I actually don't think it'll be that crazy of a tournament this year. There's as much separation between the top 17 and everyone else as I've ever seen, and especially the top 3 are far and away better than anyone else. Can upsets happen? Sure, anything can happen, but this really feels like we're headed for one of those chalky final fours with like three 1s and a 2, with a bunch of muddled, even games early on with seeds 5 to 12.
Selection Sunday (Bracketology Thread)
- Status
Bracketmatrix has been updated, basically confirming what we may already know.
The people talking about not wanting to play this team or that team have the same mentality that quit at halftime of the Nebraska game.
This team is not afraid to play any team in the tournament.
This team is not afraid to play any team in the tournament.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Agreed, especially if we get that #3 seed … because that means we are at least in the Elite Eight!!
Always appreciate your analysis but you're definitely on an island here.
Not one bracket included in the bracketmatrix has Wisconsin a 4 or Kentucky a 5.
All of the 1 seeds except UCONN just lost. Tennessee, UNC, and Houston got beat downs.
Outside of UCONN I don't think any team is that dominant this year.
There were a ton of bid stealers so maybe it's cut out a little of the at large bid talent.
Agree, and UConn can be taken down.
We can, but this squad could also lose to anyone.
He’s been high on Illinois since the FAU game.
skyIdub
Winged Warrior
I think we deal with teams with worse metrics relatively well, which I like. The loss to Maryland at home was like the only upset. All other losses are either to higher ranked teams or small margin road losses. The PSU meltdown was embarrassing but that might’ve not happened on a neutral court.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Bilas is always very kind to us. A fair/balanced and very knowledgeable guy for having played on Tobacco Road. He knows and respects our program's history.
(Also chatted with him at a HS game when our sons played against one another semi-recently. Down to earth.)
OrangeBlue98
- Des Moines, IA
Probably also doesn't hurt that he followed Illinois in the 2005 NCAA tournament and that his color commentary with Dick Enberg (RIP) will forever be etched in NCAA tournament lore along with Deron Williams.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
However, I must add..............
40-50 of our Illini brethren on Illinois Loyalty know a crap-load more than 85% of the people running those brackets on "Bracket Matrix."
Agree. I am most interested in who our 14 and 6 are and then the 2. Actually worrying about how we match up in our next game against UCOnn will be a good problem to have
I think it's worth nothing about half the brackets have Illinois as a 4 seed. The average is 11th, or the 3rd 3 seed, ahead of Duke, and 4 seeds Kentucky, Auburn, Kansas, Alabama.
Just looking at their profiles directly:
Wisconsin is 5-8 in Q1, Kentucky is 6-7.
Wisconsin is 9-4 in Q2, Kentucky is 2-1
Kentucky has a Q3 loss, Wisconsin does not.
Wisconsin is 18 NET, Kentucky is 19
Wisconsin is 24 ELO, Kentucky is 11
Wisconsin is 17 Kenpom, Kentucky is 18
Wisconsin is 19 T-Rank, Kentucky is 25
Wisconsin is 21 SOR, Kentucky is 19
Wisconsin is 15 WAB, Kentucky is 21
Wisconsin's SOS is 8, Kentucky is 53
Kentucky has 1 more Q1 win, but half as many Q1+Q2 wins, lower SOS, has a Q3 loss, and is behind in almost all the metrics.
As exciting as the conference tournaments are, they were largely meaningless for those teams.
Saying there is more separation at the top than in most years is just a fact. It doesn't mean that these teams can't lose, it just means it's less likely that all of them lose early, like happened last year. It's a very top-heavy tournament.
That's better than iowa state as our 2 seed
Running low on time, the rest of my at-larges (and auto bids that are mixed in and denoted with asterisks):
18. Gonzaga (5)
19. Florida (5)
20. BYU (5)
21. Texas Tech (6)
22. San Diego State (6)
23. South Carolina (6)
24. Nebraska (6)
25. St. Mary's * (7)
26. Nevada (7)
27. Colorado (7)
28. Dayton (7)
29. Utah State (8)
30. Texas (8)
31. New Mexico * (8)
32. Washington State (8)
33. TCU (9)
34. Indiana State (9) (this is a surprise, but their resume is actually pretty good for a mid major champ, and their metrics are solid...they have a Q4 loss that could ding them but several teams in this range do)
35. Mississippi State (9)
36. Northwestern (9)
37. Drake * (10)
38. Florida Atlantic (10)
39. Michigan State (10)
40. James Madison * (10)
Last 4 in:
41. St. John's (11)
42. Clemson (11)
43. Pitt (11)
44. Oklahoma (11)
First 4 out:
Virginia
Colorado State
Boise State
Texas A&M
Next 4 out:
Seton Hall
Providence
Ohio State
Princeton
Further out:
Villanova
Wake Forest
18. Gonzaga (5)
19. Florida (5)
20. BYU (5)
21. Texas Tech (6)
22. San Diego State (6)
23. South Carolina (6)
24. Nebraska (6)
25. St. Mary's * (7)
26. Nevada (7)
27. Colorado (7)
28. Dayton (7)
29. Utah State (8)
30. Texas (8)
31. New Mexico * (8)
32. Washington State (8)
33. TCU (9)
34. Indiana State (9) (this is a surprise, but their resume is actually pretty good for a mid major champ, and their metrics are solid...they have a Q4 loss that could ding them but several teams in this range do)
35. Mississippi State (9)
36. Northwestern (9)
37. Drake * (10)
38. Florida Atlantic (10)
39. Michigan State (10)
40. James Madison * (10)
Last 4 in:
41. St. John's (11)
42. Clemson (11)
43. Pitt (11)
44. Oklahoma (11)
First 4 out:
Virginia
Colorado State
Boise State
Texas A&M
Next 4 out:
Seton Hall
Providence
Ohio State
Princeton
Further out:
Villanova
Wake Forest
- Status