Week of 1/26 Bracketology

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#26      
Getting an STL pod placement doesn't look too bad. There should be two STL pods (2 per site). PU is the only other top team that clearly wants STL. NE and ISU are borderline STL/OKC.

To get Chicago, I think we either need to be the top BTT seed, or the worst #3 seed from the BTT.

My reasoning -- assuming 5 top 3 seeds from the BTT(MI, MSU, IL, NE, PU):
- If the top BTT seed is a #1 seed, they and the lowest of the 3 seeds go to CHI. This maximized the distance until two of the 5 teams play.
- If the top BTT seed is a #2 seed, they go to Chi, and the bottom 3 seed gets "adjusted" to a 4 seed and also sent to Chicago. This avoids a region with both the #2 and #3 seed from the BTT.

Likely pod preferences:
It's going to come down to who finishes ahead of us that would also want to be in that pod.
So if we go down the list:
1. Zona, UCONN, Duke, Michigan- all will have 1st choice in different pod
Zona -> SD
UCONN -> Philly
Duke -> Greenville
Michigan -> Buffalo (much closer than STL)
2. Nebraska, Purdue, Houston, Gonzaga- Houston would take OKC. Fair question of whether Nebraska would also want OKC or want Chicago instead. Purdue would definitely want Chicago.
Nebraska -> STL, OKC are ~equidistant.
Purdue -> STL, backup any of Philly, Greenville, Buffalo
Houston -> OKC, backup STL
Gonzaga -> Portland

3. Iowa State, MSU, Illinois, BYU. This is where things get interesting as theoretically Iowa State, MSU, and Illinois could all want Chicago. Iowa State could go OKC and MSU could go Philly. BYU would be out West. We would obviously want Chicago.
Iowa St -> STL is slightly closer than OKC. Both OK and MO moved to the SEC. Which crowd will support a big12 team better?
MSU -> Buffalo, backup STL
BYU -> I can't see a reason to choose any particular one of Portland, SD, OKC.

4-5. Vandy, UVa, Texas Tech, Florida, Kansas, Bama, Arkansas, St. John's would all want elsewhere as a 1st pick.

The Top 2 Chicago pod wanting teams will go there, so our biggest competition is Purdue, maybe Nebraska, maybe Iowa State, maybe MSU. If Houston, Nebraska, and Iowa State all get slots ahead of us, one will probably get Chicago. So to answer your question, to get the Chicago pod, we likely need to finish as a Top 4 seed ahead of Purdue and MSU or ahead of Nebraska/Iowa State and MSU.
 
#27      
Getting an STL pod placement doesn't look too bad. There should be two STL pods (2 per site). PU is the only other top team that clearly wants STL. NE and ISU are borderline STL/OKC.

To get Chicago, I think we either need to be the top BTT seed, or the worst #3 seed from the BTT.

My reasoning -- assuming 5 top 3 seeds from the BTT(MI, MSU, IL, NE, PU):
- If the top BTT seed is a #1 seed, they and the lowest of the 3 seeds go to CHI. This maximized the distance until two of the 5 teams play.
- If the top BTT seed is a #2 seed, they go to Chi, and the bottom 3 seed gets "adjusted" to a 4 seed and also sent to Chicago. This avoids a region with both the #2 and #3 seed from the BTT.

Likely pod preferences:

Zona -> SD
UCONN -> Philly
Duke -> Greenville
Michigan -> Buffalo (much closer than STL)

Nebraska -> STL, OKC are ~equidistant.
Purdue -> STL, backup any of Philly, Greenville, Buffalo
Houston -> OKC, backup STL
Gonzaga -> Portland


Iowa St -> STL is slightly closer than OKC. Both OK and MO moved to the SEC. Which crowd will support a big12 team better?
MSU -> Buffalo, backup STL
BYU -> I can't see a reason to choose any particular one of Portland, SD, OKC.
If you like doing this as much as I do, here are some great resources:


This article details how the bracket is built.


This is a useful tool to look up what sites are located closest to every team and even has a search bar to look for specific teams without scrolling.
 
#28      
If you like doing this as much as I do, here are some great resources:


This article details how the bracket is built.


This is a useful tool to look up what sites are located closest to every team and even has a search bar to look for specific teams without scrolling.
Worth noting I believe while in general geo rules, the ADs do provide the list of locations so it’s not straight mileage.
 
#29      
If you like doing this as much as I do, here are some great resources:


This article details how the bracket is built.


