Week 12 Games

#1      

aaeismacgychel

A
aaeismacgychel
So, unfortunately with it looking like Iowa is going to take down Rutgers, to make the B10 Championship, the following pretty much has to happen:

ILL:
W @ Iowa
W v NW

Iowa:
L v ILL
L @ Neb

Neb:
L @ Wisky
W v Iowa

Wisky:
W v Neb
L @ Minn

Minnesota winning out could technically cancel out Wisconsin winning out, but they're not beating OSU, so this is pretty much our only path. Hanging on by a thread, but doable.
 
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#2      

Illinicpa14

I
Chicago
Illinicpa14
aaeismacgychel said:
So, unfortunately with it looking like Iowa is going to take down Rutgers, to make the B10 Championship, the following pretty much has to happen:

ILL:
W @ Iowa
W v NW

Iowa:
L v ILL
L @ Neb

Neb:
L @ Wisky
W v Iowa

Wisky:
W v Neb
L @ Minn

Minnesota winning out could technically cancel out Wisconsin winning out, but they're not beating OSU, so this is pretty much our only path. Hanging on by a thread, but doable.
Click to expand...
Thanks for this - so basically 3 games outside our control needed
 
#3      

TheChief4Life

TheChief4Life
TheChief4Life
OKay, if you are following along, here's Illinois' only path to winning the West:
1699755673113.png

1. Illinois has to win out, or they cannot win the west (there are a handful of other teams that still can, but Illinois absolutely could not).
2. Iowa has to lose out, or Iowa wins the west.
3. Assuming both those things happen, we need Nebraska to lose to Wisconsin (since Nebraska would have to beat Iowa) since they have the tiebreaker with us.
4. Assuming 1 through 3 happen, we need Wisconsin to lose to Minnesota (since Wisconsin would have to beat Nebraska) since they have the tiebreaker with us.
5. Every other game is a non-determining factor.

I am fairly confident this is Illinois' only path to the West. First priority, though: win 6 games.
 
#4      

aaeismacgychel

A
aaeismacgychel
TheChief4Life said:
OKay, if you are following along, here's Illinois' only path to winning the West:
View attachment 28913
1. Illinois has to win out, or they cannot win the west (there are a handful of other teams that still can, but Illinois absolutely could not).
2. Iowa has to lose out, or Iowa wins the west.
3. Assuming both those things happen, we need Nebraska to lose to Wisconsin (since Nebraska would have to beat Iowa) since they have the tiebreaker with us.
4. Assuming 1 through 3 happen, we need Wisconsin to lose to Minnesota (since Wisconsin would have to beat Nebraska) since they have the tiebreaker with us.
5. Every other game is a non-determining factor.

I am fairly confident this is Illinois' only path to the West. First priority, though: win 6 games.
Click to expand...
So there is technically 1 other possibility where tiebreakers get a little bit stranger and it'd be if Minnesota were to beat OSU and Wisconsin and Nebraska were to beat Wisconsin and Iowa. It would create a 4 team tie for 1st. However after the first tiebreaker, Iowa would be eliminated in 4th. The Illinois, Minnesota, and Nebraska tie is knotted in the first tiebreaker and would head to the 2nd tiebreaker which is overall record against the west in which Illinois and Minnesota would tie at 3-3, however Nebraska at 5-1 would be the winner and would move on to Indy. So just some clarification if someone asks, but, what you have is indeed correct in the lone path remaining for us to get to Indy.
 
#5      

Chukwuwumba

Chukwuwumba
Chukwuwumba
TheChief4Life said:
OKay, if you are following along, here's Illinois' only path to winning the West
1. Illinois has to win out, or they cannot win the west (there are a handful of other teams that still can, but Illinois absolutely could not).
2. Iowa has to lose out, or Iowa wins the west.
3. Assuming both those things happen, we need Nebraska to lose to Wisconsin (since Nebraska would have to beat Iowa) since they have the tiebreaker with us.
4. Assuming 1 through 3 happen, we need Wisconsin to lose to Minnesota (since Wisconsin would have to beat Nebraska) since they have the tiebreaker with us.
5. Every other game is a non-determining factor.

I am fairly confident this is Illinois' only path to the West. First priority, though: win 6 games.
Click to expand...
Let’s get crazy. Bunch of these teams are 5-5. bIG will want them bowl eligible. Mommy loses to osu…to get them eligible, they beat Wisconsin. So therefore wisc has to beat nebby; and nevvy has to beat Iowa. If NU beats Purdue; it’s ok if they lose to ILL. It’s like bowl sudoku. Probably could’ve condensed this to say…if it plays out like the chart, all those teams are bowl eligible, and ILL wins BIG west.
 
