Week of 2/9 Bracketology

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#2      
James Mcavoy Success GIF
 
#4      
Illinois a 2 seed in the Bracket Matrix
bracketmatrix.com
I seem to recall that this would mean that the NCAA would put us in a different regional than Michigan. Would we also be on the other side of the bracket from them?

With there being five B1G teams in the top eleven, would they put the fourth and fifth B1G teams in the same regional, and spread the top three among the other three regionals?

I would look it up, but I expect somebody out there would be happy to share his (or her!) expert knowledge.
 
#5      
Does anyone not agree that if we don't win out and win a couple games in the conference tournament, we won't sniff a one seed? I know our composites are good but with Kansas emergence and Houston playing as well as they are, seems like margin of error is even more skewed. Appreciate a little feedback on this one. Looking at some these pollsters rankings makes me sick. Someone actually has N.C. ahead of us. Unbelievable.
 
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#6      
Does anyone not agree that if we don't win out and win a couple games in the conference tournament, we won't sniff a one seed? I know our composites are good but with Kansas emergence and Houston playing as well as they are, seems like margin of error is even more skewed. Appreciate a little feedback on this one. Looking at some these pollsters rankings makes me sick. Someone actually has N.C. ahead of us. Unbelievable.
About the only thing I am sure of is that polls don't matter where seeding is concerned.
 
#7      
Other than being placed in Chicago, the #1 vs. #2 or even #3 seed is like that 6-7 🤷‍♂️ phenomenon that I don’t quite understand.
Sure, I’m hoping for a #1 seed because that means we will have finished strong. But this team has been so tough on the road and has been so battle-tested that I believe they can beat any team anywhere.
 
#8      
Other than being placed in Chicago, the #1 vs. #2 or even #3 seed is like that 6-7 🤷‍♂️ phenomenon that I don’t quite understand.
Sure, I’m hoping for a #1 seed because that means we will have finished strong. But this team has been so tough on the road and has been so battle-tested that I believe they can beat any team anywhere.
I will say this on every bracketology thread: Seeding matters, but it is more about location and matchups. When we got the one seed a few years back, we got a very unfavorable matchup for a 1 seed in the second round. We had a much more favorable draw as the 3 seed a couple years ago during the E8 run.

The hope has to be somehow getting the draw where we would be in Chicago for second weekend (assuming the team eins the first two games in tourney).
 
#9      
I will say this on every bracketology thread: Seeding matters, but it is more about location and matchups. When we got the one seed a few years back, we got a very unfavorable matchup for a 1 seed in the second round. We had a much more favorable draw as the 3 seed a couple years ago during the E8 run.

The hope has to be somehow getting the draw where we would be in Chicago for second weekend (assuming the team eins the first two games in tourney).
I agree, but it's worth pointing out that of the three variables mentioned, we...

(1) At least know a lot about what a #1/2/3 seed would be like on paper, given historical results and the setup of the bracket.
(2) Can speculate at least somewhat about location, given the rules about where Big Ten teams can be placed and where we presume each protected seed would prefer to be.
(3) Can really not speculate much at all about matchups until we get the bracket.

So I think a lot might agree that a #3 seed path similar to our 2024 path in Chicago would be more attractive than a #1 seed path similar to our 2021 path in Houston. However, all we really have to speculate on right now is the seed line and location. And given the somewhat unique nature of the top 10-15 teams this year and the specific obstacle of Michigan, I am guessing we know a lot more this year about what a #1/2/3 seed would mean for where we get placed.

In other words, if you take the attitude that the matchups are a total unknown, I think I would prefer a #2 seed in Chicago over a #1 seed in Houston, but it sounds like that is super unlikely without a string of Michigan losses. If we can't win out, I suppose it would not be the worst thing in the world for Nebraska to end up a higher #2 seed than us, allowing us to be a #2 in Chicago...
 
#10      
I agree, but it's worth pointing out that of the three variables mentioned, we...

(1) At least know a lot about what a #1/2/3 seed would be like on paper, given historical results and the setup of the bracket.
(2) Can speculate at least somewhat about location, given the rules about where Big Ten teams can be placed and where we presume each protected seed would prefer to be.
(3) Can really not speculate much at all about matchups until we get the bracket.

So I think a lot might agree that a #3 seed path similar to our 2024 path in Chicago would be more attractive than a #1 seed path similar to our 2021 path in Houston. However, all we really have to speculate on right now is the seed line and location. And given the somewhat unique nature of the top 10-15 teams this year and the specific obstacle of Michigan, I am guessing we know a lot more this year about what a #1/2/3 seed would mean for where we get placed.

