Week of 2/3 Bracketology

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#1      

Dan

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#3      
GrayGhost77
Dan said:
Illinois a 5 seed in the Bracket Matrix
bracketmatrix.com

Illinois #12 in the NET Rankings
www.ncaa.com

DI Men's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Men's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today Coaches poll and the NCAA NET Rankings.
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Big Ten Tournament Bracket Generator

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Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
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Let's win a bunch of games and get back to the 2-3 seed level. Please and thank-you.
 
#4      
Illini in Italy
GrayGhost77 said:
Let's win a bunch of games and get back to the 2-3 seed level. Please and thank-you.
Click to expand...
NO! Let's win them all and grab a 1 seed.

High Five Tom Cruise GIF by Hollywood Suite
 
#11      
Fighter of the Nightman
The good news is that if yesterday did serve as a necessary kick in the rear to maintain some true fire and momentum for this group, we have plenty of great opportunities remaining. As of this morning, these are our remaining games by Quad category:

Quad 1
2/5 at #75 Rutgers
2/11 vs. #28 UCLA
2/15 vs. #20 Michigan State
2/18 at #16 Wisconsin
2/22 vs. #2 Duke (New York, NY)
3/2 at #17 Michigan
3/7 vs. #10 Purdue

Quad 2
2/8 at #101 Minnesota
2/25 vs. #63 Iowa

So as of today, we would theoretically end up with 19 Quad 1 games before the BTT, which is wild. It's important for us to root for OSU to remain in the top 30, as that was a great Quad 1 pickup.

Also, I know some say the BTT results don't affect seeding (I strongly disagree with this, though we all acknowledge the result of the Championship on Sunday is too late to count unless a non-Bubble team wins it) ... but I always found this interesting to look at this time of year. If the BTT were tomorrow, these are how potential Big Ten opponents would be classified on a neutral court:

Quad 1 (1-50)
#10 Purdue
#12 Illinois
#15 Maryland
#16 Wisconsin
#17 Michigan
#20 Michigan State
#26 Ohio State
#28 UCLA
#37 Oregon
#50 Nebraska

Quad 2 (51-100)
#54 Penn State
#57 Northwestern
#63 Iowa
#65 Indiana
#68 USC
#75 Rutgers
#94 Washington

Quad 3 (101-200)
#101 Minnesota

So over 50% of the league is Quad 1, and 17 out of 18 teams are at least Quad 2 (with Minnesota being just one spot away from being Quad 2). That's a deep league.
 
#13      
Fighter of the Nightman
Putting aside potential one seed dreams and also acknowledging that each season is different, I find it helpful to keep these two seasons in mind - our #4 seed in 2022 and our #3 seed in 2024. Here was each resume on Selection Sunday:

2022: #4 Seed
22-9 overall record
#15 NET Ranking
#21 NET SOS
6-6 vs. Quad 1
6-3 vs. Quad 2
6-0 vs. Quad 3
4-0 vs. Quad 4
7-4 road record

2024: #3 Seed
26-8 overall record
#13 NET Ranking
#35 NET SOS
8-6 vs. Quad 1
6-1 vs. Quad 2
7-1 vs. Quad 3
5-0 vs. Quad 4
6-5 road record

And this is where our squad stands today...

2025: TBD Seed
15-7 overall record
#12 NET Ranking
#15 NET SOS
6-6 vs. Quad 1
3-1 vs. Quad 2
0-0 vs. Quad 3
6-0 vs. Quad 4
3-3 road record

... and our potential resume I tried to lay out in this post if we were to do the following:

1. Win out at home
2. Only drop two more games away from home - Duke at MSG and one of Wisconsin/Michigan on the road.
3. Advance to Sunday in the BTT.

2025: Optimistic Scenario
25-9 overall record
#7??? NET Ranking
#10??? NET SOS
13-8 vs. Quad 1
6-1 vs. Quad 2
0-0 vs. Quad 3
6-0 vs. Quad 4
6-4 road record

That is a damn good resume. No result by itself has REALLY hurt our resume that much, and our issue remains that we just simply cannot keep piling up losses. With that said, if this team can go on a winning streak that we ALL know they are capable of, our ceiling as far as seeding remains shockingly high for how we all felt after the Nebraska loss. This is an absolutely essential week with two road wins on the table before two Quad 1 opportunities at home next week. If we win our next 4 - which is just NOT that crazy if the effort is there and we build off of the second half vs. OSU - we are frankly right back on track for a very good seed and setting ourselves up for a true run in March. Let's go do it!!

