USC, UCLA to join the Big Ten in 2024

the juiceman cometh · Jul 1, 2022

spotter said:
If I'm Washington, Oregon, Wazzu, Colorado, Utah, or Oregon State, I'm also calling the Big 12 to gauge their interest. Some of those schools will not end up in the B1G or the SEC. Colorado and Utah make so much sense for the Big 12 geographically.

If you want to get really nuts, if I'm the Big 12 commissioner I really screw with things and I call ND and invite them to join the Big 12. Makes no sense for ND to leave all of their traditional opponents, but if I'm the Big 12 commissioner I think it wouldn't hurt to ask, and it might make the B1G or SEC sweat for about five minutes.

Yeah, doesn't hurt to ask but also, never gonna happen (ND to B12). I think certainly there's a high probability of some movement between the Pac12 and Big12. The question for me is, which of those two conferences is in a better position? I think if Wahington and Oregon leave then yeah, that's easy the B12 is better off and likely to absorb some of the Pac12.

But is it possible the Pac12 can convince some B12 teams to come over on the condition those two to stay, and then convince those two to stay with that expansion and then also maybe offer them a larger cut of the tv deal than the other programs? (For context, Pac12 used to give UCLA and USC a larger cut but then a few years ago changed to giving programs equal shares, which as I understand it was the origin of those two schools' dissatisfaction with the conference). If I'm running the Pac12, I think I give that a shot. It's a long shot but you gotta do something.

JJE · Jul 1, 2022

I might be missing something, but why wait on ND if there's still 4 spots left for the perceived 20 team league? Maybe it's a respect thing to ND, but I would lock up Oregon and Washington, then you'd still have 2 slots left.

RabidDawgClassic · Jul 1, 2022

spotter · Jul 1, 2022

Maybe they ran the numbers and a 20 team conference dilutes the $$$$$ too much, and they want max out at 18? Just a guess.

Snoopy · Jul 1, 2022

JJE said:
I might be missing something, but why wait on ND if there's still 4 spots left for the perceived 20 team league? Maybe it's a respect thing to ND, but I would lock up Oregon and Washington, then you'd still have 2 slots left.

Stanford/Cal might be be in line ahead of them. Really nice fit with the Big10 academically, easier travel and natural rivalries with the new LA teams. That leave 2 slots or just 1 if ND wants onboard.

SactownIllini · Jul 1, 2022

champaignchris said:
Right. The SEC schools aren’t leaving their league. You sort of assume that if the Big 10 wanted Pitt or Kansas, they’d already be members.

That leaves Cal, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Virginia, UNC, Duke and Georgia Tech. And then Notre Dame would be the one non-AAU exception they’d make.

Ranking by largest television markets:

6. San Francisco - Stanford/Cal
7. Atlanta - Georgia Tech
12. Seattle - Washington
16. Denver - Colorado
24. Raleigh-Durham - UNC/Duke
30. Salt Lake City - Utah
64. Tucson - Arizona
113. Eugene - Oregon
177. Charlottesville - Virginia

This is not entirely fair because the Tucson, Eugene and Charlottesville markets are all immediately adjacent to much larger markets… Phoenix (#11), Portland (#21) and DC (#9)

Champaign/Decatur/Springfield market is 90th, by the way.

Rankings from here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_television_markets

#6 is right next to #20 on the list (Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto) just on the other side of the Coastal Range. But there's not (yet) a huge affinity for college sports here. Hoping the Big Ten affiliation can help change that.

the juiceman cometh · Jul 1, 2022

Snoopy said:
Stanford/Cal might be be in line ahead of them. Really nice fit with the Big10 academically, easier travel and natural rivalries with the new LA teams. That leave 2 slots or just 1 if ND wants onboard.

Could see Stanford as a way to entice ND, but the more I've looked into Cal the less I see the fit. Great academically but terrible revenue generation and huge debt in the Athletic Dept. From a financial perspective may be the worst team in the Pac12 honestly.

AutoPoster 3000 · Jul 1, 2022

mattcoldagelli said:
On the one hand, yes, it's a major decision, people should be deliberative.

On the other, while it is indeed a major decision, it is not a particularly complicated one, even for Notre Dame. Staying independent is a madman's gamble at this point. If they come to grips with that, then you're picking between the B1G and the SEC. Even for all the complicated history between ND and the B1G, that's a no-brainer, especially since the B1G is now literally a coast-to-coast conference.

