We really need to get on a streak
Week of 2/3 Bracketology
- Status
There's still 8 games left.
Its all about the end game now. Even if we play better down the stretch hard to see us winning enough to jump a few seed lines. There is just more losses coming. If we get the 4/5 I wouldn't hate Tennessee as the 1 seed. Or Florida. Would prefer no Auburn, Bama, or Duke.
Agreed. We already wrote ourselves out of the advantageous portion of the bracket.
We were the last 3 seed last year, and we earned it. But If i remember like 3 or 4 teams lost on the first day of their conf tourneys to even open the door.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Not really trying to make a point here, but I wanted to look at where some of our recent teams stood with 9 games remaining and where they ended up.
2020-21: NET Rankings on 2/5/2021
12-5 overall
#4 NET Ranking
6-4 vs. Quad 1
3-1 vs. Quad 2
1-0 vs. Quad 3
2-0 vs. Quad 4
#6 SOS Ranking
---> Finished 23-6, #3 NET, 12 Quad 1 wins and #1 Seed
2021-22: NET Rankings on 2/4/2022
16-5 overall
#14 NET Ranking
3-3 vs. Quad 1
5-2 vs. Quad 2
5-0 vs. Quad 3
3-0 vs. Quad 4
#28 SOS Ranking
---> Finished 22-9, #15 NET, 6 Quad 1 wins and #4 Seed
2022-23: NET Rankings on 2/3/2023
16-6 overall
#25 NET Ranking
3-5 vs. Quad 1
4-1 vs. Quad 2
3-0 vs. Quad 3
6-0 vs. Quad 4
#46 SOS Ranking
---> Finished 20-12, #34 NET, 2 Quad 1 wins and #9 Seed
2023-24: NET Rankings on 2/9/2024
17-5 overall
#13 NET Ranking
3-4 vs. Quad 1
4-0 vs. Quad 2
5-1 vs. Quad 3
5-0 vs. Quad 4
#56 SOS Ranking
---> Finished 26-8, #13 NET, 8 Quad 1 wins and #3 Seed
2024-25: NET Rankings on 2/5/2025
15-7 overall
#12 NET Ranking
6-6 vs. Quad 1
3-1 vs. Quad 2
0-0 vs. Quad 3
6-0 vs. Quad 4
#14 SOS Ranking
---> Who knows??
Looking at all of the years to where we are today...
- Our record is most comparable to the disappointing #9 seed 2023 team.
- Our NET Ranking is most comparable to last year's #3 seed team.
- Our Quad 1 wins are most comparable to our #1 seed 2021 team.
- Our Quad 2 wins are also most comparable to our #1 seed 2021 team.
- Our Quad 3 results are most comparable to nobody because we haven't played any Q3 teams.
- Our Quad 4 wins are comparable to all of these teams in that we don't have any Q4 losses.
- Our strength of schedule is between our #1 seed 2021 team and our #4 seed 2022 team ... but MUCH higher than the others.
The big difference this year between at least 2022, 2023 and 2024? We already have 6 Quad 1 wins, and we have 7 opportunities left. It obviously ALL depends on going on a hot streak now that we're healthy, but I'll repeat it for the thousandth time ... we should all be thanking our lucky starts that as of today our resume looks like it does with so many opportunities in front of us!
2020-21: NET Rankings on 2/5/2021
12-5 overall
#4 NET Ranking
6-4 vs. Quad 1
3-1 vs. Quad 2
1-0 vs. Quad 3
2-0 vs. Quad 4
#6 SOS Ranking
---> Finished 23-6, #3 NET, 12 Quad 1 wins and #1 Seed
2021-22: NET Rankings on 2/4/2022
16-5 overall
#14 NET Ranking
3-3 vs. Quad 1
5-2 vs. Quad 2
5-0 vs. Quad 3
3-0 vs. Quad 4
#28 SOS Ranking
---> Finished 22-9, #15 NET, 6 Quad 1 wins and #4 Seed
2022-23: NET Rankings on 2/3/2023
16-6 overall
#25 NET Ranking
3-5 vs. Quad 1
4-1 vs. Quad 2
3-0 vs. Quad 3
6-0 vs. Quad 4
#46 SOS Ranking
---> Finished 20-12, #34 NET, 2 Quad 1 wins and #9 Seed
2023-24: NET Rankings on 2/9/2024
17-5 overall
#13 NET Ranking
3-4 vs. Quad 1
4-0 vs. Quad 2
5-1 vs. Quad 3
5-0 vs. Quad 4
#56 SOS Ranking
---> Finished 26-8, #13 NET, 8 Quad 1 wins and #3 Seed
2024-25: NET Rankings on 2/5/2025
15-7 overall
#12 NET Ranking
6-6 vs. Quad 1
3-1 vs. Quad 2
0-0 vs. Quad 3
6-0 vs. Quad 4
#14 SOS Ranking
---> Who knows??
