How far does UConn fall if they lose at St Johns tonight?
Week of 2/2 Bracketology
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Still on the 1 line for the time being.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
True, but I think a UConn loss tonight gives us some MUCH needed hope that we could pass them up as the third #1 seed (and thus get Chicago) in the event that we both win out after that. Fingers crossed for the Johnnies!
When we beat UM, they can't stay ahead of us, can they?
So then if we win out, we are a 1-seed no matter what else happens.
Plus we might have a chance to beat UM again in the B1G Tourney.
And No, I'm not worried about losing to any of these guys.
Could it happen, yes, but I just see us playing really solid, smart, selfless ball, and getting better every game.
What a special thing to watch.
So then if we win out, we are a 1-seed no matter what else happens.
Plus we might have a chance to beat UM again in the B1G Tourney.
And No, I'm not worried about losing to any of these guys.
Could it happen, yes, but I just see us playing really solid, smart, selfless ball, and getting better every game.
What a special thing to watch.
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
This is why Ken Pom turns that chart 45 degrees. It tells the story much more obviously
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Odds of us winning out (11 more consecutive wins) seem really, really low.
We're going to see a lot more losses from the Top 10-15 teams before we get to Selection Sunday.
Hence "pseudo"?
Now, I will say I did not mean they wouldn't be a one seed, rather, they would not be ranked ahead of us. If we win out, meaning we beat Michigan, our overall resume would by nature be better than Michigan's...
And UConn falls
Looking at the schedules of the top teams, Illinois has a pretty easy schedule comparatively with the exception of UConn and Duke. Arizona and Michigan both have 5 or 6 tough games remaining that could easily result in 2 losses. Houston and Iowa State's schedule is not much better. We beat Michigan State and we are set up to have a very realistic chance at a 1 seed.
Arizona has Kansas twice, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston (A) and Iowa State.
Houston has BYU (A), Iowa State (A), Arizona and Kansas (A).
Iowa State still needs to play Kansas, Texas Tech, Arizona (A), BYU (A) and Houston
Duke has North Carolina twice, Michigan (N) and NC State (A)
Michigan has Ohio State (A), Duke, Purdue (A), Illinois (A) Iowa (A) and Michigan State.
UConn has Villanova (A) and St. Johns.
Illinois has Michigan State (A) and Michigan.
Arizona has Kansas twice, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston (A) and Iowa State.
Houston has BYU (A), Iowa State (A), Arizona and Kansas (A).
Iowa State still needs to play Kansas, Texas Tech, Arizona (A), BYU (A) and Houston
Duke has North Carolina twice, Michigan (N) and NC State (A)
Michigan has Ohio State (A), Duke, Purdue (A), Illinois (A) Iowa (A) and Michigan State.
UConn has Villanova (A) and St. Johns.
Illinois has Michigan State (A) and Michigan.
So #3 Uconn loses to #23 St Johns on the road. When #5 Illini beat #10 MSU on the road, you gotta figure we pass them by wrt seeding, no?
I was not aware Houston’s remaining road schedule was that brutal.
Pretty good:Defense up to 19th as of this morning
Was so good yesterday it kept going up overnight lol
Also worth noting — the gap between the #1 offense and #3 offense is GREATER than the gap between the #3 offense and #12 offense.
I don't think that is at all clear. If we win out, we finish the regular season 29-3. If Michigan wins out, including their Duke game, they finish the regular season 30-2. Our Quad 1 record would be 10-3 and theirs would be 12-1. I don't have the Quad 1A numbers readily available, so I am just going to ignore them (probably not a good idea, I admit). Is 10-3 with no Quad 2 losses better than 12-1 with one Quad 2 loss? I don't think that is clear at all.Hence "pseudo"?
Now, I will say I did not mean they wouldn't be a one seed, rather, they would not be ranked ahead of us. If we win out, meaning we beat Michigan, our overall resume would by nature be better than Michigan's...
But what about the B1G tournament? Under the scenario above, if we both keep winning, we'd reach the final with at best a 12-3 Quad 1 record and they would have at best a 14-1 Quad 1 record. If we win the final, it would be 13-3 vs 14-2. In that scenario, I could imagine the tournament committee taking our TWO wins over a Michigan team with a Quad 2 loss.
But the problem with that idea is that we are told the Committee never considers the result of the B1G final. It is an interesting problem. Could the Committee refuse to say "never" and create two brackets, one assuming a Michigan win and one assuming an Illinois win? How complicated would that be? I am starting to feel a bit over my head here...
We can't both win out...
Sorry, an exceedingly poor choice of words on my part. I should have said "If Michigan wins out against everyone but Illinois..." The rest of my post was based on that assumption. We'd be 29-3, they'd be 30-2, etc. I do not think it would be clear that the Committee would seed us ahead of them.
We would still have to face them a second time with the B1G tournament. So they would also have 3 losses in that scenario.
There isn't a scenario in the world this season where if we win out, and Michigan only loses to us the rest of the way (meaning we would have two wins against them), we would not be seeded higher than them in the tournament. I will bet anything on that.
In this scenario we’d be outright BIG champs and I’d be surprised if we weren’t a 1 over Michigan.
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