Absolutely. If there’s a holdup, I wonder if it’s just ND having to “speak to its manager” to leverage a few extra carveouts and conditions. Continued independence would be suicidal, NBC deal or not. Every path to the CFB playoff will be B1G/SEC sponsored. The new B1G already has five of their traditional rivals (USC, Mich, Mich St, Purdue, NW) and I’m sure the B1G can work in Stanford and/or Pitt without too much trouble. Is it that important to curbstomp Navy every November?

TheChief4Life · Jul 1, 2022

My take on things:

When all is settled, I don’t see how Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and Cal are not B1G teams. Independent of whether or not ND joins. This brings us to 20 teams.

IF, and it’s a big if, ND joins, we will reach out east to the ACC to round out to 24.

We can talk about the B1G standing pat waiting for ND all we want, but I think what others have said here is true. The B1G is probably saying “We’ll wait… but you’ve got about 2 weeks” (if even that). There will be more announcing of teams before the end of July, I feel most confident about this.

Mr. Tibbs · Jul 1, 2022

spotter said:
Maybe they ran the numbers and a 20 team conference dilutes the $$$$$ too much, and they want max out at 18? Just a guess.

you dont accept ANY new member that FOX or the B1G Network cant make the numbers come out positive.
to get a slice of pie , the total new pie has to get larger so that each slice of new pie is at least equal or more as before.

the problem with the PAC was too many schools not providing eyeballs - ie OSU, WAZZU, Cal ? UTAH ? others
schools like USC & UCLA and a few others were providing all the money

wpr · Jul 1, 2022

IllinoisRebel said:
My heart says Iowa!

They can toss Indy in too.

RML · Jul 1, 2022

MustangWally said:
Who would you like to trade for them?

PNWIllini said:
You have to remember football is driving this bus.

I almost feel bad for Duke, cuz I see no place for them (unless the SEC suddenly decides it wants to care about basketball.). Aw!

ILL_INI · Jul 1, 2022

I think you're all nuts thinking that the conference is going to go on a mad grab to increase the number of schools in the next month or two. There is absolutely zero incentive to do so. ND is the only school out there that moves the needle and it's questionable whether they are available.

the juiceman cometh · Jul 1, 2022

RML said:
I almost feel bad for Duke, cuz I see no place for them (unless the SEC suddenly decides it wants to care about basketball.). Aw!

One has to wonder if some schools that get left out will cut football altogether, as it's expensive to maintain and revenues will go down outside a major football conference. Could see programs like Duke and others forming a no-football, basketball-focused super conference.

champaignchris · Jul 1, 2022

RML said:
I almost feel bad for Duke, cuz I see no place for them (unless the SEC suddenly decides it wants to care about basketball.). Aw!

They’re a lot like Kansas. Not as bad at football, but still not great. Better academically.

In a slightly larger tv market than Kansas, but they have to share it with a much larger state school that has the loyalties of the vast majority of the locals.

ChiefGritty · Jul 1, 2022

sacraig said:
He pretends this hasn't been all about money for decades already. It's not the conferences that should be called out for not innovating; it's the NCAA. The NCAA put profit over a viable management/government/enforcement structure years ago and this is just the end result of that process.

There's a bright line distinction, IMO.

A good counterexample would be the creation of the original Big East, which was the creation of a new grouping of schools as a money grab, seeking to carve out big new deals in a changing media landscape.

The difference is that a league of Eastern basketball powers and the development of a showpiece event at Madison Square Garden created a new coherent identity that appealed to actual people, it made something more than the sum of its parts.

That's distinct from harvesting the interest that has been built over decades by a quirky, hyper-regional, rivalry based sport, ripping it all apart to create something no one wants because the fanbases of these properties are locked in in the immediate term.

Just like how every metropolitan newspaper has been harvested by cutting the costs of producing quality journalism faster than the readers can cancel their subscriptions.

Building vs harvesting is a distinction our society has lost the ability to make.

This is a tragedy, the capper in a series of tragedies, and college athletics will reap the whirlwind. The same TV executives who are champing at the bit now will be just as happy to do the same for soccer or Formula 1 or Japanese 13 year olds playing Fortnite the moment the last person who grew up caring about the real Big Ten dies.

I came here knowing what I would find in response to this news, but am disappointed nonetheless.

Mr. Tibbs said:
you dont accept ANY new member that FOX or the B1G Network cant make the numbers come out positive.
to get a slice of pie , the total new pie has to get larger so that each slice of new pie is at least equal or more as before.

Right I don't think people are looking at the strategic landscape here in the right way.

The revenue gulf between the big two and the rest is going to get bigger and bigger and compound the disparities over the coming years. There is no competition to fend off by adding schools, every other competitor is now dead.

Which actually buttresses ND's ability to remain independent. The B1G and SEC can only award their media rights to so many companies, and ND is now the last game in town for elite college football content.