P.S. When you look at our resume in 2022, I think it confirms my belief that if you are on the fence between seeds and you faceplant in your first BTT game, it DOES matter. That team could have easily finished as a #3 seed if it made it to Sunday of the BTT, as it would have picked up two more Quad 1 wins vs. Indiana and Iowa. Conversely, it seems decently likely that the 2024 team earned or at least solidified its #3 seed on those two days at the BTT. I understand the argument that the conference tournaments can't make that much of a difference and I certainly understand that Sunday's result effectively doesn't matter unless it's a placeholder for a champion that wasn't even on the Bubble, but it's clear to me that the pre-Sunday results indeed can be a "tiebreaker" of sorts between two teams being considered for the same seed line. Our 2006 team likely had a similar faceplant from a #3 seed down to a #4 seed by losing its first BTT game, and it likely cost us a Sweet Sixteen.
 
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#15      
Fighter of the Nightman
Illinialldayeveryday said:
Even if we play better down the stretch its going to be hard to catch Purdue, Sparty, and Michigan. Looks like most likely 4-7 for the BTT seed.
Click to expand...
FWIW, the "default" mode in the BTT seed generator updated for this weekend's results actually has us winning out ... so whoever made this thinks we are theoretically "favored" to do that. So if you leave it like that, this is how the seedings would turn out:

1. Purdue: 17-3
2. Michigan State: 17-3
3. Maryland: 15-5
4. Illinois: 15-5
5. Michigan: 13-7
6. UCLA: 13-7
7. Wisconsin: 13-7
8. Oregon: 11-9
9. Ohio State: 11-9
10. USC: 10-10
11. Nebraska: 9-11
12. Indiana: 7-13
13. Iowa: 6-14
14. Penn State: 6-14
15. Rutgers: 6-14

And (16) Northwestern, (17) Minnesota and (18) Washington miss out. Illinois' path would be the winner of (5) Michigan vs. (12) Indiana/(13) Iowa and then presumably (1) Purdue on Saturday.

However, I questioned some of those results and went through and came up with this instead:

1. Michigan State: 16-4
2. Michigan: 15-5
3. Purdue: 15-5
4. Maryland: 14-6
5. Illinois: 14-6
6. Wisconsin: 14-6
7. UCLA: 13-7
8. Oregon: 11-9
9. USC: 10-10
10. Nebraska: 9-11
11. Ohio State: 9-11
12. Indiana: 8-12
13. Rutgers: 8-12
14. Penn State: 6-14
15. Minnesota: 5-15

So we'd then play on Thursday vs. (12) Indiana/(13) Rutgers, with a rematch against (4) Maryland waiting on Friday if we win. We'd also be on track to collide with (1) Michigan State on Saturday.

All in all, I think you are right ... we'd need a lot of chips to fall our way to get higher than that #4 seed, which should be the goal so we can have that double bye. Thankfully, with an opportunity against Duke still on the table and SO many Quad 1 opportunities in the Big Ten, I am less concerned about our spot in the Big Ten standings and more concerned about getting a high enough NCAA Tournament seed that playing for another Final Four appearance is on the table!!
 
#16      
AyoDos11
Fighter of the Nightman said:
FWIW, the "default" mode in the BTT seed generator updated for this weekend's results actually has us winning out ... so whoever made this thinks we are theoretically "favored" to do that. So if you leave it like that, this is how the seedings would turn out:

1. Purdue: 17-3
2. Michigan State: 17-3
3. Maryland: 15-5
4. Illinois: 15-5
5. Michigan: 13-7
6. UCLA: 13-7
7. Wisconsin: 13-7
8. Oregon: 11-9
9. Ohio State: 11-9
10. USC: 10-10
11. Nebraska: 9-11
12. Indiana: 7-13
13. Iowa: 6-14
14. Penn State: 6-14
15. Rutgers: 6-14

And (16) Northwestern, (17) Minnesota and (18) Washington miss out. Illinois' path would be the winner of (5) Michigan vs. (12) Indiana/(13) Iowa and then presumably (1) Purdue on Saturday.

