Week of 1/12 Games Thread

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#1      

Dan

Dan
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Dan
Welcome to the (non-IL) men's college basketball games thread.
 
#2      
RabidDawgClassic
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#4      
Fighter of the Nightman
Unless there are some huge upsets this week, it's a surprisingly boring week on paper for Big Ten games, at least as far as their expected impacts on the standings. Here are the Big Ten standings but only the teams with one or fewer losses:

#5 Purdue: 5-0
#8 Nebraska: 5-0

#4 Michigan: 4-1
#12 Michigan State: 4-1
#13 Illinois: 4-1

And these are the games each of those teams has this week...

#5 Purdue ... vs. Iowa and at USC
#8 Nebraska ... vs. Oregon and at Northwestern

#4 Michigan ... at Washington and at Oregon
#12 Michigan State ... vs. Indiana and at Washington
#13 Illinois ... at Northwestern and vs. Minnesota

Obviously, any number of those games could have surprise outcomes ... after all, a Wisconsin team that had looked pretty bad this year just beat a #2 Michigan team that had looked invincible in Ann Arbor! However, it wouldn't shock me at all to see all 5 of those early contenders go 2-0 this week.
 
#5      
2qtslow
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Unless there are some huge upsets this week, it's a surprisingly boring week on paper for Big Ten games, at least as far as their expected impacts on the standings. Here are the Big Ten standings but only the teams with one or fewer losses:

#5 Purdue: 5-0
#8 Nebraska: 5-0

#4 Michigan: 4-1
#12 Michigan State: 4-1
#13 Illinois: 4-1

And these are the games each of those teams has this week...

#5 Purdue ... vs. Iowa and at USC
#8 Nebraska ... vs. Oregon and at Northwestern

#4 Michigan ... at Washington and at Oregon
#12 Michigan State ... vs. Indiana and at Washington
#13 Illinois ... at Northwestern and vs. Minnesota

Obviously, any number of those games could have surprise outcomes ... after all, a Wisconsin team that had looked pretty bad this year just beat a #2 Michigan team that had looked invincible in Ann Arbor! However, it wouldn't shock me at all to see all 5 of those early contenders go 2-0 this week.
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It wouldn't shock me to see any of the top five go 2-0 this week, but it would surprise me to see all five do so. Take a whole bunch of underdogs with, say, a 30% chance of winning, and eventually one or more of them will manage the upset. Three of the top teams travel to the west coast this week. All that travel can wear one down.
 
#6      
mysterio2525
2qtslow said:
It wouldn't shock me to see any of the top five go 2-0 this week, but it would surprise me to see all five do so. Take a whole bunch of underdogs with, say, a 30% chance of winning, and eventually one or more of them will manage the upset. Three of the top teams travel to the west coast this week. All that travel can wear one down.
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clearly you have lost money on parlays as well!
 
#7      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
2qtslow said:
It wouldn't shock me to see any of the top five go 2-0 this week, but it would surprise me to see all five do so. Take a whole bunch of underdogs with, say, a 30% chance of winning, and eventually one or more of them will manage the upset. Three of the top teams travel to the west coast this week. All that travel can wear one down.
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Exactly. And we can do this with our schedule as well. It’s seems to me the games being considered the toughest are: NEB, MSU, MU, PU, west coast swing of two games.

However, it’s more likely than not we drop at least one of the other games as well. Each individual game isn’t the hardest matchup, but when you add them up considering life in the big ten, you’re likely to drop one or two. We saw it with Michigan against Wisconsin.
 
#8      
2qtslow
mysterio2525 said:
clearly you have lost money on parlays as well!
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No, actually, since I almost never bet on anything.

My only experience betting any sort of parlay is mildly amusing. Our office attended a seminar in Chicago and our boss, who'd just invested in a race horse, wanted to have dinner at an off-track betting parlor. That seemed to compel me to at least bet something. I recalled that in The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy I learned that the meaning of life was "42". So, I bet $2 on a daily double of 4 and 2.

It paid $65.
 
#9      
Fly Illini Fly!
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
Exactly. And we can do this with our schedule as well. It’s seems to me the games being considered the toughest are: NEB, MSU, MU, PU, west coast swing of two games.

However, it’s more likely than not we drop at least one of the other games as well. Each individual game isn’t the hardest matchup, but when you add them up considering life in the big ten, you’re likely to drop one or two. We saw it with Michigan against Wisconsin.
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To me at least, that would be pretty disappointing. Games remaining besides the ones you listed:

Road: NW, MD
Home: MINN, MD, WASH, NW, IND, WISCONSIN, ORE

If we take care of business Wednesday night (not a given, but should happen), that would mean either: a) a bone-crushing loss to end the season against an atrocious Maryland team or b) another home loss in which we are the clear favorite.