BretMyBeachHouse · Jul 1, 2022

RML said:
I almost feel bad for Duke, cuz I see no place for them (unless the SEC suddenly decides it wants to care about basketball.). Aw!

Are you better yet? Because if you feel bad for Duke under any circumstances for more than 15 minutes you should see a doctor.

Snoopy · Jul 1, 2022

ChiefGritty said:
Which actually buttresses ND's ability to remain independent. The B1G and SEC can only award their media rights to so many companies, and ND is now the last game in town for elite college football content.

$$$ https://theathletic.com/3394410/2022/07/01/notre-dame-acc-big-ten-independence/

In recent weeks, as Notre Dame’s army of fundraisers prepared for the university’s next capital campaign, the conversations with major donors not only featured athletics but sometimes led with it. The asks covered facilities and endowments, ways for Notre Dame athletics to keep pace as expenses outstrip revenues.

Behind a paywall, but this quote from this article suggests ND already has trouble keeping up with the B1G-SEC payouts without substantial annual support from its Alumni. Personally I don't want ND in the B1G. Would like to see them slowly slip into major debt and irrelevance trying to keep up the 2 big conferences, eventually finding themselves on the outside looking in when the SEC and B1G shut the playoff door for independents.

AutoPoster 3000 · Jul 1, 2022

ChiefGritty said:
Which actually buttresses ND's ability to remain independent. The B1G and SEC can only award their media rights to so many companies, and ND is now the last game in town for elite college football content.

The Harlem Globetrotters are the last game in town for elite professional basketball content.

SuperintendentChalmers · Jul 1, 2022

AutoPoster 3000 said:
Absolutely. If there’s a holdup, I wonder if it’s just ND having to “speak to its manager” to leverage a few extra carveouts and conditions. Continued independence would be suicidal, NBC deal or not. Every path to the CFB playoff will be B1G/SEC sponsored. The new B1G already has five of their traditional rivals (USC, Mich, Mich St, Purdue, NW) and I’m sure the B1G can work in Stanford and/or Pitt without too much trouble. Is it that important to curbstomp Navy every November?

I think Notre Dame's brass always knew that the Big Ten was the best landing spot, but antipathy between ND and B1G fans pushed the Irish toward the much weaker ACC because the school just didn't want to deal with their alumni crying bloody murder about how Fielding Yost was anti-Catholic 108 years ago. There seems to be a huge attitude shift this time as even the ND diehards know that there are two doors left and one is much more palatable. Don't expect to see any more nonsense about how it's just so darned important to fly into Spartanburg and Winston-Salem to preserve Notre Dame's status as a national school.

The Galloping Ghost · Jul 1, 2022

ChiefGritty said:
There's a bright line distinction, IMO.

A good counterexample would be the creation of the original Big East, which was the creation of a new grouping of schools as a money grab, seeking to carve out big new deals in a changing media landscape.

The difference is that a league of Eastern basketball powers and the development of a showpiece event at Madison Square Garden created a new coherent identity that appealed to actual people, it made something more than the sum of its parts.

That's distinct from harvesting the interest that has been built over decades by a quirky, hyper-regional, rivalry based sport, ripping it all apart to create something no one wants because the fanbases of these properties are locked in in the immediate term.

Just like how every metropolitan newspaper has been harvested by cutting the costs of producing quality journalism faster than the readers can cancel their subscriptions.

Building vs harvesting is a distinction our society has lost the ability to make.

This is a tragedy, the capper in a series of tragedies, and college athletics will reap the whirlwind. The same TV executives who are champing at the bit now will be just as happy to do the same for soccer or Formula 1 or Japanese 13 year olds playing Fortnite the moment the last person who grew up caring about the real Big Ten dies.

I came here knowing what I would find in response to this news, but am disappointed nonetheless.

Right I don't think people are looking at the strategic landscape here in the right way.

The revenue gulf between the big two and the rest is going to get bigger and bigger and compound the disparities over the coming years. There is no competition to fend off by adding schools, every other competitor is now dead.

Which actually buttresses ND's ability to remain independent. The B1G and SEC can only award their media rights to so many companies, and ND is now the last game in town for elite college football content.

I was waiting for you to pop up in this thread. You didn't disappoint. I don't necessarily agree with your viewpoint on conference expansion, but I always appreciate reading your opinion on it.

Illini in Italy · Jul 1, 2022

sacraig said:
It absolutely intersects with the academic mission, though, if indirectly. Major success in college athletics has an effect on the number of applications to a school. Assuming the school doesn't get larger and that the applications are randomly distributed in quality, the result is a more selective admissions and higher average quality of student being admitted. Those both affect academic rankings and improve academic programs.

