USC, UCLA to join the Big Ten in 2024

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#726      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
When Stanford has absolutely no involvement in the B1G's thinking whatsoever will anyone here update their understanding of the way all of this works?

If ND said they'd join if Stanford joined, we'd happily invite both of them. And that won't happen, so ask yourself if the notion that ND just craves the idea of athletic conference affiliation with Stanford describes the real world.
 
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#728      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
Joel Goodson said:
And you know this how? FWLIW, I suspect you're dead wrong on Stanford.
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If Stanford joins the Big Ten, I will happily admit that there is a role for academic considerations in this process, even if just for pure appearances, that I have been underrating.

For the moment I am certain Stanford is not a candidate. Honestly I'm probably more interested in them than Kevin Warren is.
 
#729      

redwingillini11

redwingillini11
White and Sixth
North Aurora
redwingillini11
ChiefGritty said:
If Stanford joins the Big Ten, I will happily admit that there is a role for academic considerations in this process, even if just for pure appearances, that I have been underrating.

For the moment I am certain Stanford is not a candidate. Honestly I'm probably more interested in them than Kevin Warren is.
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It was news to me today that Phil Knight is also a huge donor at Stanford. The people following Oregon to the Big Ten seem to think Phil Knight is going to try to lobby for Stanford to join the Big Ten with Oregon. Now, as influential as Phil Knight is, I have no idea how much sway he can have when the real power brokers are the tv people.
 
#730      

gibb52

G
gibb52
Oregon and Udub would bring enough eyeballs to warrant consideration, and I think those 2 will be invited to join before Labor Day. I don't think Stanford does and Cal for sure doesn't.

That's my amateur opinion.
 
#731      

SuperintendentChalmers

SuperintendentChalmers
SuperintendentChalmers
gibb52 said:
Oregon and Udub would bring enough eyeballs to warrant consideration, and I think those 2 will be invited to join before Labor Day. I don't think Stanford does and Cal for sure doesn't.

That's my amateur opinion.
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Honestly, given the athletic debt problems (Look! We took $25M from the university and our department turned a $3M profit!) and now the swimming coach scandal, if Stanford goes to the B1G and the Pac 12 implodes, I think the school would seriously consider seriously downgrading their intercollegiate athletics. There was a time when the state would not have let UCLA bolt without them, but nary a peep here.
 
#732      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
redwingillini11 said:
Now, as influential as Phil Knight is, I have no idea how much sway he can have when the real power brokers are the tv people.
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Well, Nike is a huge power broker, and apparel sponsorships are a big line item for (some) athletic departments just like TV contracts are.

But Nike is a publicly traded company with a board of directors and Knight himself is 84 and no longer actively running the company. He can't just force Nike to pay over the odds for some massive sponsorship deal to bribe his beloved alma mater into the B1G.

He could try to do it out of his own money, but that's a smaller pool and makes less sense.

He does have a rolodex like no one else in the industry though, and you can bet it's getting a workout. Incomplete information won't be UO's problem.

SuperintendentChalmers said:
There was a time when the state would not have let UCLA bolt without them, but nary a peep here.
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Different states have different politics of course, but I think the very confident declarations of a decade ago that certain pairs of state schools were simply inseparable has proven to just be false in practice. It didn't change, it was just never true in the first place.
 
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#733      

Joel Goodson

Joel Goodson
respect my decision™
Joel Goodson
gibb52 said:
Oregon and Udub would bring enough eyeballs to warrant consideration, and I think those 2 will be invited to join before Labor Day. I don't think Stanford does and Cal for sure doesn't.

That's my amateur opinion.
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They'll definitely warrant consideration. Initially, I strongly felt they'd almost immediately get invites. Upon further review, I'm a lot less certain of that. Seems like they fall into the tweener category, based solely an expected revenues garnered by their addition. Obviously, other factors are in play. Gonna be interesting.
 
#734      

SuperintendentChalmers

SuperintendentChalmers
SuperintendentChalmers
ChiefGritty said:
Different states have different politics of course, but I think the very confident declarations of a decade ago that certain pairs of state schools were simply inseparable has proven to just be false in practice. It didn't change, it was just never true in the first place.
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There is the famous case of Ann Richards telling the Big XII that they couldn't get Texas and A&M without bringing her alma mater (though not a state school) of Baylor along. However, I agree that the overwhelming and nonexistent loyalty probably means these deals are done if they ever existed.
 
