So let’s say UConn loses TWO more games. One in the Big East Tourney and one between Nova/St John’s. They’re definitely off the 1 line, are they off the 2 line as well?
Week of 2/16 Bracketology
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Sounds about right.
#2 seed, East Region in CBS bracket show just now.
if we can't get a 1 seed, please give us Iowa State as the 1 seed on our bracket!!! they are good but we would beat them
I don’t mind seeing Duke.. I think if the bracket were to stand as is we’d be feeling pretty pretty good.
Let’s avoid Florida, Arizona & Houston.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Call me a homer, but frankly if we can't get to Chicago I'm not that interested either way.
Zorak
- Naperville
We need a miracle to pry that spot away from Michigan now
I'm not impressed with Iowa State's resume at all. That !!!-whooping of Purdue is carrying a lot of weight. Their NCSOS is 265th. Until last week when they beat Kansas and Houston (at home) they had 3 wins over KP top 25 teams: Purdue, St. Johns by 1, and Iowa by 4 (at home).
I understand the wins over Kansas and Houston are probably why they're the last 1-seed but their best B12 win before that was over Baylor (47 on KP). And now they get to face Texas Tech without Toppin and BYU without Saunders.
agreed, I think mirk would make boozer earn his paycheck. the rest of the Duke cast doesn't scare me..... they aren't last year duke
Honest question not meant directly for you - why is everyone so afraid of Houston? Is it PTSD? Here are their best wins:
Arkansas (#17 KP) on a neutral floor
Texas Tech (#18 KP) at home by 4 (same as Illinois)
BYU (#22 KP) on the road
Auburn (#32 KP) on a neutral floor
They play Kansas and Arizona their next two - the top B12 teams are finally playing each other at the end of the season so we'll see how things shake out but as of right now, I'd much rather face Houston than Duke.
Duke has wins over KP #6, #10, #14, #15 x2, and #17. So they have 6 wins as good or better than Houston's best win. And they also have wins over #28, #34, and #35.
It’s tough to beat Houston. Their strength is defense & rebounding, is probably a little better than us. They have 2 small quick guards that can get into the lane. I just think there’s other teams we could have advantages more than them.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
We're gonna know quite a bit more about both of them in the next 12 hours.
Having said that, I think it's a little easier to see young, inexperienced, star-driven Duke struggling with our unique style than wise, old, comfortable in a low-possession game Houston.
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lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Okay so our best shot at a one seed:
- We win out
- Iowa St, UConn, and Houston each absorb more losses.
Iowa St has:
@ (22) BYU (today)
vs. (18) Texas Tech
@ (3) Arizona
BYU is without Richie Saunders and Texas Tech is without Toppin.
UConn has:
@ (27) Villanova (today)
vs. (21) St John’s
Houston has:
vs. (3) Arizona (today)
@ (14) Kansas
Kansas makes me nervous. Don’t know how we would match up with an athletic big like Bidiunga. Small quick guards give us trouble and they’ve got a great one in Council. Think Tre is a tough matchup for Andre because he’s more physical and a better shooter, if maybe 80% of the athlete. And then there’s the wildcard of Peterson who would easily be the best player we played all year if he plays.
Don't agree with ISU. Not sure how they got the nod over Houston. Gotta think there isn't much separation between 4 - 7.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
FWIW, this is how I would guess each of the top 16 seeds here would be sorted by their preferred First Weekend locations and preferred Second Weekend (i.e., Regional) locations. As a reminder, this is a subjective guess and it does NOT always correlate strictly to geographical distance (as evidenced by the earlier report that Michigan indicated it preferred Philadelphia over Buffalo for the First Weekend, even though Buffalo is closer).
It's my total guess work, of course, and it doesn't take into account rules regarding shifting around teams from the same conference ... but it gives a general idea of how competitive certain locations will be and the apparent pecking order for getting those locations as of today.