Looking at all of the years to where we are today...
- Our record is most comparable to the disappointing #9 seed 2023 team.
- Our NET Ranking is most comparable to last year's #3 seed team.
- Our Quad 1 wins are most comparable to our #1 seed 2021 team.
- Our Quad 2 wins are also most comparable to our #1 seed 2021 team.
- Our Quad 3 results are most comparable to nobody because we haven't played any Q3 teams.
- Our Quad 4 wins are comparable to all of these teams in that we don't have any Q4 losses.
- Our strength of schedule is between our #1 seed 2021 team and our #4 seed 2022 team ... but MUCH higher than the others.
The big difference this year between at least 2022, 2023 and 2024? We already have 6 Quad 1 wins, and we have 7 opportunities left. It obviously ALL depends on going on a hot streak now that we're healthy, but I'll repeat it for the thousandth time ... we should all be thanking our lucky starts that as of today our resume looks like it does with so many opportunities in front of us!
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Exactly this. I think the ceiling seed is likely around 3 right now (maybe a 2 if the team really gets rolling and finishes 8-1 regular season and deep BTT run), but I would be absolutely happy with a 4 or 5 seed. It would mean that the team has played solid basketball for the last month of the season with a couple of expected losses. For me at least, I want to ensure that the team has the most favorable matchup for the first weekend of the tournament, and this season, there is likely not much difference among facing teams in the 4/5/6 seed range in the second round. The real key will be playing well enough to avoid falling below the 5 seed (do not want to see a 2 or 3 seed in the second round). We are in the 5 seed area in most mock brackets, at this point. The goal needs to be maintaining this seed or improving slightly.
Get to the second weekend of the tournament and anything can happen. I personally do not care about facing a 1 seed in the S16 or E8, they will have to be beat anyway to get to the F4. We got a taste of the second weekend last year, and I think we would all crave another second weekend opportunity this year (if not third weekend). Therefore, seeding matters to optimize the chance to get out of the first weekend, but getting everyone healthy and playing good basketball down the stretch matter more.
I think 4 conference losses wins BIG outright, 5 losses will win a share.
I can give MSU 3 more losses easily just in games they won't be favored in (@UI, @MU, @UM). They still play Purdue, Wisconsin, and UM a second time.
Purdue is in better shape. They play @UM, @MSU, and @UI. They have 2 losses now, 5 is probably their ceiling on losses.
I'm not sold on Michigan, they don't have any great wins.
Illinois needs to stack some wins.
I can give MSU 3 more losses easily just in games they won't be favored in (@UI, @MU, @UM). They still play Purdue, Wisconsin, and UM a second time.
Purdue is in better shape. They play @UM, @MSU, and @UI. They have 2 losses now, 5 is probably their ceiling on losses.
I'm not sold on Michigan, they don't have any great wins.
Illinois needs to stack some wins.
Alright folks its time to have the talk. We aren't on the bubble yet...but its going to get fishy if we don't go 3-0 here and we haven't shown we can do that. Just a reminder I think Michigan state went into selection sunday with 14 losses and they were in the 8/9 game.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I do not think the team needs to go 3-0 over the next three games. Saturday is obviously a must win game, as it will likely fall in the quad 2 range. Win Saturday, and I think the team would need at least a split of the games vs UCLA and Michigan State. If Illini lose on Saturday, then the team will likely need to win both games next week, otherwise the team will probably be in free fall. I will say the team needs to go 2-1 over the next three games, and then win two of the remaining five games.
Based upon the overall strength of schedule this year for Illinois (so many quad 1 games compared to many other teams), the Illini likely only need to get about 4 more wins. I think the key will be winning the Minnesota and Iowa games (they are probably the only possible quad 2 games left). Win those two games and at least two of the other 6 games, then the team is likely safely in (regardless of performance in BTT). Losing either of the Minnesota/Iowa games might change the calculus a bit. The Illini are going to be ultimately propped up because of all the quad 1 opportunities.
Not exactly where I envisioned this team trending after dominating @Oregon on 1/2. This is not a lost year yet, but it is trending that direction if the coaching does not right the ship.
Yeah this is probably the most reasonable. Win Saturday. Win 1 next week. Beat Iowa and find one more. Even 10-10 in league probably avoids a play in.
On paper, we're in okay shape for a decent seed. It's not a lost year, but the team does not look like they have the consistency and chemistry to take us far at this point. Ultimately this is on Underwood and the concerning part is that he doesn't seem to take ownership of the issues we've all been seeing.
I think that we're getting a little carried away, which is completely understandable. That said, we're focusing on ourselves and not the rest of college basketball. There are a LOT of average teams out there. We won't be on the bubble, but the 8/9 game is probably where we're headed.
