Goodness gracious, what are we saying lol.
Week of 2/16 Bracketology
- Status
I'm happy if either lose. I just see a possibility for it to be a win in either outcome.
Of course we all want Michigan to lose and for Illinois to win out. I'm also part of the (minority I guess) that could care less about a regular season title if it means we have a better shot at winning it all.
It would seem the coaching staff shares that opinion to some extent because they aren't trying to rush Andrej back.
I'm sure I'm in a position to make this argument. I'm just a fan observing Wisconsin and their lack of tournament success under Gard.
I agree with this. A Purdue win is good for our title hopes. A Michigan win is good for NCAA seeding.
I'm rooting for Michigan to lose and seeding to take care of itself later. I really want that Michigan game in Champaign to be a de facto championship clincher for us.
It sure is it just hasn't happened with Wisconsin.
Metrics bracket update!
Auto bids (highest NET as of this morning):
B1G - Michigan (1)
ACC - Duke (2)
B12 - Arizona (3)
WCC - Gonzaga (6)
SEC - Florida (9)
BE - UConn (10)
A10 - Saint Louis (17)
MW - Utah State (23)
MAC - Miami-OH (51)
American - Tulsa (53)
MVC - Belmont (55)
SLnd - McNeese (56)
Ivy - Yale (65)
CUSA - Liberty (74)
BSth - High Point (75)
WAC - Utah Valley (88)
CAA - UNCW (96)
BW - Hawaii (98)
Summit - St. Thomas (110)
SoCon - ETSU (129)
BSky - Portland St. (130)
SB - Troy (132)
ASun - Austin Peay (134)
Horz - Wright St. (139)
Pat - Navy (150)
MAAC - Marist (170)
OVC - UT Martin (179)
NEC - LIU (195)
AEast - Vermont (215)
MEAC - Howard (230)
SWAC - Bethune-Cookman (251)
At-large field (top 37 resume average): Houston, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, St. John's, Tennessee, Villanova, BYU, Louisville, North Carolina, Kentucky, Clemson, Wisconsin, Miami FL, Saint Mary's, Iowa, USC, UCF, NC State, Auburn, Indiana, SMU, UCLA, Santa Clara, Georgia, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Ohio State
Just missed: San Diego State, New Mexico, TCU, Seton Hall, VCU, California, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, SFA, Oklahoma State
Seeding (based on efficiency average, auto bids in bold, change from last week in parenthesis):
1 (1). Michigan (+0)
1 (1). Arizona (+0)
3 (1). Duke (+1)
4 (1). Houston (-1)
5 (2). Illinois (+0)
6 (2). Florida (+0)
7 (2). Purdue (+2)
8 (2). Iowa State (-1)
9 (3). UConn (-1)
10 (3). Gonzaga (+0)
11 (3). Nebraska (+2)
12 (3). Vanderbilt (+2)
13 (4). Louisville (+2)
14 (4). Kansas (-3)
15 (4). Texas Tech (+4)
16 (4). Michigan State (-4)
17 (5). Arkansas (+1)
18 (5). Tennessee (-1)
19 (5). Virginia (-3)
20 (5). Alabama (+2)
21 (6). Saint Louis (+0)
22 (6). St. John's (+2)
23 (6). BYU (-0)
24 (6). Utah State (+2)
25 (7). North Carolina (+3)
26 (7). Iowa (-6)
27 (7). Villanova (+6)
28 (7). Saint Mary's (+2)
29 (8). Wisconsin (+6)
30 (8). NC State (-3)
31 (8). Clemson (-6)
32 (8). Indiana (-3)
33 (9). Kentucky (-1)
34 (9). Auburn (-3)
35 (9). Texas (+4)
36 (9). Texas A&M (-2)
37 (10). SMU (-1)
38 (10). Miami FL (+3)
39 (10). Ohio State (+3)
40 (10). Santa Clara (-2)
41 (11). UCLA (-1)
42 (11*). Georgia (-5)
43 (11*). USC (+1)
44 (11*). UCF (-1)
45 (11*). Missouri (+1)
46 (11). Tulsa (-1)
47 (12). Belmont (+0)
48 (12). McNeese (+1)
49 (12). Miami OH (-1)
50 (12). Yale (+0)
51 (13). Liberty (+1)
52 (13). High Point (+1)
53 (13). Utah Valley (-2)
54 (13). UNCW (+1)
55 (14). Hawaii (-1)
56 (14). St. Thomas (+0)
57 (14). ETSU (+1)
58 (14). Portland St. (+1)
59 (15). Troy (-2)
60 (15). Austin Peay (+1)
61 (15). Wright St. (-1)
62 (15). Navy (+1)
63 (16). Marist (-1)
64 (16). UT Martin (+0)
65 (16*). LIU (+0)
66 (16*). Vermont (+0)
67 (16*). Howard (+1)
68 (16*). Bethune-Cookman (-1)
Last 4 out: San Diego State, New Mexico, Baylor, Washington
Next 4 out: TCU, VCU, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
Notes:
- Teams are all the same as last time. The bubble is weak, and Missouri's efficiency metrics aren't great after their loss to Texas, but their resume is good enough.