However, I questioned some of those results and went through and came up with this instead:

1. Michigan State: 16-4
2. Michigan: 15-5
3. Purdue: 15-5
4. Maryland: 14-6
5. Illinois: 14-6
6. Wisconsin: 14-6
7. UCLA: 13-7
8. Oregon: 11-9
9. USC: 10-10
10. Nebraska: 9-11
11. Ohio State: 9-11
12. Indiana: 8-12
13. Rutgers: 8-12
14. Penn State: 6-14
15. Minnesota: 5-15

So we'd then play on Thursday vs. (12) Indiana/(13) Rutgers, with a rematch against (4) Maryland waiting on Friday if we win. We'd also be on track to collide with (1) Michigan State on Saturday.

All in all, I think you are right ... we'd need a lot of chips to fall our way to get higher than that #4 seed, which should be the goal so we can have that double bye. Thankfully, with an opportunity against Duke still on the table and SO many Quad 1 opportunities in the Big Ten, I am less concerned about our spot in the Big Ten standings and more concerned about getting a high enough NCAA Tournament seed that playing for another Final Four appearance is on the table!!
Click to expand...
I like this one better:

1. Illinois (15-5)
2. Purdue (15-5)
3. Michigan St (15-5)
4. Michigan (14-6)
5. Maryland (14-6)
6. UCLA (14-6)
7. Wisconsin (14-6)
8. Ohio State (12-8)
9. Oregon (11-9)
10. USC (10-10)
11. Nebraska (10-10)
12. Indiana (7-13)
13. Iowa (6-14)
14. Penn State (6-14)
15. Rutgers (6-14)

-----
Side note: Right now there are three teams that we want to avoid being tied with in the standings at the end of the season. These would be the teams that we lost to and also don't play another game against to even the series. They are USC, Maryland, and Nebraska. Of those, I only really see Maryland finishing around our level (let's say the 13-15 win range). I would keep this in mind for future rooting interests.
 
#17      
fuggles
fwiw I think MSU will have 6 more losses and finish behind us, Purdue, and Maryland.
predicted losses
@ucla
@illinois
Purdue
@michigan
@maryland
and 1 more home game vs either Oregon, Michigan, Wisconsin
 
#18      
Fighter of the Nightman
Not a whole lot to add today, but it is kind of interesting to look at the top 24 in the NET Rankings (i.e., the "6-seeds on paper" or whatever), except ranked by the number of combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins:

#1 Auburn: 14 (12 Q1, 2 Q2)
#6 Alabama: 14 (6 Q1, 8 Q2)

#14 Texas A&M: 12 (7 Q1, 5 Q2)
#10 Purdue: 12 (6 Q1, 6 Q2)

#18 Marquette: 11 (5 Q1, 6 Q2)

#17 Wisconsin: 10 (6 Q1, 4 Q2)

#9 Iowa State: 9 (6 Q1, 3 Q2)
#12 Illinois: 9 (6 Q1, 3 Q2)
#2 Duke: 9 (5 Q1, 4 Q2)
#7 Kansas: 9 (5 Q1, 4 Q2)
#5 Florida: 9 (4 Q1, 5 Q2)

#20 Michigan State: 8 (5 Q1, 3 Q2)
#4 Tennessee: 8 (5 Q1, 3 Q2)
#23 Ole Miss: 8 (5 Q1, 3 Q2)
#16 Michigan: 8 (4 Q1, 4 Q2)
#3 Houston: 8 (3 Q1, 5 Q2)

#19 Kentucky: 7 (7 Q1, 0 Q2)
#15 Maryland: 7 (5 Q1, 2 Q2)
#11 Arizona: 7 (5 Q1, 2 Q2)
#21 Missouri: 7 (4 Q1, 3 Q2)
#22 Saint Mary's: 7 (3 Q1, 4 Q2)

#24 St. John's: 6 (1 Q1, 5 Q2)
#8 Texas Tech: 6 (4 Q1, 2 Q2)

#13 Gonzaga: 5 (2 Q1, 3 Q2)

Of note, none of these teams have a Quad 4 loss, and #9 Iowa State is the only one with a Quad 3 loss ... so let's pray USC remains top 75! We cannot afford that many more losses if we want a great seed, but we have a lot of good wins ... and of our 9 remaining games, 7 are currently Quad 1 and 2 are Quad 2. It's difficult to understate just how much a true hot streak to end the year would improve our resume even further.
 
