Week of 11/17 Games Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
#76      
Fly Illini Fly!
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
In all honesty Winthrop has zero excuse however. They were up 5 with 1:30 to go, with turnovers on their next two possessions directly leading to ARK baskets. If that player didn't throw that pass, and they take a shot at the end of the clock, that game is essentially over.
Click to expand...
Hogs would've had the ball with 5 or so seconds (assuming they got the board).

I think the overwhelming trend with these low majors is that they faulter when given the chance to win the game - mostly due to unexpectedly being in that situation in the first place, and simply brighter lights. Arkansas is clearly not a top 25 team (right now).
 
#78      
NarrowJ
Duke v Kansas is a game now, 63-59 with 6 mins left

Cam Boozer looks human (4-13 shooting)
 
#79      
AyoDos11
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
So here's what happened for anyone who didn't watch:

Winthrop had the ball at the end of the game up 1. Arkansas refused to foul and there was a 7 second shot/game clock difference.

Winthrop player throws terrible pass mid possession and Arky goes coast to coast, goes up 1.

After the arky player scored he absolutely pummeled a Winthrop player to the ground for... standing in front of him. In return a double technical was called on the Arkansas player as well as... the Winthrop player? For getting beat up? Make it make sense?
Click to expand...
It appeared to me that the Winthrop player put his arms around Pringle's head (accidentally or not, idk) then as they both fell I initially thought the Winthrop player pulled Pringle down. Of course, if you are pushed down in that position it would look like that regardless.
 
#82      
Fighter of the Nightman
Fighter of the Nightman said:
After seeing some scores and catching a few teams briefly, this would be my adjusted view on our Big Ten games, at least on paper...

Cannot envision a loss
vs. Rutgers
vs. Minnesota

Somewhat inexcusable to lose
vs. Maryland
vs. Northwestern
vs. Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)
vs. Nebraska
vs. Washington

SHOULD win but on the road
at Ohio State
at Nebraska
at Northwestern
at Maryland

Shouldn't lose these at home
vs. Oregon
vs. Indiana
vs. Wisconsin
vs. Michigan

Win if we bring our A-game, lose if we don't
at USC
at UCLA

Way tougher than we thought ... toss-up
at Iowa

Easily CAN win but definitely tough
at Purdue
at Michigan State

Teams have off nights and we shouldn't overreact too much this early (let's see how we do vs. 'Bama, for example!), but man ... competing for a Big Ten championship just seems flat-out realistic at this stage, and if you're doing that, you are putting yourself in that #1 seed conversation!
Click to expand...
Uh, if Washington loses at home to Southern, move them up a category into where I cannot envision a loss! Lol...
 
#83      
lstewart53x3
AyoDos11 said:
It appeared to me that the Winthrop player put his arms around Pringle's head (accidentally or not, idk) then as they both fell I initially thought the Winthrop player pulled Pringle down. Of course, if you are pushed down in that position it would look like that regardless.
Click to expand...
Yeah, double tech looks like the right call to me here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1990982101538078976

Looks like the Winthrop player puts his arms around the head of the Arkansas player and pulls him to the ground (tech on him), then when they’re trying to get up, the Arkansas player pushes him back onto the ground (second tech).
 
#87      
Piotyr
Duke's win put them above 30 net rating on KenPom, which is generally a good threshold for "This is a great team". Usually there's maybe 1 or 2 of them a year (Last year, there were 6(!), which is why I said going into the NCAA tournament that it would be a very top heavy tournament and I was not wrong. Three years ago, there were zero, and no team higher than a 4 seed made the F4).

Illinois currently sits at nearly 28 (which is very good!)

EDIT: Comparatively, Torvik's ratings are a percentage of a perfect team (so a 1.000 team would be the perfect robo team that would beat everyone soundly). Last year, Houston and Duke were above 98%, and typically there's at least one team above 96% every year. I suppose an exclusive "Great" team would be one that is 97% or above, effectively averaging an A+ effort across the entire season (which is very difficult). This year, so far, just Houston and Duke are above 95% (Illinois is the only other team above 94%), but Torvik's ratings in general aren't projecting any great teams to this point.
 