In other words, if you take the attitude that the matchups are a total unknown, I think I would prefer a #2 seed in Chicago over a #1 seed in Houston, but it sounds like that is super unlikely without a string of Michigan losses. If we can't win out, I suppose it would not be the worst thing in the world for Nebraska to end up a higher #2 seed than us, allowing us to be a #2 in Chicago...
You can start to speculate a little on our 2/3 seed partner. It’s likely a B12 team because all the current 2-3 seeds are mostly big ten and B12 teams that can’t be seeded with each other. Thats where the Kansas 2-3 partner is worst case scenario to me.

That may be the biggest impact of getting to a 1 seed anywhere - the 4s if Florida move up look like a sizeable drop in talent looking at teams like Virginia
 
#11      
I agree, but it's worth pointing out that of the three variables mentioned, we...

(1) At least know a lot about what a #1/2/3 seed would be like on paper, given historical results and the setup of the bracket.
(2) Can speculate at least somewhat about location, given the rules about where Big Ten teams can be placed and where we presume each protected seed would prefer to be.
(3) Can really not speculate much at all about matchups until we get the bracket.

So I think a lot might agree that a #3 seed path similar to our 2024 path in Chicago would be more attractive than a #1 seed path similar to our 2021 path in Houston. However, all we really have to speculate on right now is the seed line and location. And given the somewhat unique nature of the top 10-15 teams this year and the specific obstacle of Michigan, I am guessing we know a lot more this year about what a #1/2/3 seed would mean for where we get placed.

In other words, if you take the attitude that the matchups are a total unknown, I think I would prefer a #2 seed in Chicago over a #1 seed in Houston, but it sounds like that is super unlikely without a string of Michigan losses. If we can't win out, I suppose it would not be the worst thing in the world for Nebraska to end up a higher #2 seed than us, allowing us to be a #2 in Chicago...
So one thing to note is that the committee attempts to put Top 4 seeds from the same conference in different brackets. So if Michigan were to get the 1 seed in the Midwest, the only way we could possibly get to Chicago is falling to the #5 team in the B10 (i.e. Michigan, Nebraska, MSU, and Purdue all have higher seeds). Really, our best shot at getting Chicago is either being the top team in the B10 and not having Chicago taken by anyone ahead of us on our seed line. Or hoping whoever wins the B10 does not get the Midwest regional (i.e. Michigan gets the 4th 1 seed and is forced to Houston because the Midwest 1 is already filled, and we're say the 1st 2 seed).

This is also where Iowa State gets interesting in whether they'd prefer Houston or Chicago. If they're on our seed line and ahead of us, they could also snipe Chicago, especially if Houston gets the Houston region.

Right now there are a lot of teams on the first three seed lines that would have Chicago as either a 1st or 2nd choice location, so going to be heavy competition for that Midwest bracket.

1. Arizona- West1, Houston2
2. Michigan- Chicago 1, B10 comp (big obstacle)
3. Duke- DC1, Chicago2
4. UCONN - DC1, Chicago2
5. Houston- Houston1, Chicago2?
6. Iowa State- Houston1?, Chicago2?
7. Illinois- Chicago1
8. Nebraska- Chicago1, Houston2, B10 comp
9. Purdue- Chicago1, DC2?, B10 comp
10. Kansas- Houston1, Chicago2
11. MSU- Chicago1, DC2, B10 comp
12. Florida- DC1, Houston2

So of the Top 12 teams right now, 5 have Chicago as a 1st choice, and another 5 have Chicago as a 2nd choice based on my estimation. That's a ton of competition. That said, 1 Top 4 B10 team will get the Midwest. Going to need some luck on our side along with performance.
 
#12      
After this past week/weekend of games (and losses), it seems like the 1 seed is ours to lose at this point.

Find a list below of each team by Net Rank. We're currently 4. I've paired this with a few other stats from KenPom.The variable abbreviations below mean:

ARKpRk: Average Remaining KenPom Rank
Top10Rem: KP top 10 teams remaining on schedule
WinOut%: Percentage chance of winning out, according to KP
ProjW/L:
Projected W/L, according to KP

I know it may seem inconsistent to use both NET Rank and KenPom in compiling this, but at this point KenPom and NET are pretty close, and at the end of the day KenPom stats are easier to work with.

1770749443741.png


Out of the list above, we have the 3rd-easiest remaining SOS, and the 3rd most likely to win out. The two in front of us, Gonzaga and UConn, are in weak leagues (this year), and if they lose one more, then they will almost certainly not be given a one-seed.

Arizona, Iowa St and Houston (plus Kansas) are going to cannibalize each other, so as long as ISU or Houston don't go on heaters and win out, then I think we can afford at least 1 remaining loss and get a one seed.

