Week 8 Polls - Illinois unranked in AP Poll

Status
Not open for further replies.
#101      
I love the AP Poll, warts and all - it's nostalgic and one of the few remaining counterweights to a more analytics-obsessed perspective (rapidly gaining in popularity) where I feel not enough credit is given to the types of teams that do more with less and find ways to win. With that said, this has always been my biggest issue with how the rankings work, and it's glaring in this week's poll. The voters seem to use a quasi-ladder approach to ranking teams; win and move up, lose and move down. They are rarely, if ever, ACTUALLY just ranking who they think the top 25 best teams are in order ... and I am okay with that!! Part of the nostalgia, lol. However, it makes ZERO sense to both reward a team for winning AND punish a team for losing too far in either direction.

I can't count the number of times I have seen (especially in hoops) the #5 team lose at an unranked team that was receiving votes or something, and then something like the following takes place:

(A) #5 team drops to like #17 because "clearly they aren't a top 5 team if they're losing to that unranked team."
(B) Unranked team skyrockets up to #20 because "clearly we didn't realize how good this team actually was, and they just proved themselves."

Either it was an impressive upset BECAUSE the higher-ranked team is STILL a very good team (and thus shouldn't drop that far for one loss to a team we now think is good) or it was an embarrassing defeat that "exposed" the higher-ranked team but didn't really necessarily indicate that the team who got the upset was that good. So, I ask this ... and maybe there is a legitimate answer.

What could we have done in the voters' eyes to stay at #17? If we had beaten OSU, I guarantee you that we would have skyrocketed to the top 10 ... and rightfully so. As things stand, we scored more points on a historically good OSU defense than anyone so far this year, and a what was a 20-10 game midway through the fourth quarter turned into a 34-16 OSU win after they made us pay for our mistakes. Sorry, but to me that is exactly what we should expect if OSU is the true #1 and they go on the road to play a team who should be ranked in the #20-25 range. Instead, we dropped more than 8 spots. Lol, I get it if we laid an egg like at Indiana, but we didn't ... and Indiana only looks more elite by the day! Not to mention the absurdity of having USC 5+ spots in front of us after we beat them and have just as impressive of a resume to-date. People can talk about "2 losses!" all they want, but it isn't our fault that we had two teams who are now proving to be among the top three in the nation on our schedule in the first half, haha.

I know it "doesn't matter" (I find it really weird and annoying how often people who DON'T care about something feel the need to try to get OTHERS to not care, too ... has a very "misery loves company" vibe to it that is quite off-putting), but it is annoying nonetheless. The pollsters did not find it reasonable to not rank us after the IU blowout loss, so anyone still bringing that up is off-base, IMO, not to mention with how great Indiana has continued to look. This kind of reminds me of during the 2023-24 basketball season when SO many people were saying things like, "I just don't know if this is a #3 seed team" without looking around at what OTHER teams are more deserving than we are ... looking at this through an Illini-centric pessimistic POV is kind of dumb when the argument you ACTUALLY need to make is that Nebraska deserves the #25 spot over us.
 
#102      
I get that the IU loss was extremely bad, but I don't get the reaction from our fans who are using it say something like "IL is not a top 25 team, and it's ridiculous to believe that we should be in consideration for the CFP is we finish 10-2."

1. IU looks really good. Other than OSU and maybe Miami, I'm not sure there's anyone in the country that looks comparably good. Getting blown out by a top 3 team is not uncommon at all for a #10-15 ranked team. There's just a big difference between teams at those levels.

2. The OSU game wasn't in the same league as the loss to IU. It's pretty much the same number of points as Texas beat OU. It wasn't great, but it was pretty much expected.

3. We're not the first team to be highly ranked and get blown out of the water this bad. I did a very quick search, and #1 USC beat #11 UCLA 66-19 in 2005. UCLA only dropped 6 spots. In 2008, #5 Oklahoma beat #2 Texas Tech 65-21. Texas Tech only dropped 5 spots. It's not a foregone conclusion that you drop out of the polls when you suffer a terrible loss. Sometimes things just happen.
 
#103      
Because they started from what #9? I’m not an AP voter, but I would have dropped them completely out. A 2nd loss, and it’s no surprise they are out.

No team is gonna drop from top 10 all the way out of the top 25 on one loss. 2 losses, yes. Uncompetitive losses for sure with one uber uber uncompetitive loss
 
Last edited:
#104      
3. We're not the first team to be highly ranked and get blown out of the water this bad. I did a very quick search, and #1 USC beat #11 UCLA 66-19 in 2005. UCLA only dropped 6 spots. In 2008, #5 Oklahoma beat #2 Texas Tech 65-21. Texas Tech only dropped 5 spots. It's not a foregone conclusion that you drop out of the polls when you suffer a terrible loss. Sometimes things just happen.
The biggest difference between Illini 2025 and these other teams is when the game was played. Your two examples are late in-season games when the polls are much more stable. A blowout loss if you are highly ranked won't suffer as large of a drop by nature. Our two larger sized losses to good teams are happening much earlier in the season when the polls are more volatile. Larger drops are expected in early season games, especially blowout losses.

