Week of 1/6 Bracketology

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#51      
OrangeBlue98
Obviously, a 1 seed would be great. But I don't really feel like the gap between teams is so great this year. It's going to be a lot more about the matchups than the seedings.

Here are the 2025 tournament sites. Obviously, being in the Midwest region would be ideal with the Sweet 16/Elite 8 round in Indianapolis. Looking at the first and second round sites, I would imagine the biggest preference would be Milwaukee (closest to Champaign proper with a ton of Illini fans who would happily make the short drive). Lexington would probably be 2nd choice (maybe we could exorcise a couple of demons from 1984 on that court), followed by Cleveland. But outside of Milwaukee, there's not an overly favorable location for the first round.

Honestly, living in Des Moines, I'd consider a trip to Wichita if the Illini were there. It's just that there's nothing to do in Wichita (been there for a soccer weekend before - desolate place and a brutally boring drive to get there).

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#52      
Illwinsagain
OrangeBlue98 said:
Obviously, a 1 seed would be great. But I don't really feel like the gap between teams is so great this year. It's going to be a lot more about the matchups than the seedings.

Here are the 2025 tournament sites. Obviously, being in the Midwest region would be ideal with the Sweet 16/Elite 8 round in Indianapolis. Looking at the first and second round sites, I would imagine the biggest preference would be Milwaukee (closest to Champaign proper with a ton of Illini fans who would happily make the short drive). Lexington would probably be 2nd choice (maybe we could exorcise a couple of demons from 1984 on that court), followed by Cleveland. But outside of Milwaukee, there's not an overly favorable location for the first round.

Honestly, living in Des Moines, I'd consider a trip to Wichita if the Illini were there. It's just that there's nothing to do in Wichita (been there for a soccer weekend before - desolate place and a brutally boring drive to get there).

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I prefer the 20/22 dates, just because I am tired of the 11 am CST Sunday morning 2nd round. Who'd thunk that I would be tired of 2nd round Sunday games 7 or 8 years ago? :ROFLMAO:
 
#53      
OrangeBlue98
Illwinsagain said:
I prefer the 20/22 dates, just because I am tired of the 11 am CST Sunday morning 2nd round. Who'd thunk that I would be tired of 2nd round Sunday games 7 or 8 years ago? :ROFLMAO:
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It's more because the 2nd round games are stretched over 9-10 hours like the first round games are. By the time 9:30 PM rolls around on Sunday, I'm wiped out after watching basketball all day four days in a row.

(Yes, First World Problems for sure)
 
#54      
Fighter of the Nightman
Illini2010-11 said:
The B1G has the exclusive timeslot right before the bracket reveal. It is hard to see why the conference would ever want to compete with the ACC Tournament final on Saturday night. By the time of the championship game (either Saturday or Sunday), I do not think seeding would change much at all. Much of the high seed lines are baked in before the start of the conference tourneys. I personally love having the semifinals in a prime slot on Saturday afternoons and the exclusive slot on championship Sunday.
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Yep. I haven't looked at the other years, but in 2021 the Illini/OSU BTT final was by FAR the most viewed game of the season before the NCAA Tournament. Just before the Selection Show when we were in OT, it peaked at over 6 million viewers ... which is absolutely insane for basketball.
 
#55      
Piotyr
It's going to be difficult to land a 1 seed this year for the Illini just because there are so many crazy good teams this season. Three defenses (Duke, Houston, Tennessee) and one offense (Auburn) are just on another level than anything else right now.

There are improvements Illinois can make offensively, though, and their defense has been good enough to be the tier just below the top, but even if they land at #5 overall, that top 4 has been crazy. Add in Florida and Iowa State who are also at least on the same level as Illinois, and I have the sense this is going to be a very top-heavy tournament this season.
 
#56      
Mobi
Piotyr said:
It's going to be difficult to land a 1 seed this year for the Illini just because there are so many crazy good teams this season. Three defenses (Duke, Houston, Tennessee) and one offense (Auburn) are just on another level than anything else right now.

There are improvements Illinois can make offensively, though, and their defense has been good enough to be the tier just below the top, but even if they land at #5 overall, that top 4 has been crazy. Add in Florida and Iowa State who are also at least on the same level as Illinois, and I have the sense this is going to be a very top-heavy tournament this season.
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I will be happy with 2 or 3 seeds. I don't think we have a dominant team like UConn last year anyway.
 
#57      
Oracle21
I think IL can get a #1 seed if they really run up the win totals in the Big 10. Auburn/TN/FL/KY should all end up with quite a few losses.
 
#58      
Piotyr
Mobi said:
I will be happy with 2 or 3 seeds. I don't think we have a dominant team like UConn last year anyway.
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Here's a fun fact: last year UConn ended up with an adjusted efficiency margin of 36.43, which was good enough for 3rd all time in the KenPom era (going back to 2002), behind 2021 Gonzaga (finished 31-1 losing in the national championship to Baylor) and 2015 Kentucky (finished 38-1, lost in FF to Wisconsin).

This year? Both Duke and Auburn are tied for first right now at 36.68, and Houston is not far behind at 33.20. For an Illini fan reference, the 2005 Illini ended the season at 32.68, which is still a top 20 number for all time.