#6      

TheChief4Life

TheChief4Life
TheChief4Life
aaeismacgychel said:
So, unfortunately with it looking like Iowa is going to take down Rutgers, to make the B10 Championship, the following pretty much has to happen:

ILL:
W @ Iowa
W v NW

Iowa:
L v ILL
L @ Neb

Neb:
L @ Wisky
W v Iowa

Wisky:
W v Neb
L @ Minn

Minnesota winning out could technically cancel out Wisconsin winning out, but they're not beating OSU, so this is pretty much our only path. Hanging on by a thread, but doable.
Click to expand...
Oh, I’m a dork, I didn’t see you had posted this earlier in the day yesterday. I am only now seeing this now that Dan moved the post here. I basically just regurgitated your post 🤦‍♂️
 
#7      

IlliniFaninHoosierLand

IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
College Gameday heading to Harrisonburg, VA next weekend for Appalachian State-James Madison.

There are some marquee games next weekend (UGA-Tennessee and Washington-Oregon State) but not sure that there would be enough intrigue in those to warrant traveling to those game sites. Nothing wrong with them going to see the undefeated Dukes.
 
#9      

Dan

Dan
Admin
Dan
Week 12 news & games thread

Saturday, November 18th

Purdue at Northwestern
11:00am CT - BTN

Michigan at Maryland
11:00am CT - FOX

Michigan State at Indiana
11:00am CT - BTN

Rutgers at Penn State
11:00am CT - FS1

Utah at Arizona
1:30pm CT - Pac12

Georgia at Tennessee
2:30pm CT - CBS

Minnesota at Ohio State
3:00pm CT - BTN

Kansas State at Kansas
6:00pm CT - FS1

Nebraska at Wisconsin
6:30pm CT - NBC

Washington at Oregon State
6:30pm CT - ABC
 
#10      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
TheChief4Life said:
OKay, if you are following along, here's Illinois' only path to winning the West:
View attachment 28913
1. Illinois has to win out, or they cannot win the west (there are a handful of other teams that still can, but Illinois absolutely could not).
2. Iowa has to lose out, or Iowa wins the west.
3. Assuming both those things happen, we need Nebraska to lose to Wisconsin (since Nebraska would have to beat Iowa) since they have the tiebreaker with us.
4. Assuming 1 through 3 happen, we need Wisconsin to lose to Minnesota (since Wisconsin would have to beat Nebraska) since they have the tiebreaker with us.
5. Every other game is a non-determining factor.

I am fairly confident this is Illinois' only path to the West. First priority, though: win 6 games.
Click to expand...
I will say right off the bat that I REALLY want to win the West. I have gone to the Big Ten Championship Game twice with my Iowa friends, and let me tell you that the experience and environment is SO worth it, regardless of the result of the game. Besides, at least up until that kickoff, anything is possible! The environment in Downtown Indy is so fun - Big Ten fans everywhere, the bar scene is great, there is a very noticeable buzz, etc. So, I am really trying to be optimistic. :cool:

With that said, I have this terrible feeling that #3 and #4 will happen in an infuriatingly "wrong" order (like Wisconsin winning at Minnesota but losing to Nebraska).

1. Illini win out. No problem! I am not saying it is likely, but this one is pretty easy to swallow - you either win the two games you have to, or you had no business winning the West. I am also cautiously optimistic we can win both games.
2. Iowa losing out. Also not that nervous about this! One would obviously be to the Illini, and I could see the Huskers being really up for that final game in Lincoln.

Then I get a little nervous. It would be SO nice to have that Wisconsin game back. :cry:
 
#13      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Using the ESPN score predictors (I consider ESPN to more or less be a joke but not sure how else to approach this) on the app regarding the things we need to happen outlined above that are NOT in our control...

2. 35.6% chance of Iowa losing at Nebraska.
3. 70.6% chance of Nebraska losing at Wisconsin.
4. 41.2% chance of Wisconsin losing at Minnesota.

Personally, I think the odds for #2 should be way higher (close to 50/50), the odds for #3 should be lower (maybe 60/40) and the odds for #4 and should be higher (closer to 50/50). Of course, this is the part the team can focus on:

1A) 24.9% chance of Illini beating Iowa.
1B) 58.8% chance of Illini beating Northwestern.

In simple terms, beat Iowa and we can REALLY start to dream of Indy. Numbers 2-4 are not outlandish in the slightest, especially since we need the home team to win every time.

P.S. How Iowa is it to have a 75.1% chance of winning a game where they are only 3-point favorites at home. :ROFLMAO:
 
#15      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
UofToledoFans said:
This Toledo team is special. Brought 10k fans too... RIP to which ever B1G team gets Toledo in the Detroit Bowl if they are 12-1.
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You set your sights too low. If Tulane and Liberty stumble at all, I think there is still the potential for crashing the New Year's Six Party.

But yes, whatever B1G team gets stuck in Detroit playing Toledo is in for a long afternoon.
 
#16      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Using the ESPN score predictors (I consider ESPN to more or less be a joke but not sure how else to approach this) on the app regarding the things we need to happen outlined above that are NOT in our control...

2. 35.6% chance of Iowa losing at Nebraska.
3. 70.6% chance of Nebraska losing at Wisconsin.
4. 41.2% chance of Wisconsin losing at Minnesota.