After suffering two very large losses early in the season, it is actually a testament to the credit the Illini are getting in the polls to be still in top 25 territory. The Illini are certainly getting respect nationally.

To your first point, if Illini go 10-2, they will certainly be in consideration for CFP berth, but the two large losses will make it more difficult for us to be selected over another 2 loss B1G or SEC team.
 
#105      
I take a # 25 ranking in the coaches poll over not being ranked in the AP as a more true value of where the college environment views us.........coaches know football and assess results better than sportswriters whom some even say they didn't watch all the games played on the preceding weekend............

I'll take the coaches poll and bask in the glory of still being ranked and not bat an eye......JMHO.......
 
#106      
The biggest difference between Illini 2025 and these other teams is when the game was played. Your two examples are late in-season games when the polls are much more stable. A blowout loss if you are highly ranked won't suffer as large of a drop by nature. Our two larger sized losses to good teams are happening much earlier in the season when the polls are more volatile. Larger drops are expected in early season games, especially blowout losses.

After suffering two very large losses early in the season, it is actually a testament to the credit the Illini are getting in the polls to be still in top 25 territory. The Illini are certainly getting respect nationally.

To your first point, if Illini go 10-2, they will certainly be in consideration for CFP berth, but the two large losses will make it more difficult for us to be selected over another 2 loss B1G or SEC team.
I’m not actually concerned about us not being ranked right now. My comment is directed to the people who say we’re terrible and of course you drop out after a terrible loss. I expect we’ll back in next week after we show how tough we are beating…no one.

We’re in complete agreement. Win out from here (tough but doable) and we’ll be in consideration. I actually think we’ll be in at 2 losses because I don’t think you’ll have more than 3 SEC teams with 2 losses or fewer. The question becomes what happens if the B1G 2 loss teams are us and USC. I think we get in then.
 
#107      
On the AP poll and specifically this point in the season...it's my observation that here in early-ish October is the exact spot in the season were there's the most disparity amongst rankings in the polls and therefore the most arguing amongst fan bases. The "what about" this and "makes no sense" that, are at their peak. We are thru the cup cake portion of the schedule that largely defines September, and now we have only 1/3rd of the conference games played. Stating the obvious, but these next 3-4 weeks will yield a much clearer and more organized picture and this week's points of contention will largely be forgotten.
 
#109      
I said it before, but the loss to Indiana is basically 1.5 losses in most eyes. Ohio State was close enough, and we played a decent game, but obviously we are still a tier lower than the top 10.
 
#110      
I said it before, but the loss to Indiana is basically 1.5 losses in most eyes. Ohio State was close enough, and we played a decent game, but obviously we are still a tier lower than the top 10.
But I don't think ANYBODY thinks we are top 10 ... they think we have a reasonable argument to be top 25.

Anyway, as a reminder we are currently the first team in the RV category, so effectively #26. Here are some games where I think the teams immediately in front of us could lose, allowing us to slip back into the top 25 before we travel to Seattle:

#25 Nebraska at Minnesota (Friday) ... Gophers haven't looked great this year, but they might feel like they need a win and this just seems like the type of game that Nebraska always loses in modern times, lol.

#23 Utah at #15 BYU ... I think anything more than a one-score loss likely knocks the Utes out of the rankings.

One interesting note is that the two teams directly behind us are RV #27 Michigan and RV #28 Washington ... and they play in Ann Arbor on Saturday! It would be awesome if the Huskies could score that victory and be ranked when we play them.
 
#111      
I said it before, but the loss to Indiana is basically 1.5 losses in most eyes. Ohio State was close enough, and we played a decent game, but obviously we are still a tier lower than the top 10.
Indiana may be the best team in the country. I think they likely are. However, the gap between the #1 and the 12 team in the playoff may be significant. Especailly if it was missing basically its entire secondary. I don't think the gap between us and OSU is that large. It came down to turnovers on our end that we hadn't been making. We were likely are 12 last year and I think we are again now. If we win out it will be hard to keep us out of the playoffs with if OSU and IU keep winning. I'm not sure OSU will
 
#112      
#25 Nebraska at Minnesota (Friday) ... Gophers haven't looked great this year, but they might feel like they need a win and this just seems like the type of game that Nebraska always loses in modern times, lol.
Agree, this is a dangerous one for Nebraska. Minnesota hasn't looked great but is undefeated at home including 2-0 in Big Ten play. Both of Nebby's road victories this season were by just 3 points, to Cincinnati and Maryland. I'm just fundamentally also not a Nebraska believer. They have an easy schedule but haven't really been winning convincingly even against these middle/lower tier Big Ten teams. They're going to drop a couple of those and this might be one right here.
 