There might not be one dominant team, there might be 3-5.
 
#59      
mysterio2525
Piotyr said:
Here's a fun fact: last year UConn ended up with an adjusted efficiency margin of 36.43, which was good enough for 3rd all time in the KenPom era (going back to 2002), behind 2021 Gonzaga (finished 31-1 losing in the national championship to Baylor) and 2015 Kentucky (finished 38-1, lost in FF to Wisconsin).

This year? Both Duke and Auburn are tied for first right now at 36.68, and Houston is not far behind at 33.20. For an Illini fan reference, the 2005 Illini ended the season at 32.68, which is still a top 20 number for all time.

There might not be one dominant team, there might be 3-5.
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Duke has chance to keep up the efficiency because the ACC is terrible but I don't trust their offense enough.

Houston plays the efficiency game well but they will drop off in big 12 play because honestly I don't think they are that good compared to years past

Auburn is really good but SEC is tough and should bring those numbers down and also I don't think they can sustain the 3pt shot at this level all year. They are really good team though.

I predict only one team above 30 at the end of the year
 
#60      
Old Farm Illini
Illini2010-11 said:
Obviously, all of this is premature, but if the teams above Illini win their games, the Illini would not be projected as a 1 seed in any bracket even with wins through the Michigan State game.

You would have Auburn, Duke, Alabama, and Florida (to name a few) all likely ahead of Illinois for 1 seeds. Illinois would be a solid 2 in most brackets. I also do not think Illinois should jump Tennessee (they did beat us in Champaign). Either way, a lot of basketball to play and opportunities for Illinois to get into the talks for an outside chance of a 1 seed.
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This should be viewed under a different lens than AP rankings, which you may not be doing but just pointing that out. If Illinois wins the next two on the road, you're looking at an Illinois team that is 6-3 in Quad 1 games, that would be 4-1 in road games, 2-1 in neutral games. This is totally premature but I would put them in the same fighting chance for a 1 seed as everyone else that isn't Duke or Auburn.
 
#61      
Mobi
Piotyr said:
Here's a fun fact: last year UConn ended up with an adjusted efficiency margin of 36.43, which was good enough for 3rd all time in the KenPom era (going back to 2002), behind 2021 Gonzaga (finished 31-1 losing in the national championship to Baylor) and 2015 Kentucky (finished 38-1, lost in FF to Wisconsin).

This year? Both Duke and Auburn are tied for first right now at 36.68, and Houston is not far behind at 33.20. For an Illini fan reference, the 2005 Illini ended the season at 32.68, which is still a top 20 number for all time.

There might not be one dominant team, there might be 3-5.
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I understand what you are saying but UConn last year simply was on another level. They made Dan Hurley like a magician. I guess we will find out how good Duke is soon enough.
 
#62      
Illini2010-11
Old Farm Illini said:
This should be viewed under a different lens than AP rankings, which you may not be doing but just pointing that out. If Illinois wins the next two on the road, you're looking at an Illinois team that is 6-3 in Quad 1 games, that would be 4-1 in road games, 2-1 in neutral games. This is totally premature but I would put them in the same fighting chance for a 1 seed as everyone else that isn't Duke or Auburn.
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Sure, this sets the Illini up in a very good position come March from a resume perspective. I am simply saying that if season ends next week, the Illini ceiling would likely be about a 2 seed in the brackets if other teams hold serve. The Illini would need to go on an extended run to start showing up as a 1 seed in brackets.

Good news: 2 months of basketball left to sort it out and try to get a one or two seed.

Bad news: See good news in opposite direction.
 
#63      
abchew2
Piotyr said:
It's going to be difficult to land a 1 seed this year for the Illini just because there are so many crazy good teams this season. Three defenses (Duke, Houston, Tennessee) and one offense (Auburn) are just on another level than anything else right now.

There are improvements Illinois can make offensively, though, and their defense has been good enough to be the tier just below the top, but even if they land at #5 overall, that top 4 has been crazy. Add in Florida and Iowa State who are also at least on the same level as Illinois, and I have the sense this is going to be a very top-heavy tournament this season.
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Our head to head with Duke will go a long way. A 1 seed is very much possible with a win in that one. Drop that game and I think it will be a long shot. Of course still lots of season left and plenty of things can change.
 
#64      
illinifan1987
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Yep. I haven't looked at the other years, but in 2021 the Illini/OSU BTT final was by FAR the most viewed game of the season before the NCAA Tournament. Just before the Selection Show when we were in OT, it peaked at over 6 million viewers ... which is absolutely insane for basketball.
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The Arkansas game on Turkey day was the 2nd most watched NCAAB game since 2008. Only behind Arizona on the same day last year.
 
