Week of 2/2 Bracketology

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#51      
rdk573
lstewart53x3 said:
View attachment 47152View attachment 47153
www.espn.com

Men's Bracketology: How the projected NCAA tournament field is taking shape

The selection show is almost here! Here's the latest look at what we're expecting when it starts.
www.espn.com
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These victories in the top half of Quad 1 move the needle more than any other in terms of NCAA tournament seeding. As a result, the Illini reside as the top 2-seed in our latest bracket (No. 5 overall). That's the good news. The bad -- if we can call it that -- is the sizable gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds on our board. One could drive a truck through the space between Illinois and UConn, currently the last 1-seed.

Huhhh?? Based on Kenpom, Torvik, and Net, we're an eyelash away from a # 1... What metric is ESPN using to indicate that we're so far from a #1??
 
#52      
BalloonsTheElephant
rdk573 said:
These victories in the top half of Quad 1 move the needle more than any other in terms of NCAA tournament seeding. As a result, the Illini reside as the top 2-seed in our latest bracket (No. 5 overall). That's the good news. The bad -- if we can call it that -- is the sizable gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds on our board. One could drive a truck through the space between Illinois and UConn, currently the last 1-seed.

Huhhh?? Based on Kenpom, Torvik, and Net, we're an eyelash away from a # 1... What metric is ESPN using to indicate that we're so far from a #1??
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The infamous "howMuchWeLikeYou" KPI which ESPN uses quite often.
 
#53      
lstewart53x3
rdk573 said:
These victories in the top half of Quad 1 move the needle more than any other in terms of NCAA tournament seeding. As a result, the Illini reside as the top 2-seed in our latest bracket (No. 5 overall). That's the good news. The bad -- if we can call it that -- is the sizable gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds on our board. One could drive a truck through the space between Illinois and UConn, currently the last 1-seed.

Huhhh?? Based on Kenpom, Torvik, and Net, we're an eyelash away from a # 1... What metric is ESPN using to indicate that we're so far from a #1??
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Likely Q1 + Q2 wins combined. #9 in that, whereas UConn is #2

IMG_0462.jpeg
 
#57      
Piotyr
sacraig said:
Our head-to-head loss to UConn doesn't help us in this regard. We need to beat Michigan head to head.
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The game against UConn was closer than the final score indicated, and it was before Keaton was in his final form, so in general I would hope people would understand that the teams are different now than they were then.
 
#59      
aaeismacgychel
Piotyr said:
The game against UConn was closer than the final score indicated, and it was before Keaton was in his final form, so in general I would hope people would understand that the teams are different now than they were then.
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Unless UCONN stumbles with the Johnnies or Nova, I don't think there's a practical way we catch them for a 1 seed. They have a fairly easy remaining schedule. Probably will finish with 3 losses at most. Hard to see them dropping from the 1 seed line. Duke has some tougher ones coming up, so maybe they drop to 4 losses.

Arizona and Michigan have by far the toughest schedules remaining of the 4. They each have higher likelihood to go on an extended losing streak, but Zona is a game ahead and we have an effect on the Michigan game. So overall, I'd tend to agree with the OP that if we want a 1 seed it will likely come at Michigan's expense. Need to win the games in front of us, beat them head to head, and get some help from our B10 brethren to knock them down a peg.
 
#60      
rdk573
aaeismacgychel said:
Interesting placement by Lunardi. A 2 seed and getting St. Louis as the 7 in the STL pod would be nightmare fuel inducing. That team is very good- can shoot the absolute lights out. I would not want any part of that 2nd round matchup, especially in their own backyard. And it's not that I don't trust our guys, but that's the type of midmajor where if they get hot, they can go nuclear. Solid defense as well.
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At such a game, there would be more Illini fans than St Louis fans..You can almost guarantee that..
 
#62      
ChiefGritty
aaeismacgychel said:
Interesting placement by Lunardi. A 2 seed and getting St. Louis as the 7 in the STL pod would be nightmare fuel inducing.
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That would never happen in the actual bracket, they would not make a 2 play in St Louis against SLU as a 7. One could blame Lunardi for laziness in producing that, but I have some sympathy, there are a lot of weird persnickety bracket rules and where do you draw the line?
 
#63      
fuggles
It is good to see Illinois getting some love on ESPN. And Lunardi is a fraud. Spouts bs until the night before selection sunday. And then shows his nearly perfect bracket. imo no way UConn is a 1 seed. We'll see.
 
