Week of 1/20 Bracketology

jrichisamazing said:

I'm actually really interested to see how the committee handles Duke. With the ACC being so weak this year, their schedule is almost Gonzaga-esque. They have 4 Q1 wins now, but they only have 3 more Q1 games remaining. With how tough the SEC, B1G, and Big12 are.... there are going to be a good chunk of teams with more Q1 wins.

If they completely run through their schedule as expected, then obviously they are a 1 seed. But if they drop a game or 2, does the committee punish them? And how much?

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Probably depends on who they lose to. If those are Q2 losses, probably not a big deal. If they are Q3 losses, they might get dinged for it. I think the win against Auburn insulates them some, as Auburn appears to far and away be the best team and Duke is the only team so far to beat them. I honestly hope Duke doesn't suffer any bad losses until they face us. We are clearly the toughest game left on their schedule and I wouldn't want it to be a situation where they come into our game thinking they need to make a statement. I'd much rather we go into that game trying to prove something.

jrichisamazing said:

I'm actually really interested to see how the committee handles Duke. With the ACC being so weak this year, their schedule is almost Gonzaga-esque. They have 4 Q1 wins now, but they only have 3 more Q1 games remaining. With how tough the SEC, B1G, and Big12 are.... there are going to be a good chunk of teams with more Q1 wins.

If they completely run through their schedule as expected, then obviously they are a 1 seed. But if they drop a game or 2, does the committee punish them? And how much?

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Why is this expected? Duke plays Illinois, and I expect that Illinois wins that game

And if Duke does only lose one more time (preferably to us, then they would likely still be an easy 1 seed).

One more discussion point that is Bracketology-adjacent - where the Illini could end up actually playing in March Madness. Obviously, we would hope to be in the Indianapolis Regional (the other three are San Francisco, Newark and Atlanta), but my understanding is that the Committee places "protected seeds" (i.e., top 4) in First Weekend locations without consideration of what regional they are in. So, here are the First Weekend locations available, roughly in order of how appealing I think they would be for getting a good Illini contingent there:

Milwaukee, WI (obviously)
Dayton, OH (actually decently easy to get to on I-74, right??)
Seattle, WA (given how we showed up at Washington this year...)
Denver, CO (decent hub for Illini and easy flight access)
Lexington, KY (not THAT far of a drive, but lodging not ideal)
Cleveland, OH (getting farther away)
Wichita, KS (very inconvenient)
Raleigh, NC (surprisingly expensive flights, IIRC)
Providence, RI (just not easy at all, lol)

It looks like a total of four First Round games are played at each location, and while they COULD all be from the same regional (e.g., last year, all four First Round games in Omaha were in our East Regional and directly next to each other in the bracket), they don't have to be (e.g., Purdue played in Indianapolis from the Midwest Regional, but so did Marquette out of the South Regional).

So, my question ... how likely are we to score at least a First Weekend date in Milwaukee?? FWIW, these are the teams in the top 10 of the NET Rankings and where I would guess they would be ideally placed for maximum home court advantage/minimized travel. If there wasn't a clear second, I just put one:

#1 Auburn - No great option ... all 8+ hours away. Obviously Atlanta Regional, though.
#2 Duke - Easily Raleigh.
#3 Houston - Also no great option ... Wichita??
#4 Tennessee - Lexington.
#5 Florida - No good option.
#6 Iowa State - Wichita?? Milwaukee??
#7 Alabama - See Auburn.
#8 ILLINOIS - Easily Milwaukee.
#9 Kansas - Easily Wichita.
#10 Purdue - Milwaukee, Lexington, Dayton all equally "okay."

So if we can stay in/get into that #2 or #3 seed range, I actually think there is an excellent chance we get to play our First Weekend games in Milwaukee. And that would be huge.

As for the Second Weekend ... difficult to figure out. Pretty much two things look clear as things stand right now, at least IMO:

1. They will reward Auburn with the Atlanta Regional.
2. They will reward Duke with the Newark Regional. (Duke always gets treated as a quasi-Northeast team if no NC locations are available, it seems...)

I think Indianapolis is somewhat wide open, and someone is getting shipped out to play in a 3/4 full arena in San Francisco, lol. What might bite us if we are a #2/3 seed is the Committee arbitrarily having to throw a #1 seed like Alabama into the Indianapolis region and not wanting to "punish" them by playing a #2/3 seed Illini team in front of a very orange crowd.