So even though athletics and academics draw from different pools of money, they are not completely divorced from one another. Athletics are an excellent marketing tool for the academic side.

I agree 100% - this describes college athletics as we’ve known it for over 100 years. With the current state of college sports however, colleges have lost or are losing control of the business model, and as another poster suggested what we have is a budding minor league sports system that is trying to morph into a sustainable business model. If and when this happens, will universities allow themselves to be associated with a model in which they have zero control over anything having to do with the business? There will be a parting of the ways, and without that university link to the tens or hundreds of thousands of alumni, the new minor league teams will simply die as they will be competing for everything with the NFL/NBA/NHL/MLB with a product that is not comparable in quality, and will not have all of the money that they seem to have in unlimited amounts today.

mattcoldagelli · Jul 1, 2022

ChiefGritty said:
That's distinct from harvesting the interest that has been built over decades by a quirky, hyper-regional, rivalry based sport, ripping it all apart to create something no one wants because the fanbases of these properties are locked in in the immediate term......This is a tragedy, the capper in a series of tragedies, and college athletics will reap the whirlwind.

I am more than willing to grant that, as an Illinois fan, I am perhaps uniquely positioned to not be nostalgic here. Because 1) we have been mostly bad and forgettable at football over the course of my life 2) I have never even for a nanosecond entertained the possibility of us playing for a football national championship and 3) we don't have real rivals (in football). You're just never gonna get me to shed tears because we might play Michigan less frequently. Michigan could care less about that game. Are we missing out because we don't have our own Iron Bowl-style blood rivalry? Assuredly! But we don't have it, so I can't mourn it, even hypothetically.

So I am earnestly asking for an explanation of the downsides for me, the Illinois fan. From a macro perspective, this is a financial and brand visibility boon to not just our athletic department but our university as a whole. In the micro, this gives me some more fun places where I can watch the Illini, and perhaps a higher floor of competition when I make the trip to Champaign.

Is there a larger conversation to be had about the future of TV and a stratified have/have not system in college athletics? Certainly, but frankly, those wheels are in motion regardless of how many teams are in the B1G.

Stevegarbs · Jul 1, 2022

ChiefGritty said:
There's a bright line distinction, IMO.

A good counterexample would be the creation of the original Big East, which was the creation of a new grouping of schools as a money grab, seeking to carve out big new deals in a changing media landscape.

The difference is that a league of Eastern basketball powers and the development of a showpiece event at Madison Square Garden created a new coherent identity that appealed to actual people, it made something more than the sum of its parts.

That's distinct from harvesting the interest that has been built over decades by a quirky, hyper-regional, rivalry based sport, ripping it all apart to create something no one wants because the fanbases of these properties are locked in in the immediate term.

Just like how every metropolitan newspaper has been harvested by cutting the costs of producing quality journalism faster than the readers can cancel their subscriptions.

Building vs harvesting is a distinction our society has lost the ability to make.

This is a tragedy, the capper in a series of tragedies, and college athletics will reap the whirlwind. The same TV executives who are champing at the bit now will be just as happy to do the same for soccer or Formula 1 or Japanese 13 year olds playing Fortnite the moment the last person who grew up caring about the real Big Ten dies.

I came here knowing what I would find in response to this news, but am disappointed nonetheless.

Right I don't think people are looking at the strategic landscape here in the right way.

The revenue gulf between the big two and the rest is going to get bigger and bigger and compound the disparities over the coming years. There is no competition to fend off by adding schools, every other competitor is now dead.

Which actually buttresses ND's ability to remain independent. The B1G and SEC can only award their media rights to so many companies, and ND is now the last game in town for elite college football content.

Kudos for proper use of "champing" vs. "chomping" at the bit. We must run a similar gantlet of bad vocabulary...

the juiceman cometh · Jul 1, 2022

ChiefGritty said:
The revenue gulf between the big two and the rest is going to get bigger and bigger and compound the disparities over the coming years. There is no competition to fend off by adding schools, every other competitor is now dead.

Wouldn't this same logic have kept professional leagues from expansion? And yet, the premier pro leagues have all, without exception, gotten bigger over time.

Also, doesn't the inclusion of USC and UCLA sort of demand at least some continued expansion in the West? Those two schools now are a bit of a scheduling nightmare. Save for their games agaisnt each other, there is no easy travel within the conference for them. Unless 2 or 3 more Pac 12 teams join the B1G. Scheduling becomes easier and travel costs can be mitigated somewhat. Economies of scale, of a sort.