- Illinois has a very solid resume AND efficiency. Pay no heed to the AP poll.
- Houston is very close to overtaking Arizona in the Big 12.
- UConn isn't doing anything especially wrong, but the Big East is very weak, so their resume is pulling a Gonzaga the further along the season goes.
Auto bids (highest NET as of this morning):
B1G - Michigan (1)
ACC - Duke (2)
B12 - Arizona (3)
WCC - Gonzaga (6)
SEC - Florida (9)
BE - UConn (10)
A10 - Saint Louis (17)
MW - Utah State (23)
MAC - Miami-OH (51)
American - Tulsa (53)
MVC - Belmont (55)
SLnd - McNeese (56)
Ivy - Yale (65)
CUSA - Liberty (74)
BSth - High Point (75)
WAC - Utah Valley (88)
CAA - UNCW (96)
BW - Hawaii (98)
Summit - St. Thomas (110)
SoCon - ETSU (129)
BSky - Portland St. (130)
SB - Troy (132)
ASun - Austin Peay (134)
Horz - Wright St. (139)
Pat - Navy (150)
MAAC - Marist (170)
OVC - UT Martin (179)
NEC - LIU (195)
AEast - Vermont (215)
MEAC - Howard (230)
SWAC - Bethune-Cookman (251)
At-large field (top 37 resume average): Houston, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, St. John's, Tennessee, Villanova, BYU, Louisville, North Carolina, Kentucky, Clemson, Wisconsin, Miami FL, Saint Mary's, Iowa, USC, UCF, NC State, Auburn, Indiana, SMU, UCLA, Santa Clara, Georgia, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Ohio State
Just missed: San Diego State, New Mexico, TCU, Seton Hall, VCU, California, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, SFA, Oklahoma State
Seeding (based on efficiency average, auto bids in bold, change from last week in parenthesis):
1 (1). Michigan (+0)
1 (1). Arizona (+0)
3 (1). Duke (+1)
4 (1). Houston (-1)
5 (2). Illinois (+0)
6 (2). Florida (+0)
7 (2). Purdue (+2)
8 (2). Iowa State (-1)
9 (3). UConn (-1)
10 (3). Gonzaga (+0)
11 (3). Nebraska (+2)
12 (3). Vanderbilt (+2)
13 (4). Louisville (+2)
14 (4). Kansas (-3)
15 (4). Texas Tech (+4)
16 (4). Michigan State (-4)
17 (5). Arkansas (+1)
18 (5). Tennessee (-1)
19 (5). Virginia (-3)
20 (5). Alabama (+2)
21 (6). Saint Louis (+0)
22 (6). St. John's (+2)
23 (6). BYU (-0)
24 (6). Utah State (+2)
25 (7). North Carolina (+3)
26 (7). Iowa (-6)
27 (7). Villanova (+6)
28 (7). Saint Mary's (+2)
29 (8). Wisconsin (+6)
30 (8). NC State (-3)
31 (8). Clemson (-6)
32 (8). Indiana (-3)
33 (9). Kentucky (-1)
34 (9). Auburn (-3)
35 (9). Texas (+4)
36 (9). Texas A&M (-2)
37 (10). SMU (-1)
38 (10). Miami FL (+3)
39 (10). Ohio State (+3)
40 (10). Santa Clara (-2)
41 (11). UCLA (-1)
42 (11*). Georgia (-5)
43 (11*). USC (+1)
44 (11*). UCF (-1)
45 (11*). Missouri (+1)
46 (11). Tulsa (-1)
47 (12). Belmont (+0)
48 (12). McNeese (+1)
49 (12). Miami OH (-1)
50 (12). Yale (+0)
51 (13). Liberty (+1)
52 (13). High Point (+1)
53 (13). Utah Valley (-2)
54 (13). UNCW (+1)
55 (14). Hawaii (-1)
56 (14). St. Thomas (+0)
57 (14). ETSU (+1)
58 (14). Portland St. (+1)
59 (15). Troy (-2)
60 (15). Austin Peay (+1)
61 (15). Wright St. (-1)
62 (15). Navy (+1)
63 (16). Marist (-1)
64 (16). UT Martin (+0)
65 (16*). LIU (+0)
66 (16*). Vermont (+0)
67 (16*). Howard (+1)
68 (16*). Bethune-Cookman (-1)
Last 4 out: San Diego State, New Mexico, Baylor, Washington
Next 4 out: TCU, VCU, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
Notes:
- Teams are all the same as last time. The bubble is weak, and Missouri's efficiency metrics aren't great after their loss to Texas, but their resume is good enough.