EDIT: Oh my God, I just looked at the 2026 sites ... can we PLEASE keep this team together (to the extent possible, obviously KJ is going pro) and add some huge pieces?! First Weekend site in St. Louis, Second Weekend in Chicago and Final Four in Indianapolis ... that is our 2005 trek in a different order!

OrangeBlue98 said:

I just don't understand why so many are scared of Auburn. Yes, a really good team. But remember that the NCAA tournament is not called like conference games in the Big Ten or even the SEC. The one game that Auburn couldn't turn into a rock fight (Duke), they got beat.

They are no different than any of the other 10-12 teams that have a very good chance to be playing in the Final Four.

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Hope you're right but I am definitely in the 'scared of Auburn' group.

Are we Duke's toughest game remaining?

Edit for the @the juiceman cometh mind-reading

Battle89 said:

Hope you're right but I am definitely in the 'scared of Auburn' group.

Are we Duke's toughest game remaining?

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Agreed on Auburn ... and even though the ~realists~ in the room will shout that I am being a conspiracy theorist, you just KNOW we would be the #2/3 seed in Auburn's region. It would likely be easily justifiable using the "S Curve" or whatever, and the storyline with Auburn would be too good for them to pass up.

As for Duke, it would appear definitely. These are their remaining games using the NET Rankings:

at #77 Wake Forest
vs. #118 NC State
vs. #38 North Carolina
at #153 Syracuse
at #31 Clemson
vs. #128 Cal
vs. #79 Stanford
at #139 Virginia
vs. #8 Illinois (New York, NY)
at #231 Miami (FL)
vs. #67 Florida State
vs. #77 Wake Forest
at #38 North Carolina

We are one of THREE Quad 1 games they have remaining. For comparison, we have 7 Quad 1 games remaining, and 6 of those opponents are ranked higher than Clemson (their toughest remaining ACC opponent)!! Lol. If Duke isn't 24-2 heading into our MSG matchup with them, they REALLY messed up somewhere, haha. The only excusable loss is maybe at Clemson, but I think Duke is just a MUCH better team and should win.

Let's hope we hold up our end of the bargain and make that a truly amazing matchup. The only game between now and then that I think we "should" lose or whatever is at Wisconsin ... so you could theoretically have #1 Duke at 24-2 vs. ~#6 Illinois at 21-6 at Madison Square Garden.

Fighter of the Nightman said:

Agreed on Auburn ... and even though the ~realists~ in the room will shout that I am being a conspiracy theorist, you just KNOW we would be the #2/3 seed in Auburn's region. It would likely be easily justifiable using the "S Curve" or whatever, and the storyline with Auburn would be too good for them to pass up.

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Don't even need the conspiracy theories Fighter, especially if the NCAA keeps to its traditions (rules?) about avoiding early rematches as much as possible. As of today (I know this is AP and not NET, the point still stands), we will have played 4 of the top 8. And 5 if the committee wants to avoid the rematch with ISU from last year's S16 game. I can easily see us in Auburn's region - but my tinfoil hat would then have us a 4 seed!

Yeah playing Auburn in Atlanta would easily be the worst draw we could get.

jrichisamazing said:

Yeah playing Auburn in Atlanta would easily be the worst draw we could get.

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That would be this year’s “UConn in Boston” in terms of a 1 seed in a favorable location. But again, Auburn 2025 is not anything close to UConn 2024z

jrichisamazing said:

Yeah playing Auburn in Atlanta would easily be the worst draw we could get.

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Better than running into Bruce Pearl in hell. If we do get that draw... Show KJ and tomi some background videos about Satan and let them unleash hell!

Fighter of the Nightman said:

EDIT: Oh my God, I just looked at the 2026 sites ... can we PLEASE keep this team together (to the extent possible, obviously KJ is going pro) and add some huge pieces?! First Weekend site in St. Louis, Second Weekend in Chicago and Final Four in Indianapolis ... that is our 2005 trek in a different order!

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Really?? I might have to go to that one whether the Illini are in or not. It wouldn't even require an overnight stay for me.

AyoDos11 said:

Really?? I might have to go to that one whether the Illini are in or not. It wouldn't even require an overnight stay for me.

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If you've never gone to a first weekend as a neutral fan, I'd definitely recommend it. Went to the first two rounds in Raleigh back in 2004. Flew out to meet a buddy who lived there, and a group of us went to all of the games. Had a four-game setup with Duke, Wake Forest, Florida (who was defeated by Manhattan in a 12-5 upset), and Seton Hall vs Arizona in a fun 8-9 game. Obviously had big crowds with Wake and Duke playing. The only bad thing about Raleigh was that there really wasn't anything around the arena. I'd say that even Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines has more around it than what Raleigh's arena has. But that clearly won't be an issue with St. Louis.

