UCLA 95, Illinois 94 OT Postgame

IlliniFan42 · Feb 24, 2026

Year	Seed	Final Round Reached	Expected Round	Outcome vs. Expectation
1981	#4	Sweet Sixteen	Sweet Sixteen	Performed as expected
1983	#7	First Round	Round of 32	Underperformed
1984	#2	Elite Eight	Elite Eight	Performed as expected
1985	#3	Sweet Sixteen	Sweet Sixteen	Performed as expected
1986	#4	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Underperformed
1987	#3	First Round	Sweet Sixteen	Underperformed
1988	#3	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Underperformed
1989	#1	Final Four	Final Four	Performed as expected
1990	#5	First Round	Round of 32	Underperformed
1993	#6	Second Round	Round of 32	Performed as expected
1994	#8	First Round	Round of 32	Underperformed
1995	#11	First Round	Round of 64	Performed as expected
1997	#6	Second Round	Round of 32	Performed as expected
1998	#5	Second Round	Round of 32	Performed as expected
2000	#4	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Underperformed
2001	#1	Elite Eight	Final Four	Underperformed
2002	#4	Sweet Sixteen	Sweet Sixteen	Performed as expected
2003	#4	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Underperformed
2004	#5	Sweet Sixteen	Round of 32	Overperformed
2005	#1	National Championship	Final Four	Overperformed
2006	#4	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Underperformed
2007	#12	First Round	Round of 64	Performed as expected
2009	#5	First Round	Round of 32	Underperformed
2011	#9	Second Round	Round of 64	Performed as expected
2013	#7	Second Round	Round of 32	Performed as expected
2021	#1	Second Round	Final Four	Underperformed
2022	#4	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Underperformed
2023	#9	First Round	Round of 64	Performed as expected
2024	#3	Elite Eight	Sweet Sixteen	Overperformed
2025	#6	Second Round	Round of 32	Performed as expected

Category	Count
Overperformed	3
Performed as expected	14
Underperformed	13

This is the summary I got from Wikipedia- note I'm not sure I count being a #1 seed and making the NC as an overperform because two #1 seeds should make it, but that's splitting hairs.

Snoopy · Feb 24, 2026

It you genuinely want to understand where another fan's mindset comes from, you have to acknowledge their experience. 40 years is just not that long ago for some of us. And that 1984 loss in the Elite Eight to Kentucky in Rupp Arena is not something fans forget.

Argue stats and relevance of eras all you want, but fandom is fundamentally about emotions. The strongest of which probably developed while attending Illinois many years ago. Fans are allowed to be frustrated by a historic loss. Whether it was Kentucky 40 years ago or UCLA last weekend.

Illini in Italy · Feb 24, 2026

My expectations vs. performance have very little to do with the NCAA Tourney (I realize I'm in the minority here). In my mind, Brad Underwood has overperformed with Illini basketball. His teams have become nationally relevant. The past 6 seasons, his record is 140-58 (71%) overall and 81-36 (69%) in one of the toughest leagues in the country and playing one of the toughest non-conference schedules. Included have been 1 outright regular-season championship and 2 BTT titles as well as an Elite Eight appearance for only the 5th time in the past 42 years. His teams have been highly entertaining, including changing styles of play year-to-year, and they've been winners. Sign me up for this every season, even including the occasional disappointment.

mysterio2525 · Feb 24, 2026

EmpoweredIllini said:
Ah, so you're one of those that if we don't win the national championship then you didn't have a good time types of fans

No judgment, just helps explain things

why can't their be shades of grey. not everything is all or none and people can value different achievements and failures on their own scales. I think you took this a bridge too far.

also people's scale of achievement is allowed to evolve over time as things change. finishing top 6 in the big ten doesn't mean much to me now but it did before. finishing top 4 this year is nice but but really moving my needle.... it's aligned with my preseason expectations but my expectations for this team have increased during the year after watching them play. both of these can exist at the same time

Keisersose · Feb 24, 2026

The goal every year is final four and hopefully someday we will win a national championship.

