BillyBob1
- Champaign
Does Jerry Palm still do their bracketing? He’s worse than Lunardi.
Week of 2/2 Bracketology
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I'm was going to wait until after our game to compare resumes, but if you look at them right now, the main thing they have going for them is that they have 1 fewer loss than us (in a vastly weaker conference) and a better marquee win than we do (their win vs us).
But we have the advantage in virtually every other category.
NET
Illinois 4
UConn 7
Predictive Metrics
Illinois avg of 5
UConn avg of 8
Results Based Metrics
Illinois avg of 6
UConn avg of 4
Q1 Wins
Illinois 6 (5 Q1A)
UConn 5 (4 Q1A)
SoS
Illinois 16
UConn 19
And if we can win today, those numbers will be even more in our favor.
CBS bracketology is weird Jerry Palm isn't there anymore. It feels like they have an automated system because some of the seeds and matchups don't make sense if you check it everyday.
Yes and no. If both teams win out the regular season (less the head to head, of course), then they would be the 1 and 2 seeds in the B1G tournament and thus could only meet in the tournament final. We are told over and over again that the Committee completes their brackets before the b1G final even begins. They'd have only two losses at that time and I think we'd lose the total body of work judgment of the Committee.
UNLESS, the Committee decides to do it differently this time. From all I have read, that is very unlikely. But if it happens, and if we win the final game, we both finish 30-3 and we have two head to head wins. I would agree that our total body of work would be superior in that case and we'd get our regional location choice before they got theirs. Conversely, if the Committee held off until after the final and Michigan won, we'd be 29-4 and they'd be 31-2 and I doubt our body of work would win out in that case.
One or both of us are going to pick up additional losses before that time barring all of the satisfaction of being right or wrong about all of this.
But there is such a scenario. If the Committee complete their seeding job before the B1G final begins, then Michigan could very well get the higher seed. Keep in mind that they almost always complete their seeding before the finals begin.
If they do the unusual and await the result of the final before seeding the tournament, then I agree we'd be seeded higher.
I've gotta think that would make a mess of a lot of the preparatory work CBS does for their tournament reveal.
If the top four seeds are (in this order): Arizona, Duke, Michigan and Illinois, then where does Illinois play?
Almost certainly in the South region- Houston. AZ West, Duke East, Michigan Midwest in that scenario, with us getting the remaining South bracket
Agreed. The bump today to 1 is basically a moot point either way. A win at Breslin would have been one more data piece to move Illinois ahead of UCONN, where a loss to MSU, would just move us back down.
Good point. It's debatable which win is better.
They won against the #4 ranked NET team on a neutral court.
We won against #8 (Purdue) on the road.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Q1 is top 30 home, 50 neutral, and 70 road.
That means a neutral win is 1.67x more difficult than home in the eyes of the committee and a road win 2.34x more difficult.
Using that formula:
#4 Illinois on a neutral is worth #2.39 at home.
#8 Purdue on the road is worth #3.41 at home.
#10 Nebraska on the road is worth #4.27 at home.
So yes, Uconn’s neutral win against us is slightly more valuable the road wins @Purdue and @Nebraska.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I’m far from a bracket expert, but it does seem as simple as this … we can’t have anyone in front of us that wouldn’t have Chicago as their last choice. In your scenario, it’s very straight forward … Arizona gets its first choice of West, Duke gets its first choice of East, Michigan gets its first choice of Midwest and we are left with South.
However, let’s even say you assume Michigan falls off and UConn still ends up the third overall. UConn would obviously prefer East over Midwest, but Duke already got it … and UConn would certainly prefer Midwest over South.
The TL;DR really does seem to be that we must finish above Michigan to get to Chicago PERIOD, and we pretty much can’t be the fourth #1 seed unless the third #1 seed would want Houston over Chicago … and I think Houston is the only option there.
I thought I read somewhere a like a decade ago, if the BTT championship would have significant seeding implications they just make two brackets for each outcome so they can still be ready to go at the end of the game. But every time I’ve seen this come up the past few years everyone says they just ignore the game.
So, "significant seeding implications" based on everything the committee has stated previously with regards to the BTT is basically if a team that wouldn't make the bracket autoqualifies by winning the BTT. This has not ever happened yet, however 1999 and 2008 Illinois both got close. In that case the committee said that the last team in would be made the first team out and the autoqualifier from the B10 would take their place in the play-in game.
Outside of that, the committee has been very clear that they have no alternate brackets dependent upon the BTT Championship game.
However, as a thought exercise, if Michigan and Illinois for example were seen to have similar resumes and they both were facing each other in the BTT Championship, where the winner would get the Chicago bracket and the loser gets Houston, that would be that exact corner case scenario that tests the committee. I still think in this case it wouldn't matter and that they'll already have sent the final bracket out to the network to be revealed, but that is the theoretical scenario that would confirm it.
You follow all of this with far more acuity than I could ever dream of. But oh the screaming that would ensue if they gave Michigan the Chicago seed and a few hours later Illinois beat them for the second time in a few weeks. Given the general level of craziness in this entire country lately, I wouldn't be surprised if a few death threats ensued.
If I was UConn, I'd take the South over the Midwest. If you choose the Midwest, MI goes south, and you (UConn) get IL as the 2 seed in your bracket. Do you really want to play IL in Chi?
I really, really, like REALLY, don't want to head into the tournament having beaten Michigan twice! Like, seriously.
sacraig
- The desert
No. If it were Palm, we'd be a 4.
And Duke goes down
So beat MSU… & we could move up 2, but not counting on it
Our offensive rating has gone up by a full point (now 131.6) after the MSU game:
The defense did go from #19 to #22.
Can someone explain that to me? The offensive rating going up after such a bad shooting night.
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
I’ll be fine with a 2 in Duke’s region. They are the ACC’s UConn.
Michigan State is the #2 defense in the country. It matters WHO you play.
The primary stat of those efficiency metrics is not shooting % but rather points per poss. Against Michigan State, we scored 1.162 points per possession — which isn’t exactly elite (we’ve constantly been above 1.2 and many times over 1.3) but like I said, matters who you are playing.
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