Yesterday's games created some separation between some of the potential 3-5 seeds. West Virginia, Purdue, Missouri, Wisconsin, Mississippi State all losing helps us a bit. It might not make a big difference overall but it puts us in a more favorable position to get a 4 seed or higher versus a 5.

Old Farm Illini said:

Yesterday's games created some separation between some of the potential 3-5 seeds. West Virginia, Purdue, Missouri, Wisconsin, Mississippi State all losing helps us a bit. It might not make a big difference overall but it puts us in a more favorable position to get a 4 seed or higher versus a 5.

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Our NET rank is 8, which implies a 2 seed more than a 4 or 5.

2qtslow said:

Our NET rank is 8, which implies a 2 seed more than a 4 or 5.

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NET traditionally does not guarantee anything (it is only one metric of many that the committee uses). Houston was NET #2 in 2022 and got a 5 seed (who beat us as a 4 seed when we were 15 NET).

Right now I think we are much closer to a 4 seed than anywhere near a 2 seed. That is not saying the team cannot get to a 2 seed, but the Illini would have to go on a tear in February. Most mock brackets have us in the 3 or 4 range. We will have a much better idea of how the committee views our resume in mid-Feb.

I do agree though that we are in no risk of falling below a 4 seed at this point.

2qtslow said:

Our NET rank is 8, which implies a 2 seed more than a 4 or 5.

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Feels like if Illinois can really go on a run, they'd be in great position for a 2 seed. Ideally, the bracket would not involve not playing Auburn in Atlanta. But all told, Illinois has been a pretty strong road team this season and I'm genuinely not scared of any matchup. Even when they lost at Alabama (and yes, I'm calling that a road game given the proximity of Birmingham to Tuscaloosa), Illinois clawed back and was a possession away from really making that one interesting. The other games they've lost on the road they either didn't show up (Northwestern) or had several external factors working against them in a hostile environment (Michigan State).

If Illinois is a 2 seed, I'd love an Indianapolis game against a team like Iowa State or to be in San Francisco in a true neutral game environment against a team like Alabama. But honestly, if Illinois is peaking at the end of the season I'll take my chances against anyone.

Illini2010-11 said:

NET traditionally does not guarantee anything (it is only one metric of many that the committee uses). Houston was NET #2 in 2022 and got a 5 seed (who beat us as a 4 seed when we were 15 NET).

Right now I think we are much closer to a 4 seed than anywhere near a 2 seed. That is not saying the team cannot get to a 2 seed, but the Illini would have to go on a tear in February. Most mock brackets have us in the 3 or 4 range. We will have a much better idea of how the committee views our resume in mid-Feb.

I do agree though that we are in no risk of falling below a 4 seed at this point.

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I think you could reasonably say we'd be a 4 today, but our "projection" is reasonably a 3 seed ... assuming no more USC-style flops. I also hope the Committee will consider KJ was out that game, and USC is NOT that far away from playing its way into the top 75 of the NET Rankings and making that a Quad 2 loss, which would help.

It's also important to remember that the Committee has to consider a lot of less analytical things. Two examples off of the top of my head:

1. They would likely not want to punish a #1 seed by playing a lower-seeded team in hostile territory. For example, if Auburn is the overall #1 and gets the Atlanta Regional and Alabama gets the fourth #1 seed and is shipped to Indianapolis, they might not want to force #1 seed Alabama to play #3 seed Illinois for a trip to the Final Four in front of a VERY orange crowd in Indy. Depending on what they'd need to do to move teams around, they might bump Illinois from the last #3 seed to a #4 seed in another region to make that work, even if it was not their original plan for Illinois in isolation.

2. They obviously need to consider the whole "can't have a rematch before the Sweet Sixteen" (or whatever it is) requirement. They could have a perfect "fair" bracket on paper ready to go, and then they have to shift teams around to ensure no rematches, inflating some teams' seeds and deflating others' in an "unfair" way.

Fighter of the Nightman said:

2. They obviously need to consider the whole "can't have a rematch before the Sweet Sixteen" (or whatever it is) requirement. They could have a perfect "fair" bracket on paper ready to go, and then they have to shift teams around to ensure no rematches, inflating some teams' seeds and deflating others' in an "unfair" way.

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Given the consolidation of conferences and the nature of the NET rankings to incentivize playing difficult non-conference games, I think this requirement needs to quietly go away. In my opinion, it will get tougher and tougher to avoid these situations without making pretty significant changes to the brackets that move too far away from the "true" bracket.