#735      

Mr. Tibbs

Mr. Tibbs
southeast DuPage
Mr. Tibbs
SuperintendentChalmers said:
There is the famous case of Ann Richards telling the Big XII that they couldn't get Texas and A&M without bringing her alma mater (though not a state school) of Baylor along. However, I agree that the overwhelming and nonexistent loyalty probably means these deals are done if they ever existed.
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that has been told many times and I believe it, but that was in the 1980's and she held alot of power in that state.
she made sure Baylor and T Tech got in, and thumbed her nose at TCU, Rice , SMU and Houston

that was a totally different era in college sports in so many respects.
Just think, for many years the SWC was a very viable conference of 8 schools from Texas and also Arkansas.
 
#736      

Illinirog70

Illinirog70
Illinirog70
ChiefGritty said:
If Stanford joins the Big Ten, I will happily admit that there is a role for academic considerations in this process, even if just for pure appearances, that I have been underrating.

For the moment I am certain Stanford is not a candidate. Honestly I'm probably more interested in them than Kevin Warren is.
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Adding Stanford does give you the Bay area, so there's that in addition to academics.
 
#738      

TriangleIL

T
TriangleIL
I would put a decent amount of money on Oregon, UW, Stanford and ND being the next pieces of this puzzle. They may not happen all at once, but they are the most likely next 4 in. The obvious end game is some combination of ACC schools and some entry into Texas if i were to guess. I just don't see a good Texas fit though. Pull the rug from SEC and nab Texas only (no Oklahoma) and then we are talking super conference.
 
#739      

spotter

S
spotter
TriangleIL said:
I would put a decent amount of money on Oregon, UW, Stanford and ND being the next pieces of this puzzle. They may not happen all at once, but they are the most likely next 4 in. The obvious end game is some combination of ACC schools and some entry into Texas if i were to guess. I just don't see a good Texas fit though. Pull the rug from SEC and nab Texas only (no Oklahoma) and then we are talking super conference.
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The only realistic scenario I see of a Texas college going into the B1G, is if TAMU is upset with Texas joining the SEC. I said before, I'm sure TAMU took their water-boarding and is now "fine" with their hated-on-every-level rival in the same conference - even though they left the Big 12 to get away from the 'Horns.
 
#740      

AutoPoster 3000

AutoPoster 3000
AutoPoster 3000
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Which of these could negotiate the most lucrative media rights contract, measured in terms of payout per team:

1) 16-team B1G as it stands today
2) 17-team B1G with Notre Dame
3) 20-team B1G with Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, and Stanford
4) 20-team B1G with Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, and somebody from either the Pac-12 or Big 12 other than Stanford
5) 24-team B1G, having raided the ACC, you pick 'em
6) Other
 
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#741      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
AutoPoster 3000 said:
View attachment 18785


Which of these could negotiate the most lucrative media rights contract, measured in terms of payout per team:

1) 16-team B1G as it stands today
2) 17-team B1G with Notre Dame
3) 20-team B1G with Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, and Stanford
4) 20-team B1G with Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, and somebody from either the Pac-12 or Big 12 other than Stanford
5) 24-team B1G, having raided the ACC, you pick 'em
6) Other
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2, 1, then 3 and 4 (which aren't meaningfully different), then 5.

Dead last is an 18 or 20 team arrangement with Big/Pac 12 schools but no ND.

The Big Ten has no financial incentive to take anyone except for ND ever again. Neither does the SEC for that matter.

Their incentive is to sign massive media contracts the rest can't compete with and watch them wither and die and become entities not worthy of considering for admission over the course of many years.

Turning the lights off on big time college sports in Chapel Hill, NC or Clemson, SC is the same concept with the same incentives as doing it in Manhattan, KS or Corvallis, OR.

The reason this works differently in the pros is because the expansion franchises pay hundreds of millions of dollars to be let in. Maybe we get there in college sports, I guess we'll see.

But with the ACC trapped in a below market deal and the Big 12 and the Pac 12 now neutered individually and collectively, no competitor to the Big Two can exist.
 
#744      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
ChiefGritty said:
If Stanford joins the Big Ten, I will happily admit that there is a role for academic considerations in this process, even if just for pure appearances, that I have been underrating.