This is a useful tool to look up what sites are located closest to every team and even has a search bar to look for specific teams without scrolling.
this is also one of my favorite to evaluate teams. https://bracketologists.com/
 
#32      
Worth noting I believe while in general geo rules, the ADs do provide the list of locations so it’s not straight mileage.
Yes, which in my mind I’ve been using OKC as our second location to STL when we’re technically closer to Buffalo and Greenville. But it’s just guessing. Would be nice to have true access to that info but not sure when that info has to be submitted to the NCAA.
 
#33      
I think Michigan would go to Philly for pod. MSU I think would want Chicago over Philly but not sure. Iowa State may want OKC over Chicago?
All very logical possibles, getting maybe ISU and Nebby to OKC would really help Illinois if they were say only competing with Purdue and MSU for Chicago? Good thoughts on your part.
 
#34      
Yes, which in my mind I’ve been using OKC as our second location to STL when we’re technically closer to Buffalo and Greenville. But it’s just guessing. Would be nice to have true access to that info but not sure when that info has to be submitted to the NCAA.
Would you rather your second round matchup be against 6/7 seed from the big12 or acc/big east?
 
#37      
Metrics bracket update!

Auto bids (highest NET as of this morning):
B12 - Arizona (1)
B1G - Michigan (2)
ACC - Duke (3)
WCC - Gonzaga (4)
BE - UConn (8)
SEC - Vanderbilt (13)
A10 - Saint Louis (19)
MW - Utah State (26)
MAC - Miami-OH (48)
American - Tulsa (49)
Ivy - Yale (57)
SLnd - McNeese (58)
MVC - Belmont (62)
BSth - High Point (80)
CUSA - Liberty (81)
BW - Hawaii (92)
WAC - Utah Valley (97)
CAA - William and Mary (102)
SB - Troy (103)
Summit - St. Thomas (114)
Horz - Oakland (129)
SoCon - Mercer (132)
BSky - Portland St. (133)
MAAC - Marist (151)
ASun - Lipscomb (152)
Pat - Navy (179)
OVC - UT Martin (190)
NEC - LIU (202)
AEast - Vermont (203)
SWAC - Bethune-Cookman (249)
MEAC - Howard (265)

At-large field (top 37 resume average): Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa State, Purdue, Illinois, Houston, Texas Tech, BYU, Kansas, Arkansas, Virginia, Alabama, Clemson, North Carolina, Florida, UCF, St. John's, Auburn, SMU, Villanova, Georgia, Tennessee, Saint Mary's, Kentucky, Louisville, USC, Texas A&M, Iowa, Miami FL, UCLA, Wisconsin, George Mason, New Mexico, Ohio State, California, NC State, San Diego State

Just missed: Virginia Tech, Missouri, Santa Clara, Oklahoma State, Seton Hall, Stanford, TCU, Indiana, Butler, Texas

Seeding (based on efficiency average, auto bids in bold, change from last week in parenthesis):

1 (1). Arizona (+1)
2 (1). Michigan (-1)
3 (1). Duke (+1)
4 (1). Illinois (+3)
5 (2). Michigan State (+7)
6 (2). Houston (-1)
7 (2). Iowa State (+3)
8 (2). UConn (+0)
9 (3). Gonzaga (-3)
10 (3). Purdue (-7)
11 (3). Nebraska (+2)
12 (3). Vanderbilt (-3)
13 (4). Florida (-2)
14 (4). Virginia (+0)
15 (4). Kansas (+2)
16 (4). BYU (+0)
17 (5). Texas Tech (+3)
18 (5). Louisville (-3)
19 (5). Alabama (-1)
20 (5). Iowa (-1)
21 (6). Tennessee (+1)
22 (6). Arkansas (+1)
23 (6). Saint Louis (+3)
24 (6). St. John's (-3)
25 (7). NC State (NEW)
26 (7). North Carolina (+4)
27 (7). Auburn (+7)
28 (7). Clemson (-3)
29 (8). Utah State (-5)
30 (8). Villanova (-1)
31 (8). Kentucky (-3)
32 (8). Texas A&M (NEW)
33 (9). SMU (-1)
34 (9). Georgia (-7)
35 (9). St. Mary's (-4)
36 (9). Ohio State (-1)
37 (10). Wisconsin (-1)
38 (10). Miami FL (-5)
39 (10). UCLA (NEW)
40 (10). UCF (-3)
41 (11). New Mexico (-3)
42 (11*). San Diego State (-3)
43 (11*). USC (-2)
44 (11). Tulsa (-2)
45 (11). Yale (+4)
46 (12*). California (NEW)
47 (12). Belmont (-3)
48 (12). McNeese (-1)
49 (12). Miami OH (-1)
50 (12*). George Mason (+0)
51 (13). High Point (+1)
52 (13). Liberty (+1)
53 (13). Hawaii (+1)
54 (13). Utah Valley (-3)
55 (14). William & Mary (NEW)
56 (14). Troy (+0)
57 (14). St. Thomas (+2)
58 (14). Oakland (-1)
59 (15). Mercer (+1)
60 (15). Portland St. (+1)
61 (15). Marist (-3)
62 (15). Lipscomb (+0)
63 (16). Navy (NEW)
64 (16). UT Martin (-1)
65 (16*). LIU (-1)
66 (16*). Vermont (+0)
66 (16*). Bethune-Cookman (NEW)
67 (16*). Howard (-1)