#19      
ptgrd23
I really want double bye for BTT. Last year showed it was a big advantage. Other teams ran out of gas.
 
#20      
aaeismacgychel
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Putting aside potential one seed dreams and also acknowledging that each season is different, I find it helpful to keep these two seasons in mind - our #4 seed in 2022 and our #3 seed in 2024. Here was each resume on Selection Sunday:

2022: #4 Seed
22-9 overall record
#15 NET Ranking
#21 NET SOS
6-6 vs. Quad 1
6-3 vs. Quad 2
6-0 vs. Quad 3
4-0 vs. Quad 4
7-4 road record

2024: #3 Seed
26-8 overall record
#13 NET Ranking
#35 NET SOS
8-6 vs. Quad 1
6-1 vs. Quad 2
7-1 vs. Quad 3
5-0 vs. Quad 4
6-5 road record

And this is where our squad stands today...

2025: TBD Seed
15-7 overall record
#12 NET Ranking
#15 NET SOS
6-6 vs. Quad 1
3-1 vs. Quad 2
0-0 vs. Quad 3
6-0 vs. Quad 4
3-3 road record

... and our potential resume I tried to lay out in this post if we were to do the following:

1. Win out at home
2. Only drop two more games away from home - Duke at MSG and one of Wisconsin/Michigan on the road.
3. Advance to Sunday in the BTT.

2025: Optimistic Scenario
25-9 overall record
#7??? NET Ranking
#10??? NET SOS
13-8 vs. Quad 1
6-1 vs. Quad 2
0-0 vs. Quad 3
6-0 vs. Quad 4
6-4 road record

That is a damn good resume. No result by itself has REALLY hurt our resume that much, and our issue remains that we just simply cannot keep piling up losses. With that said, if this team can go on a winning streak that we ALL know they are capable of, our ceiling as far as seeding remains shockingly high for how we all felt after the Nebraska loss. This is an absolutely essential week with two road wins on the table before two Quad 1 opportunities at home next week. If we win our next 4 - which is just NOT that crazy if the effort is there and we build off of the second half vs. OSU - we are frankly right back on track for a very good seed and setting ourselves up for a true run in March. Let's go do it!!

P.S. When you look at our resume in 2022, I think it confirms my belief that if you are on the fence between seeds and you faceplant in your first BTT game, it DOES matter. That team could have easily finished as a #3 seed if it made it to Sunday of the BTT, as it would have picked up two more Quad 1 wins vs. Indiana and Iowa. Conversely, it seems decently likely that the 2024 team earned or at least solidified its #3 seed on those two days at the BTT. I understand the argument that the conference tournaments can't make that much of a difference and I certainly understand that Sunday's result effectively doesn't matter unless it's a placeholder for a champion that wasn't even on the Bubble, but it's clear to me that the pre-Sunday results indeed can be a "tiebreaker" of sorts between two teams being considered for the same seed line. Our 2006 team likely had a similar faceplant from a #3 seed down to a #4 seed by losing its first BTT game, and it likely cost us a Sweet Sixteen.
Click to expand...
One point- early BTT games definitely matter, and comments from the committee have been fairly unanimous in saying that pretty much every game of the BTT up to and including the Quarterfinals counts. The question there is how much those games mean as some members of the committee have said they count as much as any other game while others point to how a team ends a season (though recently there has been a lot less emphasis on the last X games a team plays)

After the Quarters though, it's very questionable. Based on comments from the past few years from committee members with regards to how other conference tournament title games are held, it seems they're largely ignored due to lack of time unless there would be a bid thief which would be a bid thief in last in out sort of thing. As such, while I used to think the results of the BTT might be included for specific corner cases like 2B10 teams with similar resumes, I now would be surprised if the Committee actually does it, and that make sense as the committee would have less than 24 hours to agree on a new bracket and get it ready for prime time:

So in summary:
BTT 1st Round: Matters, but none of these teams are making the tourney unless they get the auto bid
BTT 2nd Round: Extremely important for bubble teams and seeding.
BTT Quarters: Very important for bubble teams and last chance to improve seeding
BTT Semis: Of no importance for seeding, but maybe it might cement a bubble team as in the field?
BTT Finals: Doesn't matter unless you need the autobye to make the dance
 
