So how good is Illinois?

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#27      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
mhuml32 said:
This is looking at each specific game. Yes, each game is reasonably winnable, but Illinois needs a sequence of reasonably winnable games to all go in Illinois' favor. Even assuming that Illinois loses to Ohio State, Illinois needs to win @Indiana, USC, and @Washington to be a favorite to make the playoff. I'm guessing that bettors would place Illinois' chances of winning that three-game sequence at.....+400 at best? +1000 at worst?
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This is not me saying getting in is an absolute certainty, but I'd feel GREAT about 10-2 with this schedule.
 
#28      
Dkayak
mhuml32 said:
This is looking at each specific game. Yes, each game is reasonably winnable, but Illinois needs a sequence of reasonably winnable games to all go in Illinois' favor. Even assuming that Illinois loses to Ohio State, Illinois needs to win @Indiana, USC, and @Washington to be a favorite to make the playoff. I'm guessing that bettors would place Illinois' chances of winning that three-game sequence at.....+400 at best? +1000 at worst?
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The Roman philosopher Seneca said “Luck happens when preparation meets opportunity”.

Coach B prepared the team with a video montage of Duke fumbles and takeaways, reminding them to strive to punch the ball out when tackling. A Special Teams analyst had identified the duplicate 8’s in pregame film, so he was on alert when they repeated it. Preparation begets luck and this team seems well coached and prepared, so expect more luck, just like last season.
 
#29      
Illwinsagain
mhuml32 said:
This is looking at each specific game. Yes, each game is reasonably winnable, but Illinois needs a sequence of reasonably winnable games to all go in Illinois' favor. Even assuming that Illinois loses to Ohio State, Illinois needs to win @Indiana, USC, and @Washington to be a favorite to make the playoff. I'm guessing that bettors would place Illinois' chances of winning that three-game sequence at.....+400 at best? +1000 at worst?
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I see your point. As Coach says, 1-0 mentality.
 
#30      
Illwinsagain
Dkayak said:
The Roman philosopher Seneca said “Luck happens when preparation meets opportunity”.

Coach B prepared the team with a video montage of Duke fumbles and takeaways, reminding them to strive to punch the ball out when tackling. A Special Teams analyst had identified the duplicate 8’s in pregame film, so he was on alert when they repeated it. Preparation begets luck and this team seems well coached and prepared, so expect more luck, just like last season.
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Thank you for this. For 30+ years I accredited this quote to Vince Lombardi. Now I don't have to appreciate him as much.
 
#31      
Dkayak
Illwinsagain said:
Thank you for this. For 30+ years I accredited this quote to Vince Lombardi. Now I don't have to appreciate him as much.
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It appears many have reminded us of Seneca’s timeless wisdom, including Zig Ziglar and others in our era. It’s timeless.
 
#32      
sacraig
strong bad homestar runner GIF
 
#33      
Illini2010-11
mhuml32 said:
This is looking at each specific game. Yes, each game is reasonably winnable, but Illinois needs a sequence of reasonably winnable games to all go in Illinois' favor. Even assuming that Illinois loses to Ohio State, Illinois needs to win @Indiana, USC, and @Washington to be a favorite to make the playoff. I'm guessing that bettors would place Illinois' chances of winning that three-game sequence at.....+400 at best? +1000 at worst?
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Using likely Vegas odds as of today, I think the general consensus is that all three of those games will be a coinflip in best case scenario (so say -110 odds). This would lead to about +600 at the books for a 3-leg parlay. I think you are near correct for the at worst portion. To get to about 10/1 odds in a 3-leg parlay, you would assume +125 odds for Illini to win in each game. As of today, I think it is safe to say that +125 would be the worst odds (for all three games) you will see.

However, if the Illini go 10-2, I think the Illini would in an extremely strong position to make the CFP. That is assuming that the Illini lose to OSU and one of the aforementioned games above. If the Illini get to 5-1 going into the OSU game, then I think the Washington game is the must win game to make CFP (as assumption is the OSU game is likely loss). If the Illini get to 6-0 going into the OSU game, the Illini will have some more wiggle room to slip up once after the OSU game (again assuming a loss to OSU).