While I agree dropping one of those games might be on the table, losing more than one would really be a head scratcher.
 
#10      
mysterio2525
2qtslow said:
No, actually, since I almost never bet on anything.

My only experience betting any sort of parlay is mildly amusing. Our office attended a seminar in Chicago and our boss, who'd just invested in a race horse, wanted to have dinner at an off-track betting parlor. That seemed to compel me to at least bet something. I recalled that in The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy I learned that the meaning of life was "42". So, I bet $2 on a daily double of 4 and 2.

It paid $65.
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very nice! also smart to use gambling as what is best for... mildly entertaining form of amusement.
 
#12      
RollChief
2qtslow said:
It wouldn't shock me to see any of the top five go 2-0 this week, but it would surprise me to see all five do so. Take a whole bunch of underdogs with, say, a 30% chance of winning, and eventually one or more of them will manage the upset. Three of the top teams travel to the west coast this week. All that travel can wear one down.
Click to expand...

Below, I've ranked the odds of each of the top 5 going 2-0 this week, using KenPom game probability rankings as of today:

1. Michigan: 78% (85% @ Washington, 92% @ Oregon)
2. Illinois: 73% (78% @ Northwestern, 93% vs Minnesota)
3. Purdue: 61% (80% vs Iowa, 76% @ USC)
4. Nebraska: 53% (87% vs Oregon, 61% @ Northwestern)
5. Michigan State: 46% (73% vs Indiana, 63% @ Washington)

The odds of all 5 going 2-0 this week are 8%.
 
#13      
Fighter of the Nightman
RollChief said:
Below, I've ranked the odds of each of the top 5 going 2-0 this week, using KenPom game probability rankings as of today:

1. Michigan: 78% (85% @ Washington, 92% @ Oregon)
2. Illinois: 73% (78% @ Northwestern, 93% vs Minnesota)
3. Purdue: 61% (80% vs Iowa, 76% @ USC)
4. Nebraska: 53% (87% vs Oregon, 61% @ Northwestern)
5. Michigan State: 46% (73% vs Indiana, 63% @ Washington)

The odds of all 5 going 2-0 this week are 8%.
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Not that I did any calculations like this, but my "in-my-head" math would have had MSU at Washington and Nebraska at Northwestern a lot higher.
 
#14      
mysterio2525
RollChief said:
Below, I've ranked the odds of each of the top 5 going 2-0 this week, using KenPom game probability rankings as of today:

1. Michigan: 78% (85% @ Washington, 92% @ Oregon)
2. Illinois: 73% (78% @ Northwestern, 93% vs Minnesota)
3. Purdue: 61% (80% vs Iowa, 76% @ USC)
4. Nebraska: 53% (87% vs Oregon, 61% @ Northwestern)
5. Michigan State: 46% (73% vs Indiana, 63% @ Washington)

The odds of all 5 going 2-0 this week are 8%.
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fine if someone has to lose then I nominate Michigan to lose both games and begin the tailspin of their season. we all make sacrifices!
 
#16      
Illwinsagain
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
Exactly. And we can do this with our schedule as well. It’s seems to me the games being considered the toughest are: NEB, MSU, MU, PU, west coast swing of two games.

However, it’s more likely than not we drop at least one of the other games as well. Each individual game isn’t the hardest matchup, but when you add them up considering life in the big ten, you’re likely to drop one or two. We saw it with Michigan against Wisconsin.
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Yes, I agree. I remember the board penciling in a win against Nebraska, back in December. Which, in retrospect, the loss might have been what the team most needed.
 
#17      
NarrowJ
A bunch of good/interesting games tonight:

Indiana @ #12 Michigan St
#16 Virginia @ #20 Louisville
Texas A&M @ #24 Tennessee
#3 UConn @ #25 Seton Hall
#2 Iowa St @ Kansas
Oregon @ #8 Nebraska
#18 Alabama @ Mississippi St
#19 Florida @ Oklahoma

Kansas only a 3 point dog vs Iowa St
Oregon is a different team with Shelstad if he goes
 
#21      
Fly Illini Fly!
NarrowJ said:
A bunch of good/interesting games tonight:

Indiana @ #12 Michigan St
#16 Virginia @ #20 Louisville
Texas A&M @ #24 Tennessee
#3 UConn @ #25 Seton Hall
#2 Iowa St @ Kansas
Oregon @ #8 Nebraska
#18 Alabama @ Mississippi St
#19 Florida @ Oklahoma

Kansas only a 3 point dog vs Iowa St
Oregon is a different team with Shelstad if he goes
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Yep, would've preferred to have played them now while they suck.
 
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