Week of 2/16 Bracketology

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#51      
As long as one of them loses, I’m ok. 😀
Would rather Michigan lose and keep the title showdown game alive.
But if Purdue loses, the consolation prize is that it moves us closer to the triple bye, especially owning the tie-breaker over Purdue.
We just need to take care of our own business a possession at a time.
 
#54      
I think Purdue losing is actually the best possible outcome. A loss for Purdue means a better chance at a 2 seed.

I think us winning out the regular season + a Michigan loss (or 2) is very likely.

Call me pessimistic. But West coast road trip+Michigan at home seems like a tall task.

Do think we can beat Oregon at home and Maryland away. 25 wins would be a great shot at a high 2.
I’m not arguing that I might be slightly buzzed, but aren’t sentences 2 and 3 in this post kind of contradictory?
 
#55      
I’m not arguing that I might be slightly buzzed, but aren’t sentences 2 and 3 in this post kind of contradictory?
I meant unlikely instead of likely.

Purdue has a very tough schedule outside of the Michigan game. I think we stay above them in B1G and tournament seeding unless they go on an absolute tear.

Was just trying to point out the possibility of either outcome being a positive outcome.

With Michigan playing MAYBE 3 conference games they could lose.... Purdue, Illinois, and MSU. We should certainly hope Purdue wins tomorrow.
 
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#56      
I meant unlikely instead of likely.

Purdue has a very tough schedule outside of the Michigan game. I think we stay above them in B1G and tournament seeding unless they go on an absolute tear.

Was just trying to point out the possibility of either outcome being a positive outcome.

With Michigan playing MAYBE 3 conference games they could lose.... Purdue, Illinois, and MSU. We should certainly hope Purdue wins tomorrow.
Screenshot_20260216-211206_Google~2.jpg

Of note in the B1G race...MSU may be absolutely reeling by the time they play Michigan in March.

I could legitimately see them losing any of these games remaining with the lone cake walk being Rutgers who gave them everything they wanted and more in the RAC.
 
#57      
I meant unlikely instead of likely.

Purdue has a very tough schedule outside of the Michigan game. I think we stay above them in B1G and tournament seeding unless they go on an absolute tear.

Was just trying to point out the possibility of either outcome being a positive outcome.

With Michigan playing MAYBE 3 conference games they could lose.... Purdue, Illinois, and MSU. We should certainly hope Purdue wins tomorrow.
The BIG may not require Michigan to play all their games.
 
#59      
We can get a banner by winning the BTT. I would rather have teams behind us lose so we can assure a triple bye.
1. National title
2. final 4
3. S16/E8
4. B1G regular season title
5. First round win in the ncaat
6. Winning the BTT


Is my opinion on order of importance, with a solid gap between 4, 5, & 6
 
#60      
1. National title
2. final 4
3. S16/E8
4. B1G regular season title
5. First round win in the ncaat
6. Winning the BTT


Is my opinion on order of importance, with a solid gap between 4, 5, & 6

#4 & #5 are tricky because if you get #4, then not getting #5 would probably be an embarrassing upset. I think I'd rather finish 2nd in the B1G and win a game at the tourney. At least game 2 in that situation is probably against a respectable team.
 
#61      
Absolutely not, no! Do not want Michigan to beat Purdue, we can literally control our own destiny for a conf title 🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️.

How this is even a debate is beyond me.

FWIW, yes, I agree we should want Purdue to lose, but this game was always one we needed them to win. It’s been that way for like a month.
 
#62      
1. National title
2. final 4
3. S16/E8
4. B1G regular season title
5. First round win in the ncaat
6. Winning the BTT


Is my opinion on order of importance, with a solid gap between 4, 5, & 6
My ranking:

1. Natty



2. Final Four


3. B1G regular season
4. Elite 8

5. Sweet 16
6. BTT
7. 1st weekend

5,6,7 are tricky for me. BTT is nice because you get a banner. Sweet 16 is nice but I don't see it as any kind of elite achievement. They have the least cache but you could argue making it through the mine field that is the first weekend is the most important piece of the whole thing.
 
#66      
Obviously you are strictly speaking of B1G teams. Duke can also easily beat them on Saturday. I also would not sleep on the road game they have @Iowa if they play the way they did in Evanston.

It would not be shocking if Michigan has a similar week that Arizona had last week. It really is that difficult of a week for Michigan.
100%. Recency bais plays a hand in certain narratives as well. Because Michigan has looked so dominant and hasn't lost in over a month, people will pencil them in to almost never lose.

