I think I might take that bet.
Rutgers 82, Illinois 73 Postgame
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I don't think anyone is arguing with Brad's success, but we have the greatest collection of talent we've had in 20+ years and after a hot start, we are floundering. Unless we have TJ, or Kofi, or Ayo, we really struggle.
The main complaint of fans now is that our offense looks absolutely broken and our defense is giving up multiple back cuts every game like it's 4th grade. Who is in charge of implementing the offense? Tyler Underwood. Our scheme of shooting volume threes has continued to be our scheme even though we are absolutely terrible at it. Most of us are upset that Tyler was given such an important position regardless of his capabilities. The same goes for Hamer.
With high turnover among assistants, it seems that Brad may have issues with trusting others to run his systems and therefore has hired two guys that will do as he asks. If Brad is more CEO than X and O, then he needs to delegate. That's what Bret excels at. The problem now is that he's delegating to guys that can't fix the problems because they don't know how.
Brad has one year to get new assistants and show sustainable success before his seat gets hot. Losing 80% of your staff and roster every year isn't a recipe for success. This may be a 2 year plan like when we got TJ, but KJ is gone and Will is trending that way more every game. Morez is still on the fence. Maybe you have KB, Dra, and Tomi? That's a decent, not great base with two short guards.
Hopefully Brad sees it and gets some awesome assistants and we are back in business next season. Brad has been great for our program, but his stubbornness has continued to be his biggest weakness.
The main complaint of fans now is that our offense looks absolutely broken and our defense is giving up multiple back cuts every game like it's 4th grade. Who is in charge of implementing the offense? Tyler Underwood. Our scheme of shooting volume threes has continued to be our scheme even though we are absolutely terrible at it. Most of us are upset that Tyler was given such an important position regardless of his capabilities. The same goes for Hamer.
With high turnover among assistants, it seems that Brad may have issues with trusting others to run his systems and therefore has hired two guys that will do as he asks. If Brad is more CEO than X and O, then he needs to delegate. That's what Bret excels at. The problem now is that he's delegating to guys that can't fix the problems because they don't know how.
Brad has one year to get new assistants and show sustainable success before his seat gets hot. Losing 80% of your staff and roster every year isn't a recipe for success. This may be a 2 year plan like when we got TJ, but KJ is gone and Will is trending that way more every game. Morez is still on the fence. Maybe you have KB, Dra, and Tomi? That's a decent, not great base with two short guards.
Hopefully Brad sees it and gets some awesome assistants and we are back in business next season. Brad has been great for our program, but his stubbornness has continued to be his biggest weakness.
I was trolling earlier with my "warm, very warm" comment, but this is the point. Although I do not believe he will be fired after this season, I do believe his seat is heating up. This is shaping up to be similar to the 22-23 season and the boosters and JW cannot be happy. It's not like these seasons occurred several years apart. Boosters want positive ROI and, despite last year's tourney run, this has to raise some red flags.
Pretty much the way I see it. It's all relavtive.
Compared to Weber and Groce - Underwood is a huge improvement.
Compared to Historical expectations - Underwood is on par - how quickly we forget that Illinois BB is number 13th in all time wins and all time win % in the NCAA
Compared to top 10 paid and top 10 NIL - I could argue that Underwood is slightly underacheiving.
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I feel the opposite. The quality of our 3 point shots for the most part is poor. That's 100% due to lack of a coherent half court offense.
I don't have the numbers, but I'd love to see percentage of 3's taken off the bounce vs off the catch. I bet the former is like 70% or more. And that tells you everything you need to know about the quality of shot.
