Pregame: Illinois vs Wisconsin, Friday, March 13th, 1:30pm CT, BTN
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Goillinikobd
- Southeastern US
Based on recent performance, we are much more likely to lose by 20 than win. I put the margin range at -20 to +6 if we meet Wisconsin this weekend
And the win @Nebraska.
What am I missing, what happened?
Time to put up or shut up. Great guard play wins in March. If we are scared of Wisconsin we have a first weekend exit mindset.
We can and should beat them.
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
Another problem with the Quad system...USC at fuller strength early in the year is absolutely a Q1 level game. Them dropping to Q2 after many injuries doesnt change the quality of that win at the time. But of course resumes wont reflect that.
(This doesnt change for us, we played them while they were very injured)
He stuck out his knee to impede Wagler from going to his left and almost lifted him off the ground.
I agree 100000% that teams have had freshman take them all of the way to the finish line and I'm just now getting my hair back and off of blood thinners from KJ last year. You're all right that I'm not used to a guy from our team being able to do that, especially if the goal, at minimum(not me) is sweet 16 or bust.
My concern, as you are 100% right, it has been since the beginning of the year, is that he's going to wear down.
For me, yes, the shooting percentages are down, but that can happen. It's part of the deal given how we're constructed. However, it's his volume of shots that has gone down, he's not getting to the foul line as often because he's not taking it to the basket with authority and when he gets there, he's free throws SEEM to be coming up short(that is complete perception, I have no facts to prove that) and of significant importance, they're going right at him defensively and he doesn't seem to have an answer. He looks slow getting in front and stopping straight line drives, guys are getting to the bucket and finishing with relative ease, then he slaps vs really challenge and we're seeing "and ones" vs good hard fouls.
He's clearly become the opponents #1 assignment when we're on offense. They are blitzing him the second he gets the ball, which is VERY difficult to handle as a young guy, but as a guy with experience, he's sees it and recognizing if there's two guys on him and it's skip pass, one more skip and a wide open jumper for someone or a layup. The ball also seems to be sticking. It's dribble up top top while the shot clock runs down, then we get into the office. The whole did a lot of that was Skyy Clark(I am absolutely not comparing their games, it's not even close). He'd be 35 feet from the hoop and now it's a fire drill.
It is EXTREMELY possible that I'm more concerned about him because he carried us God darn near 3 months. He's been unreal and the NBA agrees. I also see that he's being leaned on and the tank looks to be running low. Having a limited schedule over the next couple of weeks could be just what the doctor ordered.
He’s gotta be hurt or tired or probably both right? I’ve been concerned about BU running these top 8 guys into the ground, especially with Dre and Bos missing time. I was wanting Lee/Petro for at least 5-6 minutes a game
100%. I'll be at the game and I'm praying that I'm leaving session 6 without my face being red They definitely seem boom or bust, which is us and their bigs are a problem. They also have the quick as a mouse PG that we can have issues with.
I feel like Wisconsin will be a 6 seed, that could lose to an 11 if the team vs Oregon shows up(much like you said), but they can also be sitting in the Sweet 16 if @ Purdue, @ Michigan or @ or gym shows up. We were only running with 5, so we can probably throw that one in the trash.
They also have an experienced Blackwell, who is really thriving and we have Keaton who seems to be hitting a wall. Again, I can be TOTALLY wrong here.
I'm trained, like everyone else, to think the worst, but maybe we come out with our hair on fire and we carry it for 40 minutes.
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Agreed, but this is the pick-your-poison of putting so much weight in analytics. It is billed as more objective (and in most ways, it is), but it will leave out some "common sense adjustments." As someone who works in valuation and quite obviously relies on data, analytics, math, etc. more than subjectivity in many ways, no "system" - no matter how sophisticated or well thought out - is worth a damn if it isn't being monitored, interpreted and critiqued by people with good background knowledge. I actually give the Committee props most years in that they do seem to try to use all of the computer rankings and whatnot as a way to wrap their heads around the resumes, but then I do imagine them having a lot of tough conversations that involve more subjective arguments for why teams should be seeded where they are.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
"It's just this war and that lying SOB Johnson!!"Some folks don’t seem to have the psychological makeup to care about sports in a healthy way.
Go, Illini! Let’s rock out the postseason!
or:
"It's just this impending tournament and that lying SOB Steve Smith!!"
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Torvik ratings for E8 team vs this team:
23-24 team going into BTT: #13 overall, #4 offense, #76 defense
25-26 team going into BTT: #6 overall, #1 offense, #24 defense
23-24 team last 6 reg season games: #21 overall, #7 offense, #164 defense
25-26 team last 6 reg season games: #5 overall, #7 offense, #35 defense
23-24 team going into BTT: #13 overall, #4 offense, #76 defense
25-26 team going into BTT: #6 overall, #1 offense, #24 defense
23-24 team last 6 reg season games: #21 overall, #7 offense, #164 defense
25-26 team last 6 reg season games: #5 overall, #7 offense, #35 defense
PizzaHutParkingLot
- Vodice, Croatia
The only thing that gives me pause when comparing these two teams is that the ’24 squad had a true locomotive in Terrence Shannon Jr. who could will them to success.
Hopefully the collective efforts of Keaton, the Balkans, and Kylan can push this group even further
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The Quad system isn't analytics IMO. It may start with analytics (NET ranking), but then obscures it with something I guess the non-analytics crowd prefers. Why go through all that trouble when the various ranking systems tell a simpler and more accurate story?
And there are advanced metrics that take injuries into account (EvanMiya, which evaluates each game according to the roster that played that day), so the tools are there, but they just aren't being used.
Nice article by Loren Tate on his Opinion where this team at going into March
Loren Tate | Illini gather themselves for March run
Loren Tate | Illini gather themselves for March run
He pretty much nailed all of the concerns. Pretty sure that we all know that hoping to get hot and stay hot for 4 straight is extremely unlikely. What's mystifying is that when they do make an effort to pound the ball in the paint, they don't stick with. Working in the paint, then kicking it out is going go to create much better looks and it's much tougher to defend. They just won't stick with it and I'm not sure why.
Defensively, that was going to be an issue and we knew that back in July. The lack of foot speed and athleticism is a problem that is incredibly tough to overcome. The last two years, when we faced big, athletic and explosive front courts....we struggled. I was 8 rows off the floor in Milwaukee vs Kentucky. If was men against boys. They got what they wanted, whenever they wanted if. Watching Oweh get into the lane and hit little floater, especially when we were making a little push, was frustrating.
We'll see what happens this year, but it sure seems as though the same flaws are there.
Hope Tate is wrong.
Retro62
- North Bethesda, Maryland
I agree in theory, but I was there for this particular game and was very close to the court. He lost a few he could have had both hands on easily.
Save them for Saturday if you don’t want to do laundry.
Some folks don’t seem to have the psychological makeup to care about sports in a healthy way.
Go, Illini! Let’s rock out the postseason!
Terrific post.
I'm curious to see if the double 3pt lines affect us again at UC.
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