Home
Forums
New Posts
Illini Basketball
Illini Football
Sports Talk
Log in
Register
What's new
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Forums
Sports
Illini Basketball
Recruiting Talent vs. Conference Standings
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Second and Chalmers" data-source="post: 1410075" data-attributes="member: 527609"><p>It all kinda depends on precisely the question you're trying to ask, right? You weight it in the way you've suggested and the question becomes "to what extent did highly ranked players contribute to the various teams?". But then as others said, if a lesser ranked player is keeping a higher ranked one on the bench (see: Trent Meacham and Alex Legion) that might become a bit deceptive depending on what you're trying to study. If you're really trying to isolate the effect of "roster quality" as separate from "coaching effects" you would surely want to incorporate what class the various players are, with seniors being more valuable than freshmen.</p><p></p><p>If you really wanted to drill down on the idea of "talent", it would probably be wise to mix in post-college results, draft picks, NBA careers, something.</p><p></p><p>All of these would be very interesting and instructive, and present an answer to a slightly different question.</p><p></p><p>What Soupy has done answers the question "How strong was the recruiting reflected in these rosters?". It's just the raw recruiting data, unconcerned with how *good* the many other factors made those players and those teams. It would be a little bit more robust if we could eliminate guys who were in redshirt sit-out years or who missed entire seasons due to injury, but that stuff happens everywhere, it probably washes out of the data relatively well. (It would also be a ton of work, and Soupy has already put a heroic amount of effort to this)</p><p></p><p>What this data just thoroughly and comprehensively demolishes is the narrative of the last decade here that "we need to recruit better than we have to succeed, we have to break into a higher level on the recruiting trail BEFORE we can reasonably expect improvement". To be totally honest, when I started reading this I was worried the data was going to be much worse for my argument. Even I have started to just accept things like "Of course 2007 RSCI #35 Kalin Lucas was an era-defining Big Ten superstar while 2009 RSCI #35 DJ Richardson was a limited, marginal player, MSU just recruits better than us". Even I need to be reminded what a total lie that is from time to time.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Obviously we're fighting against youth, inexperience, and extreme positional imbalance in turning our raw recruiting level into wins this year. But looking at these numbers, you've gotta feel pretty optimistic about our future if, IF, we can A. keep all our talented players for the future and B. add some nice pieces in the frontcourt over the next year. Especially if we can improve the staff, I just refuse to believe Underwood is going to keep up this streak of -4's. There's no way. The roster might fall apart, but not crazy underperformance of our talent levels. I realize last year refutes me, but whatever, that was just a vortex of terrible from which nothing could escape.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Second and Chalmers, post: 1410075, member: 527609"] It all kinda depends on precisely the question you're trying to ask, right? You weight it in the way you've suggested and the question becomes "to what extent did highly ranked players contribute to the various teams?". But then as others said, if a lesser ranked player is keeping a higher ranked one on the bench (see: Trent Meacham and Alex Legion) that might become a bit deceptive depending on what you're trying to study. If you're really trying to isolate the effect of "roster quality" as separate from "coaching effects" you would surely want to incorporate what class the various players are, with seniors being more valuable than freshmen. If you really wanted to drill down on the idea of "talent", it would probably be wise to mix in post-college results, draft picks, NBA careers, something. All of these would be very interesting and instructive, and present an answer to a slightly different question. What Soupy has done answers the question "How strong was the recruiting reflected in these rosters?". It's just the raw recruiting data, unconcerned with how *good* the many other factors made those players and those teams. It would be a little bit more robust if we could eliminate guys who were in redshirt sit-out years or who missed entire seasons due to injury, but that stuff happens everywhere, it probably washes out of the data relatively well. (It would also be a ton of work, and Soupy has already put a heroic amount of effort to this) What this data just thoroughly and comprehensively demolishes is the narrative of the last decade here that "we need to recruit better than we have to succeed, we have to break into a higher level on the recruiting trail BEFORE we can reasonably expect improvement". To be totally honest, when I started reading this I was worried the data was going to be much worse for my argument. Even I have started to just accept things like "Of course 2007 RSCI #35 Kalin Lucas was an era-defining Big Ten superstar while 2009 RSCI #35 DJ Richardson was a limited, marginal player, MSU just recruits better than us". Even I need to be reminded what a total lie that is from time to time. Obviously we're fighting against youth, inexperience, and extreme positional imbalance in turning our raw recruiting level into wins this year. But looking at these numbers, you've gotta feel pretty optimistic about our future if, IF, we can A. keep all our talented players for the future and B. add some nice pieces in the frontcourt over the next year. Especially if we can improve the staff, I just refuse to believe Underwood is going to keep up this streak of -4's. There's no way. The roster might fall apart, but not crazy underperformance of our talent levels. I realize last year refutes me, but whatever, that was just a vortex of terrible from which nothing could escape. [/QUOTE]
Verification
Post reply
Forums
Sports
Illini Basketball
Recruiting Talent vs. Conference Standings
This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
Accept
Learn more…