Not sure anyone knows what is going to happen today other than the judge. With that being said, this is not a make or break either way. Still a lot to play out with a case in the coming weeks along with the possible preliminary hearing
The Seventh Circuit uses a sliding scale test evaluating injunctions. Shannon has advanced several grounds to grant relief. First he sues under 1983 and claims his right to procedural due process has been violated. He also claims a violation of Title 9, a breach of an express contract, breach of an implied contract, and waiver. His last three arguments are weak.He must show a likelihood of success on the merits of one of those claims. If his harm is severe, the need for success on the merits diminishes.
And he must win today. A hearing on a permanent injunction is subsumed in today's ruling. The decision should be quick,but that depends on the judge. An appeal is theoretically possible, but these decisions are very rarely reversed on appeal.
The harm is pretty severe. The harm to Illinois is not. All is at stake is their suspension rule with respect to athletes which is designed to protect them. So I could see an injunction being granted. But hey Federal Judges do what they want; review is on an abuse of discretion standard.