Week of 2/12 Games Thread

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#226      

OrangeKrush1981

OrangeKrush1981
OrangeKrush1981
HailtotheChief said:
Don't ya think coaches having the ability to challenge a time or two would go a long way correct the human error? It works in other sports and leagues and could here. It is foolish to let players work so hard to not take some simple steps to at least give the fair opportunity to correct often times obvious mistakes like in the Purdue game with 3 1/2 minutes left and the Gophers down 4 and the refs took away an opportunity that could have easily been corrected with a coaches challenge. It is foolish when often times one screw up can and does have a major impact on opportunities nearly every game. Challenges would level things and take away some of the home court bias whether intended or not.
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I think the actual problem with BIG TEN officiating is largely a consequence of the unthought-through wishes of the head coaches of the Big Ten conference. (Note, I have been on a HS bench coaching for quite a while now, not running the hardwood in stripes.)

Don't misunderstand: the officials are NOT as good as I ever think they should be (neither was I any good when I officiated at the lowest of low levels: it is very, very HARD!).

But I think (this is called an "opinion" and so you are completely free to disagree) that the reason Big Ten officiating is different than it is in other conferences is because our league's head coaches, collectively but uncoordinatedly, demand this stuff. Let me know if you want to know what I mean by "stuff" but I think many here know right now so I won't drone on more than I already am. Sorry about the droning.

There is no way under the sun that a human being lacking instantaneous information from multiple high-resolution, high-speed cameras can call this game as it has evolved over the past several decades. It used to be easy ... the way the game was called when I was in HS was not the way I wanted it called, mind you, but at least it was easier to judge than now. Which meant that there were of course officiating mistakes. But the guys in stripes were NOT over and over in the near-impossible situation that they are now. (Yeah, they still suck, I get it!)

I'm telling you, Big Ten coaches are the guys driving this: charge/block is more than 90% of the time a block (as I have been taught in summer camps where refs train with coaches and their teams), goal-tending is missed quite frequently, moving picks are rarely called (and mostly it is the dribbler's fault but there is not a rule that allows penalizing that person instead of the pick-setter), defensive grabs and hacks are described by the Robbie Hummels of the world as "hardly any contact" and so offensive fouls (push-offs, and almost wrestling like hand-fights) are justified. I have no idea how an official can mediate this, but I do think the league, it's ADs and head coaches COULD ameliorate the issue if they came to grips with it.

Not likely, any time soon. (I doubt this will ruffle anyone's feathers, and I am of course certain that my opinion will be thoughtfully perused. :) )
 
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#227      

JSpence

J
Evansville, IN
JSpence
NarrowJ said:
You beat me to this. I think we are like bottom 10 percentile in luck ranking, which just means we're far better than our current W-L record indicates.
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I'm open to questions if you wish. So you know, KenPom doesn't say "far better" in that link, nor should he. While the quantitative luck number can provide some insight on the extent of expected record, where we fall in the list is far less informative.

The way you put that is a bit funny, too. Of course, raw records mean nothing, so I assume you mean that our luck rating indicates that we should have more wins. While that isn't necessarily true (we could be quite unlucky but still have a record closest to our expected record), it is in our case - the KenPom system expects us to be at 19-5 right now, not 18-6. At 20-4, we would be flipping the script as both luckier than expected and luckier than most.

Right now, we are the 10th unluckiest team in the B10 (looking at all games). With one more loss, we would have been the unluckiest. With one more win, there would be seven B10 teams below us by a relatively wide margin and Wisconsin as the next luckiest team.

The numbers are not saying and cannot say that we should have a far better record. Having a slightly better record would put us in line with expectations. And, to repeat, we are 3-4 in 'close' games. That all lines up. Playing woulda-coulda-shoulda with only the losses gives us a poor perspective.
 
#228      

NarrowJ

NarrowJ
NarrowJ
EyeoftheIllini said:
I could be way off base, but using that number to say a team is lucky or unlucky in the “traditional” sense is probably incorrect Using a different word for that column/number would probably be better.
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Pomeroy called it "luck", but there's surely some more forward-thinking kind of term that we can use. Is it "unlucky" to lose a bunch of close games, or conversely "lucky" to win a bunch of them? No, there's probably something else going on there. The term "luck" implies that there are things entirely out of your control that are dictating your results, and that doesn't feel like what it's measuring. The statistic doesn't measure if DJ Cartensten misses a foul on Edey down 2 with 0:02 remaining, it just measures their actual record vs. their expected record in his model.
 
#229      

JSpence

J
Evansville, IN
JSpence
1m4tr said:
By all metrics we are one of the unluckiest teams in P5.
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Could you list or link three for me? I genuinely don't know what's out there, but would like to see what folks are doing.

I assume you're looking primarily at KenPom. There, we have the fifth unluckiest team in the Big Ten. That's not very compelling to me. I'm curious, though - if we're owed a bunch of wins, how many is Maryland owed?
 
#230      

illinifan1987

illinifan1987
illinifan1987
NarrowJ said:
Pomeroy called it "luck", but there's surely some more forward-thinking kind of term that we can use. Is it "unlucky" to lose a bunch of close games, or conversely "lucky" to win a bunch of them? No, there's probably something else going on there. The term "luck" implies that there are things entirely out of your control that are dictating your results, and that doesn't feel like what it's measuring. The statistic doesn't measure if DJ Cartensten misses a foul on Edey down 2 with 0:02 remaining, it just measures their actual record vs. their expected record in his model.
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leonardo dicaprio bravo GIF
 
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#232      

pruman91

pruman91
Paducah, Ky
pruman91
nebby up on psu 28-22 at the half...........lotsa of action , so little scoring..........11 am bug biting snooze on shooting by both teams....

nebby has had our affliction regarding layups.......I counted 6 points lost by missed layups , some uncontested misses......

I kinda like the announcer Nick Bahe......he gives pretty good color analyze without talking too much...........he really really does....
 
#233      

abchew2

A
abchew2
Houston is not the best shooting team but they sure make every possession such a grind.
 
#234      

Bryce Hopkins

Bryce Hopkins
Bryce Hopkins
Playing Houston in March scares me. They have the inside firepower with rebounding and scoring to expose us and flat out just look tougher than us. Hope Brad is showing our team how hard they play.

We could really use some motivation on the defensive end. A lot of things would have to go right for us to knock them off. And knowing the selection committee’s history, you know they will want to pair us up with them in some way….
 
#238      

OrangeBlue98

OrangeBlue98
Des Moines, IA
OrangeBlue98
Bryce Hopkins said:
Playing Houston in March scares me. They have the inside firepower with rebounding and scoring to expose us and flat out just look tougher than us. Hope Brad is showing our team how hard they play.

We could really use some motivation on the defensive end. A lot of things would have to go right for us to knock them off. And knowing the selection committee’s history, you know they will want to pair us up with them in some way….
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Houston and UConn are the only two teams that make me really wince in terms of matchups. Everything that gives us trouble are things Houston is really, really good at doing. Other than those two and maybe Purdue, I just don't look at any other team and get really nervous about matching up with them.
 
#243      

Illini-Rule

I
Illini-Rule
I know we should be rooting for Iowa against Wisconsin, because it's better for us if Wisconsin gets beat. But I really can't bring myself to root for the clowns from Iowa.
 
#245      

azillini1

A
Scottsdale
azillini1
I really like the quickness of Iowa's big Owen Freeman who has won BIG freshman of the week 8 times. Wish we could have signed him. He is good now and will only get better.
 
#250      

tcb13

T
tcb13
Hard to root for either, neither seems to want it.

Wisconsin will be a tough matchup for us, I'm afraid/
 
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