The optimal scenario coming out of October is 8-0, but the near best case scenario is that the Illini get out of October at 7-1 (that would mean at least 4 very high-quality wins on the resume). That would leave an opening for the Illini to slip up once in November (likely @Wisconsin) and still feel in a pretty good position to make the CFP. 11-1 in the B1G is a lock for the CFP, but I believe that 10-2 in the B1G likely leaves at least a coin-flip chance of making the CFP.

Back to the general question for this thread: How good are the Illini? It is too soon to tell for me. There are some warning indicators from Saturday, but there are maybe only a few teams that can claim that they are well-oiled at this point of the season. The Illini might be fringe CFP territory in terms of raw talent, but there are few teams as well coached as the Illini. I think experience will also be on the side of Illinois this year.

We passed the first test of the season, but we will know much more about this team on 9/20 after the IU game.
 
#34      
CDRUSN
Curbelo Fanboy said:
I don’t know if we truly have top 10 talent up and down the roster. I think the talent is closer to that level than in a long long time. Time will tell this year. but I do know a few things

- IL football has an identity like it’s not had in at least 35 years. Tough,smart and physical. Sometimes the playcalling seems conservative especially when those first down runs go nowhere early on. But today like in the bowl game that physicality wears down the opponent and the yards come much easier.

- when the game hits the fourth quarter Bert Ball takes hold. If we lead after 3 the 4th becomes very hard for the other team. Cause we keep feeding run after wearing down the d over the first 3 quarters

- don’t know what final record will be or if we’ll make the playoff but I do know whoever beats this team is gonna have to play for 4 quarters. Very rarely does a Bret coached team get run. And they just kind of grind it out and stay in the game. Oregon last year and Va in year 1 are the only exceptions in his tenure.

- we are starting to become a team no one wants to play against. Bret with gamesmanship and attention to the details on the sub rules has gotten 2 opponents off their game a bit now.
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Your post nailed this well. I would add that much like Fletch in basketball, Tank Wright and his outstanding strength, conditioning, and nutrition staff gives us an edge over many opponents who tend to wear down in the 4th, when our athletes are still going strong. Having the depth to keep fresh bodies on the field without a noticeable dropoff in quality is also an important factor that Coach B has been building with a purpose since his arrival, and is the best this year in a long time.
 
#36      
GatorMcKlusky
Lunney has to be one of the top five OCs in the country. Sitting at the game, my wife wanted to fire him at halftime. I explained to her that he would make the right adjustments at halftime. She said, "Like what?" Now she thinks I'm not a complete idiot. Thanks Barry!
 
#37      
RML
mhuml32 said:
(1) It's not a top-10 team by power rankings.
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I think a lot of us believe that BB and his staff are an exceptionally good judge of potential, and our ranking by recruiting class stars is a poor measure of our actual talent level.
 
#40      
pruman91
I saw so many predictions of a loss to puke in the predictions thread earlier this year and wondered why....was it based on logic or based on the tired
" that's just us being Illinois " line of thinking.....
We need to eject that line of thinking out of our vocabulary forever.....my thought process now is we can compete with anyone in college football and have an OPPORTUNITY to win said game at hand...

BB and our great staff have prepared the Illini squad to overcome all obstacles presented against us with maturity, high FB intelligence and a mentality of one game at a time......this allows the players to focus every game on that game only before us.....

How good is Illinois ???....We are the best coached Illini team in my lifetime and best prepared also.....we have the OPPORTUNITY to be the best Illini team ever , and that's not hype but a solid take on what is before us.....I'm more excited about Illini FB now than I have been in years and years....I really really am.....

JMHO....
 
#41      
RabidDawgClassic
CDRUSN said:
Your post nailed this well. I would add that much like Fletch in basketball, Tank Wright and his outstanding strength, conditioning, and nutrition staff gives us an edge over many opponents who tend to wear down in the 4th, when our athletes are still going strong. Having the depth to keep fresh bodies on the field without a noticeable dropoff in quality is also an important factor that Coach B has been building with a purpose since his arrival, and is the best this year in a long time.
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Loren Tate and Steve Kelly were talking about this recently and Loren asked —not in a mocking way, but seriously — what makes Fletch so special? What does he do differently that has earned him such a high reputation? Loren then said every school has strength and conditioning coaches — surely most of those people aren’t chopped liver.

So why does Fletch hold such a lofty position on the strength and conditioning pedestal?
 
