be. It's Heckyl and Hyde for us. We need to get on a heater.
 
#148      
I look at what Wisconsin has done well to win @ Purdue, @ our place and @Michigan and that's a mirror image of how we try to play. We want to create matchup issues and space with bigs who can shoot. Theirs have gone nuclear in a couple of games and Blackwell/Boyd are a load.

I like our players that played in the first 12 minutes vs UCLA, not the ones that played the remainder of the game. That truly shows how volatile our offense AND defense can be. It's Heckyl and Hyde for us. We need to get on a heater.
You do realize Wisconsin also just got their doors blown off against a terrible Oregon team, right?
 
#149      
I don't get it, honestly? Wisconsin was our worst loss of the season... was a Q2 loss until yesterday, I believe. We were playing better when we took our worst loss of the whole season?

Illinois shot 5/24 from 3, that's what happened. We didn't play poorly overall.

21/31 (68% from 2)
21/26 (81% from FT line)
12 off rebs on 29 misses (41.4% off reb rate)
7 turnovers (3 below season average)
5 steals, 3 blocks
12 personal fouls (20 for Maryland)

What did you guys not see? Answer: 3 point shots swishing through the net.

Never take a road game for granted in big boy college basketball. UConn shot poorly on Saturday and took a 6 point loss vs an 11-19 Marquette team.

I honestly am starting to think it is just this style of play with the crashing the offensive glass that gives casual fans the heebie jeebies. Imagine turning on a basketball game and:

missed shot
offensive reb
missed shot
offensive reb
missed shot
offensive reb
made shot

The team scored 2 points on that possession, but to the casual observer you might as well put some circus music in the background and call it a blooper reel.

Honestly thinking we were playing better with two 13 ppg scorers out and taking our worst loss of the season is very wild take imo. Why can't we just admit Maryland (Andre Mills, in particular) played their hind ends off and we escaped a UConn vs Marquette type loss?
This might be the best post in Loyalty history. Could not agree more. Who cares if it went in on the 1st attempt or the 4th attempt. Points are points.
 
#150      
I hear what you're saying and I'm sure that I'm coming across as negative, but I've been worried about this for a long time. We were riding the coattails of a true freshman, who is not anywhere near developed. If anything, I've been throwing his teammates under the bus, because this shouldn't be the case. A freshman shouldn't have this type of stress on his shoulders. Here we are in March and let's be honest, he looks absolutely spent and I don't blame him. His efficiency has gone down and now the amount of shots he's getting up has gone down. Is it coincidence? Perhaps. Does he need to return to to January Keaton for this team to really make a push. Absolutely.

It is what it is at this point. He's the card we have to play and he's earned it. However, can be physically handle it. Time will tell.
I guess this is what I don’t agree with. Your logic is basically a freshman can never be our best player — no ifs ands or buts about it. No matter how much anyone proves themselves, if you’re a freshman — end of discussion.

What about Flemings at Houston? Or Burries at Arizona? Or Acuff at Arkansas? All are in the same tier as Wagler in terms of dominant freshman (I’ll exclude the Dybantsa/Peterson/Boozer grouping just for the sake of it).

Maybe you are right, as Illinois hasn’t had that guy before. KJ seemed like a nice hopeful last year, but wasn’t great at the end. It’s just super obvious that Wagler is significantly more polished — just compare the assist to turnover and 3pt percentages (yes I get he hasn’t shot it well lately, still very impressive to be at 41%).

Keaton has TWO games this year with more than 3 turnovers. Kasparas had SIXTEEN.
 
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