However, if they go 0-2 this week with games @Purdue and Duke (both games easily losable)... then all of a sudden the thought of them dropping a few becomes a lot more realistic.

You could argue the same thing for Arizona.
 
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#67      
My ranking:

1. Natty



2. Final Four


3. B1G regular season
4. Elite 8

5. Sweet 16
6. BTT
7. 1st weekend

5,6,7 are tricky for me. BTT is nice because you get a banner. Sweet 16 is nice but I don't see it as any kind of elite achievement. They have the least cache but you could argue making it through the mine field that is the first weekend is the most important piece of the whole thing.
Agree with this. I put very little value in #7. I would maybe swap 5 & 6.

I think at our program's level the sweet 16 should be the floor, but winning the BTT is a tall order even for some of the best teams.
 
#68      
To me.....B1G regular season, E8, and BTT are all equal. Get either of those and its a hell of a season.
 
#69      
To me.....B1G regular season, E8, and BTT are all equal. Get either of those and its a hell of a season.
This is so crazy to me.

It is a bit different now that the Big Ten is dead (if we were fighting UCLA and Maryland for this title I wouldn't care nearly as much), but generally speaking I just feel like objectively the conference regular season is a greater honor that says more about the quality of a team than anything short of a Final Four (you could even argue more so than a Final Four, but it is the nature of CBB that FF is a "go down for eternity" metric).

CBB fans wildly overvalue tournament success imho. I badly do not want football to become like that.
 
#70      
To me.....B1G regular season, E8, and BTT are all equal. Get either of those and its a hell of a season.
Here are a few questions I ask myself to compare NCAA tournament benchmarks and conference accolades:

1. For Houston, was last year the year that they won the Big 12 regular season title and Big 12 tournament, or the year they made the Championship game?
2. For Duke, was last year the year that they won the ACC regular season title and ACC tournament, or the year that they made it to the Final Four?
3. For Michigan State, was last year the year that they won the B1G regular season title, or the year they made the Elite 8?
4. For Florida, was last year the year that they won the SEC regular season title, or the NCAA title? TRICK QUESTION, they didn't win the SEC regular season title....
5. For Gonzaga, was last year the year they won the WCC regular season title and WCC tournament, or the year they made the Sweet 16?

*I'm halfway joking with some of these, as not all conference titles/tournaments are the same
 
#71      
This is so crazy to me.

It is a bit different now that the Big Ten is dead (if we were fighting UCLA and Maryland for this title I wouldn't care nearly as much), but generally speaking I just feel like objectively the conference regular season is a greater honor that says more about the quality of a team than anything short of a Final Four (you could even argue more so than a Final Four, but it is the nature of CBB that FF is a "go down for eternity" metric).

CBB fans wildly overvalue tournament success imho. I badly do not want football to become like that.

Agree for sure that regular season title in the B1G is the toughest and says more about the quality of the team. I'm just saying that if you can snag either of those three, its an elite season/one to remember.
 
#72      
Here are a few questions I ask myself to compare NCAA tournament benchmarks and conference accolades:

1. For Houston, was last year the year that they won the Big 12 regular season title and Big 12 tournament, or the year they made the Championship game?
2. For Duke, was last year the year that they won the ACC regular season title and ACC tournament, or the year that they made it to the Final Four?
3. For Michigan State, was last year the year that they won the B1G regular season title, or the year they made the Elite 8?
4. For Florida, was last year the year that they won the SEC regular season title, or the NCAA title? TRICK QUESTION, they didn't win the SEC regular season title....
5. For Gonzaga, was last year the year they won the WCC regular season title and WCC tournament, or the year they made the Sweet 16?

*I'm halfway joking with some of these, as not all conference titles/tournaments are the same

IMO Final Four is above all...so for 1 and 2 I'd remember as FF seasons. And honestly I do think of MSU last year more as B1G Champs then E8 finalist.
 
#73      
Here are a few questions I ask myself to compare NCAA tournament benchmarks and conference accolades:

1. For Houston, was last year the year that they won the Big 12 regular season title and Big 12 tournament, or the year they made the Championship game?
2. For Duke, was last year the year that they won the ACC regular season title and ACC tournament, or the year that they made it to the Final Four?
3. For Michigan State, was last year the year that they won the B1G regular season title, or the year they made the Elite 8?
4. For Florida, was last year the year that they won the SEC regular season title, or the NCAA title? TRICK QUESTION, they didn't win the SEC regular season title....
5. For Gonzaga, was last year the year they won the WCC regular season title and WCC tournament, or the year they made the Sweet 16?