Personally, I think the odds for #2 should be way higher (close to 50/50), the odds for #3 should be lower (maybe 60/40) and the odds for #4 and should be higher (closer to 50/50). Of course, this is the part the team can focus on:

1A) 24.9% chance of Illini beating Iowa.
1B) 58.8% chance of Illini beating Northwestern.

In simple terms, beat Iowa and we can REALLY start to dream of Indy. Numbers 2-4 are not outlandish in the slightest, especially since we need the home team to win every time.

P.S. How Iowa is it to have a 75.1% chance of winning a game where they are only 3-point favorites at home. :ROFLMAO:
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3 points is a lot for an Iowa team with that defense. The models probably predict another 9-6 game or 10-6 game; but yes, that is a crazy statistic. Iowa is such a confusing team in the modern era of college football. Really looking forward to seeing how newly arriving explosive offensive teams from the West Coast perform against Iowa next year.
 
#17      

UofToledoFans

UofToledoFans
UofToledoFans
Illini2010-11 said:
You set your sights too low. If Tulane and Liberty stumble at all, I think there is still the potential for crashing the New Year's Six Party.

But yes, whatever B1G team gets stuck in Detroit playing Toledo is in for a long afternoon.
Click to expand...
I'm on "the midnight blue and gold Launchpad Podcast," (a mouth full I know.) Yhe last segment we did was on the NY6 race a couple weeks ago and ALOT of things have gone Toledos way.

Liberty is in it with their gaudy record, but no P5 played. Also 2-0 in point spread vs. Toledo in common opponents with 1 left. Toledo was the last team to beat them in the 2022 Boca Bowl.

Tulane is in it with name recognition only. Memphis has the best resume of the American teams. SMU has 2 P5 losses and has dubbed every other team but no one over. 500 yet.

JMU if eligible takes the cake, and also opens the door for Troy who power ranks ahead of Toledo, but with a loss to a good Kansas State team by like 30.

The MWC is cooked. SJSU making the title and helping Toledos SOS would be great.
 
#19      

Mr. Tibbs

Mr. Tibbs
southeast DuPage
Mr. Tibbs
Colorado loses big to Washington St. 4-7 on the year and 1-7 since starting 3-0
unless he just flat out kills it in the portal this offseason, he will kind the B12 to be just about as tough as the PAC has been
Playing conference games in the big boy leagues is not easy
 
#20      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Using the ESPN score predictors (I consider ESPN to more or less be a joke but not sure how else to approach this) on the app regarding the things we need to happen outlined above that are NOT in our control...

2. 35.6% chance of Iowa losing at Nebraska.
3. 70.6% chance of Nebraska losing at Wisconsin.
4. 41.2% chance of Wisconsin losing at Minnesota.

Personally, I think the odds for #2 should be way higher (close to 50/50), the odds for #3 should be lower (maybe 60/40) and the odds for #4 and should be higher (closer to 50/50). Of course, this is the part the team can focus on:

1A) 24.9% chance of Illini beating Iowa.
1B) 58.8% chance of Illini beating Northwestern.

In simple terms, beat Iowa and we can REALLY start to dream of Indy. Numbers 2-4 are not outlandish in the slightest, especially since we need the home team to win every time.

P.S. How Iowa is it to have a 75.1% chance of winning a game where they are only 3-point favorites at home. :ROFLMAO:
Click to expand...

Agreed, and add in the fact that all 3 teams are fighting for 6 wins and bowl eligibility. Wisconsin will be desperate to get their bowl eligibility today at home. Minnesota and Nebraska will both be desperate to get there 6th win at home next week.

We definitely should've taken care of business against Wisconsin and/or Nebraska... But all things considered we've got a decent shot at this thing still.
 
#22      

IlliniFaninHoosierLand

IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
Today's schedule involving the state schools:

-EIU at Robert Morris, 11:00 AM CT, ESPN+
-ISU at North Dakota, 1:00 PM CT, ESPN+
-Indiana State at SIU, 1:00 PM CT, ESPN+
-South Dakota at WIU, 1:00 PM CT, ESPN+


EIU is still a longshot to make the FCS playoffs though if ISU wins at North Dakota, then that might give them a better shot as it would be a quality win against another potential playoff team.
 
#24      

Mr. Roberts

Mr. Roberts
Mr. Roberts
Purdue is completely one dimensional without Card. Northwestern up 23-7. They will be bowl eligible before they play us next week.
 
#25      

IlliniFaninHoosierLand

IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
I know we talk about commentators a lot on here but the color commentator in this EIU-Robert Morris game is absolutely horrible. I know listening to the opposing call I won't always get a fully "neutral" perspective but good lord this guy is just awful. With a lot more games being on ESPN+, most of the games I hear, even by the EIU commentary team, are at least somewhat neutral. This color commentator is WAY too reactive to stuff that may happen in Robert Morris' favor.