#42      
Mr. Tibbs
and it’s not because Wash is all that special. it’s just that our history of going out far west and playing well is abysmal . Going back 45 years
 
#43      
chiefini
As a 1974 Illinois graduate who went to every game (both football and basketball) in Champaign the 4 years I was there, and as a football season ticket holder since the fall of 1984, I’ve seen some really good football, and LOTS of really bad football. I have admitted on IL that initially I was not keen on the Bielema hire since we have 3 couples who are close friends and Wisconsin fans. They all hate his guts because of how he left them. I have come to believe they are just jealous and now would give their eye teeth to have him back as their coach. I am SO glad Bret is the Illini coach. Last year was such fun. This season’s team has the potential to be the best I’ve ever seen. Bielema has established a fantastic culture to promote winning in all areas, from his staff and their knowledge, expertise, and preparation, to the recruitment and development of the right kind of skilled student athlete, to the use of the transfer portal, to his in game adjustments, to the emphasis of toughness and discipline in his team. His mantra #famILLy is not just a platitude; Bret his built this program based on this concept. He genuinely cares. The retention of Luke and the rest of those players who could have left with better offers is proof. I am truly a believer that this team is really special and could not only win the B1G, but could make some noise in the playoffs.
:illinois:-L-L
 
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#45      
bluemountain
Here's the thing...we are a good team, we are well coached and our QB is a gamer. We generally make fewer mistakes than our competition. Having said that, I don't know that we necessarily have a talent advantage over most of the remaining teams on our schedule. OSU is obviously more talented. USC is more talented. IU probably has as much if not more NFL level talent. The 2 UW's are probably at least comparable to us in talent. Riley is a clown so I like our odds against USC at home. But the IU, UW and UW games are going to be tough on the road. My gut tells me we are 8-4 good.
 
#46      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Mr. Tibbs said:
I think @Washington is toughest
and @Indiana the least hardest

home vs USC in the middle
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USC is the toughest. They put up 59 and 73 in their first two games, and their two games before us is MSU (who gave up 42 to BC), and Purdue. You can look at the competition - still two big ten teams in there - but its a team that will come in averaging 55-60 PPG.

You'll likely need to score a minimum of 40+ to win... and their defense is not nearly the train wreck it was in that Caleb Williams season.
 
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#47      
Mr. Tibbs
bluemountain said:
Here's the thing...we are a good team, we are well coached and our QB is a gamer. We generally make fewer mistakes than our competition. Having said that, I don't know that we necessarily have a talent advantage over most of the remaining teams on our schedule. OSU is obviously more talented. USC is more talented. IU probably has as much if not more NFL level talent. The 2 UW's are probably at least comparable to us in talent. Riley is a clown so I like our odds against USC at home. But the IU, UW and UW games are going to be tough on the road. My gut tells me we are 8-4 good.
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talent better or worse based on what ?

I’ll give you that OSU & USC have better rated recruits - like much better ranked . but the others ? who knows anymore

I like our chances vs USC at home and we will have our hands full out in Seattle .

but all the others ? who knows who has better talent on the roster
 
#49      
blackdog
RabidDawgClassic said:
Loren Tate and Steve Kelly were talking about this recently and Loren asked —not in a mocking way, but seriously — what makes Fletch so special? What does he do differently that has earned him such a high reputation? Loren then said every school has strength and conditioning coaches — surely most of those people aren’t chopped liver.

So why does Fletch hold such a lofty position on the strength and conditioning pedestal?
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First is his big emphasis on functional mobility and strength. I dont even remeber the last time we had a guy pull something. He's also really knowledgeable about everything from nutrition to recovery and builds that in to maximize work. The last part, which kight be the most important, is that he gets buy in from his guys. Dude LOVE Fletch and when you have that its going to cause guys to want to push more and follow the program.
 
#50      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
bluemountain said:
Here's the thing...we are a good team, we are well coached and our QB is a gamer. We generally make fewer mistakes than our competition. Having said that, I don't know that we necessarily have a talent advantage over most of the remaining teams on our schedule. OSU is obviously more talented. USC is more talented. IU probably has as much if not more NFL level talent. The 2 UW's are probably at least comparable to us in talent. Riley is a clown so I like our odds against USC at home. But the IU, UW and UW games are going to be tough on the road. My gut tells me we are 8-4 good.
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Have you seen Wisconsin's schedule? They'll be 3-7 heading into our game.
 
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