FIRST WEEKEND SITES
Oklahoma City, OK
#6 (2) Houston
#10 (3) Kansas (They're about equidistant from Lawrence, but there are way more Southern KS KU fans closer to OKC than Missouri KU fans closer to STL)
#11 (3) Nebraska
#13 (4) Texas Tech
Buffalo, NY
#5 (2) UConn
#14 (4) Michigan State
Greenville, SC
#2 (1) Duke
#15 (4) Vanderbilt
Portland, OR
#12 (3) Gonzaga
St. Louis, MO
#4 (1) Iowa State
#7 (2) Illinois
#8 (2) Purdue
Philadelphia, PA
#1 (1) Michigan - confirmed
#16 (4) Virginia
Tampa, FL
#9 (3) Florida
San Diego, CA
#3 (1) Arizona
SECOND WEEKEND SITES
Houston, TX
#6 (2) Houston
#13 (4) Texas Tech
San Jose, CA
#3 (1) Arizona
#12 (3) Gonzaga
Chicago, IL
#1 (1) Michigan
#4 (1) Iowa State
#7 (2) Illinois
#8 (2) Purdue
#10 (3) Kansas
#11 (3) Nebraska
#14 (4) Michigan State
#15 (4) Vanderbilt
Washington, DC
#2 (1) Duke
#5 (2) UConn
#9 (3) Florida
#16 (4) Virginia
Conclusions & Notes
- Once again, I want to reiterate this is NOT considering many different important factors. One obvious example would be Illinois losing Chicago to a school significantly below us on the S-Curve simply because we need to be separated from Michigan as the #2 Big Ten team. Another is a scenario where a team lower on the S-Curve doesn't get its obvious first choice because a team above them gets bumped to its second choice. For example, let's say #1 seed Iowa State strongly prefers Chicago, but there is already a #1 seed there in Michigan. ISU then gets bumped to its second choice of Houston, TX, which bumps a #2 seed Houston out of its home city because it can't be in the same region as Iowa State, even though Houston is by far the highest seed that would want Houston, TX as its first choice.
- With all that said, it really does suck how many very good teams there are this year that would also want our dream path of St. Louis/Chicago. It seems like Chicago is a pipe dream at this point (though I would love to see someone come up with our whacky "path to Chicago" scenarios, especially ones that somehow don't count on Michigan tanking). However, it seems like we definitely control our own destiny with St. Louis, and the most important factor here will be to root for our fellow #2 seed Purdue to lose. It would REALLY sting if a Purdue team that we beat at their place sneaks past us, and we are denied both Chicago and St. Louis.
- Building on that last point, I do think getting St. Louis is the ultimate goal right now. We know those games will be virtual home games regardless of what other teams are at that location, and I am not worried about getting a good Illini contingent for the Second Weekend should we find ourselves in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight. It's the First Weekend where proximity really is necessary to get a big crowd, but I think we would travel super well no matter where if we get out of the Second Round successfully. After all, we had a very good showing in Boston in 2024. Then, of course, we all know Indy would be painted orange if we got to the Final Four.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I'll admit that part of this is based off of my selfish desire to attend (and seeing the beautiful site of the UC painted orange for an NCAA Tournament game with millions of viewers...), but I would be tempted to take a #3 seed in Chicago vs. a #1 seed in a far-off location, especially if we end up with a team like Kansas or Florida in our bracket. A couple of weeks ago, I thought there was more of a drop-off from the #1 seeds to the #2/3 seeds ... now I don't feel that way at all. Any #1 seed is still going to have to get past teams like Houston, Florida, Kansas and of course our Illini to get to the Final Four. There are a LOT of good teams this year, and playing close to home might be worth a seed line.
Run the table and win the BTT and we will be a 1.
You’re correct. The committee head said it was UConn last 1 seed on Wednesday and then they lost to creighton. Iowa states best wins are better than Houston’s. Was how they separated 4-6. I think in their eyes we are a little below those 3…. For now.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
What I remain unclear on is how realistic that is.
Is there really a rule that would forbid us from being the 2 to Michigan's 1, but we could be the 3? What on earth sense does that make?
Only happens if Illinois is the 5th B1G team, which just isn't going to happen at this point.
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