Last 4 out: Indiana, Texas, Santa Clara, LSU
Next 4 out: TCU, Washington, Akron, Butler

The gap between George Mason's resume and efficiency is only growing, hard to say that they're at-large worthy when at least 10 teams have better efficiency metrics. That still strikes me as the kind of thing the committee would do while getting too caught in the weeds on resume.

Technically, Illinois and MSU tied on efficiency metrics for 4th, but this is my list so Illinois is 4th because it's funny.
 
#39      
Yes, which in my mind I’ve been using OKC as our second location to STL when we’re technically closer to Buffalo and Greenville. But it’s just guessing. Would be nice to have true access to that info but not sure when that info has to be submitted to the NCAA.
When considering the all-important travel distance for alumni, my commute to "The Well" in Greenville is less than 2 miles (and available via trolley). Sorta hoping for the Greenville/Chicago combo if it's available this March.
 
#40      
Looking at the potential 1 seeds, I think Arizona and Duke (1 and 2 in NET, both with 9 Q1 wins) are virtual locks now.

So there are two up for grabs.

One of those two will be the best B1G team and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Michigan is that team.

The final one seed will come down to UConn, Houston, ISU, and the second best B1G team.

So, our competitive set for a 1 seed looks something like this.

Team | NET| Q1 Ws | KP | SOR

Michigan | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5
Nebraska | 5 | 6 | 12 | 2
Iowa St. | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7
UConn. | 8 | 5 | 10 | 3
MSU. | 9 | 5 | 4 | 8
Houston | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11

Our resume for reference

Illinois | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9

If we win two of @Nebraska, @MSU, and Michigan, I think we'd be in the driver's seat for at least that final 1 seed given we don't drop a silly one somewhere.
 
#41      
Metrics bracket update!

Auto bids (highest NET as of this morning):
B12 - Arizona (1)
B1G - Michigan (2)
ACC - Duke (3)
WCC - Gonzaga (4)
BE - UConn (8)
SEC - Vanderbilt (13)
A10 - Saint Louis (19)
MW - Utah State (26)
MAC - Miami-OH (48)
American - Tulsa (49)
Ivy - Yale (57)
SLnd - McNeese (58)
MVC - Belmont (62)
BSth - High Point (80)
CUSA - Liberty (81)
BW - Hawaii (92)
WAC - Utah Valley (97)
CAA - William and Mary (102)
SB - Troy (103)
Summit - St. Thomas (114)
Horz - Oakland (129)
SoCon - Mercer (132)
BSky - Portland St. (133)
MAAC - Marist (151)
ASun - Lipscomb (152)
Pat - Navy (179)
OVC - UT Martin (190)
NEC - LIU (202)
AEast - Vermont (203)
SWAC - Bethune-Cookman (249)
MEAC - Howard (265)

At-large field (top 37 resume average): Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa State, Purdue, Illinois, Houston, Texas Tech, BYU, Kansas, Arkansas, Virginia, Alabama, Clemson, North Carolina, Florida, UCF, St. John's, Auburn, SMU, Villanova, Georgia, Tennessee, Saint Mary's, Kentucky, Louisville, USC, Texas A&M, Iowa, Miami FL, UCLA, Wisconsin, George Mason, New Mexico, Ohio State, California, NC State, San Diego State

Just missed: Virginia Tech, Missouri, Santa Clara, Oklahoma State, Seton Hall, Stanford, TCU, Indiana, Butler, Texas

Seeding (based on efficiency average, auto bids in bold, change from last week in parenthesis):

