The Illinois Coaching Search

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#476      

Cheez

Sun Prairie WI
It is one source, yes. But Woj is the best and single most reliable reporter across all of sports.

This. If Woj says it, you can take it to the bank.

I would have liked Monty, but it's on to the next guy.
 
#477      

Illiini

In the land of the Nittany Lion
:popcorn: You should go back and watch Whitman's press conference again.
Whitman has no intention of being top 25. He wants to be where we are challenging for conference and national championship every year. Obviously that's easier said that done, but don't think that he has his sights set on "good enough." Good enough is not good enough.

And from what Whitman said--and no douibt he's drinking the same koolaid as many of us are--Illinois is as good a destination for a coach as anywhere. We have all the pieces (and we've been over that numerous times).

A potential coach has to ask whether he can measure up to what he would have coming here. Fail at Illinois, and it's on you. That's why Groce had no defense. Come to Illinois and you'd better be wearing big boy pants.

I think that's the way Whitman sees it, and that's the way he plans to sell it to potential coaches.

"Hello, this is Josh Whitman. I have the opportunity of a lifetime for you..."

:illinois::thumb::illinois:
 
#478      
I'm not on the Cuonzo bandwagon by any means, but I think Cuonzo can coach. It's just that he has a lot more P5 experience than others we are considering. When you look at Cuonzo's situations, and if we can make the *assumption* that the teams he took over weren't very good, he looks fine to me as a coach. If you consider the teams he took over, where they were at, and how he adjusted offense and defense to the personnel, it's not as if he looks inferior to, say, Keatts.

Mind you, this is just high-level stats...

- How efficient are his offense and defense?

SRS - Points above/below average, where 0 is average and higher = better. Accounts for point differential and SOS.
SOS - Strength of schedule, where 0 is average and higher = better.

KEATTS:
NC Wilmington:
2014-2015: Offense: #200 | Defense: #158 (18-14 | SRS: -2.53 | SOS: -1.92)
2015-2016: Offense: #63 | Defense: #110 (23-11 | SRS: 6.25 | SOS: 0.35)
2016-2017: Offense: #5 | Defense: #214 (21-12 | SRS: 8.05 | SOS: -0.98)

MARTIN:

Efficiency Ratings / Record:
Missouri State:
2008-2009: Offense: #256 | Defense: #179 (11-20 | SRS: -1.9 | SOS: 1.9)
2009-2010: Offense: #35 | Defense: #140 (24-12 | SRS: 7.57 | SOS: 1.4)
2010-2011: Offense: #17 | Defense: #161 (26-9 | SRS: 8.07 | SOS: 1.35)
Tennessee:
2011-2012: Offense: #132 | Defense: #111 (19-15 | SRS: 9.49 | SOS: 6.58)
2012-2013: Offense: #127 | Defense: #118 (20-13 | SRS: 9.00 | SOS: 6.03)
2013-2014: Offense: #29 | Defense: #41 (24-13 | SRS: 17.34 | SOS: 7.84)
Cal:
2014-2015: Offense: #224 | Defense: #142 (18-15 | SRS: 5.36 | SOS: 6.15)
2015-2016: Offense: #84 | Defense: #39 (23-11 | SRS: 15.39 | SOS: 7.87)
2016-2017: Offense: #226 | Defense: #10 (21-12 | SRS: 11.79 | SOS: 6.67)

For comparison:

Illinois Efficiency:
2008-2009: Offense: #160 | Defense: #3 (21-12 | SRS: 14.38 | SOS: 6.73)
2009-2010: Offense: #111 | Defense: #108 (21-12 | SRS: 11.58 | SOS: 9.58)
2010-2011: Offense: #64 | Defense: #88 (21-12 | SRS: 16.72 | SOS: 11.11)
2011-2012: Offense: #180 | Defense: #109 (21-12 | SRS: 9.33 | SOS: 7.99)
2012-2013: Offense: #105 | Defense: #136 (21-12 | SRS: 13.23 | SOS: 10.08)
2013-2014: Offense: #224 | Defense: #54 (21-12 | SRS: 10.33 | SOS: 8.28)
2014-2015: Offense: #92 | Defense: #70 (21-12 | SRS: 12.42 | SOS: 6.93)
2015-2016: Offense: #196 | Defense: #239 (21-12 | SRS: 4.39 | SOS: 7.03)
2016-2017: Offense: #175 | Defense: #136 (21-12 | SRS: 10.34 | SOS: 9.89)

Thanks a lot for this, very interesting data. Martin's numbers are better than I would have expected, to be honest really only watched a lot of one game this year, and that it was against Utah. Not impressive. He shows a consistent improvement in defense, and I love that. Offense all over the map. A bigger surprise here is Keatts. What is up with his defense this year. Sure the offense is great, but I really don't think that translates to P5. Defense is a system and coaching, Offense can be that, or it can be just recruiting, and he is supposed to be a recruiter.

