Every road trip is a tough one, but I feel good in general since Illinois already has 4 road wins that are tougher.
Week of 1/19 Games Thread
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Just saw USC beat the cheeze heads.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Now they effectively have two must-win home games against mediocre teams in Ohio State and Minnesota, because they finish the season with 6 of 9 on the road, with 2 of the 3 home games being against MSU and Iowa, and their most winnable road games are back to back in Washington and Oregon.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Yes, they’re down to 40 in KenPom. Last year the teams in that range were 9, 10, 11, and 12 seeds. So they’re squarely on the bubble.
for those teams we play for sure.
KenPom had them losing 7 of their last 9 and a poster on here said that was insane.
Wisconsin just isn't very good. They do shoot a ton of 3s so when they get hot like they did at Michigan (15 for 33) they can play with anyone.
Was anyone here afraid of Wisconsin? Or anyone for that matter.
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I was afraid of Maryland at home, but they exceeded my concerns.
Posts 162 and 170 suggested they'd finish at the top of the league.
Honestly, I am still fully concerned about many of our games going forward. As fans, were still lost in "The Wagler Game". What his game covered up:
1)Outscored 44-14 in the paint(26-4 in the first half)
2)20 points off of turnovers for Purdue, 2 for us.
3)Only 10 assists on 27 made baskets
3)10 turnovers to 3
4)14 fast break points to 5.
If Purdue is going to beat us up in the paint that badly, Michigan and MSU are going to have a blast.
We're not going to win many games like that. Going nuclear from 3 sure helps. We controlled the offensive glass, which significantly helped as well. Can't leave out our effort chasing down long rebounds out. That was critical.
Boswell coming back(hopefully sooner rather than later) will help significantly with 2-5. We missed him, no doubt about it. It just got masked with a Jordanesque type game from Wagler.
1)Outscored 44-14 in the paint(26-4 in the first half)
2)20 points off of turnovers for Purdue, 2 for us.
3)Only 10 assists on 27 made baskets
3)10 turnovers to 3
4)14 fast break points to 5.
If Purdue is going to beat us up in the paint that badly, Michigan and MSU are going to have a blast.
We're not going to win many games like that. Going nuclear from 3 sure helps. We controlled the offensive glass, which significantly helped as well. Can't leave out our effort chasing down long rebounds out. That was critical.
Boswell coming back(hopefully sooner rather than later) will help significantly with 2-5. We missed him, no doubt about it. It just got masked with a Jordanesque type game from Wagler.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
I always have one eye on Wisconsin… just like I always have one eye on my bank accounts and credit card statements.
Absolutely. But honestly, with the body of work Illinois has put together (so far), I’d be totally fine with a split.
Anyone thinking it won’t be tough just doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Michigan State went 17-3 last season - TWO of the three losses came to UCLA and USC.
My personal goal has always been to host the Michigan game with 4 losses. All we need to do to make that happen is 1) take care of our home games and 2) split the west coast. The Purdue win was so massive.
We can debate whether or not the other teams get to 4 Ls, but you’d certainly be on the doorstep. The top and middle of the conference is very good this year.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
Why do you guys always set your goals so low? My goal is to go into the Michigan game on a 17 game winning streak. Are you afraid of success? Are you so used to failure? Set your damn goals high. If we stumble, reevaluate. But why do you go into a mission willing to accept anything other than the best possible outcome?
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
So far, the middle of the league has just two wins against the top of the league (UCLA over Purdue and Wisconsin over Michigan). The bottom of the league has zero.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3 loss champ.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
To add to this, here’s the number of ranked road games for each of the top 5:
Nebraska: 1 (W’s already @ Illinois and vs Michigan St)
Michigan St: 2
Illinois: 2
Michigan: 3
Purdue: 2
So if I were to guess the finish as of now, I’d go:
1 Nebraska
2 Michigan St
3 Illinois (ranking us lower than MSU currently due to the home loss to Nebraska)
4 Michigan (since they have a middle of league home loss and most tough road games)
5 Purdue (since they already have a home loss and a middle of the league loss)
Could absolutely see Nebraska finishing 17-3. They have just one remaining road game against a ranked opponent.
Another data point showing the middle of the league is pretty light this year: there are currently 5 teams ranked in the top 11 of the AP poll, but zero teams between 12-25.
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A 2-0 week for us squarely puts us into the “favorites” category.. win our next 4 & it’s quickly turning into our league to lose…
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
I don’t believe you can count on any upsets of the B1G’s top five (home or road) from the following:
Washington
Rutgers
Oregon
Maryland
Penn State
Slim chance for an upset at home but not on the road:
Northwestern
Minnesota
Decent chance of an upset at home but slim chance on the road:
Indiana
Ohio State
USC
Really good chance of an upset at home and could stun you on the road
Iowa
Wisconsin
UCLA
Will eat each other alive home and road
Illinois
Michigan
Nebraska
Michigan State
Purdue
I'll play the scenario out:
scUM 4 losses: Wiscy, @PU, @IL, @MSU
MSU 4 losses: @Nebby, @PU, @Michigan, @either Indiana or Wisconsin
Purdont 4 losses: @UCLA, IL, @Nebby, @1/3 of Iowa, OSU, Indiana
Nebby 4 losses: @Michigan, @Iowa, @UCLA, @USC
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I'll concede saying the middle is "very good." I agree the league is mostly driven by the amount of great teams at the top.
My question to the bolded would be this -- has there been enough games played (so far) where one of the top5 TRAVELS TO this collection of teams?
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Sean Harrington released his +/- rankings (+1 for road win / -1 for home loss). Typically, a +5 is enough to win the league. That puts you at 15-5. Nebraska is already at a +5. We’re in second place so far at +4. Purdue has a long road ahead at +2.
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