Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Next 4 games make/break the 2 seed - these big games have been fun but 4 games against tourney type teams, 2-3 Q1 games all against teams were favored in.
Week of 2/2 Bracketology
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We put a body on Boozer and we will win against them. I was not impressed with their D last night.
In terms of a 2 seed and winning the BIG Ten this is where we find ourselves. Two big home games this week, we need to win both. Two tough road games next week, we need to split. Then we host Michigan and need to win that one. Completing this task locks us in as a high 2 seed and gives us a real solid chance at a 1 seed. If we stumble along the way, a three seed is still the likely outcome.
chrisRunner7
- San Diego
Jerry Palm had us as a two on Friday... I googled him to find out what he's up to now, and it appears he fired up his website from 1995.
The hottest team in college basketball, besides Arizona and Miami-Ohio of course, is Illinios.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
What is this?Jerry Palm had us as a two on Friday... I googled him to find out what he's up to now, and it appears he fired up his website from 1995.
The hottest team in college basketball, besides Arizona and Miami-Ohio of course, is Illinios.
chrisRunner7
- San Diego
His coding project from high school?
running on a Pentium 486
AI is taking over the internet.
My thought is that if we are in Chicago bracket as a one or a two, it hardly matters. Illinois fans travel great and it's a home crowd. I think it's better to have the support and play a marginally better opponent, than a lessor opponent with noticeably less support. When you are talking regional finals, the difference in teams' strengths are small when compared to the impact of overwhelming fan support. For me, give me Chicago and roll the ball onto the floor!
Honestly, I want us to get out of the first weekend and our best chance to do that is St. Louis. I feel like Iowa State will be there for sure, but Kansas is closing in.
We cannot get into the Chicago bracket as a two if a B1G team is the one seed in that bracket.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
This data makes me not care all that much about the seed we get. People will post data showing that the higher the seed you have the more likely you are to advance in the tournament.
The thing is, 1 seeds advanced further in the tournament because they were a team worthy of a 1 seed. If you were to assign seed lines through a raffle, there would of course be no correlation between seeding and advancing.
And I think this data does a fairly good job of demonstrating that. This is the average KenPom Net Efficiency rating for each of the top 4 seeds over the past 5 seasons:
2021 —
2022 —
2023 —
2024 —
2025 —
Five-Year Average —
It’s no wonder 1 and 2 seeds advanced the furthest each year, they’re by far the best teams in the field.
So more important than getting a 1 seed is having a team good enough to qualify for a 1 seed, even if this year that technically means falling on the 2 line due to the strength of the field.
Btw, we currently have a rating of +33.25, which means we’re currently rated higher than the average 1 seed in all but one of the past five seasons.
The thing is, 1 seeds advanced further in the tournament because they were a team worthy of a 1 seed. If you were to assign seed lines through a raffle, there would of course be no correlation between seeding and advancing.
And I think this data does a fairly good job of demonstrating that. This is the average KenPom Net Efficiency rating for each of the top 4 seeds over the past 5 seasons:
2021 —
| Seed | Avg Rating |
| 1 | +32.27 |
| 2 | +26.07 |
| 3 | +20.59 |
| 4 | +20.70 |
2022 —
| Seed | Avg Rating |
| 1 | +27.86 |
| 2 | +25.17 |
| 3 | +22.36 |
| 4 | +19.52 |
2023 —
| Seed | Avg Rating |
| 1 | +25.58 |
| 2 | +23.26 |
| 3 | +21.07 |
| 4 | +20.24 |
2024 —
| Seed | Avg Rating |
| 1 | +31.09 |
| 2 | +26.02 |
| 3 | +23.47 |
| 4 | +21.52 |
2025 —
| Seed | Avg Rating |
| 1 | +36.62 |
| 2 | +31.84 |
| 3 | +26.19 |
| 4 | +25.33 |
Five-Year Average —
| Seed Line | 5-Year Avg Rating |
| 1-Seeds | +30.68 |
| 2-Seeds | +26.47 |
| 3-Seeds | +22.74 |
| 4-Seeds | +21.46 |
It’s no wonder 1 and 2 seeds advanced the furthest each year, they’re by far the best teams in the field.
So more important than getting a 1 seed is having a team good enough to qualify for a 1 seed, even if this year that technically means falling on the 2 line due to the strength of the field.
Btw, we currently have a rating of +33.25, which means we’re currently rated higher than the average 1 seed in all but one of the past five seasons.
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