The current NET Rankings are a testament to how important quality wins are and how much quality losses don't necessarily hurt you down the stretch.
 
#13      
We should have waxed that team. We werent ready to play and made no in game adjustments...period, end of story! Its the NCAA tournament, strap up, put your big boy pants on and play like your life depended on it, or go home.
 
#18      
This will be very interesting to see, especially since it will be right before two Quad 1A opportunities for us (UCLA that night and Michigan on February 27). IIRC, some of these releases have contained some surprises in the past, and I think it's a super cool midseason indication of how the Committee is looking at things. If we are pleasantly surprised with where we sit in this top 16 reveal and we are able to knock off UCLA and Michigan ... the hype train will be back rolling at full speed!
 
#19      
I'll do an update on the metrics bracket today once I'm not buried at work.
I feel you, brother! Really wanted to do some real Loyalty posting today, though I certainly couldn't formulate my own bracket! :ROFLMAO: What I did want to look at quickly is if any of our borderline wins/losses/future opponents were close to changing Quad classifications. A few brief notes below based on today's NET Rankings.

- #18 Texas Tech remains frustratingly close to getting into the top 15 and thus becoming another Quad 1A win for us.
- Both #21 Tennessee and #23 Alabama are a loss or two from losing their Quad 1A status, as neutral site opponents must be top 25. I think it's much more important we keep the Quad 1A win vs. Tennessee than keep our loss to Alabama as Quad 1A rather than simply Quad 1.
- #33 Indiana keeps flirting with being a Quad 1 opponent in Champaign by virtue of sneaking into the top 30. Personally, I think we should count on this one being Quad 2 by the end of the year.
- #38 UCLA is a Quad 1A game for us for now. It will be safely Quad 1 no matter what, but it would be great if the Bruins could remain top 40 and give us another potential top tier win.
- #39 Ohio State is two spots from dropping out of the top 40 and making our win in Columbus merely Quad 1 rather than Quad 1A. Go Buckeyes.
- #61 Missouri always leaves me with just a glimmer of hope that they'll sneak into the top 50 by Selection Sunday and make Braggin' Rights Quad 1. However, I think they'll bounce around from #55 to #75 and never really be close to being anything other than Quad 2.
- #77 Northwestern is REALLY doing us no favors given we are chained by the ankle to play them twice each year. NU in the top 75 immediately gives us an extra Quad 1 and extra Quad 2 win. This shift alone is one of the more important ones on the list, IMO, as we played them twice.
 
#22      
View attachment 47410
lunardi’s most recent bracket. seems about right… st. louis in st. louis and then one of the hottest team in the country as a 3 seed
I'll still say, I want absolutely nothing to do with St. Louis this year. The only thing killing their metrics this year is their weak overall schedule and they have struggled at times with ball pressure and doubles where they're prone to turning the ball over via steal. They are an exceptional shooting team from both 3 and 2. Absolutely exceptional. They have 4 3pt shooters who hit at over 40%, led by a 48.6% high volume 3 shooter, for reference, that's freshman Jamar Smith at even higher volume. If you aren't able to force them into turnovers, or force them off the 3pt line into a tall big, you're in some big trouble. I can easily see that team making a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 run. Let it be to someone who isn't us. St. Louis is probably the most vomit inducing 2nd round matchup any high ranked team could ask for.
 
#23      
After this past week/weekend of games (and losses), it seems like the 1 seed is ours to lose at this point.

Find a list below of each team by Net Rank. We're currently 4. I've paired this with a few other stats from KenPom.The variable abbreviations below mean:

ARKpRk: Average Remaining KenPom Rank
Top10Rem: KP top 10 teams remaining on schedule
WinOut%: Percentage chance of winning out, according to KP
ProjW/L:
Projected W/L, according to KP

I know it may seem inconsistent to use both NET Rank and KenPom in compiling this, but at this point KenPom and NET are pretty close, and at the end of the day KenPom stats are easier to work with.

View attachment 47399

Out of the list above, we have the 3rd-easiest remaining SOS, and the 3rd most likely to win out. The two in front of us, Gonzaga and UConn, are in weak leagues (this year), and if they lose one more, then they will almost certainly not be given a one-seed.

Arizona, Iowa St and Houston (plus Kansas) are going to cannibalize each other, so as long as ISU or Houston don't go on heaters and win out, then I think we can afford at least 1 remaining loss and get a one seed.

The current NET Rankings are a testament to how important quality wins are and how much quality losses don't necessarily hurt you down the stretch.
It was ours to lose
 
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