Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Anyway, for those interested, here is our updated resume and remaining games in that same Quad format. I'll preface this with the same thing I said before the Rutgers loss ... there are still many opportunities in front of this team for resume-improving wins - WAY more than a team like 2023 had. The reason for pessimism has come more from the fact that we are not playing like a team that can string together consecutive wins, not that all is lost on paper.
OVERALL RESUME
15-8 overall record
#14 NET Ranking
#14 strength of schedule
6-7 Quad 1 record
3-1 Quad 2 record
0-0 Quad 3 record
6-0 Quad 4 record
RESULTS & UPCOMING GAMES BY QUAD
Quad 1
L 64-66 vs. #4 Tennessee
L 87-100 vs. #6 Alabama (Birmingham, AL)
W 86-80 vs. #15 Wisconsin
L 71-90 vs. #16 Maryland
W 80-77 vs. #18 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
L 78-80 at #21 Michigan State
W 87-79 vs. #25 Ohio State
W 109-77 at #35 Oregon
W 90-77 vs. #44 Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
L 74-80 in OT at #49 Nebraska
L 66-70 in OT at #55 Northwestern
W 94-69 at #63 Indiana
L 73-82 at #71 Rutgers
vs. #2 Duke (New York, NY)
vs. #10 Purdue
at #15 Wisconsin
at #17 Michigan
vs. #21 Michigan State
vs. #26 UCLA
Quad 2
W 83-74 vs. #55 Northwestern
W 91-52 vs. #60 Penn State
L 72-82 vs. #68 USC
W 81-77 at #99 Washington
vs. #65 Iowa
at #95 Minnesota
Quad 3
Quad 4
W 92-34 vs. #204 Little Rock
W 66-54 vs. #216 Oakland
W 90-58 vs. #221 SIU Edwardsville
W 112-67 vs. #330 Eastern Illinois
W 117-64 vs. #354 Chicago State
W 87-40 vs. #362 Maryland Eastern Shore
So ... let's start with the reasons to be pessimistic...
1. We just have been playing poorly, period, and we are about to head into a stretch of games vs. opponents who simply outclass the likes of Nebraska or Rutgers. If we are going to shoot poorly, we absolutely cannot combine it with turnovers. If we are going to be plagued by both, we DEFINITELY can't also have slow starts. Put simply, the way we have played lately is going to cause us to PILE on losses over the next few weeks...
2. We are piling up too many losses! We are staring at going 1-1 for four weeks in a row even IF we win at Minnesota tomorrow! That's simply unacceptable. If that pattern holds - against BETTER competition coming up, mind you! - we would be 19-12 before the BTT ... NOT great, Bob!
3. Some of our results are/will likely be fragile. We don't have a "bad loss" today, but there is absolutely no guarantee that USC remains in the top 75. Additionally, if we drop one at Minnesota tomorrow, #71 Rutgers ends up outside of the top 75, #44 Arkansas ends up outside of the top 50 and #25 Ohio State ends up outside of the top 30 ... all of a sudden our resume is filled with way more Quad 2 results, including multiple losses.
4. Not that we have lit it up in the House of 'Paign this year, but 3 of our 6 remaining Quad 1 opportunities are away from home. Will need to find our "good Illini" FAST before trips to Madison and Ann Arbor, let alone Duke at MSG.
Reasons to at least be SOMEWHAT positive...
1. We still have a good NET Ranking and a good strength of schedule, and both will continue to improve IF we can start stacking wins. Obviously, if my aforementioned "1-1 every week" scenario (let alone something even worse) happens, none of that will matter.
2. We have PROVEN that we can be really good. This isn't like waiting and hoping for a team that's struggled from day one to figure it out; we have won 6 Quad 1 games, and 4 of those 6 were away from home. Of our 7 Quad 1 losses, 4 were either in overtime or by one possession. The tools are there, period. It's not a hypothetical! Sans Duke, there is not a team left on the schedule that is of a caliber that we have not either beaten (e.g., Oregon, Wisconsin) or proved we COULD beat in a hypothetical rematch (e.g., Tennessee or MSU).