The Illinois numbers are simply heartbreaking... My first vivid memory of Illinois basketball was EJs corner jumper against MSU. 30 years of mostly great basketball followed. Now this. Thankfully, JW pretty much echoed this sentiment.

I think we must to better than either Cuonzo or Keatts.
 
#479      

Cheez

Sun Prairie WI
:popcorn: You should go back and watch Whitman's press conference again.
Whitman has no intention of being top 25. He wants to be where we are challenging for conference and national championship every year. Obviously that's easier said that done, but don't think that he has his sights set on "good enough." Good enough is not good enough.

And from what Whitman said--and no douibt he's drinking the same koolaid as many of us are--Illinois is as good a destination for a coach as anywhere. We have all the pieces (and we've been over that numerous times).

A potential coach has to ask whether he can measure up to what he would have coming here. Fail at Illinois, and it's on you. That's why Groce had no defense. Come to Illinois and you'd better be wearing big boy pants.

I think that's the way Whitman sees it, and that's the way he plans to sell it to potential coaches.

"Hello, this is Josh Whitman. I have the opportunity of a lifetime for you..."

:illinois::thumb::illinois:

That's exactly what I'm getting from Whitman too. Excellent sales person who wants to take the Illinois job from where it is (top 25 in the country) as high as absolutely possible.
 
#480      
I think there's a distinction between being someone who is truly poor at creating recruiting relationships, and someone who just isn't the unctuous smooth operator that will be every Chicago AAU coach's best buddy.

I don't purport to know whether Marshall is either or both, but the idea that Illinois needs the world's most dynamic recruiting personality as their head coach to win the Jabari Parkers and Jahlil Okafors through sheer charm I think is a huge misconception. That was Mike Thomas' concept of what the Illinois job was and what it required and that one-size-fits-all focus both caused him to ignore potentially great options and turned off the targets he did go after.

If we want perennially outstanding, Big Ten title contending status for Illinois basketball (and we should), winning epic recruiting battles for 5-star Chicagoland talent is certainly one path there. But I don't think it's the path of least resistance at all.

The strength of the Illinois job, to me, is the broad access to talent that isn't being put up for auction to Self and Calipari and the like in the Chicago AAU scene. Anyone can dive into that cesspool. Illinois has unique access to other solid players in state and in the surrounding area. Players that an outstanding coach can turn into a sustained dominant program, one that presents its own case to those 5-stars, beyond just the salesman schtick of the head coach.

A dynamic recruiter, which even Whitman mentioned prominently, does not equate to just a charming guy. Being charming and getting no results has no impact on recruiting. But I am around AAU and Div. I athletes plenty and can tell you that this (i.e., dynamic recruiter) is not how people describe Marshall.

No matter how dynamic a recruiter is, he will not get all those 5* guys at Illinois. But whoever the next coach at UI is, he needs to significantly upgrade the talent from the last 12 years, otherwise we will not elevate the program where we insistently compete in for B1G tiles and upper echelon finishes.
 
#481      
he needs to significantly upgrade the talent from the last 12 years, otherwise we will not elevate the program

Agree to disagree.

Not that upgrading the talent level wouldn't help. I'm all for that.

THIS IS CHAMPAIGN. DOORS CLOSING.
giphy.gif
 
#482      

PostersLastStand

Wayne County, IL
Prohm would be a good hire IMO. Maybe not a game changing big name, but someone with a solid resume. He's making $1.5m/year until 2020 (plus some extras), so we could almost double it. Are we a better program than Iowa State? Historically, sure. But he came into a good situation there and has things rolling. Not sure he would jump ship two years in.
After seeing how they played against West Virginia, count me in. When you out tough a Bob Huggins team, you have my attention.
 
#483      

zpfled

Logan Square, Chicago
It sure feels to me, that the Martin innuendo is all from one side of the aisle. I 100% believe Martin would crawl to Champaign for the job. I don't believe Whitman would have him in his top 5-7 options, if even top 10. There is a narrative being spun here, but I don't believe it is the Illinois Athletic Department doing anything to contribute to the spinning of said narrative.