That’s the goal every year!

I think we are “this close” to having what it takes.

EmpoweredIllini · Feb 24, 2026

mysterio2525 said:
why can't their be shades of grey. not everything is all or none and people can value different achievements and failures on their own scales. I think you took this a bridge too far.

also people's scale of achievement is allowed to evolve over time as things change. finishing top 6 in the big ten doesn't mean much to me now but it did before. finishing top 4 this year is nice but but really moving my needle.... it's aligned with my preseason expectations but my expectations for this team have increased during the year after watching them play. both of these can exist at the same time

Oh trust me I’d love to see more grey area than we lost = everything’s bad or we won = everything’s slightly less bad but we have to fix this and this and this.

He did say he’s been watching Illini for years and it’s yet to manifest into success. So I guess I took that literally, that even the F4 years weren’t a “success” in that particular persons view.

mysterio2525 · Feb 24, 2026

EmpoweredIllini said:
Oh trust me I’d love to see more grey area than we lost = everything’s bad or we won = everything’s slightly less bad but we have to fix this and this and this.

He did say he’s been watching Illini for years and it’s yet to manifest into success. So I guess I took that literally, that even the F4 years weren’t a “success” in that particular persons view.

l think of you adjust it to second weekend or elite 8 then you are there. if we each an elite 8 I think we all can universally call this a success even if we don't win the big ten tourney. sweet 16 should be our floor... we are going to be a top 8 metric and resume team by selection Sunday so that's fair to expect

Hingle McCringleberry · Feb 24, 2026

EmeraldCityIllini · Feb 24, 2026

Snoopy said:
It you genuinely want to understand where another fan's mindset comes from, you have to acknowledge their experience. 40 years is just not that long ago for some of us. And that 1984 loss in the Elite Eight to Kentucky in Rupp Arena is not something fans forget.

Argue stats and relevance of eras all you want, but fandom is fundamentally about emotions. The strongest of which probably developed while attending Illinois many years ago. Fans are allowed to be frustrated by a historic loss. Whether it was Kentucky 40 years ago or UCLA last weekend.

I’m not arguing experience at all. The whole picture shapes your entire fandom.

But in the context of Brad underwood? Do I think lumping in a 1984 elite 8 loss is overly fair to how I evaluate if he’ll underachieve this march?

Fly Illini Fly! · Feb 24, 2026

Hingle McCringleberry said:
What I was expecting was to have a real shot at Big Ten regular season title and a high seed (yes, 2-3 seed).

As is stands, we have no shot at the regular season title, may not even get the double bye in the B1G tournament, and we have to win against the league leading #3 team in the country or we are looking at 3-4 seed.

Does that meet your expectations?

The total spree of doom and gloom comments in certain post histories

Hingle McCringleberry said:
What I was expecting was to have a real shot at Big Ten regular season title and a high seed (yes, 2-3 seed).

Who exactly is it (outside of the doom and gloomers here) that said that’s out the window? All the reputable people/services still have Illinois as a 2seed, at worst a 3seed (but mostly a 2).

Hingle McCringleberry said:
As is stands, we have no shot at the regular season title, may not even get the double bye in the B1G tournament, and we have to win against the league leading #3 team in the country or we are looking at 3-4 seed.

Double bye or Triple bye?

Either way, I think this post summed it up quite well:

Snoopy · Feb 24, 2026

But in the context of Brad underwood? Do I think lumping in a 1984 elite 8 loss is overly fair to how I evaluate if he’ll underachieve this march?

March hasn't happened yet. And what has fair got to do with anything in College Basketball? Brad is a big boy who is paid more in a year than most earn in a lifetime. And more than all but 13 of his peers. He just needs to win.