3. As previously stated, ASSUMING we can get out of this funk and play to our potential, the opportunities in front of us are the types of wins that can quite truly redefine a resume. 8 games left, with 6 being Quad 1 and the other 2 being Quad 2. In 2023 at this time, we had already dug a deep enough hole that even a hot streak could only do so much because the potential wins in front of us just weren't going to move the needle as much.
4. Sorry for the longer one, lol. If our effort and mental focus can get back on track, I just HAVE to believe that our 3-point shooting will normalize. It just simply has to, again IF we cure whatever psychologically ails this team. Look at our 3-point percentage chronologically since January 1:
>40.0%
30.0% to 39.9%
25.0% to 29.9%
<25.0%
1/2 - 55.2% at #35 Oregon
1/5 - 19.2% at #99 Washington
1/8 - 32.3% vs. #60 Penn State (no KJ)
1/11 - 21.9% vs. #68 USC (no KJ)
1/14 - 34.4% at #63 Indiana
1/19 - 20.8% at #21 Michigan State (no KJ for 80% of game)
1/23 - 21.4% vs. #16 Maryland (no Ivisic)
1/26 - 28.1% vs. #55 Northwestern (no Ivisic)
1/30 - 23.8% at #49 Nebraska (no Ivisic)
2/2 - 20.0% vs. #25 Ohio State
2/5 - 21.4% at #71 Rutgers
It's fine to "accept" that we are a bad 3-point shooting team or even a bad shooting team overall, but we aren't even mixing our 30%+ games in with the 20% dud performances anymore. Players only hit themselves out of slumps when they get their heads right, and that's obviously what we need to do ... but if we do that, the shots HAVE to start falling at a normal rate again, at least from time to time. Having KJ (our best 3-point shooter right now) and Ivisc (helps to space the floor and free up shots) back just simply NEEDS to lead to performances of hitting closer to 30% of them. I mean sure, 55%+ vs. Oregon is abnormal ... but is 32% vs. PSU or 34% at Indiana that crazy? Hell, what about just the 28% vs. Northwestern?! I'll run the numbers in another thread, but what does this season look like if we just hit at least 25% of our threes every game? Keep in mind that hitting those threes takes pressure off getting to the hoop, too. I'd say we certainly win at Nebraska, and we probably beat Rutgers. Going forward, if we can just hit a (still quite pathetic) 25% of our 3-pointers and play smart, there can be a lot of wins on the table.
OVERALL RESUME
15-8 overall record
#14 NET Ranking
#14 strength of schedule
6-7 Quad 1 record
3-1 Quad 2 record
0-0 Quad 3 record
6-0 Quad 4 record
RESULTS & UPCOMING GAMES BY QUAD
Quad 1
L 64-66 vs. #4 Tennessee
L 87-100 vs. #6 Alabama (Birmingham, AL)
W 86-80 vs. #15 Wisconsin
L 71-90 vs. #16 Maryland
W 80-77 vs. #18 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
L 78-80 at #21 Michigan State
W 87-79 vs. #25 Ohio State
W 109-77 at #35 Oregon
W 90-77 vs. #44 Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
L 74-80 in OT at #49 Nebraska
L 66-70 in OT at #55 Northwestern
W 94-69 at #63 Indiana
L 73-82 at #71 Rutgers
vs. #2 Duke (New York, NY)
vs. #10 Purdue
at #15 Wisconsin
at #17 Michigan
vs. #21 Michigan State
vs. #26 UCLA
Quad 2
W 83-74 vs. #55 Northwestern
W 91-52 vs. #60 Penn State
L 72-82 vs. #68 USC
W 81-77 at #99 Washington
vs. #65 Iowa
at #95 Minnesota
Quad 3
Quad 4
W 92-34 vs. #204 Little Rock
W 66-54 vs. #216 Oakland
W 90-58 vs. #221 SIU Edwardsville
W 112-67 vs. #330 Eastern Illinois
W 117-64 vs. #354 Chicago State
W 87-40 vs. #362 Maryland Eastern Shore
So ... let's start with the reasons to be pessimistic...
1. We just have been playing poorly, period, and we are about to head into a stretch of games vs. opponents who simply outclass the likes of Nebraska or Rutgers. If we are going to shoot poorly, we absolutely cannot combine it with turnovers. If we are going to be plagued by both, we DEFINITELY can't also have slow starts. Put simply, the way we have played lately is going to cause us to PILE on losses over the next few weeks...