#64      
SkyysNotFalling
aaeismacgychel said:
Unless UCONN stumbles with the Johnnies or Nova, I don't think there's a practical way we catch them for a 1 seed. They have a fairly easy remaining schedule. Probably will finish with 3 losses at most. Hard to see them dropping from the 1 seed line. Duke has some tougher ones coming up, so maybe they drop to 4 losses.

Arizona and Michigan have by far the toughest schedules remaining of the 4. They each have higher likelihood to go on an extended losing streak, but Zona is a game ahead and we have an effect on the Michigan game. So overall, I'd tend to agree with the OP that if we want a 1 seed it will likely come at Michigan's expense. Need to win the games in front of us, beat them head to head, and get some help from our B10 brethren to knock them down a peg.
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It’s as simple as win out the regular season-> 1 seed. Don’t need to worry about other teams at this point.
 
#65      
Fighter of the Nightman
rdk573 said:
These victories in the top half of Quad 1 move the needle more than any other in terms of NCAA tournament seeding. As a result, the Illini reside as the top 2-seed in our latest bracket (No. 5 overall). That's the good news. The bad -- if we can call it that -- is the sizable gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds on our board. One could drive a truck through the space between Illinois and UConn, currently the last 1-seed.

Huhhh?? Based on Kenpom, Torvik, and Net, we're an eyelash away from a # 1... What metric is ESPN using to indicate that we're so far from a #1??
Click to expand...
I feel like in general, Bracketology is always done "as of today," and our 3 losses have caused such a hang up for a while. But guess what? With each passing day and every new win we get, 3 losses will become more of the norm for teams in our "neighborhood" of seeding. Look at Illinois, Michigan and UConn today in ESPN's Bracketology projection:

#1 Michigan: 20-1, #3 NET, 8-0 vs. Quad 1, 7-1 vs. Quad 2
#1 UConn: 21-1, #7 NET, 5-1 vs. Quad 1, 8-0 vs. Quad 2
#2 Illinois: 19-3, #6 NET, 7-3 vs. Quad 1, 3-0 vs. Quad 2


And just imagine the following takes place this week.

(1) Michigan beats PSU at home but loses at Ohio State. 1 Quad 3 win at home, 1 Quad 1A road loss.
(1) Illini keep on winning and go 2-0. 1 Quad 2 win at home, 1 Quad 1A road win.
(2) UConn loses at St. John's (NY) but beats Xavier at home. 1 Quad 3 home win and 1 Quad 1 road loss.

This is what it looks like next week:

#1 Michigan: 21-2, #3 (?) NET, 8-1 vs. Quad 1, 7-1 vs. Quad 2
#1 UConn: 22-2, #7 (?) NET, 5-2 vs. Quad 1, 8-0 vs. Quad 2
#2 Illinois: 21-3, #6 (?) NET, 8-3 vs. Quad 1, 4-0 vs. Quad 2

A LOT can change in a week, and we have a lot left to play. Illinois is inching closer and closer to being "on track" to a #1 seed with each win ... just keep winning.
 
#66      
Piotyr
What's really going to grind everyone's gears will be if Selection Sunday comes along, Illinois gets the 4th 1 seed, and they still don't get the Chicago Region because the top 3 1 seeds are Arizona-Duke-UConn, so Arizona gets the West, Duke the East, and UConn the Midwest as preference over the South.

EDIT: Also, in this scenario, the next best B1G teams (say, Michigan) gets the 2 seed in Chicago.
 
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#67      
jamarvelous31
Piotyr said:
What's really going to grind everyone's gears will be if Selection Sunday comes along, Illinois gets the 4th 1 seed, and they still don't get the Chicago Region because the top 3 1 seeds are Arizona-Duke-UConn, so Arizona gets the West, Duke the East, and UConn the Midwest as preference over the South.
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Philadelphia-Houston-Indy isn't terrible as long as A&M and Houston don't get a home game against us

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#68      
ptgrd23
Formula for #1 seed

1. Illini Run the table regular season 19-3 -> 28-3
* including wins @ #10 MSU and at home vs. #2 Michigan
2. Michigan 20-1 -> 28-3
* Loses at #5 Illinois, Loses at #12 Purdue, beats # 4 Duke, beats #10 MSU at home
3. Illini get #1 seed based on head to head regular win
4. Of course we could see rematch in BTT finals. If this is the case I think both should get #1 seeds
* They should bump UCONN due to weak Big East schedule (only 3 NCAA teams from Big East, B10 forecast 11, ACC forecast 8 )
 
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#69      
Curbelo Fanboy
It would seem Michigan is the "gettable" 1 seed. TBH the B12 & Big East are pretty charmin soft this year so the depth of teams past like the top 3 in each league really drops off. So the likelihood of Zona or UCONN (especially UCONN) losing much is sort of unlikely.

