I hope the UC is full of orange. David will be playing against the best team and quickness to this point in his career. Go Illini. Beat them we will be in the top five.
Week of 11/17 Games Thread
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If Mirk shows out tonight, my dream match-up would be vs Cam Boozer; would be very entertaining as well as instructive. Plus, would most likely mean that we made the elite eight.
I think this is a great observation, and it actually sent me down a pretty deep rabbit hole about defining characteristics of what makes a team great statistically. This is KenPom's bread and butter, extrapolating netRTG to predict the greatness of teams. The two questions I aim to answer are "Can this Illinois basketball team be great?" and "What defines greatness?" I'll answer the latter, and use historical data from the answer to predict the former.
The way to predict greatness is pretty straightforward. If you've won a Championship, you are a great team; there's no way around it. Because of this tournament format, even if you get a favorable quadrant, there is no way to luck your way to a National Championship victory. Teams have different ways of being great to win Championships, but all Championship teams are great. Not all great teams win Championships, so we'll remove them from this analysis.
This leads to the analysis: how does this Illini team stack up against other great teams on a historical basis? To extrapolate on @Piotyr 's observation, 30+ is a great (and common) NetRTG at the finale of the season, but it is a nearly unheard of NetRTG as of 11/19. This Duke team being ranked 30 at this point is somewhat historical, and it's honestly historical the number of teams that are on their heels, including us. The list below is all champions (with Illinois 2026 there for comparison), ranked by netRTG as of the end of the year, as of November 19th in the season, the respective KP ratings, along with the total changes for both. One thing I noted: Number 1 teams as of 11/19 rarely win the championship, but number 1 teams as of the end of the year usually win championships.
What I've found is probably obvious: great teams get better throughout the season, in every single season that I could access day-by-day data from KenPom (meaning going back to 2012). On average, a championship team will improve efficiency by 6.86(!!) from 11/19 to the end of the season. To compare Illinois this year to the champions of the past, Illinois would be ranked 2nd amongst all champion teams dating back to 2012 on 11/19.
The most improved champion since 2012 was actually Florida 2025, who improved by 15.49 points from 11/19 to the end of the season and truthfully is a statistical anomaly. Anyone who was calling their national championship in November is most likely clairvoyant.
This brings me to my next point: when do champions get better, and by how much?
The largest jumps usually happen from November to December, and then from March to April. The only champion team that got worse from March to April since 2012 is Virginia in 2019, but every single one got better from November to April. My second table below shows Champion teams as they progress through the year from November to the Final (April). Almost all teams have a lull month, except for Florida last year. As you can imagine, there are also numerous cases of teams that are good in November and decrease significantly by the end of the year.
The line graph may be as scattered and as pointless as this analysis overall, but I think if I'm making 2 points here, it's that Illinois this year is statistically positioned to be great, and if you're good at back testing, there may be a way to develop a good futures betting strategy here (which is why I'm leaving this in the Games Thread).
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
Impressive work! Thanks!
That's the kind of content that makes my IllinoisLoyalty subscription worth every penny.
Anyone interested in the EIU game tonight, 7pm https://www.weiu.net/hitmix/streaming.php
One of my customers today had every room in the house full of UK gear. Let's just say he didn't like when I asked what he thought about this game
He ended up spending $25k, so it's all good!
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
Watching AZ and UConn. Koa Peat is the real deal. He's head and shoulders above Boozer IMO - a man among boys
UConn vs Zona is bringing basketball back 40 years
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
My dislike for KU ended when Self brought them to play the scrimmage/exhibition games. NOTHING will ever erase the most embarrassing loss in school history the Pukies gave us (on National TV, btw).
I’m sure it’s been said, his dad grew up in Champaign.
Special night for me. As a student at the University of Arizona, I witnessed many basketball games, not too many victories, in Bear Down Gym back in the 60s. Never did I imagine that the Cats would ever be able to compete annually with my beloved Illini. But things changed.
On my first birthday, my grandfather gave me a hoop and a small basketball. With every basket I made, a bell would ring. That set the tone for a passion for every sport played with a ball. In the mid-50s, we finally got a TV and could listen to the Illini on WCIA broadcasts....with Govoner Vaughn and Manny Jackson and sponsered by Chesty Potato Chips. Hence I became an Illini hoops fan which is a passion I maintain 70 years later.
I do not enjoy the few occasions when the Illini and the Cats meet on the hardwood. When that happens, rest assured I pull for an Illini victory as hard as any other passionate fan or alum.
But, tonight, I will have the pleasure of pulling for the Cats to Bear Down in Storrs and give those upstart Huskies a beating and then feed my passion for an Illini victory over the Crimson Tide. Both games have national implications. Feeding my hoops Jones does not get much better than tonight.
On my first birthday, my grandfather gave me a hoop and a small basketball. With every basket I made, a bell would ring. That set the tone for a passion for every sport played with a ball. In the mid-50s, we finally got a TV and could listen to the Illini on WCIA broadcasts....with Govoner Vaughn and Manny Jackson and sponsered by Chesty Potato Chips. Hence I became an Illini hoops fan which is a passion I maintain 70 years later.
I do not enjoy the few occasions when the Illini and the Cats meet on the hardwood. When that happens, rest assured I pull for an Illini victory as hard as any other passionate fan or alum.
But, tonight, I will have the pleasure of pulling for the Cats to Bear Down in Storrs and give those upstart Huskies a beating and then feed my passion for an Illini victory over the Crimson Tide. Both games have national implications. Feeding my hoops Jones does not get much better than tonight.
In Storrs....glad CBU has embraced scheduling early non-con games against top 15 programs home and home. Steel sharpens steel!!! You don't learn much playing the EIU Panthers. Not only good for your team, but good for college hoops. Lots of eyes.
Maryland losing to Mt. St. Mary's by 6 with 7 minutes left.
What you failed to mention is that St. Mary's is a mountain of a team this year!!! Literally....Mt. St. Mary's. Far more lethal than St. Mary's College for Women or St. Mary of the Woods...both schools in Indiana.
If Arizona wins they should 100% be #1.
Not sure they could beat our Illini more than 3 or 4 of 10 on a neutral floor.
Maryland are the-way-we-were-last-season bad on defense.
Just for the record, the promising thing I see about our Illini team this season is the will and confidence we have seen from the frosh. More importantly, the same is true in spades from our older guys.
TSJr had the will and confidence in his final season, as did Domask and others. But it permeates through the entire team this year more than any other since '05. That is why I am a bit more confident in an Illini victory tonight. Though I may be wrong in the end, basketballs do not always bounce as expected or go through the net with predictable regularity, but there is little this team is lacking in their bag of skills. I feel an Illini victory tonight!!!
TSJr had the will and confidence in his final season, as did Domask and others. But it permeates through the entire team this year more than any other since '05. That is why I am a bit more confident in an Illini victory tonight. Though I may be wrong in the end, basketballs do not always bounce as expected or go through the net with predictable regularity, but there is little this team is lacking in their bag of skills. I feel an Illini victory tonight!!!
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