The more I think about this game, the more "essential" it becomes (at least for me) in determining what type of season we are going to have. Purdue has had our number in recent history, and it is never easy to win on the road. With that said, they could be 1-3 (0-1) with us coming to town if they lose to Wisconsin - a series the Boilermakers have lost 17 games in a row! - and desperate for a win. Add to that the component of Walters looking to beat us as his "turnaround game," and I think a lot of pressure could be on both teams to "save their seasons," so to speak.
Both Purdue and Illinois probably wish their seasons had started off "a little better," but it REALLY looks like we have played a slightly tougher version of their schedule and passed the eye test a little better.
ILLINOIS
W vs. Toledo (2-0 outside of Illinois)
L at Kansas (2-0 outside of Illinois)
L vs. #7 Penn State (2-0 outside of Illinois)
- Toledo will be favored in all of its remaining games and is projected to be 11-1 on the year. Regardless of our feelings about the game, this looks like a genuinely "good win."
- Kansas is a bit more of a mystery, as there are a lot of tossup games on their schedule, IMO; however, they are receiving votes in the AP poll! Considering it was on the road, this is in no way a bad loss (at least not yet).
- PSU just might be the best team in the Big Ten, but it's impossible to tell just yet. Either way, while I know nobody likes a "moral victory" and we CANNOT turn the ball over like that regularly and win games, I venture to say a lot of us were pleasantly surprised that we were in a genuine game with a top 10 team in the third quarter before we coughed over our FIFTH turnover. To exhaust what has been said, if we can clean up the mistakes, the PSU result can be encouraging ... if not, our record will be "meh."
PURDUE
L vs. Fresno State (2-0 outside of Purdue)
W at Virginia Tech (1-1 outside of Purdue)
L vs. Syracuse (2-0 outside of Purdue)
- The Fresno State result might not be that bad for Purdue, as they are now receiving votes and just hammered ASU in Tempe ... then again, ASU looks terrible. The main point is, though, that we BEAT our "good mid-major opponent" at home, and Purdue did not.
- A road win is always impressive, but I think Virginia Tech might be pretty terrible ... they just got absolutely smoked by a Rutgers team that underwhelmed vs. what might be a historically bad Northwestern (knock on wood).
- People seem to be hyping up Syracuse again, but they have had hot starts recently with little to show for it. And, either way, they are no PSU by any measure, and they beat Purdue somewhat systematically, IMO - got up 14-0 and answered every single time Purdue threatened.
1. So, we both had a scare vs. a potentially very good "mid-major" team, but we won and they didn't.
2. We both had a road test vs. another Power Five team, with Purdue winning and us losing. However, I would venture to say that Kansas is leagues better than Virginia Tech.
3. We each hosted another Power Five team at home and lost by 15-17 points. Purdue lost to a maybe-kind-of-good Syracuse, and we lost to top 10 Penn State.
I'm cautiously optimistic (assuming we can beat FAU...), but I honestly don't really know what to expect. What I DO know is that we simply cannot drop our first Big Ten West game to Ryan Walters and Purdue given we didn't get the W vs. PSU or Kansas ... period!