Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
As a follow-up to this for #1 seeds over the same time period...
2025 - National Champion, National Runner Up, Final Four, Final Four
2024 - National Champion, National Runner Up, Sweet Sixteen, Sweet Sixteen
2023 - Sweet Sixteen, Sweet Sixteen, Second Round, First Round
2022 - National Champion, Sweet Sixteen, Sweet Sixteen, Second Round
2021 - National Champion, National Runner Up, Elite Eight, Second Round
2019 - National Champion, Elite Eight, Elite Eight, Sweet Sixteen
2018 - National Champion, Final Four, Second Round, First Round
2017 - National Champion, National Runner Up, Elite Eight, Second Round
2016 - National Runner Up, Elite Eight, Elite Eight, Elite Eight
2015 - National Champion, National Runner Up, Final Four, Second Round
2014 - Final Four, Elite Eight, Sweet Sixteen, Second Round
2013 - National Champion, Sweet Sixteen, Sweet Sixteen, Second Round
2012 - National Champion, Elite Eight, Elite Eight, Sweet Sixteen
2011 - Elite Eight, Sweet Sixteen, Sweet Sixteen, Second Round
2010 - National Champion, Elite Eight, Sweet Sixteen, Second Round
2009 - National Champion, Final Four, Elite Eight, Elite Eight
2008 - National Champion, National Runner Up, Final Four, Final Four
2007 - National Champion, National Runner Up, Elite Eight, Elite Eight
2006 - Elite Eight, Elite Eight, Elite Eight, Sweet Sixteen
2005 - National Champion, National Runner Up, Sweet Sixteen, Sweet Sixteen
So of the 80 teams...
- 2 (2.5%) lost in the First Round. So 78 (97.5%) at least made it to the Second Round. These were of course the first two losses ever!
- 10 (12.5%) lost in the Second Round. So 68 (85.0%) at least made it to the Sweet Sixteen.
- 17 (21.3%) lost in the Sweet Sixteen. So 51 (63.8%) made it to the Elite Eight or beyond.
- 19 (23.8%) lost in the Elite Eight. So 32 (40.0%) made it to the Final Four or beyond.
- 8 (10.0%) lost in their first Final Four game. So 24 (30.0%) made it to the National Championship Game.
- Of the 24 that played for a title, 9 (11.3%) finished as National Runner Up and 15 (18.8%) won the National Championship.
Kind of interesting note here that corroborates the old adage that it's just about who is hot come March. In this time span, a #1 seed only made it to the Final Four 40% of the time. However, IF a #1 seed made it to the Final Four, it also won that first Final Four game 75% of the time and would go on to win it all almost 63% of the time.
In other words, it's not that uncommon for #1 seeds to underachieve and lose early, but it's actually pretty rare for them to make it all the way to the Final Four and get knocked out before the National Championship Game.
Just for some bonus content over this same period since I was already looking it up, here was the make up of the Final Four by year. National Champion listed first, National Runner Up listed second and then the other two Final Four participants.
2025 - #1, #1, #1, #1
2024 - #1, #1, #4, #11
2023 - #4, #5, #5, #9
2022 - #1, #8, #2, #2
2021 - #1, #1, #2, #11
2019 - #1, #3, #2, #5
2018 - #1, #3, #1, #11
2017 - #1, #1, #3, #7
2016 - #2, #1, #2, #10
2015 - #1, #1, #1, #7
2014 - #7, #8, #1, #2
2013 - #1, #4, #4, #9
2012 - #1, #2, #2, #4
2011 - #3, #8, #4, #11
2010 - #1, #5, #2, #5
2009 - #1, #2, #1, #3
2008 - #1, #1, #1, #1
2007 - #1, #1, #2, #2
2006 - #3, #2, #4, #11
2005 - #1, #1, #4, #5
Some of us might still be a bit scarred by the Loyola loss, but getting a #1 seed REALLY sets you up for a great Tournament run, and it really is that big of a deal to get one. Let's remember that our previous three #1 seeds resulted in a Final Four, Elite Eight and National Runner Up. You are just setting yourself up on such a favorable path if you can show up prepared and execute well, and you're even provided a good bit of margin of error by getting to play slightly worse teams all the way until the Final Four.
Just using the current bracket matrix and trying to cherry pick Illini opponents as much as possible for illustrative purposes, this would be an example of two potential paths for Illinois:
Illini #1 Seed Path
St. Louis, MO
(1) Some #16 seed
(2) Winner of #8 Iowa and #9 Wisconsin
Chicago, IL
(3) Winner of #4 Texas Tech and #5 Tennessee
(4) Winner of #2 Nebraska and #3 Purdue (after they've both had to play each other in a dog fight)
Illini #2 Seed Path
St. Louis, MO
(1) Some #15 seed
(2) Winner of #7 Saint Louis and #10 UCLA
Washington, DC
(3) Winner of #3 Purdue and #6 Arkansas
(4) Winner of #1 UConn and #4 Florida (after presumably having a very tough Sweet Sixteen game)
When playing for a shot at our first Final Four since 2005, give me playing a Nebraska/Purdue type in front of an orange clad United Center crowd over playing UConn in Washington, DC seven days a week and twice on Sunday!
