Getting an STL pod placement doesn't look too bad. There should be two STL pods (2 per site). PU is the only other top team that clearly wants STL. NE and ISU are borderline STL/OKC.
To get Chicago, I think we either need to be the top BTT seed, or the worst #3 seed from the BTT.
My reasoning -- assuming 5 top 3 seeds from the BTT(MI, MSU, IL, NE, PU):
- If the top BTT seed is a #1 seed, they and the lowest of the 3 seeds go to CHI. This maximized the distance until two of the 5 teams play.
- If the top BTT seed is a #2 seed, they go to Chi, and the bottom 3 seed gets "adjusted" to a 4 seed and also sent to Chicago. This avoids a region with both the #2 and #3 seed from the BTT.
Likely pod preferences:
UCONN -> Philly
Duke -> Greenville
Michigan -> Buffalo (much closer than STL)
Purdue -> STL, backup any of Philly, Greenville, Buffalo
Houston -> OKC, backup STL
Gonzaga -> Portland
MSU -> Buffalo, backup STL
BYU -> I can't see a reason to choose any particular one of Portland, SD, OKC.
To get Chicago, I think we either need to be the top BTT seed, or the worst #3 seed from the BTT.
My reasoning -- assuming 5 top 3 seeds from the BTT(MI, MSU, IL, NE, PU):
- If the top BTT seed is a #1 seed, they and the lowest of the 3 seeds go to CHI. This maximized the distance until two of the 5 teams play.
- If the top BTT seed is a #2 seed, they go to Chi, and the bottom 3 seed gets "adjusted" to a 4 seed and also sent to Chicago. This avoids a region with both the #2 and #3 seed from the BTT.
Likely pod preferences:
Zona -> SDIt's going to come down to who finishes ahead of us that would also want to be in that pod.
So if we go down the list:
1. Zona, UCONN, Duke, Michigan- all will have 1st choice in different pod
UCONN -> Philly
Duke -> Greenville
Michigan -> Buffalo (much closer than STL)
Nebraska -> STL, OKC are ~equidistant.2. Nebraska, Purdue, Houston, Gonzaga- Houston would take OKC. Fair question of whether Nebraska would also want OKC or want Chicago instead. Purdue would definitely want Chicago.
Purdue -> STL, backup any of Philly, Greenville, Buffalo
Houston -> OKC, backup STL
Gonzaga -> Portland
Iowa St -> STL is slightly closer than OKC. Both OK and MO moved to the SEC. Which crowd will support a big12 team better?3. Iowa State, MSU, Illinois, BYU. This is where things get interesting as theoretically Iowa State, MSU, and Illinois could all want Chicago. Iowa State could go OKC and MSU could go Philly. BYU would be out West. We would obviously want Chicago.
MSU -> Buffalo, backup STL
BYU -> I can't see a reason to choose any particular one of Portland, SD, OKC.
4-5. Vandy, UVa, Texas Tech, Florida, Kansas, Bama, Arkansas, St. John's would all want elsewhere as a 1st pick.
The Top 2 Chicago pod wanting teams will go there, so our biggest competition is Purdue, maybe Nebraska, maybe Iowa State, maybe MSU. If Houston, Nebraska, and Iowa State all get slots ahead of us, one will probably get Chicago. So to answer your question, to get the Chicago pod, we likely need to finish as a Top 4 seed ahead of Purdue and MSU or ahead of Nebraska/Iowa State and MSU.