There have been instances (albeit rare) where we've seen NFL teams play each other in the regular season and then play a week or a few later in the first round of the playoffs. I get it's a 14-team playoff in a 32-team league, but if the 2 seed plays the 7 seed in the first round, they play even if they played two weeks earlier.

While I understand the theory of your first point, I also think that should not be a major factor. These sites are determined years in advance. Sometimes, it's the nature of the process. One year, #3 Illinois might play #1 Alabama in Indianapolis. The next year, perhaps #1 Illinois has to play #3 Florida in Orlando or Tampa. It happens.

We need to win games... That's it. This is the stage last year where we got our sh1t together and stopped giving away easy games... That pushed us to the 3 seed. This year more opportunities for quad 1 wins but we have fumbled 2 games (3 if you include one of MSU or Tennessee). I think we end up same as last year... A dangerous 3 seed but there are no UConns this year (Auburn is good but not that good)

Fighter of the Nightman said:

EDIT: Oh my God, I just looked at the 2026 sites ... can we PLEASE keep this team together (to the extent possible, obviously KJ is going pro) and add some huge pieces?! First Weekend site in St. Louis, Second Weekend in Chicago and Final Four in Indianapolis ... that is our 2005 trek in a different order!

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Set up feels like 2005

OrangeBlue98 said:

Given the consolidation of conferences and the nature of the NET rankings to incentivize playing difficult non-conference games, I think this requirement needs to quietly go away. In my opinion, it will get tougher and tougher to avoid these situations without making pretty significant changes to the brackets that move too far away from the "true" bracket.

There have been instances (albeit rare) where we've seen NFL teams play each other in the regular season and then play a week or a few later in the first round of the playoffs. I get it's a 14-team playoff in a 32-team league, but if the 2 seed plays the 7 seed in the first round, they play even if they played two weeks earlier.

While I understand the theory of your first point, I also think that should not be a major factor. These sites are determined years in advance. Sometimes, it's the nature of the process. One year, #3 Illinois might play #1 Alabama in Indianapolis. The next year, perhaps #1 Illinois has to play #3 Florida in Orlando or Tampa. It happens.

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Definitely agree on the first point, but I see why they try to avoid that for the second one. One quote that always sticks with me is Dee Brown saying there was no way we could have gotten past Arizona without the 95%+ Illini crowd in Rosemont ... it can certainly be a big factor.

Just for fun, I wanted to look at clear "home game" atmospheres in the NCAA Tournament between top 4 seeds (i.e., those that are supposed to be "protected") to see if there was a pattern, obviously skipping 2021. So, naturally, these would have to be "Regional" or Sweet Sixteen games and beyond. I also tried to limit it to clear examples ... so I would exclude, say, Illinois playing Texas in Detroit or something. I also only included the Final Four for fun, as that is obviously fixed for all regions. It's very rare, all things considered.

Green is where the "home team" won, and red is where the "away team" won.

2024
#1 UConn over #3 Illinois in Boston, MA (Elite Eight) ... although we traveled well!

2017
#1 Kansas over #4 Purdue in Kansas City, MO (Sweet Sixteen)
#3 Oregon over #1 Kansas in Kansas City, MO (Elite Eight)

2015
#1 Wisconsin over #1 Kentucky in Indianapolis, IN (Final Four)

2009
#2 Michigan State over #1 UConn in Detroit, MI (Final Four)
#1 North Carolina over #2 Michigan State in Detroit, MI (National Championship)

2008
#1 North Carolina over #4 Washington State in Charlotte, NC (Sweet Sixteen)
#1 North Carolina over #3 Louisville in Charlotte, NC (Elite Eight)
#2 Texas over #3 Stanford in Houston, TX (Sweet Sixteen)
#1 Memphis over #2 Texas in Houston, TX (Elite Eight)

2007
#2 Memphis over #3 Texas A&M in San Antonio, TX (Sweet Sixteen)

2005
#1 Illinois over #3 Arizona in Rosemont, IL (Elite Eight)
#1 Illinois over #4 Louisville in St. Louis, MO (Final Four)
#1 North Carolina over #1 Illinois in St. Louis, MO (National Championship)

2003
#3 Syracuse over #1 Oklahoma in Albany, NY (Elite Eight)

2000
#1 Michigan State over #4 Syracuse in Auburn Hills, MI (Sweet Sixteen)
#1 Michigan State over #2 Iowa State in Auburn Hills, MI (Elite Eight)

So since 2000, there is really only one example of a higher-seeded team "getting screwed" and losing to a lower-seeded team before the Final Four in an effective away game - #3 Syracuse over #1 Oklahoma in Albany in 2003. So they obviously try to avoid it, but my research kind of disproved my point ...