Fly Illini Fly! · Feb 24, 2026

March2TheArch said:
I watched the 2024 Illini closely with TSJ and Mr. Booty Ball. The 2026 Illini are a better-balanced team (much better offense, slightly worse defense). That should excite us. UConn was a generational team with Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan (who was pinning TSJ dunk attempts at the apex). That UConn team looked more dominant than any team we’ve seen since in 2025 or this year.

No? Like, not even close.

The 2024 team finished 80th in defensive efficiency:

This team is 29th:

Sheldon Ram · Feb 24, 2026

March2TheArch said:
Also go back and watch Kofi highlights. I get that his playstyle worked well against inferior opponents and in physical B1G games especially with Ayo still around. But my god his lack of quickness was glaring in the 2022 NCAA game vs. Houston. So, so clunky.

I watched the 2024 Illini closely with TSJ and Mr. Booty Ball. The 2026 Illini are a better-balanced team (much better offense, slightly worse defense). That should excite us. UConn was a generational team with Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan (who was pinning TSJ dunk attempts at the apex). That UConn team looked more dominant than any team we’ve seen since in 2025 or this year.

We should be excited. The issues we’re having with Fears, Dent, and likely Cadeau in the regular season and likely again in the BTT will give us us a ton of game tape to manage that Achilles heel in the NCAAs.

There aren’t a ton of amazing 3-pt shooting big men among Arizona, Michigan, and Duke. So we can likely stay in the game and not get blown out like vs. UConn in the E8 game. Question is how do we handle quick guards - that will determine how far we go.

So we are calling our first team all-American clunky. Things I never thought I would read for $500

mysterio2525 · Feb 25, 2026

Fly Illini Fly! said:
No? Like, not even close.

The 2024 team finished 80th in defensive efficiency:

View attachment 47843

This team is 29th:

View attachment 47844

just to add how the top offenses did in the 2024 bracket:

national champ, final four, elite 8, finals, sweet 16, second round.

overall a good offense should get us at least 2 wins in the tourney.

March2TheArch · Feb 25, 2026

No? Like, not even close.

The 2024 team finished 80th in defensive efficiency:

View attachment 47843

This team is 29th:

View attachment 47844

Happy I can update my statement far worse defense too. And we still made it to the Elite 8!

Hope the boys are ready to treat Friday’s game like a National Title dress rehearsal! Because it may very well end up being one!

Illini in Italy · Feb 25, 2026

Hingle McCringleberry said:
What I was expecting was to have a real shot at Big Ten regular season title and a high seed (yes, 2-3 seed).

As is stands, we have no shot at the regular season title, may not even get the double bye in the B1G tournament, and we have to win against the league leading #3 team in the country or we are looking at 3-4 seed.

Does that meet your expectations?

You sir are awarded the coveted five Eeyores for your dispair.

You are correct that we did not win the B1G regular season title after ScUM cinched it last night. We will get at LEAST a double bye for the bTT, we do want to win vs ScUM to insure a 2 (an even possibly a 1 seed), and will not fall to a 4 seed, although a 3 is possible if a complete collapse occurs (prob. < 0.1%) on the Formician scale.

Calvin · Feb 25, 2026

March2TheArch said:
Also go back and watch Kofi highlights. I get that his playstyle worked well against inferior opponents and in physical B1G games especially with Ayo still around. But my god his lack of quickness was glaring in the 2022 NCAA game vs. Houston. So, so clunky.

I watched the 2024 Illini closely with TSJ and Mr. Booty Ball. The 2026 Illini are a better-balanced team (much better offense, slightly worse defense). That should excite us. UConn was a generational team with Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan (who was pinning TSJ dunk attempts at the apex). That UConn team looked more dominant than any team we’ve seen since in 2025 or this year.

We should be excited. The issues we’re having with Fears, Dent, and likely Cadeau in the regular season and likely again in the BTT will give us us a ton of game tape to manage that Achilles heel in the NCAAs.

There aren’t a ton of amazing 3-pt shooting big men among Arizona, Michigan, and Duke. So we can likely stay in the game and not get blown out like vs. UConn in the E8 game. Question is how do we handle quick guards - that will determine how far we go.