Yeah. I think Martin really wants the job at Illinois. He might even be good at Illinois. But he might not.

I hope Whitman gets a proven recruiter AND winner. Either of the Miller brothers would be fantastic. I'd be excited about Scott Drew. I actually don't care too much exactly who it is, as long as he's one of Whitman's top 3...I trust anyone in that group to be phenomenal.
 
#484      
Can someone please explain why there is all the interest in Monty Williams? I don't really follow the NBA, but looking at his numbers there, I see a mediocre record in 5 years, with no playoff success. He doesn't appear to have much of a connection to the college game either. I am just struggling to see why he would be such a big draw for Illinois. I must be missing something, so I would appreciate any enlightenment.
 
#485      
Can someone please explain why there is all the interest in Monty Williams? I don't really follow the NBA, but looking at his numbers there, I see a mediocre record in 5 years, with no playoff success. He doesn't appear to have much of a connection to the college game either. I am just struggling to see why he would be such a big draw for Illinois. I must be missing something, so I would appreciate any enlightenment.

Jerry Colangelo was the connection. But he passed so it doesn't matter.
 
#486      

zpfled

Logan Square, Chicago
No matter how dynamic a recruiter is, he will not get all those 5* guys at Illinois. But whoever the next coach at UI is, he needs to significantly upgrade the talent from the last 12 years, otherwise we will not elevate the program where we insistently compete in for B1G tiles and upper echelon finishes.

We need our 'average' recruiting class to look a lot like our current 2017 group. 4 guys, great balance of positions, good range of rankings. We won't get a 5 star every year, but when we don't, we should be getting 2 solid 4 stars in his place.
 
#487      

618 Illini

Chicago
If Brey truly makes $800k and a $700k bonus how could he not at least pick up the phone for the job. Let's say hes offered $2.5 M a year (conservatively) that is a million more than he currently makes. In terms of fit, Notre Dame and U of I are both prestigious academic universities that probably have the same issues and selling points to recruits.

Stay in the Midwest, coach up a good recruitiing class (if they stay) and get some more cash. I know he has been at Notre Dame for quite some time but it doesn't seem out of this world crazy if the money is right.
 
#488      
There is a narrative being spun here, but I don't believe it is the Illinois Athletic Department doing anything to contribute to the spinning of said narrative.

I do not believe that the AD is doing anything to spin any narratives.
 
#489      

Kramer116

Chicago
I can appreciate your negative attitude but I'll bet you the next HC comes from this list (in no particular order)

1. Bryce Drew
2. Archie Miller
3. Kevin Keatts
4. Gregg Marshall
5. Scott Drew

I agree with this list, with a few slight tweaks:

Extremely unlikely but you have to ask:

* Sean Miller

#1 guy you have to throw $$ at and sell on the potential for a NC:

* Gregg Marshall - 1A type

Next up tier (only slightly and in no particular order):

* Bryce Drew - 1B type
* Scott Drew - 1B type
* Archie Miller - 1B type

If you strike out on everyone above, here is my next tier (don't think we get here at all):

* Kevin Keatts
* Cuonzo Martin
* Eric Musselman

Will be fun to follow this, I am guessing this is resolved and announced after the first weekend of the NCAAT.
 
#490      

illinoisfan11

Peoria, IL
After seeing how they played against West Virginia, count me in. When you out tough a Bob Huggins team, you have my attention.

I LOVE this guy. I have no reason to believe he'd leave ISU, but I'd be beyond thrilled if Whitman pulled that one odd. The guy can coach and has proven a very capable recruiter.
 
#491      
This. If Woj says it, you can take it to the bank.

I would have liked Monty, but it's on to the next guy.

I agree it is a reliable source, and unlikely to change. But....

Williams could be talked into it (negotiations)
Williams may just be fishing to see if someone in the NBA is interested first.

Things could change. Unlikely, but they could.
 
#492      

Kramer116

Chicago
Can someone please explain why there is all the interest in Monty Williams? I don't really follow the NBA, but looking at his numbers there, I see a mediocre record in 5 years, with no playoff success. He doesn't appear to have much of a connection to the college game either. I am just struggling to see why he would be such a big draw for Illinois. I must be missing something, so I would appreciate any enlightenment.

Not going to happen anymore, but here were the positives / connections:

* Highly recommended by Colangelo
* Highly recommends by Popovich
* Had a terrible Hornets/Pelicans team in the playoffs trending up, then a trade of Chris Paul is forced and they get a terrible return
* Management there gives his a terrible roster, turns average at best players into serviceable NBA guys who make big money
* Mentor for Anthony Davis coming out of Kentucky, looks at him as a father figure mentor
* Spent last few years working for Pop and Team USA
 
#493      

illini80

Forgottonia
Obviously it would depend on the particular guy, but if the next coach is in the tourney, I wonder how much $ each successive tourney win nets him in the job offers. I suspect it's significant.
 