Last edited:
#89      
Piotyr
Washington holds on against Southern, and the B1G avoids an embarrassing loss. B1G now 68-4 on the season (assuming UCLA is able to cling to their 28 point lead with 3 minutes to play against Sacramento State).

EDIT: It's hard to tell how good that is on its face, but effectively, the B1G is 4-3 in games in which it is an underdog, and 64-1 in games in which it is favored (Maryland lost at home to Georgetown). Winning 98.5% of the games, even when favored, is very unlikely.
 
Last edited:
#90      
Fly Illini Fly!
Piotyr said:
Duke's win put them above 30 net rating on KenPom, which is generally a good threshold for "This is a great team". Usually there's maybe 1 or 2 of them a year (Last year, there were 6(!), which is why I said going into the NCAA tournament that it would be a very top heavy tournament and I was not wrong. Three years ago, there were zero, and no team higher than a 4 seed made the F4).

Illinois currently sits at nearly 28 (which is very good!)

EDIT: Comparatively, Torvik's ratings are a percentage of a perfect team (so a 1.000 team would be the perfect robo team that would beat everyone soundly). Last year, Houston and Duke were above 98%, and typically there's at least one team above 96% every year. I suppose an exclusive "Great" team would be one that is 97% or above, effectively averaging an A+ effort across the entire season (which is very difficult). This year, so far, just Houston and Duke are above 95% (Illinois is the only other team above 94%), but Torvik's ratings in general aren't projecting any great teams to this point.
Click to expand...
Duke last year had a 39.29 Kenpom NET rating, which is RIDICULOUS. It is more than 2 points higher than the previous highest ever recorded (data only shows 2002 onward).
 
#91      
lstewart53x3
Piotyr said:
Washington holds on against Southern, and the B1G avoids an embarrassing loss. B1G now 68-4 on the season (assuming UCLA is able to cling to their 28 point lead with 3 minutes to play against Sacramento State).
Click to expand...
Those ~150 KenPom teams (like Southern, Colgate, Oakland, etc) can be so dangerous. Each one of these games against high majors is their Super Bowl / NCAA tournament. They prep, watch film, play a weird defensive scheme or two, and go all out.

On the flip side, the high major looks at it like it’s just another Mississippi Valley (currently dead last, 365 in KenPom), even though there’s a giant difference between the two. And it’s easy to have a letdown in that sleepy midweek game.

That’s why I’ll never complain about a ho-hum 19 point win against Colgate.
 
#92      
Piotyr
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Duke last year had a 39.29 Kenpom NET rating, which is RIDICULOUS. It is more than 2 points higher than the previous highest ever recorded (data only shows 2002 onward).
Click to expand...
1999 Duke was 43.01(!)
1763531598786.png
 
#95      
RollChief
Piotyr said:
1999 Duke was 43.01(!)
View attachment 45076
Click to expand...
It’s crazy when you have these statistically historic teams that don’t win the tournament. I wish there was a good way to accurately measure the human element that ultimately can make a great team good and a good team great on some nights (ego, clutch, preparedness, response to pressure, etc.). Maybe one day!

Edit: for the kenpom subscribers out there, there’s a way you can look at mid season ratings from previous years. It’s not that intuitive, but if you go to FanMatch, go one day in the past and a option will pop up at the top that says (ratings archive). If you click it, a date will pop up in the url, and then you can change that date to go to specific days in history (for example, you can go back and look at teams ranked above 30 last year on this day, the year before, in February, etc)
 
Last edited:
#98      
RollChief
BrownTown said:
Was 05 Illinois a 30+? I'm not a huge metrics guy, though I will say I like them when they point to Illinois being better than their ranking.
Click to expand...
Yes, here is the top 10 in '05. If this helps understand it for anyone, +32.68 net rating means the spread of offensive efficiency (points over 100 possessions, 122.3 for '05 Illini) to defensive efficiency (points allowed over 100 possessions, 89.6 for the '05 Illini).

This year, the worst team in D-1 (Mississippi Valley) has a -31.58 NetRTG.

Edit: I posted this too fast and decided to add some context.

1763564172026.png
 
Last edited:
#99      
BrownTown
I appreciate you posting this.

I'm also 😡 for the rest of the morning thinking about the fouls on James Augustine.

We need Brad to get us back and cleanse our palate. It shouldn't hurt this much 20 years later.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back