1 (1). Arizona (+1)
2 (1). Michigan (-1)
3 (1). Duke (+1)
4 (1). Illinois (+3)
5 (2). Michigan State (+7)
6 (2). Houston (-1)
7 (2). Iowa State (+3)
8 (2). UConn (+0)
9 (3). Gonzaga (-3)
10 (3). Purdue (-7)
11 (3). Nebraska (+2)
12 (3). Vanderbilt (-3)
13 (4). Florida (-2)
14 (4). Virginia (+0)
15 (4). Kansas (+2)
16 (4). BYU (+0)
17 (5). Texas Tech (+3)
18 (5). Louisville (-3)
19 (5). Alabama (-1)
20 (5). Iowa (-1)
21 (6). Tennessee (+1)
22 (6). Arkansas (+1)
23 (6). Saint Louis (+3)
24 (6). St. John's (-3)
25 (7). NC State (NEW)
26 (7). North Carolina (+4)
27 (7). Auburn (+7)
28 (7). Clemson (-3)
29 (8). Utah State (-5)
30 (8). Villanova (-1)
31 (8). Kentucky (-3)
32 (8). Texas A&M (NEW)
33 (9). SMU (-1)
34 (9). Georgia (-7)
35 (9). St. Mary's (-4)
36 (9). Ohio State (-1)
37 (10). Wisconsin (-1)
38 (10). Miami FL (-5)
39 (10). UCLA (NEW)
40 (10). UCF (-3)
41 (11). New Mexico (-3)
42 (11*). San Diego State (-3)
43 (11*). USC (-2)
44 (11). Tulsa (-2)
45 (11). Yale (+4)
46 (12*). California (NEW)
47 (12). Belmont (-3)
48 (12). McNeese (-1)
49 (12). Miami OH (-1)
50 (12*). George Mason (+0)
51 (13). High Point (+1)
52 (13). Liberty (+1)
53 (13). Hawaii (+1)
54 (13). Utah Valley (-3)
55 (14). William & Mary (NEW)
56 (14). Troy (+0)
57 (14). St. Thomas (+2)
58 (14). Oakland (-1)
59 (15). Mercer (+1)
60 (15). Portland St. (+1)
61 (15). Marist (-3)
62 (15). Lipscomb (+0)
63 (16). Navy (NEW)
64 (16). UT Martin (-1)
65 (16*). LIU (-1)
66 (16*). Vermont (+0)
66 (16*). Bethune-Cookman (NEW)
67 (16*). Howard (-1)

Last 4 out: Indiana, Texas, Santa Clara, LSU
Next 4 out: TCU, Washington, Akron, Butler

The gap between George Mason's resume and efficiency is only growing, hard to say that they're at-large worthy when at least 10 teams have better efficiency metrics. That still strikes me as the kind of thing the committee would do while getting too caught in the weeds on resume.

Technically, Illinois and MSU tied on efficiency metrics for 4th, but this is my list so Illinois is 4th because it's funny.
Completely reasonable. :p
 
#42      
Looking at the potential 1 seeds, I think Arizona and Duke (1 and 2 in NET, both with 9 Q1 wins) are virtual locks now.

So there are two up for grabs.

One of those two will be the best B1G team and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Michigan is that team.

The final one seed will come down to UConn, Houston, ISU, and the second best B1G team.

So, our competitive set for a 1 seed looks something like this.

Team | NET| Q1 Ws | KP | SOR

Michigan | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5
Nebraska | 5 | 6 | 12 | 2
Iowa St. | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7
UConn. | 8 | 5 | 10 | 3
MSU. | 9 | 5 | 4 | 8
Houston | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11

Our resume for reference

Illinois | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9

If we win two of @Nebraska, @MSU, and Michigan, I think we'd be in the driver's seat for at least that final 1 seed given we don't drop a silly one somewhere.
If we win 2 of those 3 and take care of business against the rest of the conference, that would lead to 18-2. That should win the B1G, unless our one loss is Nebby and they only drop one. Still, an 18-2 B1G record should get us the last #1, like you mentioned.
 
#43      
If we win 2 of those 3 and take care of business against the rest of the conference, that would lead to 18-2. That should win the B1G, unless our one loss is Nebby and they only drop one. Still, an 18-2 B1G record should get us the last #1, like you mentioned.
Since the B10 has gone to the 20 game schedule in 2019, no team has lost less than 3 games in conference. Even wilder is that in these past 7 years only 2 teams that finished as runner up in conference lost less than 5 games in conference (They had 4 losses each). So the losses are coming for teams, just a weird season where it seems all the good teams have extremely backloaded schedules. 17-3 is probably the record that wins the B10.