I think there are two general vulnerabilities this team has in match-ups, as well as the issue every team has with off shooting nights.
1) athletic teams have been able to make runs and get more stops. At the Illini's best, they overcome this with the wide variety of weapons, good decisions, and good movement.
2) let-downs in play. I think there were glaring effort differences in the teams that have come back against us. This team has a high ceiling, but they're 2-3 in their last 5, and the 3 losses were all bad close-outs. Up 23 is particularly hard to stomach. Tourney teams will play desperation, and I'd feel a helluva lot better if I saw this team stepping on the gas and getting more experience on how you close out games.

Was this a stretch where there was a let-down over a long season, or is it the sign of a team that's more tired than hungry? I think the losses can actually help us because of how they exposed weaknesses, but going into the tourney hungry is something I worry about due to history. The one E8 run isn't enough to make me think this year will be like that.

From the cheap seats · Feb 25, 2026

Barring a complete collapse, I cannot see the Illini worse than a #3 seed. Can’t imagine the committee would want to make a #1 seed play a team in the Sweet 16 that came thisclose to a B1G title (3 OT losses and a buzzer-beater) and has the metrics the Illini have.

Scoregasm · Feb 25, 2026

From the cheap seats said:
Barring a complete collapse, I cannot see the Illini worse than a #3 seed. Can’t imagine the committee would want to make a #1 seed play a team in the Sweet 16 that came thisclose to a B1G title (3 OT losses and a buzzer-beater) and has the metrics the Illini have.

If we end up a 3 seed while 4th in kenpom we are going to Loyola a 1 seed.

From the cheap seats · Feb 25, 2026

Scoregasm said:
If we end up a 3 seed while 4th in kenpom we are going to Loyola a 1 seed.

In that respect, a #3 is the same as a #2 in that neither would play a #1 until the Elite Eight. But to your main point, I think the Illini are a team the top seeds would rather not see given the offensive potential of the Illini.

Bigtex · Feb 25, 2026

From the cheap seats said:
In that respect, a #3 is the same as a #2 in that neither would play a #1 until the Elite Eight. But to your main point, I think the Illini are a team the top seeds would rather not see given the offensive potential of the Illini.

Sorry - 6 NCAA tournament teams (21% of Illinois games) have figured Illinois out and left Illinois fans explaining away each loss. IMO only on here is Illinois as revered and feared.

NarrowJ · Feb 25, 2026

Bigtex said:
Sorry - 6 NCAA tournament teams (21% of Illinois games) have figured Illinois out and left Illinois fans explaining away each loss. IMO only on here is Illinois as revered and feared.

4 of the 6 losses (or times we’ve been “figured out”) involved Illinois playing without one of its best players, or in some cases without multiple of their best players. This is not an insignificant thing. We even beat two top 5 teams in road games while missing players.

if you choose to ignore that player availability actually matters then rest on the fact that most of the teams in the tournament will have been “figured out” far more than Illinois has.

Fly Illini Fly! · Feb 25, 2026

Bigtex said:
Sorry - 6 NCAA tournament teams (21% of Illinois games) have figured Illinois out and left Illinois fans explaining away each loss. IMO only on here is Illinois as revered and feared.

I mean, the national media sure seems to be higher on Illinois than many folks on here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026401756763365478

EmpoweredIllini · Feb 25, 2026

Fly Illini Fly! said:
I mean, the national media sure seems to be higher on Illinois than many folks on here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026401756763365478

IMMEDIATELY thought the same thing lol

Go listen to whatever national show you'd like and you will hear about Illinois being a F4 team

Come here and read this message board and you'd think we are a 7 seed

"only on here is Illinois revered and feared" lmfao yea right more like "only on here is Illinois thought of as an also-ran"

Bigtex · Feb 25, 2026

Like all of us will be watching and waiting for good March results. Hope I am not saying I told you so after another year knocked out the first weekend.