Bingo … And if changes are not made to the staff …
There will be a major problem getting the same amount of NIL $$$ Brad got last off season …
That’s where Whitman will step in …
Not at all … But the level of concern is rising … 2 out of the last 3 years, we’ve underachieved with extremely talented rosters … Arguably the most talented rosters in the Big Ten …
We finish the year losing 7 of our last 8 … While I don’t think it’ll happen, I’ve been wrong before and there’s no easy one outside of maybe Iowa and if you’re already riding a losing streak … It could get real interesting …
Hopefully the guys and staff figured it out in practice this week and are ready for Minnesota …
Yes. Being better than Groce isn't good enough. Just making the tournament isn't good enough either. Fortunately, BU is outperforming those low bars by pretty decent margins and has the team at a level close to our historical high water mark. Here's an infographic I update each year to illustrate that.
Well yes, if the theoretical is we literally lose every single game except one the rest of the season, then of course lol. But forecasting that seems like we are jumping the gun a bit.
I'm not sure what we can figure out in practice to magically fix 20% three point shooting. We absolutely can (or should) be able to fix the turnovers / lack of focus though.
JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
- Chicago
What is the scale on the vertical axis?
It's basically a point system I created to standardize seasons across eras. 100 is a perfect season. Full point system and methodology is in this thread.
That is my line of thinking.
I was thinking about UConn also. But go back and look at some of the offense Illinois ran when Coach Underwood first came here. There is stuff in the arsenal in my view, but they are married to this offensive concept.
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
Multiple things can be completely correct at the same time.
1) Brad Underwood is nowhere close to being on a hot seat as Illinois head basketball coach.
2) The inconsistency and underachievement in two of the last three seasons is not acceptable, and there are at least some changes that should be considered to keep the program moving toward a consistent and sustainable level.
3) The current staff does not appear to have the appropriate game tactical understanding to make adjustments over the course of a game or to adapt to a Plan B when Plan A (volume three-point shooting) is clearly not working, so upgrading the staff with at least one assistant who can bring this seems to be a good consideration.
1) Brad Underwood is nowhere close to being on a hot seat as Illinois head basketball coach.
2) The inconsistency and underachievement in two of the last three seasons is not acceptable, and there are at least some changes that should be considered to keep the program moving toward a consistent and sustainable level.
3) The current staff does not appear to have the appropriate game tactical understanding to make adjustments over the course of a game or to adapt to a Plan B when Plan A (volume three-point shooting) is clearly not working, so upgrading the staff with at least one assistant who can bring this seems to be a good consideration.
Tyler got a lot of credit last year for being the driving force behind going all in with booty ball, don't think he's a Bronny/Miles Smith level nepo hire but the ability to not adapt this season is concerning.
The real concern for me has always been Hamer, until he got put in charge of our defense, I felt we at least always played tough and solid D once Brad gave up on his intense pressure style. Dude isn't a plus recruiter, hasn't moved the needle on X's and Os, and doesnt bring any great experience to our bench.
Why is this dude on our staff again? Seeing him on the bench next to OA is like parking your crappy beater next to a Lambo.
The real concern for me has always been Hamer, until he got put in charge of our defense, I felt we at least always played tough and solid D once Brad gave up on his intense pressure style. Dude isn't a plus recruiter, hasn't moved the needle on X's and Os, and doesnt bring any great experience to our bench.
Why is this dude on our staff again? Seeing him on the bench next to OA is like parking your crappy beater next to a Lambo.
We actually did exactly that against Ohio State. After a putrid showing from 3 in the first half, we only shot 5 total in the 2nd half which resulted in a 51-37 advantage.
But, then we started 2-17 against Rutgers and we just kept firing for some reason.
If there's anything that makes BU look silly this season its the comments prior to any games being played talking about how this team will smash 3 point shooting records. They may yet set some 3 point shooting records, just not in the way he described lol
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
And that's why I'm concerned. Why couldn't they have adjusted like they did against OSU, particularly with a decided size advantage?
Honestly, I would have gone into that game looking to hammer an undersized Rutgers team inside and used that to open up the three-point shooting. First 5-10 minutes of the game, I would have mandated someone got a touch within the free throw lane area. When they came out with the noon ball offense chucking 3s, I was slack-jawed openly saying to the TV, "Why aren't we doing what we did against OSU in the 2nd half?"