#113      
Agree, this is a dangerous one for Nebraska. Minnesota hasn't looked great but is undefeated at home including 2-0 in Big Ten play. Both of Nebby's road victories this season were by just 3 points, to Cincinnati and Maryland. I'm just fundamentally also not a Nebraska believer. They have an easy schedule but haven't really been winning convincingly even against these middle/lower tier Big Ten teams. They're going to drop a couple of those and this might be one right here.
It's also worth noting that the Cincinnati game was only technically a road game due to how it was scheduled several years ago. It got moved from Cincinnati's campus to Indianapolis and finally to Kansas City, where THIS was the crowd, haha...

98d9ygmvlylf1.jpeg


As anyone who watched the game can tell you, that isn't Bearcats red! :ROFLMAO:
 
#114      
It's also worth noting that the Cincinnati game was only technically a road game due to how it was scheduled several years ago. It got moved from Cincinnati's campus to Indianapolis and finally to Kansas City, where THIS was the crowd, haha...

98d9ygmvlylf1.jpeg


As anyone who watched the game can tell you, that isn't Bearcats red! :ROFLMAO:
Good point, didn't realize that!
 
#115      
It's also worth noting that the Cincinnati game was only technically a road game due to how it was scheduled several years ago. It got moved from Cincinnati's campus to Indianapolis and finally to Kansas City, where THIS was the crowd, haha...

98d9ygmvlylf1.jpeg


As anyone who watched the game can tell you, that isn't Bearcats red! :ROFLMAO:
I said it back in Week 1 and I'll say it again, I'd be mad as hell if I were a Cincinnati fan. Whoever in the athletic department let that happen screwed the team out of any kind of advantage, and given it was a 3-point game, you can't tell me that wouldn't have factored in.
 
#120      
It’s hard to not argue that we’re being overly punished by the big IU loss. It’s like nobody is paying attention to why things went that way, although the self-imposed mistakes against tOSU don’t help either.

Agree that USC is overrated and Washington is underrated- that Washington game is gonna be a good challenge and benchmark for us imho. At least USC’s ranking helps our resume.

Not sure I agree that Oregon is not that far overrated though. They will adjust after that IU loss - Dan Lanning is among the elite coaches and they have too much talent to stay down for long.
 
#121      
What if USC beats Notre dame. Is Notre Dame knocked out? What if Washington beats Michigan and then we beat Washington? Does that help us? My point is that there are a lot of scenarios left to play out. USC doesn't usually travel that well but Notre Dame is a rivalry. USC could still wind up losing a game or two. SO, a lot of football left to be played.
 
#122      
What if USC beats Notre dame. Is Notre Dame knocked out? What if Washington beats Michigan and then we beat Washington? Does that help us? My point is that there are a lot of scenarios left to play out. USC doesn't usually travel that well but Notre Dame is a rivalry. USC could still wind up losing a game or two. SO, a lot of football left to be played.
If Notre Dame loses, they’re out. That’s 3 losses and they don’t play a single top 25 team after that game so they would finish the year with 0 good wins.

USC still has to play Oregon, so they likely finish with two losses. I fear they would get in over us if we’re both 10-2, so we probably want them to pick up a 3rd loss along the way.
 
#124      
If Notre Dame loses, they’re out. That’s 3 losses and they don’t play a single top 25 team after that game so they would finish the year with 0 good wins.

USC still has to play Oregon, so they likely finish with two losses. I fear they would get in over us if we’re both 10-2, so we probably want them to pick up a 3rd loss along the way.
I'll admit it. I'm a Raiders Fan and to quote the late Al Davis. "JUST WIN BABY!". Given our only 2 losses are to teams are likely to have 0 or1 loss, if we win out we will fine and in the playoffs.
 
#125      
Agree, this is a dangerous one for Nebraska. Minnesota hasn't looked great but is undefeated at home including 2-0 in Big Ten play. Both of Nebby's road victories this season were by just 3 points, to Cincinnati and Maryland. I'm just fundamentally also not a Nebraska believer. They have an easy schedule but haven't really been winning convincingly even against these middle/lower tier Big Ten teams. They're going to drop a couple of those and this might be one right here.
My ego can't handle how right I've been on stuff this week. I'm going to need to issue some ice cold takes soon or it's going to get out of hand.

happy told you so GIF
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back