The BIG is such a grinder that Michigan could stumble some. They have looked somewhat mortal in recent games (losing to Wiscy, barely surviving Penn State). Honestly that's the one we want anyway if we want to get the Chicago regional. If Michigan is still high enough to be on the 1 line they are probably going to Chicago & would frankly deserve it since they have been at the top all year.

The other 3 have no ties to the region so would be more likely to go elsewhere. Getting Chicago isn't a guarantee or a be all/end all, but having to win a S16 or E8 game in front of a raucous home type crowd is a heck of a lot easier than winning that same game in Houston, San Jose or DC.

As I think back to 2005, I can honestly say I don't think the AZ comeback happens if that game is somewhere other than in Illinois country. We were dead to rights but the crowd virtually willed that team home. It was like the 18,000 there just refused to let it end. Of course the team made plays but the crowd at the end was a huge factor. We really want that if we can get it again.
 
#71      
Curbelo Fanboy
Piotyr said:
The B12 is a grinder, Arizona just hasn't gotten there yet. The close to their season is rough.
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True - it just seems the drop off after the top 6 is pretty substantial. And KS isn't what they usually are. Not bad but not great. Does anyone think anyone beyond AZ & Houston could go to the final four out of that league. Maybe Iowa State but that seems to be it. BIG would be Mich, MSU, IL, Nebby, Purdue all capable. Big East is UConn & maybe St Johns.

My comment was more applicable to the Big East. It's basically a 3 team league with Conn, St Johns & Nova. After that it drops off. Seton Hall is 16-6 & the next best record in the league is 12-10.
 
#72      
Fighter of the Nightman
Piotyr said:
What's really going to grind everyone's gears will be if Selection Sunday comes along, Illinois gets the 4th 1 seed, and they still don't get the Chicago Region because the top 3 1 seeds are Arizona-Duke-UConn, so Arizona gets the West, Duke the East, and UConn the Midwest as preference over the South.

EDIT: Also, in this scenario, the next best B1G teams (say, Michigan) gets the 2 seed in Chicago.
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Wait ... so is your edit saying that we would be more likely to get Chicago as a #2 seed out of the Big Ten with Michigan as the fourth overall #1 seed? Because that is not an unlikely scenario at all...
 
#73      
Fighter of the Nightman
Piotyr said:
The game against UConn was closer than the final score indicated, and it was before Keaton was in his final form, so in general I would hope people would understand that the teams are different now than they were then.
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This is totally conjecture here, but I still think it is a bit of a mystery how much the Committee considers "recent" results. Officially, they simply look at the body of work, and that makes sense. However, for this specific category of head-to-head results, it wouldn't surprise me if they let a game in November hold a tiny bit less weight as a tie breaker for two very similar resumes than they would a huge win in early March or something. I'm not saying this is the case, it just wouldn't surprise me.
 
#74      
Fighter of the Nightman
Piotyr said:
What's really going to grind everyone's gears will be if Selection Sunday comes along, Illinois gets the 4th 1 seed, and they still don't get the Chicago Region because the top 3 1 seeds are Arizona-Duke-UConn, so Arizona gets the West, Duke the East, and UConn the Midwest as preference over the South.

EDIT: Also, in this scenario, the next best B1G teams (say, Michigan) gets the 2 seed in Chicago.
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On this note, as well ... I'm assuming I am not alone in thinking that a path as a #2 seed through St. Louis and Chicago is at least as good for this team than a path as a #1 seed through different locations.
 
#75      
grue2
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Wait ... so is your edit saying that we would be more likely to get Chicago as a #2 seed out of the Big Ten with Michigan as the fourth overall #1 seed? Because that is not an unlikely scenario at all...
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Can anyone cite an instance where the committee choose to displaces two #1 seeds vs. a single #1 seed? (No time to check myself right now.)
 
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