After this past week/weekend of games (and losses), it seems like the 1 seed is ours to lose at this point.
Find a list below of each team by Net Rank. We're currently 4. I've paired this with a few other stats from KenPom.The variable abbreviations below mean:
ARKpRk: Average Remaining KenPom Rank
Top10Rem: KP top 10 teams remaining on schedule
WinOut%: Percentage chance of winning out, according to KP
ProjW/L: Projected W/L, according to KP
I know it may seem inconsistent to use both NET Rank and KenPom in compiling this, but at this point KenPom and NET are pretty close, and at the end of the day KenPom stats are easier to work with.
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Out of the list above, we have the 3rd-easiest remaining SOS, and the 3rd most likely to win out. The two in front of us, Gonzaga and UConn, are in weak leagues (this year), and if they lose one more, then they will almost certainly not be given a one-seed.
Arizona, Iowa St and Houston (plus Kansas) are going to cannibalize each other, so as long as ISU or Houston don't go on heaters and win out, then I think we can afford at least 1 remaining loss and get a one seed.
The current NET Rankings are a testament to how important quality wins are and how much quality losses don't necessarily hurt you down the stretch.