*I'm halfway joking with some of these, as not all conference titles/tournaments are the same
Different leagues are different of course. The WCC is a two team league Gonzaga always wins so that doesn't really stand out, and the Big XII is an unholy media rights holding company Houston has no real historical relationship to, so that can't mean the same thing.

I'm also kinda anti-conference tournament as an equivalent to the regular season, though BU's two are somewhat special cases for me, 2021 confirming and rubbing Michigan's nose in us being the true champions and 2024 being the final revenue sport competition for all time by something deserving the name "Big Ten". Those both meant a lot to me personally.
 
#74      
This is so crazy to me.

It is a bit different now that the Big Ten is dead (if we were fighting UCLA and Maryland for this title I wouldn't care nearly as much), but generally speaking I just feel like objectively the conference regular season is a greater honor that says more about the quality of a team than anything short of a Final Four (you could even argue more so than a Final Four, but it is the nature of CBB that FF is a "go down for eternity" metric).

CBB fans wildly overvalue tournament success imho. I badly do not want football to become like that.
Long rant incoming, lol, as I also find the "only the postseason matters" attitude incredibly sad and an indictment on so much of the "mystique" of college sports being lost in the last decade plus. I generally agree with your last statement, and I H-A-T-E the relatively new yet mostly prevalent attitude among college sports fans that teams who haven't literally won a National Championship "haven't done anything." That might sound like a ridiculous strawman, but you see this all the time with comments about Oregon Football, and while I get that it is trolling ... that is sort of the point. To say something like Oregon Football's financial investments in its programs have "amounted to nothing" because they haven't won a National Championship is such a low IQ take, lol. College sports are supposed to be about pageantry and tradition, and I generally find that the more intelligent and thoughtful a sports fan is, the more he/she will give praise to a wider range of programs for their accomplishments. If you are not in awe of the 1990s Braves because they "only" won one World Series, well ... your opinion should be considered so ridiculously casual as to be irrelevant.

With that said, I will say that I think there are tiers based on a program's current situation. In 2021, I can honestly say I cared way more about winning the BTT than making the Sweet Sixteen. Given how we were screwed out of a regular season title, I REALLY wanted that group to be able to hang a banner. In fact, I honestly don't think I had ever heard the term "make the Second Weekend" until it became a constantly used attack term used by rival fan bases (especially Michigan) to trash an Illini Basketball program that was CLEARLY back yet just happened to have lost in the Second Round two years in a row. For all of my sports life, each round of the NCAA Tournament was its own island to me and most fans I knew ... losing in the Second Round was better than in the First Round, losing in the Sweet Sixteen was better than the Second Round, losing in the Elite Eight was better than the Sweet Sixteen, etc. There wasn't this magical wall of "success" that came with making a Sweet Sixteen. The only exception was making the Final Four, given the extreme level of pageantry and celebration involved with that feat; everything before it was just varying degrees of a good season that fell short of a Final Four.

In 2022, I cared way more about winning the Big Ten regular season (once it was on the table) than how we did in the NCAA Tournament. We hadn't won one in 17 years, and the aforementioned screw job from 2021 was still fresh. I also had started to have a sort of 2006-esque feeling with that team by early March where we just seemed like a low floor/low ceiling squad that would sort of blend in with our program's good history, so I was glad they got some sort of eternal recognition with a championship of some kind. I was annoyed by the haters talking about "another Second Round loss" and really wanted to make it to the Sweet Sixteen, sure ... but instead of a conference championship?? No way.

However ... fast forward to 2023 and especially 2024, and I very much was swayed by the idea of getting the Sweet Sixteen monkey off of our backs. Winning the BTT was awesome, but I would have been epically disappointed if we went down in the Second Round yet again. It was so nice to finally see our name in the bracket in the later stages when the nation's eyes were focused on an increasingly small number of teams. So, I understand the sentiment. With that said, though ... we have already done all of that during this Underwood renaissance. BTT banner? Check. Regular season banner? Check. First Round NBA Draft picks? Check. "Deep" March Madness run? Check. So, with the obvious exception of treating a Final Four (and even more obviously a National Championship victory!) as this sort of end-all accomplishment, I truly don't get at this point not viewing each individual accomplishment sort of "in its own lane" - separate little trophies our storied program can add to the trophy case without sacrificing our prospects for other accomplishments!
 
#75      
To me.....B1G regular season, E8, and BTT are all equal. Get either of those and its a hell of a season.
I'd like to go with:

National Title
Big Ten Tourney Title
Big Ten Season Title
Final Four
Elite Eight
Sweet Sixteen
First Round (If we were to lose the first round, how many of our starters are injured?)
 
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