Illini2010-11 said:

NET traditionally does not guarantee anything (it is only one metric of many that the committee uses). Houston was NET #2 in 2022 and got a 5 seed (who beat us as a 4 seed when we were 15 NET).

Right now I think we are much closer to a 4 seed than anywhere near a 2 seed. That is not saying the team cannot get to a 2 seed, but the Illini would have to go on a tear in February. Most mock brackets have us in the 3 or 4 range. We will have a much better idea of how the committee views our resume in mid-Feb.

I do agree though that we are in no risk of falling below a 4 seed at this point.

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The bracket matrix has a really good track record. Currently a 4 seed, with most of the herd having us as a 4 or 5. We could easily get to a 3 IMO, and a Duke win would be quite a statement.

What really surprised me in that research was how there was a six-year stretch between these games in one instance (2009 to 2015) and then "five" years (2017 to 2024, obviously excluding 2020 and 2021) between games like this. I realize many, many factors come into play, but I'd think it would be more like every other year or maybe every third year where you had this occur.

Not asking for this research, but I think it would be interesting to see what the record of teams playing within, say, 180 miles from campus (admittedly an arbitrary number, but I thought of that as being a maximum of 2 1/2 hours from campus) is from the 2nd round on. I'd exclude the first round primarily because of the seeding implications of a high seed always playing a low seed in the first round, but even thinking of a second round game of a 3 seed playing a 6 seed in a home environment. So for example, these would have been some of the games that would have applied last year.

UConn in Brooklyn (one game)
UConn in Boston (two games)
Iowa State in Omaha* (one game - CHI Health Center is 169 miles from Hilton Coliseum. I originally set my limit for 150 miles, but expanded to 180 to account for this since it's 140 miles from the state capitol in Des Moines and a lot of Cyclone fans to Omaha)
North Carolina in Charlotte (140 miles, one game)
Purdue in Indianapolis (one game)

* In an unusual twist, Washington State actually had to play Drake in Omaha in a 7-10 game with the winner playing Iowa State. Drake is approximately 130 miles from Omaha on the west side of Des Moines

So bottom line for me is while you'd probably prefer to not "screw" a higher-seeded team in a road-neutral type of regional final game, I also don't think you should totally manipulate the bracket simply to avoid that. So if Illinois would play Alabama in Indianapolis and you could move Illinois on the same seeding line in the West bracket, OK. I get it. But if you're going to actually move someone from a 3 to a 4 or vice versa just to avoid this, I think that's too much manual bracket manipulation.

Going back to FOTN's post about first-round sites, I think Iowa State is going to be a "swing" team to help make the brackets work from a travel perspective. It's 350 miles or so from Ames to Milwaukee, and it's four lanes all the way. It's about 420 miles from Ames to Wichita, but a large number of Iowa State alums live in the Kansas City area. There are also a lot of Cyclone fans and alums that live in the eastern half of Iowa. So I don't really see either Milwaukee or Wichita as a raging home-court advantage for Iowa State. I think the committee could slot Iowa State in either location.

I would imagine that if there's no real home-court advantage for Alabama and Auburn that they would keep them in a SEC location as opposed to an ACC location. But, that may be another situation like what's facing Iowa State. They may just look at Lexington and Raleigh and just slot teams in to make the bracket work knowing it's almost a certainty that Duke will play in Raleigh (and gets yet another favorable location that seems to happen every single year in same way). I could even see Houston going to Denver for the first round. Even though it's farther away, I can assure you it's a LOT easier for Houstonians to get to Denver compared to Wichita (but as I've said, it's difficult to get to Wichita from anywhere!).

Maybe this is just recency bias, but there doesn't really seem to be that many "slam dunk" first round locations where it's pretty obvious that a team is going to be placed there if seedings and records work out. Honestly, right now who knows if Kansas would even have a good enough record to place them in Wichita?

mysterio2525 said:

We need to win games... That's it. This is the stage last year where we got our sh1t together and stopped giving away easy games... That pushed us to the 3 seed. This year more opportunities for quad 1 wins but we have fumbled 2 games (3 if you include one of MSU or Tennessee). I think we end up same as last year... A dangerous 3 seed but there are no UConns this year (Auburn is good but not that good)

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Must have missed that PSU game last year ha

Not anything close, huh?

I think it's fair to assume you don't believe in efficiency metrics then.

Personally, I'll trust those over your own eye test.