For the moment I am certain Stanford is not a candidate. Honestly I'm probably more interested in them than Kevin Warren is.
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If you need Stanford to get Notre Dame, the Big Ten would immediately do the math and take both. Notre Dame is that valuable.
 
#745      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
Mr. Tibbs said:
thats embarrassing .
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We all have our pet narratives for it, but it really can't be overemphasized how much damage to the appeal of Illinois sports was done during the period between Zook's Rose Bowl and the emergence of Ayo & Co.

In hoops we have so many in-bred advantages that when combined with the right leadership and a richly earned dose of luck we got ourselves back on our feet. It's a real possibility there's just no getting a heartbeat back into the football program though. That might be true of a lot of lesser Power Five programs for various reasons.
 
#746      

the juiceman cometh

T
the juiceman cometh
Joel Goodson said:
Which college football programs bring in the most TV viewers?: https://medium.com/run-it-back-with...ams-bring-in-the-most-tv-viewers-efc03c689e50

Stanford has a pretty good case and we're very fortunate we're already a member.
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Stanford gets more than a little help in this regard from that ND game., which probably accounts for a disproportionate chunk of that viewership. Their home attendance numbers, which I think can be used to show popularity while blunting the ND on NBC skew, are not as strong. #45 according to this (average attendance over 5-year span). Not terrible but behind Utah, Arizona, Louisville, ASU, Iowa St. to name a few. What's more, these were some strong seasons for the Cardinal. All of them 9+ win seasons.

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(We are at #56, but with how awful we've been that's not a surprise.)

Edit: Just to clarify, I think you take Stanford if that means you get ND. But I don't think they're even a top 10 target otherwise. They don't have enough value independent of ND.
 
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#747      

Joel Goodson

Joel Goodson
respect my decision™
Joel Goodson
the juiceman cometh said:
Stanford gets more than a little help in this regard from that ND game., which probably accounts for a disproportionate chunk of that viewership. Their home attendance numbers, which I think can be used to show popularity while blunting the ND on NBC skew, are not as strong. #45 according to this (average attendance over 5-year span). Not terrible but behind Utah, Arizona, Louisville, ASU, Iowa St. to name a few. What's more, these were some strong seasons for the Cardinal. All of them 9+ win seasons.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

(We are at #56, but with how awful we've been that's not a surprise.)

Edit: Just to clarify, I think you take Stanford if that means you get ND. But I don't think they're even a top 10 target otherwise. They don't have enough value independent of ND.
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Looking at it strictly from football (or all sports) revenue, you're likely correct. But I don't think that's the only factor.
 
#748      

the juiceman cometh

T
the juiceman cometh
Joel Goodson said:
Looking at it strictly from football (or all sports) revenue, you're likely correct. But I don't think that's the only factor.
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I don't think the conference is adding anyone for purely academic reasons. No way. Maybe academics as a way to rule a program out, but definitely not as the primary factor to bring a program in. There's a reason we added Rutgers and not NYU, or Maryland and not Johns Hopkins. Heck, if academics is king then the easy solution is we take Rice to expand the Big Ten footprint into Texas.
 
#749      

TriangleIL

T
TriangleIL
the juiceman cometh said:
Stanford gets more than a little help in this regard from that ND game., which probably accounts for a disproportionate chunk of that viewership. Their home attendance numbers, which I think can be used to show popularity while blunting the ND on NBC skew, are not as strong. #45 according to this (average attendance over 5-year span). Not terrible but behind Utah, Arizona, Louisville, ASU, Iowa St. to name a few. What's more, these were some strong seasons for the Cardinal. All of them 9+ win seasons.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

(We are at #56, but with how awful we've been that's not a surprise.)

Edit: Just to clarify, I think you take Stanford if that means you get ND. But I don't think they're even a top 10 target otherwise. They don't have enough value independent of ND.
Click to expand...
Stanford stadium is smaller (they were at 90% capacity which I'd say is pretty good)
 
#750      

the juiceman cometh

T
the juiceman cometh
TriangleIL said:
Stanford stadium is smaller (they were at 90% capacity which I'd say is pretty good)
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Sure but a lot of other teams were at higher capacity too. If they were at 100% I'd say fine, but 90% means they could've had more and didn't. The team that draws 75k to a 100k capacity stadium still brings out 30k more fans than the team that draws 45k to a 50k stadium.
 
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