Yeah teams on the cut line are like Wake, UCF, UNC. To me its more about quantity of losses adding up.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
While we have better metrics this year, it just feels SO much like 2023 right now. Even at that team's low point of 9-5 (0-3) after the Northwestern loss on January 4, I STILL don't think there was much Bubble talk because people (A) still remembered recent big wins vs. #9 UCLA and #2 Texas and (B) thus assumed we'd eventually right the ship.
And while we were pretty much considered a "Tournament lock" for the rest of the season, we eventually just lost enough games to the point where we all came to and we were a #9 seed favored to lose our First Round game, lol. Maybe others felt differently, but I felt that there was this strange aura of denial where we didn't truly realize how close to a Bubble team we were as far as seeding goes.
The good news is this group has time to avoid that. The 2023 team was 16-6 two years ago entering February, and they finished 4-6 heading into Selection Sunday. We were 14-7 entering this February, and we are 1-1 since then, with 8 games remaining. If we keep up this 1-1 per week streak that seems to frankly be our character right now, we will indeed wind up close to the Bubble. The only reason we are "not on the Bubble" as of now, IMO, is that every evaluation of our resume has some kind of underlying assumption that we are better than we've looked lately. For computers, that is assuming our "body of work" is a fair picture of what kind of team we will finish as (i.e., our win vs. Oregon is an equal slice of the "Who are we?" pie as our loss at Nebraska). For subjective analysts, it's this belief that we HAVE to figure it out again eventually.
One thing is for sure, though ... in the last five games, we have ranged from looking like a solid 7 seed or so (NU win and second half of OSU) to looking like a team that shouldn't be sniffing the NIT (blowout loss to Maryland). We have not looked like a top 4 seed since the MSU loss at best and the Oregon win at worst (if you assume our "impressive" wins vs. PSU and Indiana have more to do with them being bad).
I think the divergence between how the predictive metrics like KenPom/Torvik/NET see us and what those of us that watch the games are seeing is interesting. I wish there was an easy way to isolate a period of time and see where we rank in those metrics over, say, the last 8 games to try and see if the underlying efficiency isn't as bad as it seems, or if our first 15 games were just so strong it's propping up what has regressed into a worse team. It's kind of hard to say right now.
You can do this on Torvik.
Through our first 15 games, we were ranked #4.
Over our last 8 games, we are ranked #39.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Ouch. Using an even simpler analysis, it's interesting to just look at our results vs. power conference teams during two stretches:
1) Starting with the Wisconsin win and through the PSU win. The Wisconsin win was seen as an impressive bounce back from the OT loss at Northwestern, and most were at least encouraged that we then took #1 Tennessee to the buzzer. Hype reached an apex after the Oregon win, followed by a "grind-it-out" road win at Washington and an incredibly impressive performance vs. PSU without KJ.
2) Starting with the USC loss and through the MSU loss. This was a bizarre up and down stretch. While some of the post-Oregon hype wore off with the USC loss, a lot of fans were able to rationalize that one because we had no KJ and because we responded by embarrassing Indiana the next game. And I think most of us felt we got hosed at MSU, yet only lost by two with KJ playing 8 total minutes. So, again, it was pretty easy to stay positive.
3) Starting with the Maryland loss up through today. Even shorthanded, the Maryland loss was an eye opener for many here that something could be wrong. Then the Nebraska loss REALLY got people concerned that we might be digging too deep of a hole. The win vs. OSU saved us from disaster mode, but then we followed it up by laying an egg at Rutgers.
Looking at those three stretches in chronological order is actually pretty horrifying, lol. You can just see that as Stretch #1 gets farther in the rearview mirror, our "body of work" gets worse and worse ... because we have gotten worse and worse. NET Rankings are based on today's rankings, not at the time of the game.
STRETCH #1: Wisconsin to Penn State
6-1 record
+13.7 average score margin (average score of 85.2 to 71.5)
#39 average opponent NET Ranking
Best win was vs. #16 at home
Worst loss was vs. #4 at home
STRETCH #2: USC to Michigan State
1-2 record
+4.3 average score margin (average score of 81.3 to 77.0)
#51 average opponent NET Ranking
Best win was vs. #63 away
Worst loss was vs. #68 at home
STRETCH #3: Maryland to Rutgers
2-3 record
-3.4 average score margin (average score of 77.6 to 81.0)
#43 average opponent NET Ranking
Best win was vs. #26 at home
Worst loss was vs. #71 away
And if you simply broke it up as before and after the USC loss...