As of right now these are the Kenpom predicted B10 end of season standings:
Neb: 17-3
ILL: 16-4
Mich: 16-4
MSU: 16-4
Pur: 15-5
Iowa: 12-8
Wisc: 11-9
UCLA: 11-9
OSU: 11-9
Ind: 9-11
USC: 9-11
Wash: 9-11
Minn: 7-13
Rut: 5-15
NW: 5-15
Ore: 5-15
MD: 4-16
PSU: 3-17
 
#45      
Since the B10 has gone to the 20 game schedule in 2019, no team has lost less than 3 games in conference. Even wilder is that in these past 7 years only 2 teams that finished as runner up in conference lost less than 5 games in conference (They had 4 losses each). So the losses are coming for teams, just a weird season where it seems all the good teams have extremely backloaded schedules. 17-3 is probably the record that wins the B10.

As of right now these are the Kenpom predicted B10 end of season standings:
Neb: 17-3
ILL: 16-4
Mich: 16-4
MSU: 16-4
Pur: 15-5
Iowa: 12-8
Wisc: 11-9
UCLA: 11-9
OSU: 11-9
Ind: 9-11
USC: 9-11
Wash: 9-11
Minn: 7-13
Rut: 5-15
NW: 5-15
Ore: 5-15
MD: 4-16
PSU: 3-17
There is also usually a bit more parity within the conference. This year, the conference is very top heavy. There will still be upsets, but probably fewer than in years prior.
 
#46      
If we win 2 of those 3 and take care of business against the rest of the conference, that would lead to 18-2. That should win the B1G, unless our one loss is Nebby and they only drop one. Still, an 18-2 B1G record should get us the last #1, like you mentioned.
To be clear, I think we could win 2 of those 3 and drop a game like @UCLA or something and finish 17-3 and still get a 1 seed. Once we get down to 16-4 scenarios, it gets a bit more precarious and it would require a lot of help from other teams losing around us, IMO.
 
#47      
Looking at the potential 1 seeds, I think Arizona and Duke (1 and 2 in NET, both with 9 Q1 wins) are virtual locks now.

So there are two up for grabs.

One of those two will be the best B1G team and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Michigan is that team.

The final one seed will come down to UConn, Houston, ISU, and the second best B1G team.

So, our competitive set for a 1 seed looks something like this.

Team | NET| Q1 Ws | KP | SOR

Michigan | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5
Nebraska | 5 | 6 | 12 | 2
Iowa St. | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7
UConn. | 8 | 5 | 10 | 3
MSU. | 9 | 5 | 4 | 8
Houston | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11

Our resume for reference

Illinois | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9

If we win two of @Nebraska, @MSU, and Michigan, I think we'd be in the driver's seat for at least that final 1 seed given we don't drop a silly one somewhere.

Just to add on, here are how many Q1 games each team still has to play with Q1A games in parentheses...

Michigan - 9 (8)
Nebraska- 7 (4)
Iowa St - 6 (4)
UConn - 5 (2)
MSU - 6 (5)
Houston - 6 (4)
Illinois - 5 (3)
 
#48      
Looking at the potential 1 seeds, I think Arizona and Duke (1 and 2 in NET, both with 9 Q1 wins) are virtual locks now.

So there are two up for grabs.

One of those two will be the best B1G team and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Michigan is that team.

The final one seed will come down to UConn, Houston, ISU, and the second best B1G team.

So, our competitive set for a 1 seed looks something like this.

Team | NET| Q1 Ws | KP | SOR

Michigan | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5
Nebraska | 5 | 6 | 12 | 2
Iowa St. | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7
UConn. | 8 | 5 | 10 | 3
MSU. | 9 | 5 | 4 | 8
Houston | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11

Our resume for reference

Illinois | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9

If we win two of @Nebraska, @MSU, and Michigan, I think we'd be in the driver's seat for at least that final 1 seed given we don't drop a silly one somewhere.
despite how they are playing right now I find it hard to find losses in the big east for uconn.... because that league is not what it's been at all
 
#49      
The Athletic's latest bracket ($) has us as a 2 seed along with MSU and Nebraska. Michigan (1 seed) and Purdue (3 seed) are both in the top 10 overall on the S-curve too.

I said it before. But it's legitimately possible that the B10 ends up with all four 2-seeds if they beat up on each other in the exact right way (and get help elsewhere).

 
#50      
The Athletic's latest bracket ($) has us as a 2 seed along with MSU and Nebraska. Michigan (1 seed) and Purdue (3 seed) are both in the top 10 overall on the S-curve too.

I said it before. But it's legitimately possible that the B10 ends up with all four 2-seeds if they beat up on each other in the exact right way (and get help elsewhere).

I'm starting to have visions of 2021 with #1 Illinois and Michigan and #2 Iowa and OSU. Obviously that tournament...didn't work out
 
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