I sure don't claim to be a tactical basketball savant, but even I could see that. I don't understand why the staff didn't see it.
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I think the thing that can be fixed about 20% 3 point shooting is to shoot less of them. Practice driving the ball, entry pass into the lane, and then either finish the play, or kick it out for a catch and shoot three. Eliminate the step back threes except in a shot clock necessity. For the year, the Illini score 1.13 points for every 2 point shot taken, but only .92 points for every 3 point shot taken. Most really good teams don't have this disparity, and the ones who do shouldn't be focused on what is giving less production. Paradoxically, IMO, one of the worst outcomes for the rest of this year would be for us to go off on 3 pt shots against Minny. While it would win that single game, it would also probably ensure that the 3 point heavy shooting would be with us the rest of the season. I don't think this team will ever shoot the 3 consistently enough for that strategy to carry us very far. JMHO
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Sadly since Weber took over the program in 2003, the Illini have only made the second weekend of the tourney three times. The first two years of Weber (largely based off of Self's recruits) and last season. We made the NCAA Tournament 11 times over that timeframe, but yet could not get through the first weekend 8 times. Making the S16 or better only 3 times in 21 seasons is unacceptable. If the Illini do not make the second weekend again this year, it is largely a disappointment, because 20% success rate (for Brad and Co.) of making the second weekend with the talent that the team has had is not good. I know it is difficult to make the second weekend of the tourney consistently, but the Illini making the second weekend of the tourney is a rarity today (and we are striving for much better, especially considering the dough spent on the coaching staff and NIL). No doubt, Brad has brought stability and success back to the program (in regular season and conference play), but too much is being spent to consistently be a first weekend only team. If that means changes need to be made within the coaching staff, then be it. If not careful, the money can quickly dry up.
To be clear, I want Brad to stick around for a long time, but given the money thrown at the coaching staff, we should have much stronger assistant coaches than we currently have.
I hate that I just did this, but here are the splits:
1H:
3pt
20:00 - 07:51 1/10 -16 27-11
07:51 - 00:59 1/3 +10 35-29
00:59 - 00:00 0/4 -2 37-29
2H:
3pt
20:00 - 07:28 2/4 +10 62-60
07:28 - 00:00 2/7 -11 82-73
Over the ~20min we shot 21 3s, we were -29 (3/21). Over the ~20min we shot 7 3s, we were +20 (3/7).
It's pretty clear that our offense is better when we don't shoot volume 3s.
1H:
3pt
20:00 - 07:51 1/10 -16 27-11
07:51 - 00:59 1/3 +10 35-29
00:59 - 00:00 0/4 -2 37-29
2H:
3pt
20:00 - 07:28 2/4 +10 62-60
07:28 - 00:00 2/7 -11 82-73
Over the ~20min we shot 21 3s, we were -29 (3/21). Over the ~20min we shot 7 3s, we were +20 (3/7).
It's pretty clear that our offense is better when we don't shoot volume 3s.
Just hope the team has a little more faith in themselves that do the posters on here.
Think all the ragging on TU is kind of funny, when last year he was getting credit for the No. 1 (almost) offense in the nation.
I was only 20 years old when I was overseeing the construction and final concrete pour on the turbine pedestals of the Clinton Power Station as a field surveyor. If youth is disqualifying, then maybe you ought to move to Alaska Like I did, instead of attending games downwind. Just kidding.
That said, nepotism is generally only tolerated while it works. TU might get invited back for one more year, but BU has to know his time is limited (regardless of results).
At a certain point, it's execution on the floor. We're getting open looks and missing most of them. Failing to drive the ball and far too frequently missing bunnies when we do. Passing out of isos on the block when we have the size advantage the set created. Just infuriatingly bad decision making throughout. I don't know how much is scheme as much as it is decision-making, effort and focus.
You’re exactly right. Every time Tomi got in on the block he scored. It was a ridiculous game plan to start the game with.
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