- Illinois has a very solid resume AND efficiency. Pay no heed to the AP poll.
- Houston is very close to overtaking Arizona in the Big 12.
- UConn isn't doing anything especially wrong, but the Big East is very weak, so their resume is pulling a Gonzaga the further along the season goes.
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
Do you have a bracket in the matrix? Seems like you should!
If we and Purdue win out, we are a 1 seed in the B1G tourney and probably should displace Michigan as a 1 seed in the NCAAs. Not sure the committee will have paid enough attention, but since the UConn game, we have lost 3 games by 1 possession but the two OT losses came when we were down a starter or 2. If they take that into account and treat us accordingly, we would have a claim to a 1 seed depending on the B!G tourney results.
If both Purdue and the Illini win out, that gives us a tie at the top at 17-3, assuming MI wins their other B1G games, and Nebraska would also be at 17-3 if they win out as well (they probably have one of the easier schedules). MI also has to play Duke. Under this scenario, with a loss to Duke, they would be 27-4 going into the B1G tourney, we would be 26-5 with a head-to-head over MI and Purdue.
So still think we have a shot at a 1, but we have to take care of business.
In a basketball season, most teams discover that nothing ever happens according to plan. Time for that to break our way.
If both Purdue and the Illini win out, that gives us a tie at the top at 17-3, assuming MI wins their other B1G games, and Nebraska would also be at 17-3 if they win out as well (they probably have one of the easier schedules). MI also has to play Duke. Under this scenario, with a loss to Duke, they would be 27-4 going into the B1G tourney, we would be 26-5 with a head-to-head over MI and Purdue.
So still think we have a shot at a 1, but we have to take care of business.
In a basketball season, most teams discover that nothing ever happens according to plan. Time for that to break our way.
I agree with you here. Sweeping the road trip, beating MI, then winning out is extremely unlikely. Having Purdue take a couple of L's, ensuring we're in St. Louis on the first weekend is much more important.
Maybe I’m wrong, just my opinion. I think it’s absolutely positively insane if you are rooting for Michigan tomorrow.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
This x1000 - St. Louis and no Florida as the 3 seed
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Can we also just take a minute this is the 7th year in a row (counting Covid) that at this point in the year the entire discussion is about seeding and not whether we make the tournament.
The expectations are different but man we had a decade of dark ages.
The expectations are different but man we had a decade of dark ages.
Seems like so many variables at play that the odds of Purdue beating Michigan becoming key in being in St Louis aren’t that high. I might be with you if that were clear. But even then I’m not sure St Louis for the first weekend is as critical as draw. Given all that I’d rather cheer for winning the B1G and Michigan losing clearly helps there.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Seems like the time of year when you can start to get a feel for where a certain game would "be" in our NCAA Tournament path based on the caliber of opponent. So, that gave me the idea to see how we have done vs. a typical First Round, Second Round, Sweet Sixteen, etc. opponent if we were to get a #1, #2 or #3 seed. In case anyone needs a reminder, this would be the expected path to the Final Four for a top 3 seed, barring very significant upsets.
#1 Seed: vs. #16 --> vs. #8/9 --> vs. #4/5 --> vs. #2/3
#2 Seed: vs. #15 --> vs. #7/10 --> vs. #3 --> vs. #1
#3 Seed: vs. #14 --> vs. #6/11 --> vs. #2 --> vs. #1
So, here are our results to-date vs. teams that fall into one of those categories on the current Bracket Matrix. The number in parentheses indicates if it's a #1, #2 or #3 seed path. An asterisk represents a key player being out (apologies if I missed any early games).
