Week of 1/26 Bracketology

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#126      
Calvin
lstewart53x3 said:
Right now, there are basically 10 teams in contention for the top 8 spots (1 and 2 seeds):

View attachment 46955

You pretty much have to assume that Arizona and Duke are a 99% lock for a 1/2 seed just based on their current Quad 1 wins.

So that leaves 8 teams for 6 spots. Each of those 8 teams have fairly similar resumes.

Gonzaga is really going to struggle to get enough Q1 wins this year. I believe they only have 3 Q1 games remaining and they’re already behind in Q1 wins compared to the other 7 teams.
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Probably in the minority here, but I'm fine with a 2 seed. I think a 1 is still possible, but a longshot given AZ/Duke and the difficulty of the remaining BIG games. The BTT will add to that.

Been very exciting to see the team improve and solidify itself as a legit NC contender, even if not a favorite. Gotta love this winning streak --so many games have been about multi-posession wins where the game wasn't in doubt in the final minute. Really fun as a fan to have that.
 
#127      
Fighter of the Nightman
Calvin said:
Probably in the minority here, but I'm fine with a 2 seed. I think a 1 is still possible, but a longshot given AZ/Duke and the difficulty of the remaining BIG games. The BTT will add to that.

Been very exciting to see the team improve and solidify itself as a legit NC contender, even if not a favorite. Gotta love this winning streak --so many games have been about multi-posession wins where the game wasn't in doubt in the final minute. Really fun as a fan to have that.
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Just to be clear, I don’t think getting a #1 vs. a #2 will materially cap this team’s ceiling … both still have to get past each other for a Final Four. What I want most of all is the Chicago Regional and St. Louis First Weekend placement that will give us a huge crowd advantage and minimal travel!
 
#128      
Illinicpa14
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Just to be clear, I don’t think getting a #1 vs. a #2 will materially cap this team’s ceiling … both still have to get past each other for a Final Four. What I want most of all is the Chicago Regional and St. Louis First Weekend placement that will give us a huge crowd advantage and minimal travel!
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This - staying ahead of Purdue and potentially an Iowa State or Kansas (not sure Ok city vs St. Louis for those) are critical to getting the St Louis first 2 rounds vs getting shipped off to Philadelphia or Tampa
 
#130      
Fly Illini Fly!
About the Gonzaga discussion, here’s the WCC standings:


Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s are only one game back of the Zags — so hopefully they’re frisky enough to give Gonzaga a loss or two.

Gonzaga plays Saint Marys at home tonight, and has games left @Saint Marys and @Santa Clara.

They also NEARLY lost to Seattle at home. Trailed the entire way, needed missed FTs to force OT.
 
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#131      
jamarvelous31
Agreed. Rooting for IU football against Miami was the lesser of two evils.

IU basketball is forever enemy #1 to me.
 
#133      
WizardBill
Irrelevant. Just win out. We get a 1. Loosiers get NOTHING! "Loosiers will get nothing and like it!" - Judge Schmails in Caddyshack.
 
#135      
fuggles
This talk of Nebraska getting a 1 seed is ridiculous. The last kenpom double digit team to get a 1 seed was Xavier (#12) in 2018. They lost in the second round. And that was the last year of the RPI. The lowest kenpom rating to get a 1 seed in the NET era was Kansas at 9. Twice I think.
 
#139      
ChiefGritty
fuggles said:
This talk of Nebraska getting a 1 seed is ridiculous. The last kenpom double digit team to get a 1 seed was Xavier (#12) in 2018. They lost in the second round. And that was the last year of the RPI. The lowest kenpom rating to get a 1 seed in the NET era was Kansas at 9. Twice I think.
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Kenpom and NCAA seedings are measuring different things, as they should.
 
#141      
lstewart53x3
HereSoIDontGetFined said:
The team has formally placed themselves in the conversation for a #1 seed.

Should be solidly in the #2 spot now.
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If the tournament were to start today, who’s the 4th 1 seed? I honestly don’t know (numbers from today’s game will be updated tomorrow, we’re now 7-3 in Q1 games, 5-3 in Q1A games):

IMG_0452.jpeg
 
#143      
Piotyr
I think ultimately if the committee makes its selection today, the 4 #1 seeds are Arizona, Michigan, Duke and UConn.
 
#144      
lstewart53x3
mysterio2525 said:
I think they would likely go Arizona, Duke, Michigan, uconn as of today
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Here’s update numbers from Torvik:

IMG_0454.jpeg


If the tournament were to start today, we just might be the 4th one seed? All alone in 4th for most Q1 wins and all alone in 3rd for most Q1A wins, while being undefeated in Q2, 3, and 4.
 
#146      
Piotyr
Looking at Torvik's bracketology, here's what the Bubble Watch looks like:

Locks (18):
ACC (2): Duke, Virginia
B10 (5): Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan State
B12 (6): Arizona, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU
BE (1): UConn
SEC (3): Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC (1): Gonzaga

Should be in (18):
A10 (1): St. Louis
ACC (5): Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Clemson, SMU
B10 (3): Iowa, Indiana, Wisconsin
B12 (1): UCF
BE (2): St. John's, Villanova
MWC (1): Utah State
SEC (5): Alabama, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Auburn, Kentucky

Work to do (19 for ~9 spots):
A10 (1): VCU
ACC (3): Miami, California, Virginia Tech
B10 (4): UCLA, Ohio State, USC, Washington
B12 (1): TCU
BE (1): Seton Hall
MWC (4): New Mexico, San Diego State, Nevada, Grand Canyon
SEC (3): Georgia, Texas, Missouri
WCC (2): St. Mary's, Santa Clara
 
#147      
lstewart53x3
mysterio2525 said:
no way we are getting a1 seed over uconn when they beat us. also what view/filter is this on the torvik data?
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It’s this link:


Yeah, right now, UConn has a better winning percentage in Q1A and Q1 with just one less win in each, so they’d likely get the nod. I’m not sure head to head makes a difference though. If we finish the season with more Q1 wins than UConn, we could get a 1 seed ahead of them.
 
#148      
mysterio2525
lstewart53x3 said:
It’s this link:


Yeah, right now, UConn has a better winning percentage in Q1A and Q1 with just one less win in each, so they’d likely get the nod. I’m not sure head to head makes a difference though. If we finish the season with more Q1 wins than UConn, we could get a 1 seed ahead of them.
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cool thanks! looks like we are at 6 right now in torviks s curve

1000017601.jpg
 
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