STRETCH #1: Wisconsin to Penn State
6-1 record
+13.7 average score margin (average score of 85.2 to 71.5)
#39 average opponent NET Ranking
Best win was vs. #16 at home
Worst loss was vs. #4 at home
STRETCH #2: USC to Rutgers
3-5 record
-0.5 average score margin (average score of 79.0 to 79.5)
#46 average opponent NET Ranking
Best win was vs. #26 at home
Worst loss was vs. #71 away
So, since the PSU win ... we are scoring 6 fewer points per game, we are giving up 8 more points per game, we have a losing record and we are doing it all vs. slightly worse competition. That's regression.
You are not wrong but stretch 2 has had injuries, sickness, etc. Again they aren't playing good but some of it is bad luck. We have also lost 2 games in the last minute in Sparty and Tennessee and 2 OT games. I guess you could argue we won the washington/mizzou close games but for the most part we were winning those games and hung on. Our kenpom luck is 330 which suggests just average luck would have us at 2 more big ten wins, and we all feel a lot better. Gotta fight through it.
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
This entire thread . . .
I don't think it's premature to think they can recover and get a good seed, and I don't think it's premature to think they could tank and be staring at the bubble. Right now they're not playing well, and in particular not shooting well, which is kind of important
A month ago, I wouldn't have thought this team could have a losing stretch and now I'm not sure about any game.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
The main reason why I am still optimistic with this team is that they don't ever seem to quit. They could have very easily given up @Nebraska and @Rutgers after digging double-digit holes. In both of those games they battled back to either tie or take lead. Now they lost both of those games, but the fact that they kept battling is a good sign.I don't think it's premature to think they can recover and get a good seed, and I don't think it's premature to think they could tank and be staring at the bubble. Right now they're not playing well, and in particular not shooting well, which is kind of important
A month ago, I wouldn't have thought this team could have a losing stretch and now I'm not sure about any game.
Shooting is also very contagious. Right now they can't buy a bucket from distance, so it is like quick sand for them taking 3's. I think they need to reestablish getting buckets closer to basket (they were doing against OSU second half and major stretches of comeback vs Rutgers before running out of gas and chucking up 3's). Seeing the ball go through the hoop might raise some confidence for the shooters. I for one do not care about taking a lot of 3's as a general strategy; however, if the ball is not going into the basket, then the strategy needs to change. We are at that point right now. Run sets to get high percentage 2's, and eventually the 3's will fall.
It is really up to coaching right now to right the ship.
That bubble is extra bubblelicious so far.I don't think it's premature to think they can recover and get a good seed, and I don't think it's premature to think they could tank and be staring at the bubble. Right now they're not playing well, and in particular not shooting well, which is kind of important
A month ago, I wouldn't have thought this team could have a losing stretch and now I'm not sure about any game.
Out of the teams receiving votes, the following teams lost this week and predominantly against lesser competition:
Clemson, St. Mary's, Oregon (free falling), Vanderbilt, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma.
We're stuck in a 20-30th purgatory even if we suffer a couple more upsets.
Yeah most brackets updated still have us a 6.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
That's a very fair point, to be sure. And I had another pretty data-oriented response typed out, but sometimes I think something more subjective is actually more effective. I still you can place a clear line at the Maryland loss where something psychologically just started to seem REALLY off. So limiting it to this calendar year and breaking it up in pre- and post-Maryland stretches...
January 1 - January 22
- Team at full strength and we were "on" that day? We were the type of team that could win Quad 1 road games by the scores of 109-77 or 94-69.
- Team at full strength but we had to fight through some adversity and in-game challenges? We were still the type of team that would grind out a road win at Quad 2 Washington or take Quad 1 Michigan State down to the wire in East Lansing with our best player out for 80% of the game.
- Team not at full strength?? Might have a total fluke Quad 2 loss to USC without KJ, but we also got our largest victory margin over a Big Ten team in over 20 years vs. Quad 2 Penn State.
What do those same three "types" of games look like in the games since Maryland??
January 23 - February 7
- Team at full strength and we were "on" that day? I'm not even sure this HAPPENS anymore, but let's be super generous and count the second half vs. Ohio State ... we look more like a solid #5 seed.
- Team at full strength but we faced some hiccups and had to fight through it? I guess this is like our second half Fake Comeback™ at Rutgers? The type of play you'd expect from a #7-10 seed, IMO.
- Team not at full strength?? Oh boy ... the absolute pinnacle was the first half against Northwestern, I guess, but it is so heavily outweighed by abysmal stretches like Nebraska and the first half vs. Rutgers. NIT at best type of play.
TL;DR
What concerns me is that the resiliency has almost entirely disappeared, and you can't blame that on injuries ... that's effort. Our full strength (since the first half of Ohio State) performances aren't even approaching how well (or at LEAST as competently!!!!) we used to play shorthanded. This team has CERTAINLY been unlucky ... that's not debatable. The problem is that with each new dud of a performance mixed in with the decent ones, a clearer and clearer trend starts to emerge of regressing.
- Status