First Round Opponents
(1) W 98-58 vs. #16 LIU
Second Round Opponents
(1) L 90-92 in OT vs. #8 Wisconsin**
(1) W 75-69 at #8 Iowa
(2) W 71-51 vs. #10 Indiana*
(3) W 75-62 vs. #6 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
(3) W 91-48 vs. #11 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
Sweet Sixteen Opponents
(1) W 81-77 vs. #4 Texas Tech
(1) L 86-90 vs. #5 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
(2) W 78-69 at #3 Nebraska*
(2) L 80-83 vs. #3 Nebraska
(2) L 82-85 in OT at #3 Michigan State*
(3) W 88-82 at #2 Purdue*
Elite Eight Opponents
(1) W 88-82 at #2 Purdue*
(1) W 78-69 at #3 Nebraska*
(1) L 80-83 vs. #3 Nebraska
(1) L 82-85 in OT at #3 Michigan State*
(2) L 61-74 vs. #1 UConn (New York, NY)
(3) L 61-74 vs. #1 UConn (New York, NY)
We also have the following games upcoming under each classification:
First Round Opponents
N/A
Second Round Opponents
(2) at #10 USC
(3) at #11 UCLA
Sweet Sixteen Opponents
N/A
Elite Eight Opponents
(2) vs. #1 Michigan
(3) vs. #1 Michigan
So the TL;DR is that we have fared very well in the types of games we would expect to have en route to a Sweet Sixteen as a top 3 seed, with the only exception being an OT loss to Wisconsin when we were down two starters. We are 3-3 in "Sweet Sixteen-type games," with the losses all being very close. For the types of games we'd need to win to get to the Final Four, we are 2-2 vs. #2/3 seed types, and we are 0-1 vs. prospective #1 seeds, though it's worth noting that UConn loss was quite a while ago, and we have looked so much better since (for the most part).
Considering we are currently projected as a #2 seed, the West Coast trip could be a GREAT experience for this group if it can come away 2-0, as it could simulate an environment of traveling farther away than we'd like and facing two teams that we "should beat" but that are also perfectly capable of stealing one vs. us if it's just not our day. Being able to grind out a win in both LA gyms will be very encouraging to me that this group - hopefully now fully healthy - is beginning what is hopefully our home stretch of preparing for a deep NCAA run!
#1 Seed: vs. #16 --> vs. #8/9 --> vs. #4/5 --> vs. #2/3
#2 Seed: vs. #15 --> vs. #7/10 --> vs. #3 --> vs. #1
#3 Seed: vs. #14 --> vs. #6/11 --> vs. #2 --> vs. #1
So, here are our results to-date vs. teams that fall into one of those categories on the current Bracket Matrix. The number in parentheses indicates if it's a #1, #2 or #3 seed path. An asterisk represents a key player being out (apologies if I missed any early games).
First Round Opponents
(1) W 98-58 vs. #16 LIU
Second Round Opponents
(1) L 90-92 in OT vs. #8 Wisconsin**
(1) W 75-69 at #8 Iowa
(2) W 71-51 vs. #10 Indiana*
(3) W 75-62 vs. #6 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
(3) W 91-48 vs. #11 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
Sweet Sixteen Opponents
(1) W 81-77 vs. #4 Texas Tech
(1) L 86-90 vs. #5 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
(2) W 78-69 at #3 Nebraska*
(2) L 80-83 vs. #3 Nebraska
(2) L 82-85 in OT at #3 Michigan State*
(3) W 88-82 at #2 Purdue*
Elite Eight Opponents
(1) W 88-82 at #2 Purdue*
(1) W 78-69 at #3 Nebraska*
(1) L 80-83 vs. #3 Nebraska
(1) L 82-85 in OT at #3 Michigan State*
(2) L 61-74 vs. #1 UConn (New York, NY)
(3) L 61-74 vs. #1 UConn (New York, NY)
We also have the following games upcoming under each classification:
First Round Opponents
N/A
Second Round Opponents
(2) at #10 USC
(3) at #11 UCLA
Sweet Sixteen Opponents
N/A
Elite Eight Opponents
(2) vs. #1 Michigan
(3) vs. #1 Michigan
So the TL;DR is that we have fared very well in the types of games we would expect to have en route to a Sweet Sixteen as a top 3 seed, with the only exception being an OT loss to Wisconsin when we were down two starters. We are 3-3 in "Sweet Sixteen-type games," with the losses all being very close. For the types of games we'd need to win to get to the Final Four, we are 2-2 vs. #2/3 seed types, and we are 0-1 vs. prospective #1 seeds, though it's worth noting that UConn loss was quite a while ago, and we have looked so much better since (for the most part).