#22      
Illwinsagain
aaeismacgychel said:
One point- early BTT games definitely matter, and comments from the committee have been fairly unanimous in saying that pretty much every game of the BTT up to and including the Quarterfinals counts. The question there is how much those games mean as some members of the committee have said they count as much as any other game while others point to how a team ends a season (though recently there has been a lot less emphasis on the last X games a team plays)

After the Quarters though, it's very questionable. Based on comments from the past few years from committee members with regards to how other conference tournament title games are held, it seems they're largely ignored due to lack of time unless there would be a bid thief which would be a bid thief in last in out sort of thing. As such, while I used to think the results of the BTT might be included for specific corner cases like 2B10 teams with similar resumes, I now would be surprised if the Committee actually does it, and that make sense as the committee would have less than 24 hours to agree on a new bracket and get it ready for prime time:

So in summary:
BTT 1st Round: Matters, but none of these teams are making the tourney unless they get the auto bid
BTT 2nd Round: Extremely important for bubble teams and seeding.
BTT Quarters: Very important for bubble teams and last chance to improve seeding
BTT Semis: Of no importance for seeding, but maybe it might cement a bubble team as in the field?
BTT Finals: Doesn't matter unless you need the autobye to make the dance
Click to expand...
I remember several years ago, the Badgers and the Illini had similar resumes and met in the finals of the BTT. Badgers won and got the better seed in Milwaukee, if memory serves properly. I know normally, it won't matter, but in this rare select case it did.
 
#23      
RollChief
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Not a whole lot to add today, but it is kind of interesting to look at the top 24 in the NET Rankings (i.e., the "6-seeds on paper" or whatever), except ranked by the number of combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins:

#1 Auburn: 14 (12 Q1, 2 Q2)
#6 Alabama: 14 (6 Q1, 8 Q2)

#14 Texas A&M: 12 (7 Q1, 5 Q2)
#10 Purdue: 12 (6 Q1, 6 Q2)

#18 Marquette: 11 (5 Q1, 6 Q2)

#17 Wisconsin: 10 (6 Q1, 4 Q2)

#9 Iowa State: 9 (6 Q1, 3 Q2)
#12 Illinois: 9 (6 Q1, 3 Q2)
#2 Duke: 9 (5 Q1, 4 Q2)
#7 Kansas: 9 (5 Q1, 4 Q2)
#5 Florida: 9 (4 Q1, 5 Q2)

#20 Michigan State: 8 (5 Q1, 3 Q2)
#4 Tennessee: 8 (5 Q1, 3 Q2)
#23 Ole Miss: 8 (5 Q1, 3 Q2)
#16 Michigan: 8 (4 Q1, 4 Q2)
#3 Houston: 8 (3 Q1, 5 Q2)

#19 Kentucky: 7 (7 Q1, 0 Q2)
#15 Maryland: 7 (5 Q1, 2 Q2)
#11 Arizona: 7 (5 Q1, 2 Q2)
#21 Missouri: 7 (4 Q1, 3 Q2)
#22 Saint Mary's: 7 (3 Q1, 4 Q2)

#24 St. John's: 6 (1 Q1, 5 Q2)
#8 Texas Tech: 6 (4 Q1, 2 Q2)

#13 Gonzaga: 5 (2 Q1, 3 Q2)

Of note, none of these teams have a Quad 4 loss, and #9 Iowa State is the only one with a Quad 3 loss ... so let's pray USC remains top 75! We cannot afford that many more losses if we want a great seed, but we have a lot of good wins ... and of our 9 remaining games, 7 are currently Quad 1 and 2 are Quad 2. It's difficult to understate just how much a true hot streak to end the year would improve our resume even further.
Click to expand...
I think USC is going to finish the season in a better than expected position... They've won 4 out of the last 6 and were only favored in 2 of those games. Eric Musselman came into the program in April and adopted a roster that was fully turned over. The roster is decent and they're the 35th oldest team in D-1.

This may be a hot take but they're a dark horse bubble team IMO. They're getting absolutely dragged down by a crappy Q3 loss to Cal at home. Wouldn't be shocked if they stole a few and ended the season at 19-12.
 
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