Week of 1/19 Bracketology

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#76      
No big post (for now ... lol), but I wouldn't totally discount the scenario of Minnesota sneaking into the top 75 and becoming a Quad 2 win for us. They've honestly looked impressive to me for a team with a first year coach and limited talent, and I feel like they'll knock some more teams off. They're #83 right now so they have a bit of a climb, but that would be nice for us. Without analyzing the list or anything, it just feels like a year where we will have a crowded waiting area for the #2 and #3 seeds, and anything to help distinguish us from the field is a plus!

Don’t think that’s crazy at all.

Notre Dame is 81. Not to quibble over spots in the NET, but Minnesota is better than that Notre Dame team lol
 
#79      
Not a bracket, but here are updated B1G efficiency metrics, now that everyone has played 8 games (40% of the season):
1769210612501.png


Notes:
- Offensive efficiency in conference is insane. Illinois leads all offenses, and is 6th in defense in conference.
- Clear groups have formed thus far, with a top 5 all clustered together, a second 4 that is okay and borderline tournament worthy, and then 8 teams that are varying levels of not good. Bottom half of the conference this year is the worst its been in a long while.
 
#80      
Not a bracket, but here are updated B1G efficiency metrics, now that everyone has played 8 games (40% of the season):
View attachment 46747

Notes:
- Offensive efficiency in conference is insane. Illinois leads all offenses, and is 6th in defense in conference.
- Clear groups have formed thus far, with a top 5 all clustered together, a second 4 that is okay and borderline tournament worthy, and then 8 teams that are varying levels of not good. Bottom half of the conference this year is the worst its been in a long while.
Do we have the efficiency numbers out of conference?

Typically offense gets weaker once inside the conference..
 
#82      
Not a bracket, but here are updated B1G efficiency metrics, now that everyone has played 8 games (40% of the season):
View attachment 46747

Notes:
- Offensive efficiency in conference is insane. Illinois leads all offenses, and is 6th in defense in conference.
- Clear groups have formed thus far, with a top 5 all clustered together, a second 4 that is okay and borderline tournament worthy, and then 8 teams that are varying levels of not good. Bottom half of the conference this year is the worst its been in a long while.
That's 17, where is the other team? :p
 
#84      
I know how he all feel about Lunardi's credibility but he did say he'd flip us and Purdue's seed lines if we win today. Currently has Boilers as a 2 seed and Illini as a 3 seed.
 
#92      
Arizona is on a tier with Michigan right now as clear 1 seeds. Then there's a group of 8 teams including 4 B1G teams in the conversation after that.
I don't see any world where the Big 12 doesn't end up with a 1 seed and then you still have Duke and UConn who are so much better than any other team in their conferences.
 
#96      
Inching into the two seed conversation. Tied for second most Q1 wins and one of just 6 teams with 3 or more Q1A wins. There are teams with less Q1 wins, like Michigan, that have a better Q1 winning percentage (they’re 4-0, we’re 6-3). I’m not sure how the committee weighs total number of wins vs winning percentage. But definitely beginning to enter the 2 seed conversation.

IMG_0436.jpeg
 
#97      
Inching into the two seed conversation. Tied for second most Q1 wins and one of just 6 teams with 3 or more Q1A wins. There are teams with less Q1 wins, like Michigan, that have a better Q1 winning percentage (they’re 4-0, we’re 6-3). I’m not sure how the committee weighs total number of wins vs winning percentage. But definitely beginning to enter the 2 seed conversation.

View attachment 46842
Quoting myself here to add:

If the tournament were to start today, I don’t see how Michigan would get a 1 seed. Yes, their metrics are nuts, but they’re 1-0 in Q1A games. 14 teams have more. They’re 4-0 in Q1 games. Duke is 8-1, Arizona is 6-0, Nebraska is 6-0, and Connecticut is 5-1.

We’ve played 6 Q1A games. They’ve played 1. We’ve played 9 Q1 games, they’ve played 4. With our schedule, how many more losses would they have?

Plus, they’re the only team in the 1 or 2 seed conversation with a Q2 loss. I see them as more of a 2 seed now and they need to beat some quality opponents to earn a 1.
 
#98      
Quoting myself here to add:

If the tournament were to start today, I don’t see how Michigan would get a 1 seed. Yes, their metrics are nuts, but they’re 1-0 in Q1A games. 14 teams have more. They’re 4-0 in Q1 games. Duke is 8-1, Arizona is 6-0, Nebraska is 6-0, and Connecticut is 5-1.

We’ve played 6 Q1A games. They’ve played 1. We’ve played 9 Q1 games, they’ve played 4. With our schedule, how many more losses would they have?

Plus, they’re the only team in the 1 or 2 seed conversation with a Q2 loss. I see them as more of a 2 seed now and they need to beat some quality opponents to earn a 1.
that Gonzaga win is scheduled for back surgery for how much weight it's carrying for Michigan. and I don't even believe in Gonzaga!
 
#99      
Quoting myself here to add:

If the tournament were to start today, I don’t see how Michigan would get a 1 seed. Yes, their metrics are nuts, but they’re 1-0 in Q1A games. 14 teams have more. They’re 4-0 in Q1 games. Duke is 8-1, Arizona is 6-0, Nebraska is 6-0, and Connecticut is 5-1.

We’ve played 6 Q1A games. They’ve played 1. We’ve played 9 Q1 games, they’ve played 4. With our schedule, how many more losses would they have?

Plus, they’re the only team in the 1 or 2 seed conversation with a Q2 loss. I see them as more of a 2 seed now and they need to beat some quality opponents to earn a 1.
Michigan has 13 Q1/Q2 wins, 2 more than anyone else in the field, and those wins are considered wins against tourney teams. Their signature win is by 40 points on a neutral floor against #4 Gonzaga, still the best win of anyone in basketball. Plus, they're still NET #1. If the tournament starts today, they're still an easy call for a 1 seed.

EDIT: That said, it's been 3 weeks since they were that version of Michigan, but I don't think it's necessarily dropped them so much as it cut into the runway Michigan had built up over everyone else in college basketball.
 
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