Considering we are currently projected as a #2 seed, the West Coast trip could be a GREAT experience for this group if it can come away 2-0, as it could simulate an environment of traveling farther away than we'd like and facing two teams that we "should beat" but that are also perfectly capable of stealing one vs. us if it's just not our day. Being able to grind out a win in both LA gyms will be very encouraging to me that this group - hopefully now fully healthy - is beginning what is hopefully our home stretch of preparing for a deep NCAA run!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I really don't think this is how you should think about this. The odds that ANY one team cuts down the nets is so incredibly low ... you should never wish away adding another Big Ten Championship banner to the rafters because it could MAYBE improve our odds of winning it all. If we cut down the nets, it's because we are LOCKED in come March Madness, and nobody is going to stop these guys without one hell of an effort if that's the case. We might as well care deeply about winning any championship we can in the meantime!
We can get a banner by winning the BTT. I would rather have teams behind us lose so we can assure a triple bye.
I could care less, like you, about the regular season as long as we secure a triple bye. We saw the last time we won the regular season, we lost to IU on Friday. We won the BTT as a 2 seed a couple of years ago. Rather win the BTT and get a solid seed on Selection Sunday. Michigan has three possibly loses left. If they win tonight, which I have no issue with, that gives PU another loss and we have the tie breaker. We need MSU and Nebraska to lose as they I believe have the tie breakers over us.
I'm saying which one I care more about.
Statistically, winning your conference and making a deep run in the tourney are closely correlated. So I'd love if we won out and were B1G Champions.
Would you bring back Andrej a little early this week knowing a loss out west essentially knocks you out of the regular season title? Or make sure he's healthy for the stretch run/tourney?
I'd love to win the B1G. Realistically, that was taken away when Kylan and Andrej got hurt. Can we still win the B1G? Sure, and I'll be happy as anyone in here when it happens.
The variancs and duality is so absurd. Literally a few weeks ago I can remember a post talking about how they'd rather not win the B10 title if it means sharing with Michigan (basically, would prefer neither Illinois and Michigan win the title versus both Illinois and Michigan win the title).
And now it's root for Michigan to actively squash our hopes at the title.
I can genuinely say, in 100% honesty, I never in my wildest thoughts forseed a discussion talking about wanting scUM to win this game lol.
I really don't see it this way.
First of all, it's not extremely unlikely. We just finished a 2 month stretch where we didn't lose at all, and beat 2 top5 opponents on the road in that timeframe.
Secondly, and this is just my own viewpoint... I'd REALLY love to see that game as a title game (and we all should). More than just about anything right now. Maybe we win, maybe we lose... but at least you get that chance.
That game was gonna be massive regardless ever since Morez left. But just imagine the buzz around it with Illinois at 3 Ls and Michigan at 2 Ls in the conf standings.
It legitimately might be sold (in the media) as the biggest CBB game this season (and you wouldn't be wrong one bit). It WILL be the biggest home game since Wake Forrest in 2005. I definitely think it'll be bigger than 2022 Iowa (no undermining how pivotal it was to win that game).
So, actively wanting to squander that opportunity just for... Purdue to lose? Really doesn't make much sense IMO.
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I don't know why some people at this stage continue to say things like 'it's extremely unlikely' when it comes to this team. This team won 12 games in a row and has shown an ability to rise to the occasion many times. This doubt that this team can't do something is ridiculous at this point.
Per Torvik, I believe Illinois has a 23.2% chance of winning all of its remaining B1G regular season games
A nearly 1 in 4 chance is "unlikely" by definition, but certainly falls short of "extremely unlikely" which would be like winning the lottery or something
I'm a Purdue fan tomorrow 100%
I guess I can't get a like from @Fly Illini Fly! Still mad about the Andrej injury debate. It is what it is I guess
Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
Purdue it is.
- Status