Week 12 Games

#5      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
If you're interested, I've made a spreadsheet with all possible outcomes in the B1G West.

You can filter/sort by any combination of individual game results or final # of wins per team.

 
#6      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
In B1G West action this week, root for Northwestern, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Unless we pull the upset in Ann Arbor we need at least one of those things to keep our Indy hopes alive.

Great spreadsheet put together, but we would not want to blanket root for Iowa to win over MN (in likely event of a loss vs Mich). An Iowa win over MN would require them lose to Nebraska in every scenario where Illini win West. I believe there is a greater likelihood of Wisc beating MN than Iowa losing to Nebraska.

If Illinois pulls off upset, then it is no brainer to root for Iowa to win out (which allows us to win and in vs NW, regardless of what Purdue does over next 2 weeks); otherwise I would root for MN over Iowa and then Wisconson to win over Nebraska and then MN. And of course then root for NW to beat Purdue or IU to beat Purdue.

Rooting interest on the 3PM Iowa-MN game really depends on what Illnois does first and if Wisc beats Nebraska at 11 am. My gut tells me I will end up rooting for MN, but I hope I am wrong and Illini shock world on Saturday!
 
#7      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
Great spreadsheet put together, but we would not want to blanket root for Iowa to win over MN (in likely event of a loss vs Mich). An Iowa win over MN would require them lose to Nebraska in every scenario where Illini win West. I believe there is a greater likelihood of Wisc beating MN than Iowa losing to Nebraska.

If Illinois pulls off upset, then it is no brainer to root for Iowa to win out (which allows us to win and in vs NW, regardless of what Purdue does over next 2 weeks); otherwise I would root for MN over Iowa and then Wisconson to win over Nebraska and then MN. And of course then root for NW to beat Purdue or IU to beat Purdue.

Rooting interest on the 3PM Iowa-MN game really depends on what Illnois does first and if Wisc beats Nebraska at 11 am. My gut tells me I will end up rooting for MN, but I hope I am wrong and Illini shock world on Saturday!
Dream scenario:

Week 12
1) Illini beat Mich
2) NW beat Purdue
3) Iowa beat MN

Week 13
1) Nebraska beats Iowa on 11/25

Result would be Illini clinching West on 11/25 before Saturday action.
 
#8      
Dream scenario:

Week 12
1) Illini beat Mich
2) NW beat Purdue
3) Iowa beat MN

Week 13
1) Nebraska beats Iowa on 11/25

Result would be Illini clinching West on 11/25 before Saturday action.
The sad thing is that I see only one of those options really being feasible... :(
 
#9      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Let's just assume for a minute that Purdue beats the Kitties. In that case, I think our rooting interest for Iowa/MN is pretty clear by the time it starts.

- Illini lose, Wisconsin wins -> root for whoever you think is more likely to lose their last game (probably Minnesota)

- Illini lose, Wisconsin loses -> root for Iowa (a Minnesota win would eliminate us)

- Illini win, Wisconsin loses -> root for Iowa
--- If we beat NW and Purdue loses to IU it won't matter, we control our destiny
--- If we beat NW and Purdue beats IU, we'll need Iowa to win out
--- If we flop against NW, we could still sneak in, but only if Iowa beats Minnesota

- Illini win, Wisconsin wins -> root for Iowa (if you think we'll beat NW), or Minnesota (if you think we'll slip up).
--- Same as above if we beat NW and Purdue loses to IU
--- Same as above if we beat NW and Purdue beats IU
--- If we flop against NW, we could still sneak in, but it would depend on one other game:
---- If Iowa beat Minnesota, we'd need Nebraska to beat Iowa - less likely
---- If Minnesota beat Iowa, we'd need Wisconsin to beat Minnesota - more likely
 
#10      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
The sad thing is that I see only one of those options really being feasible... :(
I did some quick research of what Vegas might offer for this scenario (current as of today), with my best guess of what the ML would be for Nebraska to beat Iowa if the first three legs hit:

1) Illini over Mich (+650)
2) NW over Purdue (+800)
3) Iowa over MN (+118)
4) Nebraska over Iowa (guessing around +600)

If you calculate that out, it would put the odds around 1,030 to 1. So if you want to go to Vegas and request this type of bet, I would assume you could get a payout of $103,005 on a $100 bet.

So there is still a better chance than winning the lottery...
 
#11      
I did some quick research of what Vegas might offer for this scenario (current as of today), with my best guess of what the ML would be for Nebraska to beat Iowa if the first three legs hit:

1) Illini over Mich (+650)
2) NW over Purdue (+800)
3) Iowa over MN (+118)
4) Nebraska over Iowa (guessing around +600)

If you calculate that out, it would put the odds around 1,030 to 1. So if you want to go to Vegas and request this type of bet, I would assume you could get a payout of $103,005 on a $100 bet.

So there is still a better chance than winning the lottery...
Hahaha, wow.

What's interesting is I get a better payout for betting on NW over Purdue than Illinois over Michigan? That seems odd!
 
#14      

Dan

Admin
Week 12 Games Thread

Saturday, November 19th

Northwestern at Purdue
11:00am CT - FS1

Wisconsin at Nebraska
11:00am CT - ESPN

Indiana at Michigan State
11:00am CT - BTN

Ohio State at Maryland
2:30pm CT - ABC

Penn State at Rutgers
2:30pm CT - BTN

Iowa at Minnesota
3:00pm CT - FOX

USC at UCLA
7:00pm CT - FOX

Utah at Oregon
9:30pm CT - ESPN
 
#17      

Captain 14

The Last Best Place
College Gameday set in Montana. 7am Sat showtime temp: 2. Should be a good watch. 20221118_140607.jpg