2. We are piling up too many losses! We are staring at going 1-1 for four weeks in a row even IF we win at Minnesota tomorrow! That's simply unacceptable. If that pattern holds - against BETTER competition coming up, mind you! - we would be 19-12 before the BTT ... NOT great, Bob!
3. Some of our results are/will likely be fragile. We don't have a "bad loss" today, but there is absolutely no guarantee that USC remains in the top 75. Additionally, if we drop one at Minnesota tomorrow, #71 Rutgers ends up outside of the top 75, #44 Arkansas ends up outside of the top 50 and #25 Ohio State ends up outside of the top 30 ... all of a sudden our resume is filled with way more Quad 2 results, including multiple losses.
4. Not that we have lit it up in the House of 'Paign this year, but 3 of our 6 remaining Quad 1 opportunities are away from home. Will need to find our "good Illini" FAST before trips to Madison and Ann Arbor, let alone Duke at MSG.
Reasons to at least be SOMEWHAT positive...
1. We still have a good NET Ranking and a good strength of schedule, and both will continue to improve IF we can start stacking wins. Obviously, if my aforementioned "1-1 every week" scenario (let alone something even worse) happens, none of that will matter.
2. We have PROVEN that we can be really good. This isn't like waiting and hoping for a team that's struggled from day one to figure it out; we have won 6 Quad 1 games, and 4 of those 6 were away from home. Of our 7 Quad 1 losses, 4 were either in overtime or by one possession. The tools are there, period. It's not a hypothetical! Sans Duke, there is not a team left on the schedule that is of a caliber that we have not either beaten (e.g., Oregon, Wisconsin) or proved we COULD beat in a hypothetical rematch (e.g., Tennessee or MSU).
3. As previously stated, ASSUMING we can get out of this funk and play to our potential, the opportunities in front of us are the types of wins that can quite truly redefine a resume. 8 games left, with 6 being Quad 1 and the other 2 being Quad 2. In 2023 at this time, we had already dug a deep enough hole that even a hot streak could only do so much because the potential wins in front of us just weren't going to move the needle as much.
4. Sorry for the longer one, lol. If our effort and mental focus can get back on track, I just HAVE to believe that our 3-point shooting will normalize. It just simply has to, again IF we cure whatever psychologically ails this team. Look at our 3-point percentage chronologically since January 1:
>40.0%
30.0% to 39.9%
25.0% to 29.9%
<25.0%
1/2 - 55.2% at #35 Oregon
1/5 - 19.2% at #99 Washington
1/8 - 32.3% vs. #60 Penn State (no KJ)
1/11 - 21.9% vs. #68 USC (no KJ)
1/14 - 34.4% at #63 Indiana
1/19 - 20.8% at #21 Michigan State (no KJ for 80% of game)
1/23 - 21.4% vs. #16 Maryland (no Ivisic)
1/26 - 28.1% vs. #55 Northwestern (no Ivisic)
1/30 - 23.8% at #49 Nebraska (no Ivisic)
2/2 - 20.0% vs. #25 Ohio State
2/5 - 21.4% at #71 Rutgers
It's fine to "accept" that we are a bad 3-point shooting team or even a bad shooting team overall, but we aren't even mixing our 30%+ games in with the 20% dud performances anymore. Players only hit themselves out of slumps when they get their heads right, and that's obviously what we need to do ... but if we do that, the shots HAVE to start falling at a normal rate again, at least from time to time. Having KJ (our best 3-point shooter right now) and Ivisc (helps to space the floor and free up shots) back just simply NEEDS to lead to performances of hitting closer to 30% of them. I mean sure, 55%+ vs. Oregon is abnormal ... but is 32% vs. PSU or 34% at Indiana that crazy? Hell, what about just the 28% vs. Northwestern?! I'll run the numbers in another thread, but what does this season look like if we just hit at least 25% of our threes every game? Keep in mind that hitting those threes takes pressure off getting to the hoop, too. I'd say we certainly win at Nebraska, and we probably beat Rutgers. Going forward, if we can just hit a (still quite pathetic) 25% of our 3-pointers and play smart, there can be a lot of wins on the table.