#65      
Fighter of the Nightman
illinifan1987 said:
The Arkansas game on Turkey day was the 2nd most watched NCAAB game since 2008. Only behind Arizona on the same day last year.
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I believe that is regular season (although still incredible and why we should jump at the opportunity for that Thanksgiving spot whenever we can). For reference, the Purdue/UConn NC game last year drew just under 15 million, and the 2005 NC game drew like 24 million. 😨
 
#66      
abchew2
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I believe that is regular season (although still incredible and why we should jump at the opportunity for that Thanksgiving spot whenever we can). For reference, the Purdue/UConn NC game last year drew just under 15 million, and the 2005 NC game drew like 24 million. 😨
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I will be stunned if a championship team for Illinois ever surpasses the buzz that 05 team had. That team is synonymous with March for a lot of fans and not just Illinois basketball
 
#68      
mysterio2525
#69      
Fighter of the Nightman
RE: the SEC, yes ... they look VERY good. And they probably are. However, let's just remember that the Big Ten looked GREAT on Selection Sunday in 2021. These were our conference's NET Rankings on that day, with NCAAT teams having their seeds in parentheses:

#3 Illinois (NCAAT #1 seed)
#4 Michigan (NCAAT #1 seed)
#6 Iowa (NCAAT #2 seed)
#8 Ohio State (NCAAT #2 seed)
#22 Purdue (NCAAT #4 seed)
#27 Wisconsin (NCAAT #9 seed)
#35 Maryland (NCAAT #10 seed)
#38 Rutgers (NCAAT #10 seed)
#42 Penn State
#63 Indiana
#70 Michigan State (NCAAT #11 seed)
#77 Minnesota
#92 Northwestern
#126 Nebraska

We obviously know how that turned out, with only one team (#1 Michigan) doing anything at all.
- Play-in loss for #11 Michigan State.
- First Round losses for #2 Ohio State and #4 Purdue.
- Second Round losses for #1 Illinois, #2 Iowa, #9 Wisconsin, #10 Maryland and #10 Rutgers.
- Of FIVE top 4 seeds and 4 top 2 seeds (!!), we had one team left on the Second Weekend.

So, you kind of just never know. The SEC very well might bruise each other up enough that their teams are tired and used to playing each other and fall flat ... who knows?? That's the beauty and tragedy of March.
 
#70      
the juiceman cometh
Piotyr said:
Here's a fun fact: last year UConn ended up with an adjusted efficiency margin of 36.43, which was good enough for 3rd all time in the KenPom era (going back to 2002), behind 2021 Gonzaga (finished 31-1 losing in the national championship to Baylor) and 2015 Kentucky (finished 38-1, lost in FF to Wisconsin).

This year? Both Duke and Auburn are tied for first right now at 36.68, and Houston is not far behind at 33.20. For an Illini fan reference, the 2005 Illini ended the season at 32.68, which is still a top 20 number for all time.

There might not be one dominant team, there might be 3-5.
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I wonder how much of this is that teams have figured out the hack of scheduling a mix of legit good teams (chances to get good wins and run up SOS, which does help with most efficiency metrics) and really bad ones (chances to run up efficiency metrics with blowouts) rather than that we are truly seeing more elite quality teams.

I wouldn't be surprised if efficiency numbers at the upper end drop as conference play continues, and teams like Auburn and Duke (and us) end up with some less efficient performances (even if they're still wins) against teams in the 50-100 ranking range. See e.g. our close win against Washington that was a bit of an anchor on our efficiency ratings.
 
#71      
OrangeBlue98
Oracle21 said:
I think IL can get a #1 seed if they really run up the win totals in the Big 10. Auburn/TN/FL/KY should all end up with quite a few losses.
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To be totally fair, I'd bet that those SEC teams are probably looking at Illinois and Michigan and saying, "We're in good shape - those Big Ten teams will beat each other up all season long." I think both will be true - Both conferences will be a gauntlet all season long.
 
#72      
Illini2010-11
OrangeBlue98 said:
To be totally fair, I'd bet that those SEC teams are probably looking at Illinois and Michigan and saying, "We're in good shape - those Big Ten teams will beat each other up all season long." I think both will be true - Both conferences will be a gauntlet all season long.
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Exactly this. No slight at the Illini in the slightest, but looking at the schedule, it is highly likely that the Illini will lose at least 4 more times before the regular season is over, which would bring the Illini to minimum of 7 losses (8 if the Illini lose in BTT). That would likely translate to about a 2/3/4 seed (assuming the Illini go 12-4 the rest of regular season).
 
#74      
the juiceman cometh
Illini2010-11 said:
Exactly this. No slight at the Illini in the slightest, but looking at the schedule, it is highly likely that the Illini will lose at least 4 more times before the regular season is over, which would bring the Illini to minimum of 7 losses (8 if the Illini lose in BTT). That would likely translate to about a 2/3/4 seed (assuming the Illini go 12-4 the rest of regular season).
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We got a #1 seed in 2021 with 7 losses. UNC was a #1 last year with 7 losses. Kansas was a #1 seed in 2023 with 7 losses.

I think if we go 16-4 in conference (I'm assuming one of your 4 losses is Duke here, but if not 15-5 with a win over Duke may be an even better resume) we win the conference. Assuming we don't lay an egg in the BTT, I'd be pretty surprised if that's not good enough to lock down a 2 seed at a minimum and at least be in the conversation for a 1-seed depending on what happens in other conferences.
 
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