#494      

PostersLastStand

Wayne County, IL
My .02

Archie Miller- would be great get. Could do a lot and has midwest ties. I love his energy

Keatts- intriguing, but I'd like to see just one or two more years of UNCW success before classifying him as as "home run". Could just be talented seniors.

Hoiberg- nope. He is not leaving Bulls and coming to a new P5 school. Not happening.

Donovan- that'd be amazing but also no way.

Greg Marshall- can't see him leaving his good gig to come here. Possible though.
What! You have burst my bubble. My secret dream hire was Billy Donovan, no really, I was hoping he would leave his huge salary in the NBA and come here. It happens on SITCOMS.
 
#495      
I agree with this list, with a few slight tweaks:

Extremely unlikely but you have to ask:

* Sean Miller

#1 guy you have to throw $$ at and sell on the potential for a NC:

* Gregg Marshall - 1A type

Next up tier (only slightly and in no particular order):

* Bryce Drew - 1B type
* Scott Drew - 1B type
* Archie Miller - 1B type

If you strike out on everyone above, here is my next tier (don't think we get here at all):

* Kevin Keatts
* Cuonzo Martin
* Eric Musselman

Will be fun to follow this, I am guessing this is resolved and announced after the first weekend of the NCAAT.

I like your rankings. I like Musselman the best of the last group.
 
#496      

IlliniDent

Chicago, IL
I agree with this list, with a few slight tweaks:

Extremely unlikely but you have to ask:

* Sean Miller

#1 guy you have to throw $$ at and sell on the potential for a NC:

* Gregg Marshall - 1A type

Next up tier (only slightly and in no particular order):

* Bryce Drew - 1B type
* Scott Drew - 1B type
* Archie Miller - 1B type

If you strike out on everyone above, here is my next tier (don't think we get here at all):

* Kevin Keatts
* Cuonzo Martin
* Eric Musselman

Will be fun to follow this, I am guessing this is resolved and announced after the first weekend of the NCAAT.

Agree here too, but would put Bennett up at the top with Sean Miller.
 
#497      
If Brey truly makes $800k and a $700k bonus how could he not at least pick up the phone for the job. Let's say hes offered $2.5 M a year (conservatively) that is a million more than he currently makes. In terms of fit, Notre Dame and U of I are both prestigious academic universities that probably have the same issues and selling points to recruits.

Stay in the Midwest, coach up a good recruitiing class (if they stay) and get some more cash. I know he has been at Notre Dame for quite some time but it doesn't seem out of this world crazy if the money is right.

Brey is extended through 2022 and loves it there, plans to retire from ND. He is at the end of his career, not happening.
 
#498      

Dvick217

San Diego
I don't think Marshall would be a good fit. I just feel he is at his best where he is it. The whole "dynamic recruiter" piece is where he would fail. IMHO
 
#499      
We need our 'average' recruiting class to look a lot like our current 2017 group. 4 guys, great balance of positions, good range of rankings. We won't get a 5 star every year, but when we don't, we should be getting 2 solid 4 stars in his place.

I agree, but as I have said in previous posts, it extends beyond just pure rankings of the classes. In periods where Illinois had been consistently good (i.e., 80s and 99-05), the talent level was higher and we had some players who emerged as difference makers (from a pure abilities perspective, not just rankings or coaching).

I do like the current class, I think it is a very good foundational class with positional balance and I hope the new coach can keep it together, and also hope that they all make it to campus. Does it have difference makers? Obviously, until we see them on the court in college, it is hard to say.
 
#500      
Not going to happen anymore, but here were the positives / connections:

* Highly recommended by Colangelo
* Highly recommends by Popovich
* Had a terrible Hornets/Pelicans team in the playoffs trending up, then a trade of Chris Paul is forced and they get a terrible return
* Management there gives his a terrible roster, turns average at best players into serviceable NBA guys who make big money
* Mentor for Anthony Davis coming out of Kentucky, looks at him as a father figure mentor
* Spent last few years working for Pop and Team USA

Thanks for the info. I still don't see anything that makes me think he would have been the far-and-away best candidate for the job. I understand it isn't going to happen in any event, but was just wondering why he would be at the top of so many lists.
 
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